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Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread


Hugo Stiglitz

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1 minute ago, kevwun said:

as Bateshorn said, Manchin will not cast the deciding vote for Kavanaugh.  If he votes yes, it will be because Cocaine Mitch has enough Republican yes votes to confirm him.

Just now, Bateshorn said:

Y'all could be right, but what Manchin doesn't want to be is the 51st "No".

Something deep down inside tells me it looks like Collins is going to be an eventual "no" and gave cover to Manchin to vote to put it to the floor.  Let her and Murkowski be the 2 that kill it.

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Just now, Laxtonto said:

I know of at least 2 who dont in Donnally and Manchin

Donnelly was an early "no" for Kavanaugh.  I don't think he cares.  Him, Claire, Heidi, Tester all came out as no before today.

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Something deep down inside tells me it looks like Collins is going to be an eventual "no" and gave cover to Manchin to vote to put it to the floor.  Let her and Murkowski be the 2 that kill it.

Both Murkowski and Collins can vote no and survive McConnell's wrath.  They have some personal wealth and represent states where giving him the finger is a feature, not a bug.

Flake, OTOH, is clearly personally torn  between how he feels and the fact that literally millions of dollars of future earning potential are on the line.

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1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Oh, I bet there are a bunch of blue state Republicans up in 2020 who want nothing to do with this vote.

Gardner

Collins

Ernst with the Midwest trending D again

Tillis in a purple state

Edited by Js1
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Just now, Js1 said:

Donnelly was an early "no" for Kavanaugh.  I don't think he cares.  Him, Claire, Heidi, Tester all came out as no before today.

His current polling and the momentum in the state implies that he would be so much better off if this never went to a vote. Same with Manchin.

Even if he was on the record then, he could walk it back some. Now, regardless of what happnens he is one the record as no and it will be used against him. This vote was a no win for many of them, but what I find funny is that it is also essentially a signal from Highcamp that she knows she is defeated.

 

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1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Both Murkowski and Collins can vote no and survive McConnell's wrath.  They have some personal wealth and represent states where giving him the finger is a feature, not a bug.

Flake, OTOH, is clearly personally torn  between how he feels and the fact that literally millions of dollars of future earning potential are on the line.

Murkowski isn't scared of a primary challenge  - she already lost one and won as a write-in because her name is a brand in Alaska.

Collins is probably seeing the writing on the wall and is going to decline to run in 2020 anyhow. 

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Just now, swraith said:

I don’t see Collins switching to a “no vote” 30 hours from now. I still think this is a done deal for Mitch.

This is my personal feeling.  The vote you saw today is what the final vote will be, but I guess it could change.

I've worked a fair bit with Lisa Murkowski over the year's.  She's a policy hound.  I'm sure this whole thing is abhorrent to her,  because it's entirely unnecessary.  There was no reason not to pull Kav back 2 weeks ago and nominate another conservative.  That was the policy move, as opposed to all this dick measuring and politics.

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I'm clean.  I think my biggest transgression was being mean to a kid down the street.  Oh, I did trip a girl on the last day of school.  Didn't drink or drug -- well, the chick in front of me at the Boston concert ~ sophomore year passed back a joint and I took a hit.  Never came close to sexual assault.  Hell, barely got close to any sexual activity at all.
Fortunately I got around to the beer & sex in college.  BUT (crazy I know) -- no sexual assault.
I don't think the world is so empty of people with relatively unimpeachable backgrounds as you might think


Truth won’t matter, silly
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Just now, David Dennison said:

At this point, if I were Chuck Schumer I'd tell Manchin to go ahead and vote yes to make sure only Republicans can kill the nomination. The Republicans are going to get a conservative on the Court anyway. Might as well get your base even more riled up for November. 

This would be my call.  It's better to preserve your chance of spending the next to years blocking all of Trump's future judicial nominations, when you're going to swap out Kavanaugh for Coney Barrett or Hardiman anyway and risk a lead in WV.

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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's smart politics letting him vote yes at this point. 

This. As long as he's not the one to kill the confirmation, I don't see a downside for him. "I voted to put him on the floor, but those Republican ladies killed it"

Edit -

 

Edited by Js1
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Just now, Buzzrock said:

I wonder how long I have been able to consistently name at least one SCOTUS judge.  Probably ever since Clarence Thomas was on the court, which would have been when I was 12.  Good job, good effort, America.

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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Which means he votes with Democrats a lot. A lot more than a Republican from WV would.

Shelly Capito voted for the tax cuts and AHCA

Manchin voted against both.

The Democrats would rather have Manchin than a Republican in his place. A Democrat who votes with you ~60% of the time is better than a Republican who votes with you 0% of the time.

And with the way the Senate is set up, Democrats will forever be relying on red state Democrats for a majority.  Just the way it is.

Edited by Js1
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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Shelly Capito voted for the tax cuts and AHCA

Manchin voted against both.

The Democrats would rather have Manchin than a Republican in his place.

If the GOP has 50 votes, I have no problem with Joe Manchin voting to confirm. He's trying to get re-elected as a Democrat in one of the reddest states in America. A yes vote will help.

Edited by David Dennison
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12 hours ago, Satchel said:

There's something in political theory known as delegitimization crisis. If confirmed, we're likely to see it play out over the course of Kavanaugh's time on the court. The widely held view of his illegitimacy will matastasize and negatively impact the perception of an impartial Supreme Court. And so, the erosion of norms continues under Fat Nixon.

Fat Nixon is certainly a big part of it, but I think you also have to give credit to Puppetmaster Putin. This whole episode advances his agenda perfectly.

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Just now, Bat Guano said:

Fat Nixon is certainly a big part of it, but I think you also have to give credit to Puppetmaster Putin. This whole episode advances his agenda perfectly.

No shit. 

Every branch of government undermined at once and throw in a rigged FBI investigation on top of it. 

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I wonder how long I have been able to consistently name at least one SCOTUS judge.  Probably ever since Clarence Thomas was on the court, which would have been when I was 12.  Good job, good effort, America.


Government schools don’t even teach government.
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If the GOP has 50 votes, I have no problem with Joe Manchin voting to confirm. He's trying to get re-elected as a Democrat in one of the reddest states in America. A yes vote will help.


Your steadfast willingness to abandon principles in favor of team is steadfast.
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1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

They might be confirming him about three weeks too early.

Given how every second is a year in the trump administration, many people might forget who the hell Bart O'Kavanaugh is after Trump explodes a dozen controversies in the three weeks between this weekend and the election. Everyone focused on how garbage Donald Trump is is great for the Democrats.

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1 minute ago, RomaVicta said:

I've got such a headache. I cashed my Soros check last night and drank my weight in beer. I think I almost laid some chick, but she ran out of the room. She was a frisky one; I've got teeth marks on my hand. Tiger in bed, I bet.

There is your problem. When you grab them by the pussy, make sure it's not vagina dentata. 

  • Fuck You 2
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