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Posted

I honestly have no problem with the idea that the federal government needs a good trimming.   It would be nice if this could be done in a throttled fashion, say over a couple years to "flatten the curve" of joblessness and all of its known and unknown effects and to provide for the ability to pause and pivot if/when damaging effects arise, but that runs into midterms.  I imagine that is why this has been outsourced to our unelected modern-day Howard Hughes to execute.  He need only answer to the President, not voters.  The elected politicians can take credit for the good and avoid blame for the bad.

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Posted
1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

I would argue that is not “flooding the private sector” and taking jobs but rather repurposing roles in a mew company/contract as to your point a proxy for public sector. 
 

I just don’t see bulk of these current federal employees jumping to a private company that isn’t focused on working with federal government. 
 

I see more along the lines of point you are making. Get rid of TSA eg then all of those folks just get hired by airline or airport directly as their version of TSA. 

Wait.  Did I miss something?  Are they going to get rid of the TSA?   I've been waiting patiently for them to come to that conclusion, with it being the only truly worthless division of the federal government, and have been surprised it has flown under the radar while they attack departments that actually serve a purpose.

I'm not a fan of what's been going on the last couple of weeks, but if the TSA disappears I might grumble just a tiny bit less. ;) 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

Wait.  Did I miss something?  Are they going to get rid of the TSA?   I've been waiting patiently for them to come to that conclusion, with it being the only truly worthless division of the federal government, and have been surprised it has flown under the radar while they attack departments that actually serve a purpose.

I'm not a fan of what's been going on the last couple of weeks, but if the TSA disappears I might grumble just a tiny bit less. ;) 

Where did TSA touch you?

I don't beat up on them. They pay like shit so don't get the best. Airports were not designed to do that type of post 9-11 screenings. Austin is a great example.

Just plan ahead, know there will be lines and relax. Oh, and take off your shoes/belt before you fucking get to the front. So much of the delay are stupid travelers.

And where do they get a job if shut down? Who replaces them? Same people will get those jobs if it goes private. Or be checking you for hidden flasks at a UT game.

Edited by InkaUtexas
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Posted

CSB warning:

 

I traveled through dozens of domestic airports with a pocket knife(3" blade promotional gift POS) in my small rolling carry on bag over a couple of years.  I got the thing at a business event I drove to.  Packing up to leave I thought to myself, "don't forget to take this out of bag when you get home".  Of course I did, so it stayed in the side internal pocket until I had to travel to Canada.   The Canadian airport security was very surly when they pulled me out of the line by the xray machine.   Oooops.  Throw it away.   

 


So I question the efficacy of the TSA for sure.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

The number of posters here who are opposed to auditing/fine-tooth-combing federal spending is probably zero.

It's just that sane people know that the way you do so is not "nuke everything and give 19 year old psychopaths full access to top secret materials."

quit being a drama queen.  

 

he's 25.

Posted
7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Where did TSA touch you?

Same people will get those jobs if it goes private. 

The same people would get the jobs at 150-200% the cost to the government if their salary stays the same.  The Deloittes and IBMs gotta eat, too.

 

 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

Wait.  Did I miss something?  Are they going to get rid of the TSA?   I've been waiting patiently for them to come to that conclusion, with it being the only truly worthless division of the federal government, and have been surprised it has flown under the radar while they attack departments that actually serve a purpose.

I'm not a fan of what's been going on the last couple of weeks, but if the TSA disappears I might grumble just a tiny bit less. ;) 

Just used them as an example of a federal set of activities that would be “repurposed” as private run concern that wouldn’t necessarily be taking existing private sector jobs. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The same people would get the jobs at 150-200% the cost to the government if their salary stays the same.  The Deloittes and IBMs gotta eat, too.

 

 

Service companies supporting the government run at about a 6% profit margin. One reason security is so hard for them to outsource is so few companies can make the standards and want to do so at that margin.

The outsourced US Embassy security forces, the second tier, run about 4-5% profit. Same with the VA, NASA, IRS, etc. TSA is one of the few large government run security entities.

