Jump to content

2018 Houston Astros Season Thread


Planet Houston

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, AtticusFinch said:

There is really no reason for Keuchel to be on 25 man roster.   He will be but it's a wasted spot because they have far better options.  He will not start a game so would you trust him to pitch in relief?

Gagreed. It might piss off some of the veterans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The box score tonight will probably tell you the pitchers who don't make the post season roster. With the exception of Kuechal, not sure he makes it either. As Atticus posted earlier. We can't afford to get down 3-5 runs in the 1st inning and he doesn't fit the relief profile.

Edited by ckhorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bunch of miserable fucks on this thread.  I'm sad that was probably DK's last regular season home start.  He was a huge part of bringing the franchise back from years of wandering the desert and his 2015 was about as good as it gets: starting the All Star game, Cy Young, winning the wild card game in Yankee stadium.

2015-10-07-nyp.jpg

He's still been very good for long stretches this year and I don't see how anyone can think there are 4 better options to start in the playoffs.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Kid Keuchel has been a huge part of this franchise’s rise from the ashes.   I’m a huge fan despite the ocassional big mouth and egg laid.  He’s got another playoff gem or two in the quiver, and I think he’ll make a few of you in here look pretty dumb.

It's going to be weird seeing him in another uniform.

I just hope he signs out of division.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

you fuckers blaming Keuchel are ignoring the real problem.

@UTPhil2006 keeps going to home games and everyone he goes to, we've lost. I say we don't allow him to go to any more home games. 

To be fair my record is 9-7.  8-7 if you take out the game in Arlington.  4 of the last 5 have been L's though.  Like Didi Gregorioius I lost my early season magic

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boss and I took some clients to last night's debacle. By the end we were basically saying "Hope you guys at least had fun drinking beer tonight, sorry for bringing you to the single worst home game of the season."

Always fun when you're about 5 minutes late for first pitch and it's already 3-0 before you get to your seats.

Edited by Storm the Field
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No quick fix for Correa’s slump:

 

After two straight 5+ fWAR seasons, Carlos Correa came in with lofty expectations. Unfortunately for him and the Astros, he has fallen well below his projections.

Through the first 33 games of the season it looked like we were going to watch yet another fantastic season from Correa as he opened the year with a .311/.379/.529 slash line. Since May 5, Correa is “hitting” .207/.298/.343. He has been the worst hitter on the Astros during that time and it’s not particularly close. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that this is the worst Correa has ever looked in his brief career.

So what is happening here? I’m about 97% sure the prodigious No. 1 overall pick didn’t get his powers Space Jam’daway from him overnight. Let’s take a look at what has and hasn’t changed this year.

LineBreak%403x-2.png

The first thing we should look at is whether pitchers have changed their approach towards Correa. When it comes to location, that answer is no.

CORREA_HEATMAP_1.png

CORREA_HEATMAP_2.png

Pitchers aren’t changing their location to Correa because they don’t need to. He has shown none of the pop he showcased in his first three seasons. Here are his slugging numbers before and after May 5.

CORREA_SLUGGING_1.png

CORREA_SLUGGING_2.png

As you can see, Correa has had trouble all year on inside pitches, something I went into much greater detail in here. Earlier in the year, he was able to make up for this lack of success by mashing pitches on the outer half of the plate. Not anymore. He’s regained a tiny bit of pop on the inner third but has lost any semblance of a power threat out over the plate.

Correa has been dealing with a back injury throughout the year. He missed 36 games and has admitted his injury is playing a role in his offensive struggles.

I have a bad back. I have to do weird exercises and sit with a thing on my chair that helps me not cramp up at my desk. Sometimes I have to ask my wife to pick up a sock I dropped because the floor just looks too far away. I know how difficult simple tasks can be when your back hurts, which is why it did not shock me to see how Correa has done at the enormously difficult task of hitting a major-league fastball.

To start the season, Correa had a .407 wOBA against fastballs. That put him in the top 25 percent of the league, beneath his 2017 total of .445, but right around his career average.

Since then, he has tailed off considerably. Since his return from the disabled list on Aug. 10, Correa has a .266 wOBA against fastballs, fourth-worst in all of baseball.

  wOBA against FB Rank
2015 .381 80 out of 327
2016 .388 75 out of 322
2017 .445 19 out of 324
Through May 5 .407 59 out of 252
After return from DL on Aug. 10 .266 99 out of 102

One common complaint I see is Correa is being too passive, that he is watching good pitches go by, especially on fastballs early in the count. This simply isn’t true.

  % of called strikes % of FB called strikes on 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1
2015 18.0 7.8
2016 17.5 8.1
2017 18.6 6.3
Through May 5 18.7 6.4
After return from DL on Aug. 10 19.6 6.9

If there is a silver lining here, it’s that Correa has not altered his plate discipline in the wake of his struggles.

The biggest change between Successful Correa and Current Correa is how hard he’s hitting the ball and where. In 109 games last season, Correa put 105 balls in play with an exit velocity greater than 100 mph. In his 74 games this year since May 5, he’s had just 38. It’s hard to get hits when you can’t hit with authority.

Not only that, Correa has essentially vacated left field in his spray chart since his return from the DL.

Carlos-Correa-4.png

In the article linked above, Correa said, “I was playing a little hurt trying to swing where it wouldn’t hurt anymore.” That spray chart certainly looks like one of a hitter swinging with a hurt back.

LineBreak%403x-2.png

With just 10 games left in the regular season, A.J. Hinch has less and less time to decide what to do with his hampered starter once the playoffs come. Hinch has uprooted Correa from his usual 4-spot in the lineup to the 5- and 6-holes, though it would be hard to see him dropping Correa any further.

The answer to Correa’s year-long slump seems to be a simple and unsatisfying one — wait until he’s fully healthy and work out a few mechanical flaws.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll win the division but with Correa hitting like Ryan White and err'body else with baseball aids, we won't do much. That said, I would hate to play the As in a one game or short series. 

Tomorrow is the biggest game of the season, fortunately utphil is not going. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, only thing that makes sense is that Correa's back issues have screwed with him enough that he's just off at the plate (and unable to produce power). I wouldn't count on him being particularly effective in 2018. 

Still, if Altuve and Springer get hot in October, we figure to be about as good as anyone. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...