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Posted
4 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

So how do I short the SP 500, Dow, etc?

You should probably sell long dated naked SPY calls.

In all seriousness, lots of ways to put your political convictions to the test in the market if you actually believe them.

 

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Like elections are ways to test libertarian campaign strategies?

Libertarians make for terrible politicians in this and most political environments. The best libertarian oriented politicians, e.g. Justin Amash, will find no or only limited political support. 

 

But none of that has as anything to do with some of you putting real chalk on table.  

Edited by Anastasis
Posted
2 hours ago, Disco Strangler said:

Dollar off the cliff means bread lines and bankruptcies and 401k wipeouts.  It also means that all professional sports and leisurely pursuits are wiped out.  Maybe the dipshits (us, collectively) wake up and realize that democracy requires adults + effort.  Who am I kidding?   We are fucked.  

Yeah it's getting harder and harder to envision an outcome that isn't a total catastrophe. Shit is going to get really dark. I wouldn't be surprised if suicide rates are already ticking up due to the constant stream of negative, fascistic, and stupid news, not to mention the many thousands of Americans whose livelihoods have already been seriously  injured by this regime. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Libertarians make for terrible politicians in this and most political environments. The best libertarian oriented politicians, e.g. Justin Amash, will find no or only limited political support. 

 

But none of that has as anything to do with some of you putting real chalk on table.  

Well, as usual, whatever the hell that means

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Posted
1 minute ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Which would make it pretty simple to state in your own words

Which you can read above just a few posts. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Yeah. I’m shorting all that. Sounds like the stupid shit I read about close to retirees pulling down their 401ks in Dec 2016. That didn’t work out so well. America shit is backstopped by aircraft carriers. You got way bigger problems if we have to deploy the backstop. Doesn’t mean that you should not be smart about redeploying your allocations. I’m still transitioning out of spy in shorter horizon plays. But you all should be buying ammo. 

I think the bigger problem will be us realizing our fleet is obsolete when SHTF with China 

Posted
Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

I think the bigger problem will be us realizing our fleet is obsolete when SHTF with China 

If we get overtaken by China or Russia it is only a result of the grift of the US MIC system, and not any reflection of our investment in the so called military industrial base. 

Chart: China Steps Up Military Spending | Statista

 

Posted
I think the bigger problem will be us realizing our fleet is obsolete when SHTF with China 

Or they have just been ripping us off all these years and didn’t have to do R&d
Posted

Oil and gas execs; the rubiest red of donors and voters think Trump’s economic plan licks Elon’s unwashed asshole.
*Click the post to read the excerpts. 
 

 

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Posted
6 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Trump really means the Gilded Age, between the Civil War and the turn of the 19th Century.  Which was a golden age for oligarchs and pretty shitty for the common man.

But we had no income tax, and big business ran roughshod.

The Gilded Age is a best case scenario. They had the Oligarchs. JP Morgan was doing his best Elon and consulting the President. However, I don't recall a full fascist regime being in the white house. 

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Posted

I’m sure in Trump’s pea brain “blue cities” seeing a decline in tourism is a win. His rotting lizard brain has no understanding of second and third order effects. The World Cup in 2026 is going to be a colossal fuck up. 
 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

I’m sure in Trump’s pea brain “blue cities” seeing a decline in tourism is a win. His rotting lizard brain has no understanding of second and third order effects. The World Cup in 2026 is going to be a colossal fuck up. 
 

 

Thanks a lot Obama... or Biden... or Hilary's emails

Posted

I have mostly stopped reading politics and political boards because of the level of stupidity. The mental gymnastics by Trump supporters especially in finance, wall street, bankers, etc is mind numbing stupid.

They are going to crash the economy and there is no 4D chess. It is all just stupid and unplanned.

Only coherent policy position is full on corruption.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, wackawacka said:

I have mostly stopped reading politics and political boards because of the level of stupidity. The mental gymnastics by Trump supporters especially in finance, wall street, bankers, etc is mind numbing stupid.

They are going to crash the economy and there is no 4D chess. It is all just stupid and unplanned.

Only coherent policy position is full on corruption.

And isolation. With the trade wars, the economic isolation is obvious. But there's also the physical isolation from making the prospect of coming here, even for tourists, so unpleasant no one does. And, if countries start retaliating against our citizens visiting elsewhere, we won't travel. Plus, we're already seeing academics/scientists, even American ones, beginning to flee.

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Posted
On 3/27/2025 at 10:31 PM, Updawg said:


Or they have just been ripping us off all these years and didn’t have to do R&d

If you look into the companies that make the ships and check out their board (look into HII) you'll find they really do seem to invest judiciously in R&D and acquisitions.  After checking them out and some of their competitors, it does seem that the defense department does a respectable job in not placing all their eggs in one basket as far as shipbuilding and maintenance goes, however that excludes a few classes of ships (carriers, nuke subs).  

 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Nivek said:

Pretty good interview overall.  


I agree with more than I thought.


However, I see some major flaws in this new right thinking when we start to get to issues of defense, multipolar world, spheres of influence, and American influence.

Actively choosing to go to a multipolar world like an early 20th century Europe / colonial  empires is lunacy. It’s like all these sunsetting boomers, gen x thinkers, and older millennials thought history died and ended when the internet was invented.

We’ve seen  the script before folks. Yes you have to think of the future,  but abandoning the idea of liberal democracy, liberal economic theory, and the idea of the equality / self determinate nation states is throwing the baby out with the bath water.

The pace of technology changes, the internet, social media, and now AI has so warped our brains that ‘move fast and break things’ has taken over all facets of our lives. 
God help us when we need cool headed thinkers, compromise, and rationality. 

