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Posted
On 2/13/2025 at 8:39 PM, Surly Bevo said:

Chances will rise until they most likely drop to zero as we get more observations, and it could fuck some shit up between South America and India, or it could land in the ocean.  Not close to a global killer

 

That’s a trip to the think about, “change the universe around us”.  

Posted
15 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I found out I work with a flat earther. Not at all surprised, having known him for like 5 years, but it’s still a shock when it comes out. 

Ask him where the edges are. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

Ask him where the edges are. 

And how you can sail all the way around without falling off.  I assume the answer is something like this:

Level 1: Space is a Doughnut – TOM ROCKS MATHS

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Posted
On 2/15/2025 at 1:58 AM, futureman said:

I want it to be on a collision course with earth just to see how it's dealt with.  elon or NASA or china or someone else or everyone together will figure out how to blow it up or nudge it off course and it'll be very interesting to follow.  that thing is never hitting earth, thankfully.  the horns might win it all in 2032.

elon will hopefully not be above ground by then

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Posted
On 2/15/2025 at 1:36 AM, Enemy07 said:

If I remember correctly from my astronomy class, the chances of Earth getting hit by a devastating asteroid are astronomically low. I think Earth has a higher chance of getting hit by a piece of moon being broken off and gravity shooting it toward here. If, of course, the gravitational pull of the sun and earth line up correctly, for that broken piece of moon to have a 100% trajectory towards Earth. But my intelligence of math and calculations are merely at a financial, economical, and business level. And I would enjoy reading responses from physicist and advanced mathematicians.

So Im definitely going to toss out the precise calculations performed by the world’s most esteemed scientists who say there is a 2% chance of the event, and instead bet on some amateur bull crap based on your college astrology class and declaration that the chances are infinitesimal. 

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Posted
On 2/15/2025 at 4:42 PM, Biff Tannen said:

I found out I work with a flat earther. Not at all surprised, having known him for like 5 years, but it’s still a shock when it comes out. 

Ask him what happens when the asteroid hits flat earth. Does it make a hole through it like a doughnut?

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Posted

They are going to track it with the James Webb Space Telescope to get a better measurement of its exact orbit. The reason that the probability is not either 0% or 100% is because the orbit is not known precisely enough. Whether it will hit or not is already completely determined, we just don't know the answer yet. But a very good orbit determination will hopefully settle it.

 

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Posted

Yea if you watch the Manley video I posted a while back he says very likely that as more observations come in odds of impact will go up and that at some point they will either keep going up or just drop to 0%

Posted
8 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Thought they determined that the area it would hit was from like Guyana to Kuwait?

Per the posted YouTube clip, the asteroid would likely impact somewhere along this red line.

image.thumb.png.785244c0973a4ae645389caa1bbf34e8.png

Posted
26 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Per the posted YouTube clip, the asteroid would likely impact somewhere along this red line.

image.thumb.png.785244c0973a4ae645389caa1bbf34e8.png

As if the poor bastards living along that line don't have enough shit to deal with. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

As if the poor bastards living along that line don't have enough shit to deal with. 

On the bright side, they won't have to worry about the other shit after the astroid hits. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Wait, do they have a shitty men’s basketball coach too? Because man…that’s getting old.

You post this in response to someone who went to Washington? We have our own big-ass ledge for that.

The asteroid would be a vast improvement....

Posted (edited)

The asteroid that killed most of what you think of as dinosaurs was ~6-9 miles in diameter. It killed ~75% of life on earth, but a bunch of dinosaurs still made it through. There are currently twice as many bird species, as there are mammal species. 

This thing sounds like a baby at 100-300 feet across, but that puts the minimum estimate (100 foot diameter) as a Tunguska explosion sized blast, which would be cataclysmic regionally.

For reference, Hiroshima was ~16 kilotons, Nagasaki was ~21 kilotons.

The Tunguska explosion happened in 1908 in the middle of Siberia. Tunguska was 3-50 megatons, most common estimate is ~15 megatons, close to 1000X the Hiroshima atomic bomb.

Tunguska may have been an asteroid, or maybe a comet, but whatever it was, likely airburst at an altitude of ~6 miles. It leveled ~800 sq. miles of trees and charred ~100 sq. miles of trees adjacent to the blast. 

 

image.thumb.png.a77ecd0f412a768b806a15bd6a9fac10.png

 

image.png.a3dacb9adc0401740f00f079c4f12575.png

 

People felt the explosion in London and were able to see the light from it on the east coast of the US.

15 megatons is the most common estimate for Tunguska, so here's a nuke map estimate of a 15 megaton explosion hitting Houston.  

 

image.thumb.png.da4c26473007046aad6fd98906a58214.png

 

100% probability of 3rd degree burns all the way from Sugar Land to La Porte. Again, this is the minimum predicted size, the asteroid could be up to 3X bigger. 

If this asteroid does hit, it's going to obliterate anything it hits, so hope for the ocean. 