 

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Posted
Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Service companies supporting the government run at about a 6% profit margin. One reason security is so hard for them to outsource is so few companies can make the standards and want to do so at that margin.

The outsourced US Embassy security forces, the second tier, run about 4-5% profit. Same with the VA, NASA, IRS, etc. TSA is one of the few large government run security entities.

 

Ok, I will defer to your expertise, but my margin was when I contracted through Thoughtworks to the state of Utah was 50%. 

Posted
Just now, Goredho said:

Ok, I will defer to your expertise, but my margin was when I contracted through Thoughtworks to the state of Utah was 50%. 

States pay more than feds sometimes. I won't ask what you were doing, but were you insured? Contract? 50% ain't profit. it is a combination of overhead (big bucks), G/A and profit. When I see a contractor I always look at where their HQ is and think about that cost. It is amazing sometimes how much they pay for office space to be "near" the client.

Also depends what type of contract it is. Lowest Price Technically acceptable is where security usually lies. Time and Material is where the tax payer gets fleeced.

Posted
36 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Where did TSA touch you?

I don't beat up on them. They pay like shit so don't get the best. Airports were not designed to do that type of post 9-11 screenings. Austin is a great example.

Just plan ahead, know there will be lines and relax. Oh, and take off your shoes/belt before you fucking get to the front. So much of the delay are stupid travelers.

And where do they get a job if shut down? Who replaces them? Same people will get those jobs if it goes private. Or be checking you for hidden flasks at a UT game.

They serve no benefit whatsoever.   They shouldn't be privatized.  They shouldn't exist.  I don't care where they find jobs.   Fast food would be the most similar skillset match, although they would have to step it up to hang.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

States pay more than feds sometimes. I won't ask what you were doing, but were you insured? Contract? 50% ain't profit. it is a combination of overhead (big bucks), G/A and profit. When I see a contractor I always look at where their HQ is and think about that cost. It is amazing sometimes how much they pay for office space to be "near" the client.

Also depends what type of contract it is. Lowest Price Technically acceptable is where security usually lies. Time and Material is where the tax payer gets fleeced.

I mean, for every $100 I made, the state was charged $150, so Utah was getting charged 150% of what I cost Thoughtworks.  All of our contracts were for time and materials.

Posted
28 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

CSB warning:

 

I traveled through dozens of domestic airports with a pocket knife(3" blade promotional gift POS) in my small rolling carry on bag over a couple of years.  I got the thing at a business event I drove to.  Packing up to leave I thought to myself, "don't forget to take this out of bag when you get home".  Of course I did, so it stayed in the side internal pocket until I had to travel to Canada.   The Canadian airport security was very surly when they pulled me out of the line by the xray machine.   Oooops.  Throw it away.   

 


So I question the efficacy of the TSA for sure.

CSB v 2.0:

Following 9/11 I was dating a girl who was often on work trips to Tel Aviv. Went through Ben Gurion many times. I found it funny at first they did NOT ask you to take off your shoes, though they did poke through all your bags. I felt like they just profiled the shit out of you and knew who was a danger and who was not.

One time some bawdy American would not stop trying to flirt with the 19 yo Israeli doing her 2 years I assume. It was bad and she got annoyed. They pulled him out of line and into a back room and the crowd applauded. I hope they did a cavity search. 

They opened my small travel bag and then waved me through.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

They serve no benefit whatsoever.   They shouldn't be privatized.  They shouldn't exist.  I don't care where they find jobs.   Fast food would be the most similar skillset match, although they would have to step it up to hang.

So no security?

Posted

I previously owned a little cabinet / millwork shop as part of my general contracting business.  I had it for roughly five years, the last three of which it operated on it's own income statement as a division of the larger business, but not as an independent entity.  It was always about break-even, but filled a niche for our business, so I kept it around.  

