Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
7 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Straw is probably somewhere in the 29-30 ft/s range.  He was allegedly over 30 ft/s in his first couple of attempts (per Kaplan) but he's currently listed at 29 ft/s (between 5-10 attempts) on baseballsavant.

Lunhow was quoted as saying he's the second fastest player in all of MLB.  At least that's the answer his minions got when they programmed it into the WOPR

 

wopr.jpg

  • Like 1
Posted
10 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Straw is probably somewhere in the 29-30 ft/s range.  He was allegedly over 30 ft/s in his first couple of attempts (per Kaplan) but he's currently listed at 29 ft/s (between 5-10 attempts) on baseballsavant.

He's my cousin. I'll ask where he ranks Straw.

  • Like 2
Posted
14 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:


McHugh and Smith

As a fan, James is more exciting though

Didn't Hinch make a comment that we brought on Smith specifically to deal with the Yankees?  Maybe James makes the roster this series and Smith takes the spot if we move on and play the Yankees?

Posted

Smith was brought in as a roogy, but he's been pretty disappointing.  We'll probably still see him though if the Astros make the ALCS given what they paid for him.

Posted

I really want speed (Straw) and velocity (James) on the playoff roster. I know it's a lot of pressure for inexperienced youth, but this team has swag and I believe it would carry over.

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Smith was brought in as a roogy, but he's been pretty disappointing.  We'll probably still see him though if the Astros make the ALCS given what they paid for him.

He's been bad 2 of the last 3 outings, but before that he had a 1.04 ERA with a 35 to 6 K/BB ratio over 42 appearances from May 5 through September 17.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
Posted

His FIP/xFIP for this season are both above his steamer projections, which aren't great to begin with, and far worse than his numbers last year.  I think they might have tried the 'Astros way' on him for some reason as he's exchanged quite a few sinkers for four-seamers this season, which has blown up his FB% without leading to an increase in swinging strikes (his K% is actually much worse this year).  His velocity is down by around 1-1.5 mph from last year, which may explain why there hasn't been any upside (and only downside) to his change in pitch mix.  

Posted
41 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

His FIP/xFIP for this season are both above his steamer projections, which aren't great to begin with, and far worse than his numbers last year.  I think they might have tried the 'Astros way' on him for some reason as he's exchanged quite a few sinkers for four-seamers this season, which has blown up his FB% without leading to an increase in swinging strikes (his K% is actually much worse this year).  His velocity is down by around 1-1.5 mph from last year, which may explain why there hasn't been any upside (and only downside) to his change in pitch mix.  

I mean this is cool and all, but for four and a half months he gave up 16 hits and 4 runs in 34.2 innings with a .434 OPS against.  Maybe the underlying stats say it was luck or something, but on the field he was REALLY good.

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean this is cool and all, but for four and a half months he gave up 16 hits and 4 runs in 34.2 innings with a .434 OPS against.  Maybe the underlying stats say it was luck or something, but on the field he was REALLY good.

How many balls in play do you think it takes for a pitcher's BABIP skill to outweigh pure luck?  For instance, if a pitcher allows zero hits on five total balls put into play, obviously we cannot draw any conclusions from that sample about that pitcher's BABIP skill as with such a small sample the result (.000 BABIP against) is almost entirely due to luck, right? In other words, based off that evidence alone, we would not expect the pitcher to maintain a near zero BABIP moving forward.  However, over the course of a pitcher's career, if he allows 3,000 hits on 10,000 balls put into play, then we could feel comfortable saying that his .300 BABIP against is largely respective of his particular skill.  

Where do you think the tipping point in BIP sample size where we can say that a pitcher's skill outweighs the luck involved?  50 BIP? 100 BIP? 500 BIP?  The answer is important when evaluating the salience of Smith's 16 hits yielded in 34.2 innings stat you cite.

Edited by Fozzz
Posted
5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

How many balls in play do you think it takes for a pitcher's BABIP skill to outweigh pure luck?  For instance, if a pitcher allows zero hits on five total balls put into play, obviously we cannot draw any conclusions from that sample about that pitcher's BABIP skill as with such a small sample the result (.000 BABIP against) is almost entirely due to luck, right? In other words, based off that evidence alone, we would not expect the pitcher to maintain a near zero BABIP moving forward.  However, over the course of a pitcher's career, if he allows 3,000 hits on 10,000 balls put into play, then we could feel comfortable saying that his .300 BABIP against is largely respective of his particular skill.  

