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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

Planet Houston

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TexArcher
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Bregs is going Crawford Boxes right here.

ERhine
ERhine

Prior to the footage being edited by Bender:

wesleywest
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Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027. Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No gue

henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted

if giles isn't closing, he should be coming in for the 6th or 7th, or games that we're trailing.  i have no interest in seeing him get passed over one day but then come in the next day when it's "save adjacent".  you can't do that to the biggest headcase in our bullpen.  honestly, if he's not the closer anymore, i'd almost rather see him in aaa trying to work on striking guys out again, to give him some potential value in oct.

how in the world do we have 3 of the most dominant right-handed strikeout guys in baseball on one staff yet giles' k numbers somehow go way down?  mind-bottling. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

Posted
Posted
Spoiler

The Astros have hit it big with high school players -- Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, and top prospects Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley -- so it was a bit of a surprise to see them go so conservative this year, with one high school player in the first 34 rounds. (Their 35th pick was Alex Bregman's little brother, A.J.) They gutted their amateur scouting staff after last season and chose to scout fewer players, using internal models to determine which players to see and consider for the draft.

Keith Law's brief analysis of AL drafts is up...thought this was interesting about the Astros scouting approach...I'd read a bit about this, but didn't realize the robots were taking over to this extent. Something interesting is going on, perhaps, as they almost entirely selected college players (in addition to the blurb above).

Law didn't say much about Beer, other than he's a classic/old-school "Moneyball" guy and sees him as a DH only, but with enough power/approach that he was worth a first round pick. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

if giles isn't closing, he should be coming in for the 6th or 7th, or games that we're trailing.  i have no interest in seeing him get passed over one day but then come in the next day when it's "save adjacent".  you can't do that to the biggest headcase in our bullpen.  honestly, if he's not the closer anymore, i'd almost rather see him in aaa trying to work on striking guys out again, to give him some potential value in oct.

how in the world do we have 3 of the most dominant right-handed strikeout guys in baseball on one staff yet giles' k numbers somehow go way down?  mind-bottling. 

For whatever reason, he's throwing his fastball more this year which has like half the swinging strike rate of his slider.  The swinging strike rate for each of his pitches hasn't really changed from last year.

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Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:
  Reveal hidden contents

The Astros have hit it big with high school players -- Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, and top prospects Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley -- so it was a bit of a surprise to see them go so conservative this year, with one high school player in the first 34 rounds. (Their 35th pick was Alex Bregman's little brother, A.J.) They gutted their amateur scouting staff after last season and chose to scout fewer players, using internal models to determine which players to see and consider for the draft.

Keith Law's brief analysis of AL drafts is up...thought this was interesting about the Astros scouting approach...I'd read a bit about this, but didn't realize the robots were taking over to this extent. Something interesting is going on, perhaps, as they almost entirely selected college players (in addition to the blurb above).

Law didn't say much about Beer, other than he's a classic/old-school "Moneyball" guy and sees him as a DH only, but with enough power/approach that he was worth a first round pick. 

Luhnow seems better at his job than Law.

 

Just sayin...

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BornOrange

BornOrange 1441

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

if giles isn't closing, he should be coming in for the 6th or 7th, or games that we're trailing.  i have no interest in seeing him get passed over one day but then come in the next day when it's "save adjacent".  you can't do that to the biggest headcase in our bullpen.  honestly, if he's not the closer anymore, i'd almost rather see him in aaa trying to work on striking guys out again, to give him some potential value in oct.

No, Giles just needs to be a fucking professional. He shouldn't care if it is a "save situation" or not. Every appearance is one that the team needs him at his best. 

If he can't perform without the pressure of a "save situation" tell him that the starting pitcher,  Bregman, and Reddick get to kick him in the balls once for every run he gives up. Every appearance now becomes a "save your balls situation".

11 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

how in the world do we have 3 of the most dominant right-handed strikeout guys in baseball on one staff yet giles' k numbers somehow go way down?  mind-bottling. 

All three (Verlander, Cole, Morton) have shown an openness and humility that enabled them to buy in to the Astros pitching philosophy.

Giles has expressed that he doesn't really listen to anybody's advice and that he knows himself better than anyone.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, BornOrange said:

No, Giles just needs to be a fucking professional. He shouldn't care if it is a "save situation" or not. Every appearance is one that the team needs him at his best. 

If he can't perform without the pressure of a "save situation" tell him that the starting pitcher,  Bregman, and Reddick get to kick him in the balls once for every run he gives up. Every appearance now becomes a "save your balls situation".

i'm not saying you're right or wrong, but giles is far from the first closer who has stumbled in non-save situations while being good to great when a save is on the line.  closers are like kickers.  their success often has little to do with their talent.

expecting giles to "change" is not realistic.  we just need to figure out what he is and use him accordingly.

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BornOrange

BornOrange 1441

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Where did Giles say that?

It was last season, either during a pre-game show or the weekly "Bases Loaded" type show.

I remember thinking at the time "Wow, that explains a lot of things!"

I was hoping that his problems from last post-season made him more open to constructive criticism, because he has obvious talent, but it doesn't seem there has been a change.

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BornOrange

BornOrange 1441

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

expecting giles to "change" is not realistic.  we just need to figure out what he is and use him accordingly.

Expecting him to change on his own is definitely not realistic. Hinch needs to give him some incentive to change.

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ScottishHorn

ScottishHorn 172

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i'm not saying you're right or wrong, but giles is far from the first closer who has stumbled in non-save situations while being good to great when a save is on the line.  closers are like kickers.  their success often has little to do with their talent.

expecting giles to "change" is not realistic.  we just need to figure out what he is and use him accordingly.