In late 2023, we started to get pretty slow.  So, I sold it to my employees (two brothers) as an asset sale 1/1/24.  They bought the fabrication equipment, and a few other assets and took over the rent.  No A/R, no liabilities, no nothing.  Just an easy transactional sale.

It ended up being the greatest thing ever for BOTH parties.  I wasn't focused on it, and it was at a remote location away from our HQ, so it was a rudderless ship and never destined to grow with me continuing to be involved.  On their side of the fence, their productivity was lousy and we had some quality issues at the end as well.  They were paid a great salary (above market), and had good benefits, but I felt like they weren't profitable, so it was hard to bonus off that to drive better performance.  And they never saw any incentive to work harder, so they admittedly were doing a half-assed job.  So, it was a catch-22.  They were also burdened by the overhead of my company, so they didn't feel like they could market / sell to other companies because my target margins were too high to cover those expenses. 

I saw them last week.  They were down YOY compared to 2023 revenue, but they BOTH made way more money.  They have their own website and are selling to other contractors and homeowners.  I couldn't be happier for them.

They don't need/want the benefits we offer.  They're now more efficient, produce better quality, and were operating with an independent contractor mindset rather than the perspective of being a cog in a much bigger wheel where they can fly under the radar, and do just enough to keep a paycheck.  They're getting after it and cranking out work instead of trying to do things that we needed for our company, but don't necessarily benefit them directly.  They're operating a simpler business that's making more money.  And, I'm benefitting from it because their prices to me (with their profit built-in), are now MUCH lower than my cost was with them in-house.  It's an absolute win-win.

Sometimes, we all get complacent.  Both employers and employees.  I admittedly failed as a leader with my cabinet shop.  And they admittedly didn't perform like they should have when they worked for me.

It sucks for the people that do work hard and contribute but are faced with losing their jobs.  And, I do worry that we'll see the pendulum swing too far the other direction which may lead to disruptions in federal services or worse.  But, I think the end result is a net positive.  We may be adding more people to the workforce, but hopefully that lifts the bar for productivity and output.  Go kick ass in your job, make money (or save money) for your company (or the US taxpayer), and work your hardest to be underpaid every day so you can justify that promotion or raise.  Or have the balls to go out on your own and do it yourself.  That mindset should be the same in both the public and private sector, and I'm optimistic this is at least a representation of that mindset.  

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Spaulding Smails said:

It sucks for the people that do work hard and contribute but are faced with losing their jobs.  And, I do worry that we'll see the pendulum swing too far the other direction which may lead to disruptions in federal services or worse.  But, I think the end result is a net positive.  We may be adding more people to the workforce, but hopefully that lifts the bar for productivity and output.  Go kick ass in your job, make money (or save money) for your company (or the US taxpayer), and work your hardest to be underpaid every day so you can justify that promotion or raise.  Or have the balls to go out on your own and do it yourself.  That mindset should be the same in both the public and private sector, and I'm optimistic this is at least a representation of that mindset.  

Good thoughts, but see the highlighted part.  There is no reason for such optimism here.

I've seen/been part of (before, during, after) multiple such shifts, reorganizations, disruptions, etc. over the years.  Sometimes they're successful, sometimes they're failures.....often, they end up about where they started out, because while it may seem like they aren't being run/organized as well as they should be....it turns out that processes and approaches that developed over decades of experience developed that way for a reason.

When they succeed, it's almost always because the people in the new regime are competent, smart, and can dispense with and get past legacy personal interests/investments/ossification of processes (e.g., the organization does it this way because the accounting team came up with that approach, and they are personally invested in seeing their approach vindicated).  I've definitely seen it happen, including an example I'm thinking of (a Texas entity) which got a pretty Republican GM appointed by a Republican governor (to show y'all that this isn't about partisanship).  He came in, took a birds-eye view of things, made some targeted but significant personnel and process changes, resolved long-standing disputes, resulting in a streamlined, efficient, less-bullshit entity.

