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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

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Hook'Em0608

Hook'Em0608 96

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I get it, but the injury component cannot be ignored. Volume matters and the adding stats are relevant in the conversation. If you could have Lindor, Bogaerts, SImmons, or Correa for the next 3.5 seasons, how would you rank your desire? It's subjective, but I'd go Lindor, Simmons, Bogaerts, Correa in that order. Correa is going to continue to handle himself with kid gloves in order to reach the next contract, and the other guys seem fine as replacements with either elite skills or better durability.

Across the landscape of the game, I'm glad we have Correa as a core member and our shortstop, but I don't view him as a the unquestionably best shortstop in the game. Seager's injury and future health have me feeling the same way about him, hence me not ranking him as a top 4 guy I'd want at SS.

I wouldn't take a single one of them over Correa. He's still just a fucking kid, and already a champion. Shit, Lindor slumped most all of last year himself, and he's the only one of those I put in Correa's stratosphere. Mostly because he is also elite defensively. Simmons couldn't even hit the damn ball when he was Correa's age. Bogaerts is worse offensively and defensively than Correa. Lindor is his only real competition IMO. But it appears to me he has fallen in love with the long ball. When he has the skill set to be an Altuve like hitter which is more valuable IMO. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62785

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Just now, Hook'Em0608 said:

I wouldn't take a single one of them over Correa. He's still just a fucking kid, and already a champion. Shit, Lindor slumped most all of last year himself, and he's the only one of those I put in Correa's stratosphere. Mostly because he is also elite defensively. Simmons couldn't even hit the damn ball when he was Correa's age. Bogaerts is worse offensively and defensively than Correa. Lindor is his only real competition IMO. But it appears to me he has fallen in love with the long ball. When he has the skill set to be an Altuve like hitter which is more valuable IMO. 

It's a subjective discussion, so I'm fine with you not agreeing at all. I don't really care about the prior years, but the go-forward with what I referenced. Simmons was a terrible offensive performer, and now he isn't, so the past with him is irrelevant to me. Bogaerts is in the same neighborhood as Correa and more durable. Lindor didn't slump last year, so I don't follow that argument. He's a demonstrably better player than Correa this year and he's not about to miss 40 games in the fat part of his schedule. He's tons more durable. 

It's simple, if you like a guy because he's a year younger and marginally better than someone else on the non-counting stats, love Correa to death. If durability and counting stats matter, Correa isn't a top 3 shortstop in baseball. I fall into the latter category and I'm also sick of reading and hearing about how he and his crew, Boras included, think he's going to be worth $400million. I don't see him playing a complete year before his time is up with the Astros, so I plan on laughing a lot when he has to "settle" for something well inside of $200. 

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Hook'Em0608

Hook'Em0608 96

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3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's a subjective discussion, so I'm fine with you not agreeing at all. I don't really care about the prior years, but the go-forward with what I referenced. Simmons was a terrible offensive performer, and now he isn't, so the past with him is irrelevant to me. Bogaerts is in the same neighborhood as Correa and more durable. Lindor didn't slump last year, so I don't follow that argument. He's a demonstrably better player than Correa this year and he's not about to miss 40 games in the fat part of his schedule. He's tons more durable. 

It's simple, if you like a guy because he's a year younger and marginally better than someone else on the non-counting stats, love Correa to death. If durability and counting stats matter, Correa isn't a top 3 shortstop in baseball. I fall into the latter category and I'm also sick of reading and hearing about how he and his crew, Boras included, think he's going to be worth $400million. I don't see him playing a complete year before his time is up with the Astros, so I plan on laughing a lot when he has to "settle" for something well inside of $200. 

Lindor was hitting under .270 the vast majority of last season. So similar to Correa this year so far. Even still, Correa is a 1.9 WAR player right now. That is like 5th best in baseball at SS. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Simmons was a terrible offensive performer, and now he isn't, so the past with him is irrelevant to me.

You can't just toss out Simmons' thousands of mediocre PA in favor of a couple hundred where he's been good simply because those are the most recent.  Marwin's 2017 season and his regression this year is an example of why that's a bad idea.  

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62785

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2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

You can't just toss out Simmons' thousands of mediocre PAs in favor of a couple hundred where he's been good simply because those are the most recent.  Marwin's 2017 season and his regression this year is an obvious example of why that's a bad idea.  

Simmons is the undisputed best defensive SS in the game. He had an entire year last year in which he performed well above average offensively for the position in addition to the gold glove defense. He has entered his prime years. The remainder of this year plus the next 3 are his prime period and he's hitting his stride. I would trade that for Correa's next 3.5 right now, largely based on the premise that I think you're getting 75% of games with Correa and 95% of games with Simmons. 