The track posted upthread goes right over Mumbai, Calcutta and everything in between them, then Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. All of those are ~20 million each. Also Lagos at >13 million, Bogota at >10 million among others. For even the minimum possible size estimate, if it hit one of them, the death toll would be in the millions.

NASA made physical contact with a ~500 foot asteroid a couple of years ago, so hopefully no one working on that project has been purged. That institutional knowledge could wind up being pretty important. 

 

Edited by Pods
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Posted
2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Meh. I’ll reserve judgement until @Enemy07 consults his college astronomy class book. 

I want to know what Helobious has to say so we know that definitively the opposite will happen.

Posted
6 hours ago, Pods said:

15 megatons is the most common estimate for Tunguska, so here's a nuke map estimate of a 15 megaton explosion hitting Houston.  

 

image.thumb.png.da4c26473007046aad6fd98906a58214.png

 

 

Useless - the Woodlands survives.

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Posted
7 hours ago, Pods said:

The asteroid that killed most of what you think of as dinosaurs was ~6-9 miles in diameter. It killed ~75% of life on earth, but a bunch of dinosaurs still made it through. There are currently twice as many bird species, as there are mammal species. 

This thing sounds like a baby at 100-300 feet across, but that puts the minimum estimate (100 foot diameter) as a Tunguska explosion sized blast, which would be cataclysmic regionally.

For reference, Hiroshima was ~16 kilotons, Nagasaki was ~21 kilotons.

The Tunguska explosion happened in 1908 in the middle of Siberia. Tunguska was 3-50 megatons, most common estimate is ~15 megatons, close to 1000X the Hiroshima atomic bomb.

Tunguska may have been an asteroid, or maybe a comet, but whatever it was, likely airburst at an altitude of ~6 miles. It leveled ~800 sq. miles of trees and charred ~100 sq. miles of trees adjacent to the blast. 

 

image.thumb.png.a77ecd0f412a768b806a15bd6a9fac10.png

 

image.png.a3dacb9adc0401740f00f079c4f12575.png

 

People felt the explosion in London and were able to see the light from it on the east coast of the US.

15 megatons is the most common estimate for Tunguska, so here's a nuke map estimate of a 15 megaton explosion hitting Houston.  

 

image.thumb.png.da4c26473007046aad6fd98906a58214.png

 

100% probability of 3rd degree burns all the way from Sugar Land to La Porte. Again, this is the minimum predicted size, the asteroid could be up to 3X bigger. 

If this asteroid does hit, it's going to obliterate anything it hits, so hope for the ocean. 

The track posted upthread goes right over Mumbai, Calcutta and everything in between them, then Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. All of those are ~20 million each. Also Lagos at >13 million, Bogota at >10 million among others. For even the minimum possible size estimate, if it hit one of them, the death toll would be in the millions.

NASA made physical contact with a ~500 foot asteroid a couple of years ago, so hopefully no one working on that project has been purged. That institutional knowledge could wind up being pretty important. 

 

 

so you're saying there's a chance?

 

 

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Posted
17 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

Yea if you watch the Manley video I posted a while back he says very likely that as more observations come in odds of impact will go up and that at some point they will either keep going up or just drop to 0%

Either go up or drop to zero? Man, that's good stuff. Sounds like a smart guy.

Posted

Seriously though... by the time it is observable again in 2028, we should be able to determine location and timing of strike and then weigh the cost-benefit of intervening to modify trajectory or evacuating the impact site.  There is absolutely no reason that this should kill millions of people.

 

Posted

I think that the exact size of this asteroid is still not known well, so we don't know how much of an impact it will make yet. The estimates are based on how bright the asteroid is, and then if you assume that it is made of stuff that is of 'average brightness', then you can figure out how big the asteroid must be to be as bright as it is. The problem, is that there is no certainty that it is made of average material, so it could be smaller (good) or larger (bad) than the estimates. I think the JWST observations are expected to improve this measurement as well.

 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Seriously though... by the time it is observable again in 2028, we should be able to determine location and timing of strike and then weigh the cost-benefit of intervening to modify trajectory or evacuating the impact site.  There is absolutely no reason that this should kill millions of people.

Elon Musk Smoking GIF

I can think of a few reasons we may not have the expertise or capacity for such a thing....

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Posted
10 hours ago, Pods said:

The asteroid that killed most of what you think of as dinosaurs was ~6-9 miles in diameter. It killed ~75% of life on earth, but a bunch of dinosaurs still made it through. There are currently twice as many bird species, as there are mammal species. 

This thing sounds like a baby at 100-300 feet across, but that puts the minimum estimate (100 foot diameter) as a Tunguska explosion sized blast, which would be cataclysmic regionally.

For reference, Hiroshima was ~16 kilotons, Nagasaki was ~21 kilotons.

The Tunguska explosion happened in 1908 in the middle of Siberia. Tunguska was 3-50 megatons, most common estimate is ~15 megatons, close to 1000X the Hiroshima atomic bomb.

