Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Thread

[swraith 348]

The Turtle will bully his way to getting the necessary votes. The Week delay for the FVI was a cover for Flake being able to step in line with the GOP. Collins can be bought off.

Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed.

[Mo Horn 8,938]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

No. That's not what we're looking at. Clarence Thomas will be long gone before we ever get to 15 years.

So will RBG. 

[David Dennison 19,543]

Just now, Mo Horn said:

So will RBG. 

I expect them both to be replaced by the next Democratic president. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Just now, swraith said:

The Turtle will bully his way to getting the necessary votes. The Week delay for the FVI was a cover for Flake being able to step in line with the GOP. Collins can be bought off.

Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed.

If there was ever a time to back stab McConnell, this would be it. Plenty of GOP Senators hate him. 

[David Dennison 19,543]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If there was ever a time to back stab McConnell, this would be it. Plenty of GOP Senators hate him. 

I doubt it will happen this time.

The best part about this whole thing will be the exploding heads when Roberts swings left on cases the right thinks are in the bag.

Edited October 4, 2018 by David Dennison

[Chuckie Finster 23,081]

What's amusing is democrats had a 10 point national  lead in September. That's now 2 points.

lolwut

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

12 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Yes, a moment in which you cement your legacy as hated by the party you served for decades. I'm sure they can't wait.

Welcome Kav to the SC, guys. Deal with it.

You’re not thinking this through.  If Kav gets railroaded and a much better candidate is appointed, the Republicans that voted no on Kavanaugh can credit claim the much better Justice plus win the woman vote back. 

[Patrick Bateman 3,980]

13 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

What's amusing is democrats had a 10 point national  lead in September. That's now 2 points. Regardless of that you're looking at 15-30 years of a conservative court whether it's  Kavannaugh or some other GOP nominee. I'd prefer a different candidate at this point .

Link?

 

[David Dennison 19,543]

Let's not forget the real possibility of court packing.

 

[Mo Horn 8,938]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I expect them both to be replaced by the next Democratic president. 

 

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I doubt it will happen this time.

The best part about this whole thing will be the exploding heads when Roberts swings left on cases the right thinks are in the bag.

I need some of your optimism. 

[David Dennison 19,543]

1 minute ago, Mo Horn said:

 

I need some of your optimism. 

It's already happened. He saved the ACA.

[retread 2,951]

538 chart of Generic Ballot

Edited October 4, 2018 by retread

[GRHorn 105]

8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I doubt it will happen this time.

The best part about this whole thing will be the exploding heads when Roberts swings left on cases the right thinks are in the bag.

Your mood swings are wild.  You go from they don’t have the votes, to only Dems could screw this so bad, back to they don’t have the votes.  

[David Dennison 19,543]

Just now, GRHorn said:

Your mood swings are wild.  You go from they don’t have the votes, to only Dems could screw this so bad, back to they don’t have the votes.  

I never said Dems could screw this so bad. 

I think they've been brilliant throughout this whole thing. They've taken a pound of flesh from the GOP. This confirmation will doom a number of Republican senators.

[bad_teammate 13,529]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I think they've been brilliant throughout this whole thing. They've taken a pound of flesh from the GOP. This confirmation will doom a number of Republican senators.

Hell yeah. Moral victories gonna taste so good when The handmaid's Tale becomes a documentary

[David Dennison 19,543]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Hell yeah. Moral victories gonna taste so good when The handmaid's Tale becomes a documentary

Elections are real victories, brah.

[Nivek 17,415]

God damn. Orrin Hatch’s piece that I just posted was fucking beautiful. I have a huge fucking smile right now from reading it. Jeff Flake and the other pathetic RINOs - learn from Sens. Hatch and Graham who have exhibited the courage and conviction to call out our enemies.

I thought you said you were quitting this thread?

[swraith 348]

If there was ever a time to back stab McConnell, this would be it. Plenty of GOP Senators hate him. 

What is the upside to back stabbing McConnell at this point in time ?