Edit, given that AS is now on the DL with an ankle problem and no scheduled return date, I'd be neutral on having him vs. Correa. As of today, AS is 3.3 WAR on the year vs. Correa's 1.9 and both are out indefinitely.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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He hit well for an SS last year, but only a couple points (wRC+) above league average, and he's projected to be a league average hitter moving forward.  Also, aging curves have been shifting downward with players today typically entering their prime in their mid 20s and declining in their late 20s, so age is favoring Correa.  I won't deny that Simmons is a better defensive SS than Correa, but you also have to keep in mind that the defensive stats currently available (DRS and UZR) don't do a good job of handling shifts (which the Astros do far more than anyone else), which jacks with Correa's defensive value.  

Last July FG put out their list of the 50 players with the most projected trade value.  Guess who was #1?

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8086

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

This Correa discussion is beyond absurd. He is one of the top young stars in the league and we’re lucky to have him.
 

What's so absurd about the discussion? Correa was an overall No. 1 draft pick and obviously has been a key player on a title team, despite his youth. No one here is making him sound like a spare, because he's anything but. That said, he hasn't been too durable, and he hasn't made big strides on offense. These are our concerns, dude. Feel free to show us where his stats cast him in an unfairly bad light.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9523

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This Correa talk is interesting, but bullpen talk not going away...
From the Athletic yesterday.
Thought this was a good summary of the arguments here
His conclusion: our bullpen is still really good, and maybe a bit unlucky so far this year, although not without its flaws (earth-shattering conclusion, I know)



What to make of an Astros bullpen that at times is every bit as good as it is bad

It’s a dialetheism that would make a robot’s circuits explode. Both of the following sentences are true: The Astros bullpen has been extremely good. The Astros bullpen has been extremely bad.

Spend enough time around someone who follows the Astros and you will arrive at this logical conundrum pretty quickly. One says the bullpen is holding the team back as Houston aims for another World Series championship. The other says the bullpen just has run into some bad luck but it has been very good.

Both are right. Both are wrong.

The Astros have played 62 games through June 5; almost 40% of their season. They have a historically potent starting rotation, a young and uber talented lineup and are on a 98-win pace (or 100 if you look at Fangraphs’ projected standings, see image below).



So why does it feel like things are falling apart in Houston?

It all depends on which numbers you look at and how you look at them.

For example: A pitcher’s number one job is run prevention, right? If we look at the Astros bullpen’s overall ERA, Houston has been very good. As of right now, it has the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League and the fourth-lowest in baseball. The Astros prevent runs with the best of them.

But, if you believe a bullpen’s job is to prevent runs when it really counts — in those high leverage situations — then you could argue that the Astros have been terrible. Fangraphs has a Clutch stat that measures how well players perform in high leverage situations. Anywhere from 1 to -1 is average. The Astros bullpen has been off-the-charts bad at -2.78. That’s well, well below the next closest team.

When a reliever comes into a game, the unspoken expectation is a quick 1-2-3 inning. Anything less than that feels like a disappointment. And if the reliever does give up a hit, it had better be a weak blooper so that no runs score. Well, the easiest way to do that is to not walk anyone, strike everyone out and never give up home runs. Luckily, we have a stat for that. FIP is a measurement of pitcher success that only takes those three things into account.

The lowest bullpen FIP in baseball belongs to the Astros at 2.87.

Ok. So, if the Astros are preventing walks and home runs while striking lots of guys out; they should be dominating, right? Fangraphs has a stat for that, too. A shutdown is exactly what it sounds like. If a reliever comes in and shuts down the opposing lineup when his team really needs him (i.e. a high leverage situation) he earns a shutdown.

The Astros have 36 shutdowns, good for dead last in the major leagues. Granted, the Astros bullpen has thrown the fewest innings on account of Houston’s strong rotation, but this is disconcerting.

Ah ha! you say. The bullpen must be giving up lots of other hits. That would explain the low FIP and the lack of shutdowns. That could be true, except that the Astros bullpen has the fourth-lowest wOBA in baseball this year.

Ok. Then they must be allowing all of their inherited runners to score.

Nope. 78.2% strand rate. sixth-best in baseball.

***

The test I have come up with for myself to judge whether a bullpen is good or not is to see how many other teams would wholesale swap bullpens with the team at which I’m examining. In the Astros case, there are three, maybe four teams that would not take on the Astros entire bullpen in a heartbeat (Yankees, Brewers, Mariners, Red Sox). I mean, Houston has two guys (Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh) coming out of the bullpen who would be No. 3 starters for just about any other team.

For all that has been made of Ken Giles, his lack of strikeouts and the disappearance of his wipeout slider, I still believe in him as an above-average reliever. He is not going to sport a 57.5% strand rate all year (league average is 73.8%). His 2.06 FIP puts him in the top 20 of all relievers and suggests that he has simply run into some tough luck.

For more individual breakdowns of the bullpen, read Jake Kaplan’s piece here.

Overall, I tend to lean more towards the bad luck camp than the doomsday approach some have in evaluating the Astros bullpen. As discussed previously, anything less than a 1-2-3 inning feels like a disappointment and the Astros simply have not had a lot of shutdown outings so far. The despair also has been increased by the way the Astros have blown some leads lately, including being walked-off twice in one week, by Cleveland and New York.