Tunguska may have been an asteroid, or maybe a comet, but whatever it was, likely airburst at an altitude of ~6 miles. It leveled ~800 sq. miles of trees and charred ~100 sq. miles of trees adjacent to the blast. 

 

image.thumb.png.a77ecd0f412a768b806a15bd6a9fac10.png

 

image.png.a3dacb9adc0401740f00f079c4f12575.png

 

People felt the explosion in London and were able to see the light from it on the east coast of the US.

15 megatons is the most common estimate for Tunguska, so here's a nuke map estimate of a 15 megaton explosion hitting Houston.  

 

image.thumb.png.da4c26473007046aad6fd98906a58214.png

 

100% probability of 3rd degree burns all the way from Sugar Land to La Porte. Again, this is the minimum predicted size, the asteroid could be up to 3X bigger. 

If this asteroid does hit, it's going to obliterate anything it hits, so hope for the ocean. 

The track posted upthread goes right over Mumbai, Calcutta and everything in between them, then Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. All of those are ~20 million each. Also Lagos at >13 million, Bogota at >10 million among others. For even the minimum possible size estimate, if it hit one of them, the death toll would be in the millions.

NASA made physical contact with a ~500 foot asteroid a couple of years ago, so hopefully no one working on that project has been purged. That institutional knowledge could wind up being pretty important. 

 

I mean that's neat and all but the odds of it hitting any of those places is way lower than 2.5% or whatever they're giving it of actually landing. 

They can create tsunamis if they land in the ocean, though, correct?

Surfs Up Surf GIF by Red Bull

Posted
On 2/15/2025 at 6:49 PM, Bender Bending Rodriguez said:

lol.. and the music to this scene is her dad singing the Armageddon song 

I’ve never thought of this. It just sent me through the cosmos.

Posted
On 2/18/2025 at 11:46 AM, Anastasis said:

Apparently probability increased to 2.6% now. 

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/

 

Alternate Representations for Impact Probability = 2.6e-2
2.6% chance of Earth impact
1 in 38 odds of impact
97.4% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

 

22 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Up to 3.1% now. LOL. 

So about the same odds as roulette - alwaysbetonblack.gif.ecd9d5f4392cb1cdc2efaf43826f298f.gif

Posted
33 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Seriously though... by the time it is observable again in 2028, we should be able to determine location and timing of strike and then weigh the cost-benefit of intervening to modify trajectory or evacuating the impact site.  There is absolutely no reason that this should kill millions of people.

Oh.  You still think that something - anything - will be done for the common/collective good by 2028.  You're adorable.

Elon will offer to send up a SpaceX mission for the low-low price of $2 trillion per nation state.  And we will threaten to shoot down any rival mission.

Y'all really haven't been paying any attention, have you?  If it ain't for billionaire profit, it doesn't happen.

Posted
17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh.  You still think that something - anything - will be done for the common/collective good by 2028.  You're adorable.

Elon will offer to send up a SpaceX mission for the low-low price of $2 trillion per nation state.  And we will threaten to shoot down any rival mission.

Y'all really haven't been paying any attention, have you?  If it ain't for billionaire profit, it doesn't happen.

Not outside the realm of possibility that he might have inside knowledge that it's going to miss, subdue publication of that information, stoke hysteria, and come up with a very expensive "emergency savior to the rescue" plan, and "perform a miracle" to save the day from a non-event. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

Seriously though... by the time it is observable again in 2028, we should be able to determine location and timing of strike and then weigh the cost-benefit of intervening to modify trajectory or evacuating the impact site.  There is absolutely no reason that this should kill millions of people.

 

Not with THAT attitude it won't.

Posted
53 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh.  You still think that something - anything - will be done for the common/collective good by 2028.  You're adorable.

Elon will offer to send up a SpaceX mission for the low-low price of $2 trillion per nation state.  And we will threaten to shoot down any rival mission.

Y'all really haven't been paying any attention, have you?  If it ain't for billionaire profit, it doesn't happen.

I get that a lot of us are feeling hopeless and beat down over the last three months and especially the last few weeks, but c'mon man.

worktheproblem.gif.db8adfc1bdefbb2a3e955ab6d1d55e02.gif

Posted
24 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

I get that a lot of us are feeling hopeless and beat down over the last three months and especially the last few weeks, but c'mon man.

worktheproblem.gif.db8adfc1bdefbb2a3e955ab6d1d55e02.gif

We don't "work problems" anymore.  Working problems is woke.

Profiting at the expense of the public good is the only ethos allowed.  And that sure as shit predates the last month.  I didn't just build the ledge this year.

Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

We don't "work problems" anymore.  Working problems is woke.

Profiting at the expense of the public good is the only ethos allowed.  And that sure as shit predates the last month.  I didn't just build the ledge this year.

So this is it, huh?

wedie2.gif.cb0e5cdd1ab2d0ce3840557709a671b0.gif

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