[MaybeACoordinator 8,350]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Sucking dick talk not going away

And we never even got around to billowy assholes. 

[Satchel 6,982]

2 hours ago, Stros said:

Sen. Cory Booker wants to “move onto a new candidate” and does not care whether Kavanaugh is “innocent or guilty.”

If what the signatories to the Law school professors letter assert, specifically 

"...under two statutes governing bias and recusal, judges must step aside if they are at risk of being perceived as or of being unfair", and

a judge or justice “shall disqualify himself in any proceeding in which his impartiality might reasonably be questioned.”...

is true, why is Kavanaugh still be considered for the SC?

[bad_teammate 13,529]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Elections are real victories, brah.

Dems don't win those

[MixtyMotions 102]

38 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

There’s a John McCain moment here for the Republican that wants it.  The whole country is watching and that is a huge opportunity to pass up for anyone intending a political future post Trump. 

I think Manchin will seize the day.  And maybe the Dems will disown him and turn him into a Republican.

[MixtyMotions 102]

38 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

There’s a John McCain moment here for the Republican that wants it.  The whole country is watching and that is a huge opportunity to pass up for anyone intending a political future post Trump. 

I think Manchin will seize the day.  And maybe the Dems will disown him and turn him into a Republican.

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

37 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

He took Mark Twain to heart. He wouldn't want to belong to any club that would accept him as a member. Well, the Republicans wouldn't. So that's the team for him. 

Good point.  Brown guy who blows dudes on the side.  Whatever the uncle tom version of arabs is...we got him on this site.  Yay?

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

1 minute ago, MixtyMotions said:

I think Manchin will seize the day.  And maybe the Dems will disown him and turn him into a Republican.

I think you're a fucking idiot. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

1 minute ago, MixtyMotions said:

I think Manchin will seize the day.  And maybe the Dems will disown him and turn him into a Republican.

I think you're a fucking idiot. 

[David Dennison 19,543]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Dems don't win those

Of course they do.

[Patrick Bateman 3,980]

3 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

I think Manchin will seize the day.  And maybe the Dems will disown him and turn him into a Republican.

Explain..... 

[A-Tex Devil 2,500]

1 hour ago, Jag102 said:

Yea, that's your published rate, not a single one of your clients pays that rate. Why don't you just go ahead and say your rate is $9000 an hour, your still gonna get the same amount, not that, please. I like the statment "Even if he is completely innocent...", if he is innocent, then he gets the job. You don't like the way he defended his innocence, so he gets the same result as if he was guilty. Is that justice...?

First ummmm.  Ok. My realization is just fine.  

Second. Yes. The way he defended his innocence was wrongheaded.  Period.  If he comes out with some magnanimity and disarms the Dems, they look bad.  It was an easy approach.  Instead he went full asshole.  He seemed guilty as fuck to me but that just my opinion I guess.  

Ultimately, the GOP and Trump deserve everything they get after Garland and Trump’s quotes this week. They are on wrong side of everything. 

Edited October 4, 2018 by A-Tex Devil

[MixtyMotions 102]

2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Explain..... 

He'll vote to confirm.  The Dems will go nuts.  If the extremists are stupid (and I remember a long, long list of such stupidity like the GOP with Jeffords and Spector)  they will punish Manchin by changing his committee assignments, and he'll say "fuck you" and get a deal from the GOP to switch parties.

[Eskimohorn 5,682]

Figure of speech. I'm pretty liberal about stuff (Pro Choice and Pro Same Sex Marriage) but the left is coming off the rails recently. 

[Patrick Bateman 3,980]

2 minutes ago, MixtyMotions said:

He'll vote to confirm.  The Dems will go nuts.  If the extremists are stupid (and I remember a long, long list of such stupidity like the GOP with Jeffords and Spector)  they will punish Manchin by changing his committee assignments, and he'll say "fuck you" and get a deal from the GOP to switch parties.

His vote will only matter if two Pubs flip.  If that happens, then yes, his vote could count..... Are you expecting 2 Republicans to vote NO on confirmation?  If so, which 2?

