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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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TexArcher
TexArcher

Bregs is going Crawford Boxes right here.

ERhine
ERhine

Prior to the footage being edited by Bender:

wesleywest
wesleywest

Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027. Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No gue

Js1

Js1 85311

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

Giles and Verlander were both gone before clubhouse was opened to reporters. Hopefully Verlander knows where to hide the body.

Wouldn't be the first body they found floating the bayou.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

Posted
Posted
Yeah left him out cause his Astros history is pretty boring unlike Fiers

For sure, but it’s still interesting to think how far the pitching staff has come in a year...last night on the broadcast they showed another comparison of this year’s staff numbers so far compared to last year and all I could think was “well, yeah, that’s what happens when you have Fiers leading your staff in innings through mid-July”
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Mez2

Mez2 4023

Posted
Posted

A million internet years ago, I listed the five best things about the worst play you will ever watch. It was a play that involved the Astros, and I still think about it often. The play was so, so bad. The 2012 Astros were so, so bad. That play was an aerosol metaphor being sprayed around the room, and there was absolutely no escaping it.

Six years later, we have a contender to the throne. The only thing keeping it away from the top slot is that the A’s aren’t bad. They’re on a roll. That is, they were on a roll.

So what, they lost a game on a silly error, leave them alone. It can’t be that bad, right?

Oh. Oh, my.

In a way, this is something of a bookend to that other play involving the Astros. The universe owed them something to make up for the abject humiliation of the last time, and we’re required to study it in the same way.

Here, then, are the five best things about the worst play you’ll see this season. If you’re an A’s fan, they’ll be the five worst things.

But in 20 years, you’ll laugh about this. Promise.

1. The odds

Holy crap, the odds.

Start with the odds of a ball rolling back into play seven feet from home plate. It’s something that you’ll see about two or three times a year, unless you don’t see it at all. It’s rare to hit a ball so poorly that the english takes it back into the field of play, while the batter watches, dumbfounded. Let’s be incredibly generous and guess that the average batter has this happen once every four seasons, or 2,000 at-bats.

1/2000 = .0005 = .05 percent

Now move to the part where Jonathan Lucroy threw a ball off Alex Bregman’s head. You’ve watched a lot of dropped third strikes, right? How often does the catcher hit the runner when he’s making a calm, collected throw to first? Almost never. There have been over 24,000 strikeouts this year. Of those, 61 reached first base after a dropped third strike.

None of the batters who reached first safely after a dropped third strike did so because of a catcher’s error.

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So pretend this was a dropped third strike. It’s hard for baseball players to screw up a calm, collected throw of 60 feet. I’ve been on the field before games, with dozens of reporters and other players milling about, and there are always a couple of players who are parallel to the first-base line and just in foul territory that absolutely firing warmup throws back and forth to each other. As if it’s not big deal. As if they couldn’t kill someone with just one bad throw.

But they don’t make a bad throw. They throw baseballs for a living.

I’d guess that a catcher hits a runner going down the line maybe once in his career. Johnny Bench had 850 assists in his career, so let’s just use that as a benchmark.

1/850 = .00117 = .1 percent

Now consider how hard it is for a professional baseball player to grab a ball with his bare hand and tag the runner. It’s not hard. Tell ‘im, Wash.

It’s really not that hard. Come on.

The act of picking a ball up and tagging a runner without it squirting out of your bare hand is a hard one to even quantify. One in 10,000? One in 100,000?

I will err on the side of caution and suggest that a botched bare-handed tag happens every 1,000 tag attempts.

1/1000 = .001 = .1 percent

That is an EXTREMELY conservative estimate, in my estimation. But now we get to add the three together, and this should be fun.

.0005 * .00117 * .001 = .000000000585

That is, roughly, once in every 500 million baseball plays. It’s possible that baseball could exist well past 17776 and we would still never see a play like this again.

The odds, man. The odds.

(Note: A similar play will probably happen tomorrow, just because baseball wants to prove a point.)

2. That Bregman was involved in the other dumbest walkoff of the year

I’ll bet Pete Rose didn’t have a walk-off win that was half as dumb as this one, and Bregman had one even dumber just a couple months later. What sorcery is this?