If Houston had a 10-game lead in the division, I don’t think the bullpen would be as big of a talking point, but through June 5 the Astros were looking up at the Seattle Mariners, who occupied what felt like Houston’s God-given first-place slot heading into the season.

The Astros will surely look to improve their weaknesses as the trade deadline approaches, and they may very well add another bullpen piece, possibly another lefty, although Tony Sipp is having his best season in three years.

It’s a long season. There are going to be blown leads and tough losses, but the Astros have too much talent on the big league roster — not to mention top prospects in Forrest Whitely, Francis Martes, Cionel Perez, Corbin Martin, and David Paulino — to be overly concerned just yet with the bullpen

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62785

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30 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

Ballsy, going with a 8 man line-up

The fact that Jake Marisnick is not only still on the team but getting regular playing time tells me that the entire organization thinks that if they just keep trotting out the same shit as last year, eventually everything will just "click" and fall into place. Championship winners fall into this trap in every sport unless the coach and the management are truly special. Gurriel batting clean-up is another example of the same folly. Bilicheck, Saban, Golden State, these are the rarities and we're witnessing them at their peak at the same time. They change and modify as necessary to maintain their perch at the top. I had zero hope that Hinch was similar, but I'd convinced myself that Luhnow was.

Yuri Gurriel is hitting clean-up with 1 HR and 21 RBIs. I know he had a wrist injury, but that's proof that the excuses may be legitimate, but they are not improving the situation. He should be hitting fucking 8th every night until he shows some strength returning.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

The fact that Jake Marisnick is not only still on the team but getting regular playing time tells me that the entire organization thinks that if they just keep trotting out the same shit as last year, eventually everything will just "click" and fall into place. Championship winners fall into this trap in every sport unless the coach and the management are truly special. Gurriel batting clean-up is another example of the same folly. Bilicheck, Saban, Golden State, these are the rarities and we're witnessing them at their peak at the same time. They change and modify as necessary to maintain their perch at the top. I had zero hope that Hinch was similar, but I'd convinced myself that Luhnow was.

Yuri Gurriel is hitting clean-up with 1 HR and 21 RBIs. I know he had a wrist injury, but that's proof that the excuses may be legitimate, but they are not improving the situation. He should be hitting fucking 8th every night until he shows some strength returning.

i typically don't come at things like this the way i'm going to, but yuli needs to see fastballs, and he needs to hit with guys on base.  i don't give a shit what his current hr/rbi totals are.  mixing him up down near the bottom of the order would be doom for a guy with his plate discipline.  if our lineup was clicking like it was last year, sure, maybe hit him 6-7th.  but it ain't.  he should be hitting 5th (not 4th) but correa is out.

also, are we done with the whole hitting reddick 2 (vs righties) and moving bregs down?  i know that's counterintuitive with the way he's drawing walks, but man it sure felt like the lineup was longer when he hit 6th.

spring-reddick-tuve-correa-yuli-bregs-gattis-mccann-kemp (or marwin) is a lineup i can get behind against a righty.  if it's a lefty, get stassi in there, bregs back to 2, and sort the rest out.  move gattis to 6th probably.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10522

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Nah, I generally like ctj and he's definitely not a utgrad sock.  That being said, the other option (Reddick) has been no better against LHP than Marisnick and Jake is a better fielder.  

My point is that this team is the WSC and has the 4th best record in the majors. True, our starting pitching has carried us so far but our hitting will get better. Maybe not to last year’s level but good enough to contend. Reading this thread would make you think we’re the Rangers. Let’s get rid of everyone who hasn’t performed at the last at bat or hitter faced. Bunch of fucking day traders.
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ckhorn

ckhorn 208

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8 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I get it, but the injury component cannot be ignored. Volume matters and the adding stats are relevant in the conversation. If you could have Lindor, Bogaerts, SImmons, or Correa for the next 3.5 seasons, how would you rank your desire? It's subjective, but I'd go Lindor, Simmons, Bogaerts, Correa in that order. Correa is going to continue to handle himself with kid gloves in order to reach the next contract, and the other guys seem fine as replacements with either elite skills or better durability.

Across the landscape of the game, I'm glad we have Correa as a core member and our shortstop, but I don't view him as a the unquestionably best shortstop in the game. Seager's injury and future health have me feeling the same way about him, hence me not ranking him as a top 4 guy I'd want at SS.

CTJ goin CTJ. The only one in his league is Lindor. So what do you want to do or who do you want to trade him for?Bogaerts? Simmons? BAHAHA. He is once in a generation type talent. Let's give him a few more years before we start comparing him IDK Stanton and he making over 30mill a year.

Also, you might want to check the injury history on all off the above with the exception of Lindor.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10522

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My point is that this team is the WSC and has the 4th best record in the majors. True, our starting pitching has carried us so far but our hitting will get better. Maybe not to last year’s level but good enough to contend. Statistically, we’re at in the top half, if not top 20% in everything. Starting pitching, bullpen, hitting and fielding. Reading this thread would make you think we’re the Rangers. Let’s get rid of everyone who hasn’t performed at the last at bat or hitter faced. Bunch of fucking day traders.

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