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Posted

Germany and France pleaded today to prepare for war. I fully expect the US to pull out of NATO within the next 7 days. 

 

BREAKING: German Foreign Minister Baerbock gave an impassioned speech to prepare Germans for war with Russia.
Germany urges European nations to start mobilizing now and not wait for the formation of the incoming government in Germany under Chancellor Merz, expected in April.

 

BREAKING: French President Macron addressed all Europeans to prepare for war with Russia.
This was broadcast live across the continent.
Europe will not accept capitulation of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of "peace negotiations."
Americans must decide whose side we are on.

 

buckle up, hopefully this is all for not. 

 

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Posted

... and Canada will want to help their NATO allies, but will need to keep the powder dry to prevent an invasion from the U.S.  

are-we-the-baddies.gif

Yes, we are.

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Posted

I’ve been decently impressed with European diplomacy over these first six weeks, but this is a long haul.  They’ve avoided prompting any major Trump eruptions, managed to maintain maximum flexibility to have the U.S. remain engaged as much as possible, while setting the tone and table to fundamentally rebuild European security. 
 

That said there are many structural and political obstacles to translating European latent power into actual power.  The current security architecture is not built for it and any new blueprint will face the familiar challenge of European unity. 
 

There will be considerable efforts to keep the U.S. somewhat onside and not to close any doors. Europeans have been fairly adept at working with and productively channeling a U.S. that wants to use the post war order it built mostly for its own interests and ends.  The new challenge is how to engage a U.S. that is actively working against its own interests, or at least one that has radically reevaluated its own interests in a way incomprehensible to democratic and liberal counterparts. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’ve been decently impressed with European diplomacy over these first six weeks, but this is a long haul.  They’ve avoided prompting any major Trump eruptions, managed to maintain maximum flexibility to have the U.S. remain engaged as much as possible, while setting the tone and table to fundamentally rebuild European security. 
 

That said there are many structural and political obstacles to translating European latent power into actual power.  The current security architecture is not built for it and any new blueprint will face the familiar challenge of European unity. 
 

There will be considerable efforts to keep the U.S. somewhat onside and not to close any doors. Europeans have been fairly adept at working with and productively channeling a U.S. that wants to use the post war order it built mostly for its own interests and ends.  The new challenge is how to engage a U.S. that is actively working against its own interests, or at least one that has radically reevaluated its own interests in a way incomprehensible to democratic and liberal counterparts. 

Yes. And he is getting frustrated.

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

other than nukes, what can russia throw a nato ??

Migrants and destabilize other areas.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

other than nukes, what can russia throw a nato ??

In addition to @InkaUtexas’ they have cyber, sabotage, and other hybrid measures. 
 

Their big military advantage is the ability to forward deploy pure mass against the very hard to defend Baltics.  They could achieve an advantage there.  To rapidly move in against overwhelmed local forces, then begin making nuclear threats as Europe tried to mobilize to get them out.  Europe has to figure out a way to extend deterrence without the U.S., and fast.  Which is why Macron is floating the idea.  One interesting option might be a European Ally only nuclear sharing program with the Baltics but that brings the risk of a hysterical Russian reaction. 
 

The introduction of another party trying to solve the extended deterrence problem in Eastern Europe introduces some real destabilizing elements that neither Trump or Putin has fully thought through. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

incredible levels of disinformation that can and will destabilize a democracy

We are likely going to help the Russians with that.  We kind of already are. It’s clear we are going to try and put our thumb on the scale for national populist movements across Europe. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In addition to @InkaUtexas’ they have cyber, sabotage, and other hybrid measures. 
 

Their big military advantage is the ability to forward deploy pure mass against the very hard to defend Baltics.  They could achieve an advantage there.  To rapidly move in against overwhelmed local forces, then begin making nuclear threats as Europe tried to mobilize to get them out.  Europe has to figure out a way to extend deterrence without the U.S., and fast.  Which is why Macron is floating the idea.  One interesting option might be a European Ally only nuclear sharing program with the Baltics but that brings the risk of a hysterical Russian reaction. 
 

The introduction of another party trying to solve the extended deterrence problem in Eastern Europe introduces some real destabilizing elements that neither Trump or Putin has fully thought through. 

The fuck did I do?

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Posted (edited)

Russia has shot their wad with destabilizing propaganda. Europe has sided with Ukraine. Russia has painted itself into a corner as the enemy. Trump pulling us onto Putin’s side just gives them more to hate

Edited by Sawbonz
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Posted
21 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In addition to @InkaUtexas’ they have cyber, sabotage, and other hybrid measures. 
 

Their big military advantage is the ability to forward deploy pure mass against the very hard to defend Baltics.  They could achieve an advantage there.  To rapidly move in against overwhelmed local forces, then begin making nuclear threats as Europe tried to mobilize to get them out.  Europe has to figure out a way to extend deterrence without the U.S., and fast.  Which is why Macron is floating the idea.  One interesting option might be a European Ally only nuclear sharing program with the Baltics but that brings the risk of a hysterical Russian reaction. 
 