And when they fail....its ALSO almost always because of the people leading the charge.  People who come in enamored with their "I'm an outsider" mindset, who don't bother to take the time to understand the core mission of the entity (including consideration of whether that SHOULD be the mission) just start moving shit around and breaking shit without understanding what those things actually do, or why they're in place.  It results in whatever longtime staff is left having to scramble to try to keep important things running (with mixed success), and a shitload of pain for a good period of time.  And then eventually, the powers at the top (a board, senior political officials, etc.) get tired of hearing the valid complaints of the people served by the entity, and they bring someone in to right the ship.  Disruption for the sake of disruption, without putting a keen eye on things and truly listening and learning, significantly increases the chance of failure and short-term harm to people who don't deserve it.

TLDR; shake-ups can be bad, they can be good, depends on the motivation and skillset of the people driving it.  Being that this is being driven by a psychotic narcissist and 20 year old know-nothings with similarly giant narcissist egos.....gives me reason for nothing but pessimism.

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Posted
3 hours ago, kevwun said:

It will also be a 1,000 dumb things like now it takes 6 months to renew your passport, if you're lucky.

My mother just renewed her passport in like 10 days online, and not via fast-track. She was so shocked that she called me just for that.

Posted
3 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

there is 0.0% chance that anything close to 75% of the federal workforce will be cut.  I wonder how some of you have real life jobs.  

I get paid to speak hyperbole.

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Posted
52 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So no security?

We could roll back to the system before the TSA.  It worked just as well.  There was still security, it just wasn't such a clusterfuck.  Test after test of the TSA shows they don't catch shit other than lots of people who forget to put medical devices, etc. in a separate compartment or take off their shoes or  whatever new dumbass rule based on nothing they require.  I've got TSA pre-check, Clear, and Global Entry so I don't typically have to deal with most of the bullshit other than the lines, but air travel still takes twice as long as it used to and for no reason whatsoever.  If it made anyone safer, I'd support it, but I don't like having my time wasted on bad theater.   

One of my favorite bullshit rules is the liquids in small containers in a separate plastic bag.  I've never done it. Not once since they implemented the policy 20+ years ago.  I've never been asked a single thing.  My wife gets harrassed every time she has a liquid in a container a tenth of an oz over the limit.  she must look like trouble and I don't, I guess, but the point is it's all for show and does nothing.  People can, and have, taken whatever the hell they want onto planes since TSA came along, up to and including firearms.   

Another favorite moment was when they wanted to physically search my seven-year-old daughter because they thought the bath bomb in her suitcase that her grandmother gave her for Christmas was an actual bomb (fucking geniuses).  I told them the little pink suitcase was my bag, that it was my bathbomb, and they wouldn't be touching my daughter without trouble. They went along with it and searched me instead.  They wanted to go to a private room, but I made them do it in front of everyone, so lots of folks got a nice view during the pants-dropping portion.  It's all a joke.  And I guess you were right earlier when you asked who touched me at the TSA, because I did get a nice "hey how are you" that day.  

There are good people who work for the TSA, of course.  It's a job and I don't blame anyone for working a job.  The system is stupid, pointless, and serves no one, however.  I can' think of a bigger waste of taxpayer money.

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Posted
3 hours ago, kevwun said:

It will also be a 1,000 dumb things like now it takes 6 months to renew your passport, if you're lucky.

You can get an expedited passport appointment if you show up at a passport center with an overseas reservation that is dated within 14 days of the passport request.  Since New Orleans is a regional passport, center, I made several fully refundable Southwest flights to Cancun reservations, and kept trying to get an expedited appointment.  I canceled the first reservation the day before the flight, as I could not get an appointment in New Orleans that week - but on my second attempt the next week I was able to go down the very next day and get my passport within two hours. I then canceled the second Cancun flight. The next month when I flew to New Zealand I had my shiny new passport in my hands.

Granted, this only works if you have access to a regional passport center.  I think San Antonio has one.  But if you are near a regional passport center, it’s pretty damn easy to do a workaround and get your passport ASAP.

Posted
4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

The number of posters here who are opposed to auditing/fine-tooth-combing federal spending is probably zero.

