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Posted
4 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

+12 on the Red Sox today in run differential

The Red Sox lost today, so gained a game on them. Have to keep winning. Want to have the best record in the AL at the end of the season. 

Posted

if my numbers are correct, and i like to think that they are, our staff (including ken giles) now has a season era of 2.90.

for those scoring at home, that's good enough for 9th place in the al, behind two astros, and just ahead of charlie morton (2.96), and behind corey kluber (2.74).

Posted
if my numbers are correct, and i like to think that they are, our staff (including ken giles) now has a season era of 2.90.
for those scoring at home, that's good enough for 9th place in the al, behind two astros, and just ahead of charlie morton (2.96), and behind corey kluber (2.74).

Bullpen has an ERA of 2.74, 0.25 better than the starters. Mez needs lasik.
Posted

That was a fun game. Angels fan would have left earlier if it wasn’t for the fireworks show after the game. 

 

I called the springer GS when stros only  has one runner on and no outs. 

I felt like a god when it happened

  • Like 1
Posted

Adding a bullpen arm is more important for the regular season than the playoffs.  The bullpen looks real nice when 2 out of Keuchel, Morton and LMJ will be available for long relief to close out games.

  • Like 1
Posted
59 minutes ago, runthebone said:

These bullpen defenders have all their stats then leave out the fact it has the worst clutch rating by a shitton. 

Link:. https://climbingtalshill.com/2018/07/19/astros-bullpen-help-top-priority-trade-deadline-looms/

 

Interesting. I looked a little closer at this rating by individual player, and there seems to be a lot of variance. For example, Peacock has a very poor clutch rating this year, but has mostly been neutral for his career. I wonder if this rating truly captures actual characteristics of players or units (which could be predictive) or if it is mostly noise (not actual trends, just mostly random variation)?

Posted
20 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Interesting. I looked a little closer at this rating by individual player, and there seems to be a lot of variance. For example, Peacock has a very poor clutch rating this year, but has mostly been neutral for his career. I wonder if this rating truly captures actual characteristics of players or units (which could be predictive) or if it is mostly noise (not actual trends, just mostly random variation)?

it's noise

Posted

If I understand correctly, this clutch stat measures how well a player/team performs in high leverage situations compared to its/his normal performance. So if you are unworldly normally but merely good in high leverage, you will have a negative clutch rating. Conversely, if a team/player is mediocre in high leverage but awful normally then they will have positive clutch number.

 

Seems like noise.

 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, runthebone said:

They are leaving out a statistic that quantifies and justifies the nervousness the rest of us feel about this bullpen in the postseason.  

This implies that their current clutch rating has a strong influence over or indicative  of their future clutch rating, which isn’t correct. 

Edited by Fozzz
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Fozzz said:

This implies that their current clutch rating has a strong influence over or indicative  of their future clutch rating, which isn’t correct. 

No, that's not what I implied at all.  

Edited by runthebone
Posted

It explains why so many of us feel that the bullpen, despite having good overall mean numbers, seems to shit the bed unexpectedly often. 

That doesn't make it a bad bullpen, it makes it one that seems worse and less reliable than the mean numbers suggest.  

 

Posted
15 hours ago, TonyTexas said:


Bullpen has an ERA of 2.74, 0.25 better than the starters. Mez needs lasik.

When the bullpen allows inherited runs to score, that goes on the starters ERA.

Posted
1 hour ago, runthebone said:

No, that's not what I implied at all.  

Then how does the pen’s current clutch score justify your neverousness about the bullpen in the postseason?  If their current clutch score is not predictive of their clutch score in the future then what is the point of citing that statistic?

Posted (edited)

What I said is that it explains why so many of us feel that the bullpen, despite having good overall mean numbers, seems to shit the bed unexpectedly often.  As in this season.

I think there is plenty of reason to be nervous about this bullpen in the postseason.  Unless you are "implying" that the past is meaningless and that literally only this exact moment in time matters.

 

 

Edited by runthebone
Posted

They also seemingly shit the bed a lot because we’re so fucking good.
When you’re in every game, have the lead late way more often than not, and have closed out 65 of a 100 with a W, every game that ends with a negative outcome is amplified a million times.

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