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Posted
45 minutes ago, Underdog said:

President Weak-kneed flip flopping on China tariffs, we’ll see how much money his inner circle makes this go around on insider trading. 

To be clear isn’t the news just that he might flip flop on his trade war with China but hasn’t decided? Then the stocks all shot up based on hope and vibes? Bc economic outlook looks bleak over even just the next quarter. Recession, job losses, etc are only about a month away 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

To be clear isn’t the news just that he might flip flop on his trade war with China but hasn’t decided? Then the stocks all shot up based on hope and vibes? Bc economic outlook looks bleak over even just the next quarter. Recession, job losses, etc are only about a month away 

It's all vibes. Tesla shit the whole bed in their Q1 numbers and it's up 7%+ today. This is a hell of a way to run a country.

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Posted (edited)

This is the pump phase of the pump and dump. If you didn't buy on Monday, probably best to wait until Until the Orange Man from Queens loses his temper on Friday and fires up Truth Social on Sunday. 

 

Being serious:  All the economy's fundamentals are looking not great and getting worse. Buying and selling right now is like trying to time the market post Bear, pre Lehman.  The damage is done. It's all about hoping there are pieces to pick up on the other side. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted

The treasury secretary is essentially saying China needs to change their entire economy and the market is cheering it. At some point, you just have to laugh and buy. Again, Dems have to come up with better talking points than a lower market. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Can’t wait for the corporate tax cuts and stock buybacks to artificially inflate the market again. 

It is painfully clear that while there are savvy traders out there, most of Wall Street, even big money, doesn't understand the dysfunction at 1600 Penn at any level.  I mean, the neck beards on r/WSB might as well be the primary test subjects for RFK, Jr. autism trials. 

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Posted
Just now, Dr. Teeth said:

The treasury secretary is essentially saying China needs to change their entire economy and the market is cheering it. At some point, you just have to laugh and buy. Again, Dems have to come up with better talking points than a lower market. 

Yeah.  It's like Navarro and Trump ranting about VAT's.  I'm sure the entire rest of the world is just going to scrap their entire tax code because you said so. That's definitely going to happen. 

Posted (edited)

What is the fucking deal with VAT?  The only one with which I am familiar is Europe's, and it applies equally to domestic or imported goods purchased for consumption or use in Europe.

I cannot figure any way in which it affects trade balances.

I guess because it isn't charged on goods exported from Europe?  

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Posted
30 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

It's all vibes.

At this point, that statement is rock-solid truth.  That's because "reality" is so insane and impossible to calculate at present and predict in the future that it simply cannot form a basis for any business or valuation decisions.  When objective reality goes "poof," all you HAVE LEFT to base your decisions on is "vibes."  Which, of course, is a terrible place for an economy to be, because "vibes" aren't real either, and thus they can change 180 degrees in an instant without any external, objective event to cause that direction change.

The market and many stocks were more disconnected from reality and fundamentals than was healthy.  The Trump admin's approach to uprooting and trashing the entire global economy not only does not improve that situation to tether things more closely to reality, it actually makes things worse in that respect.

There's nothing about Ron Vara's approach to things (and that's exactly what we're seeing implemented here -- an economic approach that comes from a LITERAL pathologically lying madman) that makes long-term sense or will make anything better.  It's all bad.  All of it.  Even the tiny slivers of it that MIGHT be somewhat good in a different or limited context (see, e.g., targeted tariffs having their place), are executed in such a way as to be super shitty.

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Posted
Just now, TwiceHorn said:

What is the fucking deal with VAT?  The only one with which I am familiar is Europe's, and it applies equally to domestic or imported goods purchased for consumption or use in Europe.

I cannot figure any way in which it affects trade balances.

It doesn't.  The problem here is that the people bitching about them are so, so, so dumb.  FFS, it works pretty much like a sales tax, and nobody claims that Texas's sales tax - which tacks 6.25% onto every shoe sold here, whether it was made in Austin, Boston, or Shanghai - skews any trade balance.  Because it doesn't.  At all.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

What is the fucking deal with VAT?  The only one with which I am familiar is Europe's, and it applies equally to domestic or imported goods purchased for consumption or use in Europe.

I cannot figure any way in which it affects trade balances.

Think of the dumbest, most idiotic arguments made by dumbasses on surly. Now imagine them in the white house. That Helobious-level of thinking is what's steering the ship now. 

 

They're probably all jacked up on VAT because someone mentioned it and they latched onto it like a dog with a bone

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

What is the fucking deal with VAT?  The only one with which I am familiar is Europe's, and it applies equally to domestic or imported goods purchased for consumption or use in Europe.

I cannot figure any way in which it affects trade balances.

I guess because it isn't charged on goods exported from Europe?  

Correct. On exports, the exporter can file for a credit to absolve them of their payments on receipt prior to export. Going the other direction, the VAT gets charged on imports upon arrival to release from customs. 