Giles is typically bad in all situations...save, mid relief, mop up.  He has pitched one solid inning against the Yankees I think.  He looked dominant.  I thought that game might have turned the corner for him.  He comes in the very next game, gets rocked and hits himself in the face.  He is too big a head case to ever be successful unless he gets professional help

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14468

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:
  Reveal hidden contents

The Astros have hit it big with high school players -- Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, and top prospects Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley -- so it was a bit of a surprise to see them go so conservative this year, with one high school player in the first 34 rounds. (Their 35th pick was Alex Bregman's little brother, A.J.) They gutted their amateur scouting staff after last season and chose to scout fewer players, using internal models to determine which players to see and consider for the draft.

Keith Law's brief analysis of AL drafts is up...thought this was interesting about the Astros scouting approach...I'd read a bit about this, but didn't realize the robots were taking over to this extent. Something interesting is going on, perhaps, as they almost entirely selected college players (in addition to the blurb above).

Law didn't say much about Beer, other than he's a classic/old-school "Moneyball" guy and sees him as a DH only, but with enough power/approach that he was worth a first round pick. 

It really does appear the org punted on this draft, though Beer is a typical Luhnow college pick. Good bat, can't field a lick. Beer is probably somewhere between Reed and former Luhnow pick Matt Adams. Hopefully closer to Adams.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14468

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, kevwun said:

I just wish they would get rid of him at the earliest opportunity.  They can't find a role for him and it creates more problems than it's worth.

He should be traded in any deal that brings back bullpen help. He needs a new start outside Houston it appears. If Milwaukee was willing, I'd swap him for Knebel.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

It really does appear the org punted on this draft, though Beer is a typical Luhnow college pick. Good bat, can't field a lick. Beer is probably somewhere between Reed and former Luhnow pick Matt Adams. Hopefully closer to Adams.

i could totally be misreading the situation, but drafting almost exclusively college guys (closer to being mlb ready) almost seems like we're trying to stock up on trade chips and organizational depth, since our core is so young (including tucker, whitley, etc).  these days, with international signing included, there are so many ways to build your team, it almost seems like luhnow just wanted to know what he was getting in this draft.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9375

Posted
Posted

I can’t believe I’m taking the time to post this but have seen enough posts talking about trading our established major leaguers.

You guys talking about trading Giles or Keuchel—or Jake or Marwin—are ridiculous.

That’s not how this works.
That’s not how any of this works.

1) Astros trading with a team in contention (in either league): isn’t going to happen.
2) Astros trading with a team out of contention: will only involve Astro minor league prospects (this may include guys with a year or two of MLB under their belt, e.g. Fisher, Kemp, Hoyt, Paulino, but that’s about it).

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ERhine

ERhine 1894

Posted
Posted
It really does appear the org punted on this draft, though Beer is a typical Luhnow college pick. Good bat, can't field a lick. Beer is probably somewhere between Reed and former Luhnow pick Matt Adams. Hopefully closer to Adams.


Not sure where this comes from, but drafting players who are generally closer to the big leagues does not indicate “the org punted on this drafted.” What a bizarre take away.
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kevwun

kevwun 15608

Posted
Posted (edited)

He hasn't been right since sometime in the 2nd half of last season.  In his case, I don't care where he's rated.  He comes out in the 9th inning of a one run playoff game and every Astros' fan will shit their pants.

Edited by kevwun
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9375

Posted
Posted
I don't think they should trade Giles, I think they should designate him for assignment or release him.

Not sure if serious but this is absurd too.

You don’t think he has value to another contender? He would be the 3rd best reliever for CLE right now (2nd with Miller injured right now).

Worst case let him rot on the bench in the postseason like he did last year rather than risk him pitching against, and being effective, against us.

I agree with HG and others that they need to figure out his role and stick with it. I personally love that Hinch and company are seemingly moving away from clearly defined roles, but for some guys (Giles) that clearly doesn’t seem to work so maybe you don’t do it with him.
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

Giles' expected wOBA in the second half of last season was .233 - pretty fucking good.  I think he tried to make an adjustment to his slider this year and didn't feel comfortable with it, but in his last few appearances that pitch and his usage of it look more like last year.  

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kevwun

kevwun 15608

Posted
Posted (edited)

If he is regularly pitching meaningful innings for the Astros by the end of the season, I will gladly eat crow.  I expect he'll keep just keep bouncing back and forth between almost being trustworthy again and punching himself in the face until the front office finally has enough.

Edited by kevwun
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9375

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Posted
If he is regularly pitching meaningful innings for the Astros by the end of the season, I will gladly eat crow.  I expect he'll keep just keep bouncing back and forth between almost being trustworthy again and punching himself in the face until the front office finally has enough.


This is certainly my fear too.
And from this blurb in the Athletic article I posted yesterday, it would tend to suggest we’re about to get “almost trustworthy Giles” for a while:


“For all that has been made of Ken Giles, his lack of strikeouts and the disappearance of his wipeout slider, I still believe in him as an above-average reliever. He is not going to sport a 57.5% strand rate all year (league average is 73.8%). His 2.06 FIP puts him in the top 20 of all relievers and suggests that he has simply run into some tough luck.”
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ckhorn

ckhorn 208

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

It really does appear the org punted on this draft, though Beer is a typical Luhnow college pick. Good bat, can't field a lick. Beer is probably somewhere between Reed and former Luhnow pick Matt Adams. Hopefully closer to Adams.

Have you been drinking, again.

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