Really, I always thought the Astros needed this kind of help.

3. That you can make an argument that it wasn’t even the dumbest way that a team lost that night

The Indians might have lost a game because one of their relievers is nicknamed “OP” and one is nicknamed “OT.”

 

Tito wanted lefty Oliver Perez to face Votto in ninth. He told pitching coach Carl Willis to call and get OP into the game. Willis thought he said OT for Dan Otero. Gulp.

 
 

Danny

Dan

Otero

Ottie

Oatie

Danot

Tero

OT-OT

Otsel

Ero

There are a lot of lazy nicknames if you desire.

Danny Danny Bo Banny

Myxlplyx but Dan

Literally so many nicknames, and you thought the manager chose “OT”?

That’s dumber than a ball rolling into play before a catcher grabs it, drops it while making the tag, and then hits the runner in the head going to first.

ahahahahaha no it isn’t, sorry.

4. There are already YouTube truthers fired up about this

This is the wrong call. Bregman should have been called out of the baseline. While avoiding the tag he travels “Behind” home plate toward 3rd base, and is no longer in the baseline.

Bless you, internet. You will murder us all.

Also, if I remember correctly, while advancing toward first base from home plate you are not allowed to move backwards to avoid a tag. It is the only base you are compelled to advance forward no matter what. You can stop, or run forward, but you cannot run backward to avoid a tag.

The word “behind” appears 10 times in the official MLB rulebook. The mentions come in the following context:

  1. To forbid a runner setting up behind the base to get a head start on a sacrifice fly
  2. Placement of the rosin bag
  3. A weird scenario to explain how umpires can’t award two bases in an unlikely and specific circumstance
  4. An explanation of dead balls
  5. The description of a windup
  6. Where an umpire can set up before the pitch
  7. An explanation of forfeited games

This was not one of those situations.

5. That there were a couple of fans who had hope as soon as Lucroy dropped the ball

 

Screen_Shot_2018_07_11_at_2.03.38_AM.jpg

Why is the dude in the blue buttoned shirt raising his arms to the heavens? It’s not a big deal. The catcher just needs to step to the side and fire the ball to first.

The dude in the blue buttoned shirt was raising his arms to the heavens because there was a chance. I wouldn’t have given him that chance, but he didn’t care. He believed. He was rewarded.

Fair enough. Baseball is a bitey goblin, and sometimes it bites you, and sometimes it bites the other team. The Astros have been on both sides, and it sure has been a spectrum of emotions.

This play, however, was dumber than most. And if it isn’t the worst play of the 2018 MLB season, I don’t want to see the winner.

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Focht Up

Focht Up 631

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Ken Giles is Brad Lidge all over again.

Lidge managed to have another good season after he got a change of scenery.

Time to give Ken the same chance. 

Great comparison.  Giles needs a change of scenery to get his head straight.  At his point I'd  trade him for a large pizza.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

Posted
Posted

i went to a movie last night.  it was 4-0 when i walked in.

a lot to unpack between all the texts (easy on the profanity, mom) and scoretracker highlights.  watched quick pitch when i got home to get more of a feel.

now what do we do with giles?  giving him the sipp treatment where he only comes in when we're getting blown out won't fix anything, but it could hide him.  we don't get blown out very often.  where are our best pitching coaches?  is this a sano extended spring training situation where a month down there could make him rosterable for the postseason?  it seems very mental with him, so who knows if that's fixable.  maybe he needs a shrink.

regardless, his shit attitude doesn't belong.  i would rather a guy like jake who can't hit a lick but has other talents and seems to have the right mental makeup occupying that spot.  at this rate, we'll trade for an arm, and shift 1-2 starters to the pen, so something would have to change fast for him to even be needed.  i hope verlander or altuve or mchugh or whomever is that guy on this club took him aside to get his mind right.  we won the game, we're 30 over, we're gonna finish top 2 seed in the al.  nothing is fucked here, dude, but that aggression will not stand.

i agree with the lidge comparison, only that he needs a change of scenery and could end up bouncing back someplace else.  there's a large gap in their talent levels to be certain.  maybe we can package him somewhere in a deal where he's a sidepiece and we pay out his deal. 

mlb central mentioned hand, adam conley and rasiel iglesias as astros targets this morning.