It's just that sane people know that the way you do so is not "nuke everything and give 19 year old psychopaths full access to top secret materials."

Exactly this. I think probably everyone (probably zero opposed) would be fine with a fine tooth auditing and cutting of 10% of the fat which undoubtedly, over the years as the human capital and redundancy debt has built up in agencies, there is. But that's being prescriptive and taking a scalpal to the patient.

What DOGE is doing is doing surgery with a machete and just hacking away at 75% of the body and hoping that all you need is a brain, one eye, one nostril and half an ear is good enough.

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Posted
2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

I agree. Layoffs suck. Workday eg announced layoffs of 8.5% of their employees, around 1800 people. Same principles apply: the coffe shop employees, the dry cleaners etc etc that have supported these folks are in jeopardy. 
 

The assertion though that federal employees will be able to jump in whole cloth and take existing private sector jobs is one I am pushing back on. Some might, i just don’t see it at scale. 

Pretty ironic considering they’re in business to make other people’s jobs obsolete  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Spaulding Smails said:

I previously owned a little cabinet / millwork shop as part of my general contracting business.  I had it for roughly five years, the last three of which it operated on it's own income statement as a division of the larger business, but not as an independent entity.  It was always about break-even, but filled a niche for our business, so I kept it around.  

In late 2023, we started to get pretty slow.  So, I sold it to my employees (two brothers) as an asset sale 1/1/24.  They bought the fabrication equipment, and a few other assets and took over the rent.  No A/R, no liabilities, no nothing.  Just an easy transactional sale.

It ended up being the greatest thing ever for BOTH parties.  I wasn't focused on it, and it was at a remote location away from our HQ, so it was a rudderless ship and never destined to grow with me continuing to be involved.  On their side of the fence, their productivity was lousy and we had some quality issues at the end as well.  They were paid a great salary (above market), and had good benefits, but I felt like they weren't profitable, so it was hard to bonus off that to drive better performance.  And they never saw any incentive to work harder, so they admittedly were doing a half-assed job.  So, it was a catch-22.  They were also burdened by the overhead of my company, so they didn't feel like they could market / sell to other companies because my target margins were too high to cover those expenses. 

I saw them last week.  They were down YOY compared to 2023 revenue, but they BOTH made way more money.  They have their own website and are selling to other contractors and homeowners.  I couldn't be happier for them.

They don't need/want the benefits we offer.  They're now more efficient, produce better quality, and were operating with an independent contractor mindset rather than the perspective of being a cog in a much bigger wheel where they can fly under the radar, and do just enough to keep a paycheck.  They're getting after it and cranking out work instead of trying to do things that we needed for our company, but don't necessarily benefit them directly.  They're operating a simpler business that's making more money.  And, I'm benefitting from it because their prices to me (with their profit built-in), are now MUCH lower than my cost was with them in-house.  It's an absolute win-win.

Sometimes, we all get complacent.  Both employers and employees.  I admittedly failed as a leader with my cabinet shop.  And they admittedly didn't perform like they should have when they worked for me.

It sucks for the people that do work hard and contribute but are faced with losing their jobs.  And, I do worry that we'll see the pendulum swing too far the other direction which may lead to disruptions in federal services or worse.  But, I think the end result is a net positive.  We may be adding more people to the workforce, but hopefully that lifts the bar for productivity and output.  Go kick ass in your job, make money (or save money) for your company (or the US taxpayer), and work your hardest to be underpaid every day so you can justify that promotion or raise.  Or have the balls to go out on your own and do it yourself.  That mindset should be the same in both the public and private sector, and I'm optimistic this is at least a representation of that mindset.  

Thanks for sharing this, this is amazing and good for you for the insight and analysis (lessons learned) to share.

Posted
3 hours ago, kevwun said:

It will also be a 1,000 dumb things like now it takes 6 months to renew your passport, if you're lucky.

Huh?  It took six weeks to renew my kids’ passports a few months ago.