Trump and Navarro's obsession with it is dumb as fuck. Instead, they should implement a VAT as part of the tax bill, and offset the income tax cuts revenue loss.  You'd think a party that has been wistfully dreaming of a national sales tax for decades would get that, but we live in the stupidest timeline. 

I think one of the only clever things Paul Ryan did was suggest a Carbon based VAT during the initial Trump tax bill, but Grover Norquist threw a fit and it died on the vine. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted
6 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

At least the national parks will be less crowded this summer ---- and for the next three years.

image.jpeg.80ba038a9dbf72bf95bf4ed18aabbc92.jpeg

nah, they'll be sold off and privatized over the next few years and you won't get to visit them at all. tired of winning yet?

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Posted
1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

nah, they'll be sold off and privatized over the next few years and you won't get to visit them at all. tired of winning yet?


By not letting people visit, the overstressed national parks will recover from years of overuse. Trump is actually an environmentalist. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, The Royal We said:

It's all vibes. Tesla shit the whole bed in their Q1 numbers and it's up 7%+ today. This is a hell of a way to run a country.

Well, when business is down 2 billion that means there are significant cost savings for the company when you cut a large part of the accounting department who don’t have to process sales anymore.

Tesla is getting lean and mean baby, a self-DOGE!!! 

 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

At least the national parks will be less crowded this summer ---- and for the next three years.

image.jpeg.80ba038a9dbf72bf95bf4ed18aabbc92.jpeg

Jokes on you, libtard: all the western ones will be unstaffed and on fire.  OTOH, nobody will stop you from jumping into Thunderhole at Acadia and drowning in the Gulf of Maine. Freedom!!!

Posted
2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Correct. On exports, the exporter can file for a credit to absolve them of their payments on receipt prior to export. Going the other direction, the VAT gets charged on imports upon arrival to release from customs. 

Trump and Navarro's obsession with it is dumb as fuck. Instead, they should implement a VAT as part of the tax bill, and offset the income tax cuts revenue loss.  You'd think a party that has been wistfully dreaming of a national sales tax for decades would get that, but we live in the stupidest timeline. 

I think one of the only clever things Paul Ryan did was suggest a Carbon based VAT during the initial Trump tax bill, but Grover Norquist threw a fit and it died on the vine. 

I guess is is as simple(ton) as Europeans pay more for their own goods than they charge Americans because of VAT.

That's.  Just.  We tall did.

Posted
1 minute ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Why are y'all whining when you've recently got the best jobs, the biggest paychecks, and the greatest economy the world has ever seen? Talk about ungrateful!

 

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page people GIF

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Posted
7 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

It is painfully clear that while there are savvy traders out there, most of Wall Street, even big money, doesn't understand the dysfunction at 1600 Penn at any level.  I mean, the neck beards on r/WSB might as well be the primary test subjects for RFK, Jr. autism trials. 

Its not clear to me that these gigantic index moves both up and down are "trader led," not even close. Before news even is out for a few minutes, the market can spike 2% or more. That is 100% algorithmic trading with no person pushing the buy button. That kind of insane volume is coming from computers, and that in its own right is scary. Its not so much that computers don't understand the dysfunction as much as it is they don't fucking care.  they are programmed to exploit the markets to make money.  Thats it. The rest of us are along for the ride and don't influence shit. They don't give a fuck about your bundle of blue chips or your 401K. They would gladly dock your net worth by 50% if it adds a few bips to their profits. Just another example of this country selling out the individual to benefit the corporations. 

 

 

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Posted
On 4/23/2025 at 10:35 AM, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

At least the national parks will be less crowded this summer ---- and for the next three years.

image.jpeg.80ba038a9dbf72bf95bf4ed18aabbc92.jpeg

 

On a side note, I was in London and Madrid last week and ran into more Americans than I cared to so there’s that.

 

I didn’t get any slack for being an American, and I got one Brit who came up to me and said “it’s Hook ‘em, right” and that was cool.

 

 

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Posted

For the last couple of months my work life has been chaos. I work in big tech. All my non-U.S. customers want out of cloud data storage in the U.S. and some form of sovereign storage. Which means I am hiring more and more non-US citizens and will likely be cutting US citizens.

We are being treated as if we are China. The most common phrase I hear every day is "due to the international political situation we need to make changes."

Thanks a lot Trump.

 

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Posted
On 4/23/2025 at 9:33 AM, The Royal We said:

It's all vibes. Tesla shit the whole bed in their Q1 numbers and it's up 7%+ today. This is a hell of a way to run a country.

It's a bubble. After a couple quarters straight of revenue loss its all going to come crashing down. Years from now we will study Elon Musk. I wonder what that will look like? Here is a guy who was seen as genius by so many, but wasn't smart enough to understand who his product appealed to. In his quest to be atop as the world's richest man, he turned his back on his followers and hitched his wagon to the faction of people who want nothing to do with what he is selling.

If you think about it Elon is doing to his own brand exactly what Trump is doing to the brand of America. Fascinating stuff really.

