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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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No, you guys went Republican to ethnonationalist.

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When Georgetown Prep sends its people, they're not sending their best. They're not sending you. They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're

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In 2016 I was a moderate.  Socially liberal, fiscally conservative, but not quite a libertarian.  I would have considered voting for Kasich had he won the nomination. Now?  I will probably never

Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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Okay, time to contingency plan.  It’s safe to say Trump and the bulk of the GOP really really want Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court ASAP for whatever corrupt reasons.

Moreover, I feel comfortable saying Kavanaugh himself is a deeply flawed and at least mildly corrupt individual which in 2018 isn’t immediately disqualifying for the Supreme Court, thanks Trumpkins.  Sad!

So we have a vote in a week pending an FBI deep background investigation concerning allegations of sexual assault.

Regarless of new allegations, the GOP is banking on the FBI clearing Kavanaugh and having the votes.

Possible outcomes one week from today:

1. FBI finds nothing, clears Kavanaugh’s name, and the Senate has the votes. Kavanaugh confirmed. Pussy hat riots ensue. 

2. FBI finds nothing, but public opinion on Kavanaugh is so awful the Senate can’t get the votes.  They stall.

3. FBI findings are mixed, lots of shady shit but no smoking guns.  Kavanaugh confirmation is uncertain.

4. FBI findings are damning, criminal investigation opened, Kavanaugh FUBAR’d.

5. Kavanaugh gets pulled sometime mid week because he’s just too toxic.

6. Something else comes up to delay Kavanaugh’s nomination 

While many in this thread have declared with certitude the fix is in and Kavanaugh gets confirmed no matter what, I believe it’s more likely he doesn’t make it now.

McConnell was supposed to have this confirmation done two weeks ago but has been railroaded multiple times.  The reason? We still have some parts of a functioning democracy working.  Dr. Ford testifying, the free press exposing what the powerful want to hide, the women in the elevator screaming in Jeff Flake’s face.  This is how democracy works, it’s messy. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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retread

retread 2951

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Posted

The background inquiry will be limited to current accusers, and the FBI has some discretion to define what that means. Not sure how much the WH dictates that?

When interviewing witnesses and BK/M. Judge, how far would they go down the rabbit path with new or different information?

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26472

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13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Okay, time to contingency plan.  It’s safe to say Trump and the bulk of the GOP really really want Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court ASAP for whatever corrupt reasons.

Moreover, I feel comfortable saying Kavanaugh himself is a deeply flawed and at least mildly corrupt individual which in 2018 isn’t immediately disqualifying for the Supreme Court, thanks Trumpkins.  Sad!

So we have a vote in a week pending an FBI deep background investigation concerning allegations of sexual assault.

Regarless of new allegations, the GOP is banking on the FBI clearing Kavanaugh and having the votes.

Possible outcomes one week from today:

1. FBI finds nothing, clears Kavanaugh’s name, and the Senate has the votes. Kavanaugh confirmed. Pussy hat riots ensue. 

2. FBI finds nothing, but public opinion on Kavanaugh is so awful the Senate can’t get the votes.  They stall.

3. FBI findings are mixed, lots of shady shit but no smoking guns.  Kavanaugh confirmation is uncertain.

4. FBI findings are damning, criminal investigation opened, Kavanaugh FUBAR’d.

5. Kavanaugh gets pulled sometime mid week because he’s just too toxic.

6. Something else comes up to delay Kavanaugh’s nomination 

While many in this thread have declared with certitude the fix is in and Kavanaugh gets confirmed no matter what, I believe it’s more likely he doesn’t make it now.

McConnell was supposed to have this confirmation done two weeks ago but has been railroaded multiple times.  The reason? We still have some parts of a functioning democracy working.  Dr. Ford testifying, the free press exposing what the powerful want to hide, the women in the elevator screaming in Jeff Flake’s face.  This is how democracy works, it’s messy. 

My hopeless optimist prediction is #5

 

also - 

Rumsfeld-Looting-is-transition-to-freedo

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13205

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2 minutes ago, retread said:

The background inquiry will be limited to current accusers, and the FBI has some discretion to define what that means. Not sure how much the WH dictates that?

When interviewing witnesses and BK/M. Judge, how far would they go down the rabbit path with new or different information?