 

Edited by Dnaguy
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Posted
15 hours ago, Dnaguy said:


I agree with more than I thought.


However, I see some major flaws in this new right thinking when we start to get to issues of defense, multipolar world, spheres of influence, and American influence.

Actively choosing to go to a multipolar world like an early 20th century Europe / colonial  empires is lunacy. It’s like all these sunsetting boomers, gen x thinkers, and older millennials thought history died and ended when the internet was invented.

We’ve seen  the script before folks. Yes you have to think of the future,  but abandoning the idea of liberal democracy, liberal economic theory, and the idea of the equality / self determinate nation states is throwing the baby out with the bath water.

The pace of technology changes, the internet, social media, and now AI has so warped our brains that ‘move fast and break things’ has taken over all facets of our lives. 
God help us when we need cool headed thinkers, compromise, and rationality. 

 

"Move fast and break things" is really not a bad idea when you are entering a new space where there is no road map and the consequences are largely inconsequential.   But as an economic strategy, it is a false cover for not taking the time to learn the history and situations one finds themselves in and can be disastrous to many.    I think what impressed me about him was that he did have some thought behind what he was arguing, even though I think it is flawed as well, I can appreciate that some of it was not completely out of ignorance, even if it is overly contextualized and narrow.   That this impresses me demonstrates how low I think of the right/conservatives.  

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

“Most” Americans don’t give a shit. They only care about themselves and have zero worldview. Not even half of Americans have a passport. 

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Posted
Just now, royiv said:

“Most” Americans don’t give a shit. They only care about themselves and have zero worldview. Not even half of Americans have a passport. 


like a dog with a laser pointer. 
 

TRANS SWIMMER

 

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Posted (edited)

So, Cass seems like a pretty reasonable guy.  But, he is by admission and criticism, a wonk and not super-big on implementation.  But compared to other conservative "intelligentsia," a breath of sane fresh air.

But some of his stuff veers toward "common good," and there are some dangerous, authoritarian ideas there.  I'd be interested to find out if he approves of those social ideas.

Also, Jon Stewart is really just fantastic.  Sharp, incisive, passionate when needed, civil, courteous and fun with a reasonable guy like Cass.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Posted (edited)

All those GenZ men just starting out who ‘couldn’t’ Get a job or a girl friend and thought Trump was the answer…..

Try getting either one of those in a recession.

Great job guys.

Signed-

Someone old enough to have been an adult during multiple recessions and who had real life shit at stake / lost their job during Covid.

PS:

Bruce Willis Party GIF by IFC

Edited by Dnaguy
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Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, Cass seems like a pretty reasonable guy.  But, he is by admission and criticism, a wonk and not super-big on implementation.  But compared to other conservative "intelligentsia," a breath of sane fresh air.

But some of his stuff veers toward "common good," and there are some dangerous, authoritarian ideas there.  I'd be interested to find out if he approves of those social ideas.

Also, Jon Stewart is really just fantastic.  Sharp, incisive, passionate when needed, civil, courteous and fun with a reasonable guy like Cass.

He veers into less insightful territory when it comes to (as you note) implementation.  He is downright incoherent when it comes to security and the international system— he can’t decided whether multipolarity is good and we should try to get it or whether it’s just inevitable and we need to manage it, which calls for very different prescriptions. 
 

And he’s guilty of a particular type of wishcasting that pervades this administration, which is float the idea of “U.S.-led alliances” but only if the U.S. doesn’t offer anything in particular to merit leadership but everyone should just go along. 
 

Trump and conservatives are not particularly creative or innovative in noting that allies need to begin shouldering additional defense burdens, and more of it actually happened under the previous admin.  Where the two part ways was the ability to actually retain U.S. leadership while the current trajectory is that they will keep rearming while also decoupling from the U.S., which is racing towards a world they don’t want to live in. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

He veers into less insightful territory when it comes to (as you note) implementation.  He is downright incoherent when it comes to security and the international system— he can’t decided whether multipolarity is good and we should try to get it or whether it’s just inevitable and we need to manage it, which calls for very different prescriptions. 
 

And he’s guilty of a particular type of wishcasting that pervades this administration, which is float the idea of “U.S.-led alliances” but only if the U.S. doesn’t offer anything in particular to merit leadership but everyone should just go along. 
 

Trump and conservatives are not particularly creative or innovative in noting that allies need to begin shouldering additional defense burdens, and more of it actually happened under the previous admin.  Where the two part ways was the ability to actually retain U.S. leadership while the current trajectory is that they will keep rearming while also decoupling from the U.S., which is racing towards a world they don’t want to live in. 

Like with a lot of things Trump, there's a tiny nugget of truth or accuracy in most of the things he does and says:  yes, Europe should have shouldered more of its defense burden; yes, immigration is fucked up; yes, we need not to be dependent on China for cheap shit or for strategically important products like integrated circuits, and the same goes for other countries, but to a far lesser degree.

But what he slathers onto that tiny nugget of truth to turn it into a giant, maggot-infested turd, and his solutions and implementations are complete shit.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:


image.gif.c8f40d2ec9a1b2dc05ef6e59b2da4c4a.gif

I seem to remember Jamie Dimon saying something along the lines of “tariffs are a little inflationary but they’re good for national security, so people just need to deal with it”.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

I seem to remember Jamie Dimon saying something along the lines of “tariffs are a little inflationary but they’re good for national security, so people just need to deal with it”.


we couldn’t make out the words because Trump’s old saggy, meatballs were in his mouth. 

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