Posted

I'm actually looking at this from the other perspective, as a private sector worker.

I see this as (admittedly, selfishly) a good opportunity for those like me who would love to get in on a federal job in the next 5-10 years:

1) The best case for that would be Trump coming in and flushing everyone down the toilet as he seems intent on doing.

2) Destroying the federal agencies and causing chaos and insanity for 4 years.

3) And then the D's starting in 2028 putting out a 10 year roadmap plan on how to rebuild (and rehire en masse).

4) And by then hopefully I can get in, do another 20 years and retire with that federal pension money.

????

Profit.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Huh?  It took six weeks to renew my kids’ passports a few months ago.

That's the point, it works well right now.  Until the department who handles it gets gutted.  Now imagine doing that to every other government function and service.  In every dept there are people who know their job and the systems and processes backwards and forwards.  They make sure the dept functions.  Get rid of those people suddenly with no one trained to replace them or any kind of plan in place in general and watch every government agency turn in to a shitshow overnight.

Edited by kevwun
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Posted
22 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

We could roll back to the system before the TSA.  It worked just as well.  There was still security, it just wasn't such a clusterfuck.  Test after test of the TSA shows they don't catch shit other than lots of people who forget to put medical devices, etc. in a separate compartment or take off their shoes or  whatever new dumbass rule based on nothing they require.  I've got TSA pre-check, Clear, and Global Entry so I don't typically have to deal with most of the bullshit other than the lines, but air travel still takes twice as long as it used to and for no reason whatsoever.  If it made anyone safer, I'd support it, but I don't like having my time wasted on bad theater.   

One of my favorite bullshit rules is the liquids in small containers in a separate plastic bag.  I've never done it. Not once since they implemented the policy 20+ years ago.  I've never been asked a single thing.  My wife gets harrassed every time she has a liquid in a container a tenth of an oz over the limit.  she must look like trouble and I don't, I guess, but the point is it's all for show and does nothing.  People can, and have, taken whatever the hell they want onto planes since TSA came along, up to and including firearms.   

Another favorite moment was when they wanted to physically search my seven-year-old daughter because they thought the bath bomb in her suitcase

that her grandmother gave her for Christmas was an actual bomb (fucking geniuses).  I told them the little pink suitcase was my bag, that it was my bathbomb, and they wouldn't be touching my daughter without trouble. They went along with it and searched me instead.  They wanted to go to a private room, but I made them do it in front of everyone, so lots of folks got a nice view during the pants-dropping portion.  It's all a joke.  And I guess you were right earlier when you asked who touched me at the TSA, because I did get a nice "hey how are you" that day.  

There are good people who work for the TSA, of course.  It's a job and I don't blame anyone for working a job.  The system is stupid, pointless, and serves no one, however.  I can' think of a bigger waste of taxpayer money.

I have no problem with the TSA going away.  Are they being targeted by DOGE?

Most disagreements here seem to be over how federal government downsizing is carried out.  I would like to see it done in a controlled and responsible fashion with A) empathy for people that are only guilty of accepting a job and doing what was asked of them in civil service and B) an eye on effects to the broader economy, jobs market and reliability of necessary government services.

Those concerns seem to be an afterthought at best.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Goredho said:

 I would like to see it done in a controlled and responsible fashion with A) empathy for people that are only guilty of accepting a job and doing what was asked of them in civil service and B) an eye on effects to the broader economy, jobs market and reliability of necessary government services.

Afterthought?  Your A, B, and C are expressly designated as ENEMIES of the current process.

Again, the very same people who screamed about "unelected bureaucrats controlling our spending!" are happy to hand over control of all of our spending to.....an unelected oligarch and his band of sociopath child interns.  Fucking hell.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I have no problem with the TSA going away.  Are they being targeted by DOGE?

Most disagreements here seem to be over how federal government downsizing is carried out.  I would like to see it done in a controlled and responsible fashion with A) empathy for people that are only guilty of accepting a job and doing what was asked of them in civil service and B) an eye on effects to the broader economy, jobs market and reliability of necessary government services.