If they don't follow leads, there will be leaks and it will hound Kav for his entire tenure. It will be a perpetual reminder of how shitty the Republicans are.

They COULD nominate a female monster instead and judo the Democrats' identity politics into a win for the Republicans with women, but lol everyone here is dumb and the Republicans are dumb AND evil.

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retread

retread 2951

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Plenty of drunken shenanigans at these private-school parties. I take it that Ford was on the periphery of BK's social circle, but the girl relating the 'train' parties sounds like she knew several people in those circles. There's sure to be some 'you oughta go talk to this person about the parties' when the FBI interviews the ppl that they already know about.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Why are you putting quotation marks around a thing no one said?

The FBI is an investigative body and they should do an investigation into the credible allegations against this SC candidate.

Not complicated

Because the poster I was answering said this is a good time for payback from the FBI.  THAT is not what a professional law enforcement agency that is supposed to be abolve politics and revenge does.  But it's cool it's not your team right ? 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Okay, time to contingency plan.  It’s safe to say Trump and the bulk of the GOP really really want Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court ASAP for whatever corrupt reasons.

Moreover, I feel comfortable saying Kavanaugh himself is a deeply flawed and at least mildly corrupt individual which in 2018 isn’t immediately disqualifying for the Supreme Court, thanks Trumpkins.  Sad!

So we have a vote in a week pending an FBI deep background investigation concerning allegations of sexual assault.

Regarless of new allegations, the GOP is banking on the FBI clearing Kavanaugh and having the votes.

Possible outcomes one week from today:

1. FBI finds nothing, clears Kavanaugh’s name, and the Senate has the votes. Kavanaugh confirmed. Pussy hat riots ensue. 

2. FBI finds nothing, but public opinion on Kavanaugh is so awful the Senate can’t get the votes.  They stall.

3. FBI findings are mixed, lots of shady shit but no smoking guns.  Kavanaugh confirmation is uncertain.

4. FBI findings are damning, criminal investigation opened, Kavanaugh FUBAR’d.

5. Kavanaugh gets pulled sometime mid week because he’s just too toxic.

6. Something else comes up to delay Kavanaugh’s nomination 

While many in this thread have declared with certitude the fix is in and Kavanaugh gets confirmed no matter what, I believe it’s more likely he doesn’t make it now.

McConnell was supposed to have this confirmation done two weeks ago but has been railroaded multiple times.  The reason? We still have some parts of a functioning democracy working.  Dr. Ford testifying, the free press exposing what the powerful want to hide, the women in the elevator screaming in Jeff Flake’s face.  This is how democracy works, it’s messy. 

My money is on 3 which sucks because it will leave us in the same place.

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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I’d put it at 75/25 confirm now.

Dems will claim shortly that they need more than a week, but that timeframe has been mentioned so much I think it’s kind of set. 

More Kavanaugh dirt will be dug up. Significance TBD. 

There is always the chance that more is unearthed about Ford. Does she have other people she’s had issues with in the past that could hurt her credibility?  Any substance/mental health issues in her past?  All relevant info  

 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26472

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4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I’d put it at 75/25 confirm now.

Dems will claim shortly that they need more than a week, but that timeframe has been mentioned so much I think it’s kind of set. 

More Kavanaugh dirt will be dug up. Significance TBD. 

There is always the chance that more is unearthed about Ford. Does she have other people she’s had issues with in the past that could hurt her credibility?  Any substance/mental health issues in her past?  All relevant info  

 

Do you care that he said demonstrably false things to the judicial committee? Serious question.

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pacman

pacman 7357

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9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Coming?  I've been out of the country for the past 10 days and from the outside it sure as shit has seemed like one massive dog and pony show already.

Very true..was referencing the fbi investigation to be specific but you are very right

I find it hard to believe, in our great country, we can't find a lawyer/judge who, when announced as a SC nominee, has us all turning to each other in agreement.

"Yep, that's a Supreme Court Justice"

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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5 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I’d put it at 75/25 confirm now.

Dems will claim shortly that they need more than a week, but that timeframe has been mentioned so much I think it’s kind of set. 

More Kavanaugh dirt will be dug up. Significance TBD. 