 

[David Dennison 19,543]

1 minute ago, MixtyMotions said:

He'll vote to confirm.  The Dems will go nuts.  If the extremists are stupid (and I remember a long, long list of such stupidity like the GOP with Jeffords and Spector)  they will punish Manchin by changing his committee assignments, and he'll say "fuck you" and get a deal from the GOP to switch parties.

Dems won't go nuts if Joe Manchin or Heidi Heitkamp vote yes.

They'll only go nuts if they vote yes and Collins and Murkowski vote no. But that won't happen. They're all probably going to vote as a block. Chuck Schumer isn't going to punish them for trying to get re-elected when the votes to confirm are there anyway.

[A-Tex Devil 2,500]

What is weird about all this is if BK is confirmed, Dems get a boost in November and if he isn’t GOP does.  

[Brandywine 1,330]

Nothing surprises me anymore. I think the worse to prepare for anything.

[MixtyMotions 102]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Dems won't go nuts if Joe Manchin or Heidi Heitkamp vote yes.

They'll only go nuts if they vote yes and Collins and Murkowski vote no. But that won't happen. They're all probably going to vote as a block. Chuck Schumer isn't going to punish them for trying to get re-elected when the votes to confirm are there anyway.

This is true of smart Dems Like Pelosi and Schumer) but not true of the nutcases like Kate Michelman.  The special interest people go nuts.  And it matters.

[David Dennison 19,543]

2 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

Nothing surprises me anymore. I think the worse to prepare for anything.

I've seen Bill Clinton and Barack Obama posterize their opponents.

I've seen Nancy Pelosi become Speaker of the House. I'm pretty sure I'll see that again.

I've seen a foundation for a national health care system become law and I've seen Republicans fail to repeal it over and over and over again. I've seen the right's Chief Justice save the same law.

I've seen an actor become president and I've seen a reality show con man become president.

Politics is weird, man.

 

[triplehorn 2,664]

19 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

What is weird about all this is if BK is confirmed, Dems get a boost in November and if he isn’t GOP does.  

If Brett gets confirmed and D's control a chamber, there's a very good chance he will face a subpoena to HJC or SJC and, based on what we've all witnessed to date, could face some career threatening consequences.  Brett is bad for everyone.

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21,789]

 

[Michael Knight 13,231]

2 hours ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Yes my parents were top notch in their fields, fluent in English and affluent.

What happened to you then?

[triplehorn 2,664]

10 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

What happened to you then?

effluent ?

[Lobwedgephil 1,146]

Per WSJ: White House Finds No Corroboration of Sexual Misconduct Allegations Against Kavanaugh in FBI Report

[Revolution512 1,518]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Some of them will end their careers with this vote.

Do you really believe this? This is politics. You still believe in Bernie. Stupid ideas don’t die

[Hank Kingsley 21,789]

They found what they weren't looking for. 

[ERhine 1,938]

What happened to you then?

Meth.

[David Dennison 19,543]

1 minute ago, Revolution512 said:

Do you really believe this? This is politics. You still believe in Bernie. Stupid ideas don’t die

Absolutely. I doubt Susan Collins runs in 2020. There will be some Republicans in blue states who will also bug out or lose in 2020.

Of course I believe in Bernie and his policy positions, but I'll never vote for him again.

And conservatism is certainly proof of the last thing you said. 

[Patrick Bateman 3,980]

So..... the FBI, either willing or under orders, ignored a lot of witnesses willing to come forward and talk to them regarding much of Kavanaugh's testimony and the lack of truthfulness in it.

From the article.... Ramirez's alleged version apparently got to another of Kavanuagh's suite mate shortly after.

Quote

 

Deborah Ramirez, one of two women who have accused Kavanaugh of sexual abuse, said in an interview that she had been hopeful that her story would be investigated when two agents drove from Denver to Boulder, Colorado, last weekend to interview her at her lawyer’s office. But Ramirez said that she was troubled by what she perceived as a lack of willingness on the part of the Bureau to take steps to substantiate her claims. “I am very alarmed, first, that I was denied an F.B.I. investigation for five days, and then, when one was granted, that it was given on a short timeline and that the people who were key to corroborating my story have not been contacted,” Ramirez said. “I feel like I’m being silenced.”....