Those concerns seem to be an afterthought at best.

I have not heard they are being targeted.  Someone mentioned it upthread.  Apologies for the derail.

I agree with your sentiments as to how any downsizing should be handled.  But we've sent in an unelected con artist with a penchant for the grift and little else due to a myopic intelligence and outsized level of self-importance to hack away with a dull chainsaw.  This shit is not going to work out until some actual adults come in and clean up the mess at some point down the line. If the end result is a more efficient federal government, great, but the stated goal of DOGE and the actual actions are not exactly lining up.   Self-service is taking place, but little else.  I'm just hoping there is still something left to repair in the end, but I'm also fearing how much it's going to cost to fix all of the broken shit and what taxation over the next three decades is going to look like.  I predict pain.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Afterthought?  Your A, B, and C are expressly designated as ENEMIES of the current process.

Again, the very same people who screamed about "unelected bureaucrats controlling our spending!" are happy to hand over control of all of our spending to.....an unelected oligarch and his band of sociopath child interns.  Fucking hell.

batman.gif
 

This conversation is for everyone else.

Posted (edited)

Pain is the only thing the American people understand and they're going to get their fill of it.

Edited by kevwun
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Posted
44 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

4) And by then hopefully I can get in, do another 20 years and retire with that federal pension money.

 

Not sure of serious

 

I’ll paint with an over broad brush but I can’t think of a federal employee I have ever gotten to know that didn’t absolutely loathe their job.  
 

City/County employees seems something like 50/50

State slides more towards fed discontent.

 

Also it seems like the longer the tenure the worse it gets.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Goredho said:

Trump has already shown he will pause or backoff if he's given a reason to do it and a path that includes saving face.  If a republican governor calls the White House and says this or that is going to harm too many people that vote the right way, Elon's efforts will be adjusted.  Like, I seriously doubt Trump would allow the VA to be gutted and made worse.  He wouldn't want to damage support among the military.

So I doubt 75% of government employees are cut.  Maybe it's 65%, maybe it's 30%.  If it's 20 percent, it will be 600,000 people and an order of magnitude larger than the largest layoff in our nation's history.  They don't have to get anywhere near 75% to create a massive amount of jobless Americans.

there are 18-20m job shootings per year in the us, with the outlier being the 40m due to the rona in 20, and 15m of those were in march and april of 20.

https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-people-are-laid-off-each-month/country/united-states/

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
34 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Pain is the only thing the American people understand and they're going to get their fill of it.

Well they voted for it. Let them have it. 

idiots 

Posted
5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

The number of posters here who are opposed to auditing/fine-tooth-combing federal spending is probably zero.

It's just that sane people know that the way you do so is not "nuke everything and give 19 year old psychopaths full access to top secret materials."

19 year-olds who may be Canadian citizens.

Would love to know how he got top secret secret access.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

there are 18-20m job shootings per year in the us, with the outlier being the 40m due to the rona in 20, and 15m of those were in march and april of 20.

https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-people-are-laid-off-each-month/country/united-states/

I appreciate the data link.  Thanks.  Maybe adding a million out of work federal employees to the steady state of terminated employees in a year will be a blip for those employees and everyone else?  Regardless, we will see soon enough.

I was going by largest layoffs in the private sector for a single employer in a single year:

IBM: Currently, the all-time record for the largest corporate job cut belongs to tech company IBM, which laid off 60,000 people in 1993, the same year it posted an $8 billion loss.

Sears: Sears, Roebuck & Co. cut 50,000 jobs and closed 113 stores in 1993.

Citigroup cut 50,000 jobs amid the 2008 financial crisis.

Posted

if the plan is to let private industry pick up the slack, a lot of former federal employees will have job offers. pay and benefits will probably suck. their new companies won't give a shit if they work from home or not 

Posted

Some perspective to get a baseline handle on things.