The introduction of another party trying to solve the extended deterrence problem in Eastern Europe introduces some real destabilizing elements that neither Trump or Putin has fully thought through. 

cut their under water cables (now) and sink as many russian subs as possible in the first five mins. as many ships as possible in the first 30 mins. as many drones / rockets as possible at every air field, military or not, in the first five mins. dump everything else you can spare at every refinery and power plant, asap. all known fuel reserve sites, torch them 

dig in and no russian that crosses into your free country sees his home again 

target all known homes / hide aways of putin 

every bridge within 500 miles of free borders, gone 

every military manufacturing facility, gone 

seems like a good start 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Russia has shot their wad with destabilizing propaganda. Europe has sided with Ukraine. Russia has painted itself into a corner as the enemy. Trump pulling us onto Putin’s side just gives them more to hate

^^ This.  

And no one is still in awe of Russia's conventional military, are they?

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Posted (edited)

I'm becoming a huge fan of the French, Germans and British right now. and the Polish, those bastards are just being quiet but they ready to cut a bitch I'm telling you. and don't sleep on the socialists from the northern country. those motherfuckers straight up sober said, "we're in" oh and the Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians? Those men have hot women to defend, well at least if they look like our local tennis pro. Russia is gonna get boxed in.

Edited by troph
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Posted
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

if russia wants to unleash hell in Europe, make them date / marry russian women 

they'll be waving white flags asap 

True, this is why Spanky hates immigrants now

39 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

cut their under water cables (now) and sink as many russian subs as possible in the first five mins. as many ships as possible in the first 30 mins. as many drones / rockets as possible at every air field, military or not, in the first five mins. dump everything else you can spare at every refinery and power plant, asap. all known fuel reserve sites, torch them 

dig in and no russian that crosses into your free country sees his home again 

target all known homes / hide aways of putin 

every bridge within 500 miles of free borders, gone 

every military manufacturing facility, gone 

seems like a good start 

That’s all? 

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Posted
5 hours ago, mchookem said:

One of our traits that keeps getting us in trouble is the assumption that other people are not as brave and willing to fight as we are. I think that drives popular support of and government belief in the deterrent effect of bombing people. I think "shock and awe" against Iraq proved the idiocy of that.

0b25809b6e86267cdba401941b8ab999a0f78b9e

Just like it, indeed. We never learn. Bombing other people makes the survivors extremely angry. Russia expected to walk in and take over Ukraine with a show of massive force. Nope.

The French joke about them surrendering all the time is amusing, but it's just a joke. They're no more tame than the rest of Europe and the world.

Like you and most around here, I'm glad to see them not acquiesce to Trump's America as have we.

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Posted
12 hours ago, HOOKEM4 said:

China is just sitting back (stealing tech) and laughing. We are in for fun times. My body is ready.

It’s incredible right? These stupid fucking MAGAts cheering on us handing the world order to china. I’m gooped and gagged over it

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Posted

The way Europe gets American attention is refocusing their purchasing of military hardware.  The defense industry in the U.S. collapses if it is down to Israel and the US buying its shit.  I see a real chance that the US slide to irrelevance accelerates this year.  China is the big winner just by staying the course.  Taiwan will fall on their lap.

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Posted

Yep.  We're handing China international supremacy on a silver platter.

Which makes me wonder if China and Russia are in bed together.  Everything Russia is making us do benefits China...

Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

The way Europe gets American attention is refocusing their purchasing of military hardware.  The defense industry in the U.S. collapses if it is down to Israel and the US buying its shit.  I see a real chance that the US slide to irrelevance accelerates this year.  China is the big winner just by staying the course.  Taiwan will fall on their lap.

The problem is that, even if they want to (which they do and european defense stocks are seeing big gains recently), their readiness and ability to manufacture at scale isn't there and will take rehauled investments, processes and -- more importantly -- time. Time that they don't have for current issues like Ukraine.

This is an example of the many examples of the negatives of an overly globalized and horizontal world. If and when relationships change, you lose autonomy. It's why it was an absolute error to outsource the packaging of chips back in the day because now the Tawain/Asian area of the world owns that unfair advantage while we are trying desperately to get caught back up and control our destiny to a degree in-house.

The flip side is, all the efficiency gains and scale you got in the peacetime years for globalization couldn't be nearly matched with the entrenchment and insularity of a more protectionist and less open system.

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted
13 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Russia has shot their wad with destabilizing propaganda. Europe has sided with Ukraine. Russia has painted itself into a corner as the enemy. Trump pulling us onto Putin’s side just gives them more to hate

I wish this were true but it is much more complicated.  There are multiple elections this year across the continent where Kremlin aligned or Kremlin open populists stand a very real chance of prevailing. They will for sure gain more ground.  Most of that is going to be driven by local level concerns and grievances but the Kremlin will exploit that.  Instability and uncertainty introduced by U.S. actions also will benefit anti-system and populist groups.  Destabilizing propaganda will be a big part of this effort. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I wish this were true but it is much more complicated.  There are multiple elections this year across the continent where Kremlin aligned or Kremlin open populists stand a very real chance of prevailing. They will for sure gain more ground.  Most of that is going to be driven by local level concerns and grievances but the Kremlin will exploit that.  Instability and uncertainty introduced by U.S. actions also will benefit anti-system and populist groups.  Destabilizing propaganda will be a big part of this effort. 

Yep. We tend to look at Europe as East vs West. We overlook the South.

Want to fuck up EU? Cause havoc in the Balkans while Europe is focused on Ukraine. They cannot handle more than 1 crisis without US Support. Logistics mainly.

Couple of hundred refugees, etc.



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