Where do you think the tipping point in BIP sample size where we can say that a pitcher's skill outweighs the luck involved?  50 BIP? 100 BIP? 500 BIP?  The answer is important when evaluating the salience of Smith's 16 hits yielded in 34.2 innings stat you cite.

You will get no disagreement from me that these metrics are all important when trying to predict future performance.  But they are just noise when analyzing the past.  For the vast majority of the season, he was very, very good.  I will not argue that his metrics point to potential playoff disappointment, I was merely arguing the point that he has been "disappointing" this season.  Unless you placed some prop bet on his advanced metrics, his results were unarguably very good for the vast majority of the season.

Posted
1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

He's been bad 2 of the last 3 outings, but before that he had a 1.04 ERA with a 35 to 6 K/BB ratio over 42 appearances from May 5 through September 17.

Yeah, he started off like shit then straightened up.  I was starting to come around on the guy and didn't panic before he came in.  Then he had his last couple of appearances and went back to being shit.

Same with Harris, but kind of in the opposite direction.  Harris has been great lately after being shit before that.  I just hope Hinch and the guys can see into the future and figure out which one isn't going to pull a 2017 playoffs Giles on us.  Leave that one at home and bring the other one along for the ride.

Posted

Nah, Harris has been solid all year.  Think he will get the pick given his ability against LHH unless Hinch wants someone who can go multiple innings (James).  

Posted

Rondon is solid but against a lefty heavy lineup and a limited number of relievers I can see why they went with a multi inning guy in James and Harris with his opposite hitter friendly pitch mix.  

Posted
Just now, Fozzz said:

Rondon is solid but against a lefty heavy lineup and a limited number of relievers I can see why they went with a multi inning guy in James and Harris with his opposite hitter friendly pitch mix.  

Oh yeah, it absolutely makes sense strategically.  Just pretty ballsy to leave off your most frequently used reliever.  (And second most, in Peacock.)

Posted
Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Oh yeah, it absolutely makes sense strategically.  Just pretty ballsy to leave off your most frequently used reliever.  (And second most, in Peacock.)

I like Peacock a little more than Rondon but his velo has been falling off the past month or so, which is concerning.

Posted
LMJ on mlb radio right meow

LMJ bday was Oct 2nd. Correa set up a bday party to Drake. Alot of guys went.

 

Excited to help team however. BP is best position for him to help team after the injury. They had one shot to get him right for playoffs and thankfully everything went well.

 

Comfortable with his stuff and coming in any situation. Will head out to BP 4th or 5th inning and immediately start throwing to get warm. Also told Hinch to treat him just like rest of the guys and if he needs him immediately then he will be ready.

 

Comparing seasons....alot of same players. Think we got better in offseason. Everyone still hungry.

 

Asked about Bregman. He said Nregman cancelled on the Drake concert the other day. Last night around 11pm he hit up guys on the team letting them know he was heading to stadium to get some cage hacks in if anyone wanted to join

 

  • Like 1
Posted

i didnt see rondong being left off the roster, but can see why. I'm assuming we're going with 4 SP with JV, Cole, DK, and CFM?  Bregman didnt call me to take some hacks, but whatever. Boys, I can't fucking wait.

....soon....

Posted
16 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

 


7
Osuna, Rondon, Pressly, Sipp are locks. LMJ as well it would appear

So 2 more among McHugh, Peacock, Devo, Smith, Harris, James.

 

 

3 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

It's Harris and James. Straw made it too.

 

So, only 6?

Posted
4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Counting is hard. Osuna, Pressly, LMJ, McHugh, James, Harris and Sipp

Dude look at the tweet that was quoted.  McHugh was left off and it is only 6 guys.  He is going by what was posted.  Chill out.  

Posted
Dude look at the tweet that was quoted.  McHugh was left off and it is only 6 guys.  He is going by what was posted.  Chill out.  

Gotcha. Tweet wasn’t embedded in Tapa and link was broken because tweet had been deleted.
  • Like 1
Posted
27 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:


Gotcha. Tweet wasn’t embedded in Tapa and link was broken because tweet had been deleted.

Yeah, that’s why I posted A.J’s quote. Reading is hard. 😉

Posted

I've been thinking that Rondon maybe should be the odd man out but that they wouldn't do it because he was the big money FA this offseason

Posted

I know the competition has improved significantly and bullpens can be fickle, but damn 2017 looks so ugly against what was announced today:

2017 ALDS
Devo
Giles
Gregerson
Harris
Peacock
Musgrove
Liriano

Verlander
Keuchel
LMJ
Morton


2018 ALDS
Osuna
Pressly
Harris
James
McHugh
Sipp
LMJ

Verlander
Cole
Keuchel
Morton

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...