How Many Federal Worker Resignations Would Be a Lot?
Sixty-five thousand have submitted resignations as part of Elon Musk’s “fork in the road” offer. But 150,000 voluntarily leave every year anyway.

image.png.aa2a83de3bff4d16d9192adef6392023.png

When the federal Office of Personnel Management first proposed a “deferred resignation” package to induce federal workers to quit last week, Elon Musk circulated an estimate that the offer could lure 5 to 10 percent of the government’s work force to leave. That estimate so far looks like an overshoot.

By midday Friday, with the original Thursday deadline to accept the offer now paused by a federal judge, more than 65,000 workers had planned to resign, said McLaurine Pinover, a spokesperson for O.P.M. That number — which could still rise further amid legal uncertainty — represents less than 3 percent of all 2.3 million federal workers, excluding the military and Postal Service.

For perspective, about 150,000 federal workers, or 7 percent, voluntarily leave the government every year. The scale of resignations submitted as of Friday — offered in exchange for seven months of pay and benefits — would be the equivalent of five months’ worth of departures, many of which might have happened this year anyway.

In other words, the federal government is an enormous work force that already experiences sizable turnover every year. In addition to workers who leave the government to retire or simply to quit, about another 50,000 to 60,000 are terminated every year for disciplinary or performance reasons, or because their appointments or funds expired. A small number — around 3,400 — die each year while employed by the government. All these departures are typically replaced by about 240,000 hires each year.

image.png.aa2d9ff8cd46b31db6ca4c28b54129e7.png

President Trump and Mr. Musk are also aiming to reduce the work force by squeezing this second group — new employees — through a hiring freeze for large portions of federal workers. In terms of reducing total head count, the hiring freeze could matter more than encouraging resignations.

Now the resignations that have been submitted may not even go through. On Thursday afternoon, a federal judge in Massachusetts froze the plan in response to a lawsuit by several employee unions who challenged the government’s legal authority to make such an offer. A hearing is scheduled for Monday.

With the resignation plan and its legal status now uncertain, the federal government was moving swiftly this week to prepare for additional cuts, sending staff reduction targets to health and science agencies and more.

Recently hired federal employees also typically work on a probationary basis for the first year (or longer at some agencies) and are easier to fire during that time. The Trump administration appears to be preparing to reduce the work force by targeting these workers. Several agencies have already been asked to share lists of such vulnerable employees.

But even with involuntary layoffs, achieving Mr. Musk’s goal of major budgetary savings through staff reductions cannot easily be achieved without reductions in workers who provide popular public services.

Average pay for federal workers is about $106,000, meaning the annual savings from salary alone, just to use 65,000 workers as a benchmark, could amount to around $6.9 billion per year (Mr. Musk has said the broader goal of his Department of Government Efficiency is to cut government spending by $4 billion a day). The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the government spent roughly $271 billion compensating federal civilian employees in 2022, with more than half of that going to the Department of Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Homeland Security.

image.png.64e668a975805319817558d99091eb0d.png

Among agencies where cuts may prove politically perilous, Veterans Affairs is the largest employer in the government. The V.A. runs a network of hospitals and health clinics around the country for military veterans. The department has already exempted hundreds of thousands of these health care workers from the government-wide hiring freeze announced by President Trump on his first day in office.

Mr. Trump has also exempted several other categories of workers shown above, including in the Department of Homeland Security, which carries out immigration enforcement, and in the Department of Defense.

The I.R.S. this week also told some employees trying to resign now that they could not take leave under the deferred resignation until after May 15, an apparent acknowledgment that mass departures now could disrupt tax filing season for millions of Americans.

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Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

Glad my tax refund came through before the shit show

Refund? I'm scared to death of how much I will owe this year and delaying the inevitable. The one positive outcome from this goat rodeo is if the IRS was somehow neutered and fell apart, but I'm just not that lucky. I expect to be charged double by mistake and have zero recourse.

  • Like 1
Posted

If you're wondering where the laid off/fired government employees are going to go, who do you think will be expected to build our buildings, pick and process our food, and bus our tables after the deportations are done?

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