Kenneth G. Appold was a suitemate of Kavanaugh’s at the time of the alleged incident. He had previously spoken to The New Yorker about Ramirez on condition of anonymity, but he said that he is now willing to be identified because he believes that the F.B.I. must thoroughly investigate her allegation. Appold, who is the James Hastings Nichols Professor of Reformation History at Princeton Theological Seminary, said that he first heard about the alleged incident involving Kavanaugh and Ramirez either the night it occurred or a day or two later. Appold said that he was “one-hundred-per-cent certain” that he was told that Kavanaugh was the male student who exposed himself to Ramirez. He said that he never discussed the allegation with Ramirez, whom he said he barely knew in college. But he recalled details—which, he said, an eyewitness described to him at the time—that match Ramirez’s memory of what happened. “I can corroborate Debbie’s account,” he said in an interview. “I believe her, because it matches the same story I heard thirty-five years ago, although the two of us have never talked.”

Appold, who won two Fulbright Fellowships, and earned his Ph.D. in religious studies from Yale in 1994, also recalled telling his graduate-school roommate about the incident in 1989 or 1990. That roommate, Michael Wetstone, who is now an architect, confirmed Appold’s account and said, “it stood out in our minds because it was a shocking story of transgression.”

And the Renate Alumnus..... Shocking, it may not be a term of endearment....

Quote

His statement also challenges Kavanaugh’s assertion in last week’s hearing that he never denigrated a female student named Renate Schroeder, whose married name is Renate Dolphin, and who attended Georgetown’s sister school, Stone Ridge School of the Sacred Heart, in Bethesda, Maryland.

Kavanaugh and thirteen other Georgetown Prep boys described themselves in their high-school yearbook as “Renate Alumnius,” which other classmates have told the Times was a crude sexual boast. During his Senate hearing, Kavanaugh said that the reference was an endearment, saying, “she was a great friend of ours. We—a bunch of us went to dances with her. She hung out with us as a group.” He said that a “media circus that has been generated by this, though, and reported that it referred to sex. It did not.”

But the classmate who submitted the statement said that he heard Kavanaugh “talk about Renate many times,” and that “the impression I formed at the time from listening to these conversations where Brett Kavanaugh was present was that Renate was the girl that everyone passed around for sex.” The classmate said that “Brett Kavanaugh had made up a rhyme using the REE NATE pronunciation of Renate’s name” and sang it in the hallways on the way to class. He recalled the rhyme going, “REE NATE, REE NATE, if you want a date, can’t get one until late, and you wanna get laid, you can make it with REE NATE.” He said that, while he might not be remembering the rhyme word-for-word, “the substance is 100 percent accurate.” He added, “I thought that this was sickening at the time I heard it, and it left an indelible mark in my memory.”

Reached for comment, Dolphin noted that she had asked for her name to be removed from a statement signed by female supporters of Kavanaugh’s nomination. “If this report is true, I am profoundly hurt,” she said, of the account in the affidavit. “I did nothing to deserve this. There is nothing affectionate or respectful in bragging about making sexual conquests that never happened. I am not a political person, but my reputation matters to me and to my family. I would not have signed the letter if I had known about the yearbook references and this affidavit. It is heartbreaking if these guys who acted like my friends in high school were saying these nasty, false things about me behind my back.”

The investigation seems extremely narrow in focus and certainly not a thorough commission...... 

[Revolution512 1,518]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

I never said Dems could screw this so bad. 

I think they've been brilliant throughout this whole thing. They've taken a pound of flesh from the GOP. This confirmation will doom a number of Republican senators.

Brilliant at what exactly? 

[David Dennison 19,543]

Just now, Revolution512 said:

Brilliant at what exactly? 

Making the Republicans spend political capital they can't afford.

[Hank Kingsley 21,789]