There is always the chance that more is unearthed about Ford. Does she have other people she’s had issues with in the past that could hurt her credibility?  Any substance/mental health issues in her past?  All relevant info  

 

I could see it getting extended past a week.  A week is short. If they find something that needs further investigation or a key interviewee cant make that timetable, it will push the end date nearly automatically. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29354

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Why does everyone think there must be dirt on Graham that he's hiding? Lindsey Graham has never demonstrated a commitment to any deep principles beyond his strong desire to see us invade Iran. He's been all over the map on pretty much every other issue during his career based on what he saw as the most opportune position to take at the time. He's Hillary Clinton with even fewer principles and even less charisma. 

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

 

McConnell was supposed to have this confirmation done two weeks ago but has been railroaded multiple times.  The reason? We still have some parts of a functioning democracy working.  Dr. Ford testifying, the free press exposing what the powerful want to hide, the women in the elevator screaming in Jeff Flake’s face.  This is how democracy works, it’s messy. 

A female friend of a Facebook friend of mine, who claimed to be a sexual assault victim, was furious at McConnell for not providing Flake adequate security so he would not have been confronted by those "two harpies" (her words) and the vote could have commenced immediately. 

 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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34 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Why does everyone think there must be dirt on Graham that he's hiding? Lindsey Graham has never demonstrated a commitment to any deep principles beyond his strong desire to see us invade Iran. He's been all over the map on pretty much every other issue during his career based on what he saw as the most opportune position to take at the time. He's Hillary Clinton with even fewer principles and even less charisma. 

Graham has been pretty consistent on foreign policy across the board as an interventionist.  He fucking hates Russia. His position on immigration has been consistently moderate.  On trade he’s somewhat protectionist.  

Traditionally, Graham has been a moderate overall and even worked on getting climate change legislation passed.  The Tea Party hated him.

However in the Trump era, Graham’s real ideology is in the closet.  He’s gone full Littlefinger.  If his act keeps us out of a nuclear war, it might be worth it. 

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burntorangebongos

burntorangebongos 10725

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1 hour ago, retread said:

The background inquiry will be limited to current accusers, and the FBI has some discretion to define what that means. Not sure how much the WH dictates that?

When interviewing witnesses and BK/M. Judge, how far would they go down the rabbit path with new or different information?

So if they talk to the Yalies and they corroborate that he lied about his drinking and have ancedotes of other incidents not necessarily worse than the Debbie Ramirez incident, will that be enough to keep him out? What if they corroborate that incident? I think our best bet is something coming out from his college years. I doubt any of his frat bros talk but they were probably assholes to someone that might. One story came out that they followed a couple into a bedroom after a while to catch them in the act...maybe something like that if the gal is willing to talk?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13205

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3 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

So if they talk to the Yalies and they corroborate that he lied about his drinking and have ancedotes of other incidents not necessarily worse than the Debbie Ramirez incident, will that be enough to keep him out? What if they corroborate that incident? I think our best bet is something coming out from his college years. I doubt any of his frat bros talk but they were probably assholes to someone that might. One story came out that they followed a couple into a bedroom after a while to catch them in the act...maybe something like that if the gal is willing to talk?

Bro-to-bro silence agreements tend to fall apart under basically any level of scrutiny. These guys probably couldn't withstand the glare of a couple of angry wives, much less the impassive presence of badged and armed federal agents.

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18237

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58 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Jesus, he said this would be a good time for some payback to trump.  That's BS regardless of who's sitting in the WH.  

That’s not what I posted.  I said it is a “nice opportunity,” meaning the FBI has an opening to get payback if that’s what they want to do.  I did not advocate that they politicize this process.  

Many here have implied that Trump’s attacks on the Justice Department could come back to bite him.  My post just notes that this is one context in which the FBI could fuck Trump (not that they should).

 

Edited by BrickHorn
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18871

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2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I’d put it at 75/25 confirm now.

Dems will claim shortly that they need more than a week, but that timeframe has been mentioned so much I think it’s kind of set. 

More Kavanaugh dirt will be dug up. Significance TBD. 

There is always the chance that more is unearthed about Ford. Does she have other people she’s had issues with in the past that could hurt her credibility?  Any substance/mental health issues in her past?  All relevant info  

 

If he gets confirmed, every single lawyer who represents progressives or Democrats is going to ask that Brett Kavanaugh recuse himself because of his highly inappropriate performance on Thursday. It will be an issue for Kavanaugh and the Court for his entire tenure. John Roberts is probably thrilled.

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