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Posted

In 2024 there was plenty of talk that the stock market was overvalued when companies were reporting great numbers. Now every US industry is looking at lower numbers and we have consumer confidence dropping at alarming rates.

Even if trade deals were quickly created, I don’t see how the damage can be undone. Let’s say the EU and China lower barriers to US products, will they even want US products? Buy American is on the verge of becoming toxic in America. It definitely is if the company associates with Trump.

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Posted
8 hours ago, F250 said:

For the last couple of months my work life has been chaos. I work in big tech. All my non-U.S. customers want out of cloud data storage in the U.S. and some form of sovereign storage. Which means I am hiring more and more non-US citizens and will likely be cutting US citizens.

We are being treated as if we are China. The most common phrase I hear every day is "due to the international political situation we need to make changes."

Thanks a lot Trump.

 

I sell enterprise software into O/G, mining, and utilities. A bunch of Canadian companies I've dealt with straight-up told me that if they have the choice between an American vendor and a non-American one, they'll go non-American every time.

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Posted
8 hours ago, F250 said:

For the last couple of months my work life has been chaos. I work in big tech. All my non-U.S. customers want out of cloud data storage in the U.S. and some form of sovereign storage. Which means I am hiring more and more non-US citizens and will likely be cutting US citizens.

We are being treated as if we are China. The most common phrase I hear every day is "due to the international political situation we need to make changes."

Thanks a lot Trump.

 

Send me a DM about this. 

Posted
5 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, yeah, about international trade.

There are some things that we just cannot produce on our own:  coffee, vanilla, enough rare earth metals, etc.

I can think of very little, except maybe a few defense products, where we are the world's sole supplier, or nearly so.

If we a) want to be able to buy foreign products on reasonable terms and b) have good markets for our own goods, we should probably not try to be economic isolationists and be assholes about it.

This is all just so damn stupid.

I wouldn’t lead with that monologue if you decide to apply for a Trump White House position.

Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, F250 said:

For the last couple of months my work life has been chaos. I work in big tech. All my non-U.S. customers want out of cloud data storage in the U.S. and some form of sovereign storage. Which means I am hiring more and more non-US citizens and will likely be cutting US citizens.

We are being treated as if we are China. The most common phrase I hear every day is "due to the international political situation we need to make changes."

Thanks a lot Trump.

 

I grew up in tech. My Dad was an engineer in the HCF era, and I’m old enough to remember when I was a kid and they had ashtrays next to the dumb terminals in what would now be called “data centers.”   I got my first job in tech in 1999 and spent the next 25 years at 5 companies. 

I left tech 18 months ago for a lot of reasons. I was running towards something more than running away from anything, and I would go back if I needed to, but from one old veteran to another, the ride is over. We had a hell of a run, though. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
Posted

Could easily put this in the leopards eating faces thread.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5264996-ken-griffin-gop-donor-value-us-dollar-tariffs/

 

Quote

GOP donor Ken Griffin suggested the value of the U.S. dollar has significantly deteriorated compared to the euro in the past month under the thumb of President Trump’s latest tariff hike on global trading partners. 

Griffin, the founder and CEO of Citadel, said the country “has become 20 percent poorer in four weeks,” in conversation with Semafor’s Gina Chon at the World Economy Summit. Since the start of the year, the dollar index has weakened by more than 9 percent. 

 

 

Quote

He added that the currency’s deflation amid shifts in economic policy and the president’s latest attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has jeopardized the nation’s pristine reputation.

“We put that brand at risk,” Griffin told Chon. “It can be a lifetime to repair the damage that has been done.”

The hedge fund manager echoed economists and world leaders who said new tariff measures will produce no winners but instead force all parties involved to “tread water and not drown.”

 

Spoiler

Trump’s announcement earlier this year to impose a 10 percent baseline tax on almost all foreign imports and higher “reciprocal” taxes on many countries have impacted the U.S.’s friends and foes alike. While he issued a three-month reprieve for most of the retaliatory tariffs, excluding China, Griffin said the extra taxes — including the 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico — risk the country losing some of its oldest allies.

“How does Canada feel about our country today versus two months ago? How does Europe feel about the United States today versus two months ago?” Griffin asked. 

“And some people scream, ‘Well, it just doesn’t matter.’ But you know what? It matters for a very profound reason,” he continued. “The entire Western world is engulfed in a debt crisis.”

The longtime GOP donor bucked Trump’s theory that foreign manufacturers will race to build new factories within the U.S.

“I’ll tell you what’s not going to happen is, people are not going to raise [money] to build manufacturing in America,” he said, adding, “because with the policy volatility, you actually undermine the very goal you’re trying to achieve.”

The rise in costs for steel and aluminum imports in particular is set to rattle the U.S. factories of automakers, construction firms and beverage-makers that use cans.

Griffin’s words echo sentiments from other top economists who have remained largely skeptical of Trump’s trade agenda, signaling a recession is on the horizon in the coming months if the president does not change course. 

 

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