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BornOrange

BornOrange 1441

Posted
Posted

Earlier this season I mentioned an interview Giles had last season where he said that he doesn't really listen to pitching advice because he knows himself better than anyone else, or something to that effect. I think that was very revelationary about his mindset.

I was hoping that last year's melt-downs and his diminished role in the post season would open him up to constructive criticism from Strom and others. I have no idea how things are behind the scenes but it doesn't seem like he has made any changes.

The Astros staff has been tremendous with so many other pitchers. Dallas Keuchel says he owes his career to Strom. Charlie Morton was re-made by this staff. Even huge talents like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole said they have improved because of things they learned in Houston. Ken Giles has been in Houston for 2.5 years and has regressed, not progressed.

It is time to cut bait with Giles. He still has two years of arbitration left after this year, so he might be attractive to a team that trades their closer to the Astros. Or they might send prospects to a team for a closer, then trade Giles to a NL contender for prospects in return.

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BornOrange

BornOrange 1441

Posted
Posted

Another thing about Giles: his part of the clubhouse chemistry.

The Astros are known for having one of the best atmospheres in the league. Players love the chemistry. Guys coming from other teams say the Astros clubhouse is the best one they have been a part of.

I get the feeling that Giles is tolerated....not loved. Losing him would not affect the clubhouse one bit.

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8832

Posted
Posted

If I'm the GM, before the clock strikes midnight tonight Giles is either traded (even for some Single A player(s) that may never make it to the majors) or on a plane to Fresno or wherever they are playing tonight. More for his attitude and actions than performance. He would not be at the ballpark in Houston tonight. 

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runthebone

runthebone 7969

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

y'all are nuts if you think they are going to trade him this season.  I think the most they do (if anything) is send him down for a while to cool off and give Cionel or Deetz a spin. 

Grizzlies are leading their division, so doesn't seem fair to them.

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Mez2

Mez2 4023

Posted
Posted

realistically, what good does having ken giles on the team moving forward provide to us?  

trade him to an NL team for prospects, move on for the betterment of him, but more importantly, to the team. you don't see jake marisnick being a cock munch every time he gets demoted or passed over. this should be addressed by vet,  and likely will be by today's game privately. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

Posted
Posted

Breaking the Giles trance for a second.
From Stark’s midseason awards:


Still, there’s also something special and ace-like about Justin Verlander that counts here. Watch him when trouble arises. The league is hitting .157 against him with runners on base, with 52 strikeouts and 22 hits. That drops to .086 (3 for 35, with 17 K’s), with runners in scoring position and two outs. In one-run or tie games, the planet is batting .149, with 114 strikeouts, 14 walks and a mere 44 hits. He has a 1.96 ERA against teams .500 or better, with 89 strikeouts and nine walks. And on one of the great rotations of modern times, is there any dispute about who leads that staff?

Only three pitchers in the last 35 years – Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Roy Halladay – have won Cy Youngs seven years apart. Justin Verlander is on track to join that distinguished group at age 35. And the scary part is, he’s better now than he was when he won his first Cy Young!

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8065

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Breaking the Giles trance for a second.
From Stark’s midseason awards:


Still, there’s also something special and ace-like about Justin Verlander that counts here. Watch him when trouble arises. The league is hitting .157 against him with runners on base, with 52 strikeouts and 22 hits. That drops to .086 (3 for 35, with 17 K’s), with runners in scoring position and two outs. In one-run or tie games, the planet is batting .149, with 114 strikeouts, 14 walks and a mere 44 hits. He has a 1.96 ERA against teams .500 or better, with 89 strikeouts and nine walks. And on one of the great rotations of modern times, is there any dispute about who leads that staff?

Only three pitchers in the last 35 years – Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Roy Halladay – have won Cy Youngs seven years apart. Justin Verlander is on track to join that distinguished group at age 35. And the scary part is, he’s better now than he was when he won his first Cy Young!

It's ridiculous JV doesn't have somewhere north of a dozen wins right now. 

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