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ncaa week 1

BigOrange1

By BigOrange1
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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6432

Posted
Posted

not a lot jumping out at me at first glance.  some games i have an eye on:

  • purdue -2.5 hosting northwestern (thursday).  purdue was a money machine in the early part of last year and i'll probably be on them at less than a FG in their 2018 debut.  
  • i would think UCF would crush UCONN, but 23 may be a tad high for my liking
  • likewise, wisconsin should be able to name it's score against western kentucky, but 35.5 is a really big #.
  • maryland is +13 right now.  if that got up above 14 i'd take a good look at it.
  • byu/arizona over 60.5.  1st game for the tate/sumlin combo.  if tate has a manziel like season under sumlin, they're going to be scoring a lot of points.
  • washington/auburn under 48.  don't see a lot of offense in this one.
  • tennessee +10.  not sure i'm buying into the west virginia hype.  think they'll be typically solid, but not spectacular. 
  • alabama -24.5.  it's a big #, but bama usually rolls (get it?) in these opening week matchups.

thoughts?

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

not a lot jumping out at me at first glance.  some games i have an eye on:

  • purdue -2.5 hosting northwestern (thursday).  purdue was a money machine in the early part of last year and i'll probably be on them at less than a FG in their 2018 debut. 
  • No for me. Purdue's and NW's strength last year was defense, Purdue lost 7 starters on D and NW returned 7.
  • i would think UCF would crush UCONN, but 23 may be a tad high for my liking
  • Agree on both accounts.  UCF should destroy UConn, but I'm weary of lines above 3 scores
  • likewise, wisconsin should be able to name it's score against western kentucky, but 35.5 is a really big #.
  • Same as above.
  • maryland is +13 right now.  if that got up above 14 i'd take a good look at it.
  • Your shit's retarded.
  • byu/arizona over 60.5.  1st game for the tate/sumlin combo.  if tate has a manziel like season under sumlin, they're going to be scoring a lot of points.
  • No opinion.  Seems reasonable.
  • washington/auburn under 48.  don't see a lot of offense in this one.
  • I agree.
  • tennessee +10.  not sure i'm buying into the west virginia hype.  think they'll be typically solid, but not spectacular. 
  • I agree on WVU hype, but Tennessee is not the team to expose them.  Wait for a better matchup/line.
  • alabama -24.5.  it's a big #, but bama usually rolls (get it?) in these opening week matchups.
  • I think you might be right, but it's risky.  Alabama lost 8(!) on defense, and Louisville - while not great - isn't a pushover.

thoughts?

Above.

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Above.

Added thoughts on Purdue vs NW

If you can get a decent moneyline on NW (like +130), you can hedge yourself whichever way you like and only have a 2 pt gap.

Or if you can get Purdue even and NW with the spread, you risk very little to try to hit the gap.

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TornACL

TornACL 7698

Posted
Posted

A lot of years I see a lot of good value in week 1, but of course this offseason I haven't really looked at anything. So that's probably why I don't see much on the board that has me excited.

I'm thinking generally along the same lines as OP on his games, but the only ones I feel comfortable enough to play as of today are Purdue and Bama. I like the under in Texas-Maryland. Last year's game had points galore but so many bullshit special teams and defensive points. And nothing I saw from the Texas spring game inspires confidence to me that they're going to score more than 35.

I was on Arizona because Sumlin seems to start every season off with teams that have been playing for 6 weeks. But their OL is totally retooled, so I'm going to wait and see on that one. Is BYU still trash after last year's hugely disappointing season?

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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Posted
  • Piece-of-shit, lying Urban, and the whole suspension mucks with continuing to jump on his 41-10 ATS record with a week+ to prepare. 
  • Wyoming +2.   Wazzu's no good on the road as a favorite and I'll jump on any chance to fade that clown Leach. 
  • I'm too lazy to find Saban's ATS record in openers but I'm guessing it's pretty damn stellar.  And you ain't going to get a scrub at QB w/ them in 4Q when you're trying to protect that cover. 
  • NIU +11 warrants a look.  They won at Kinnick and in Lincoln in recent years so environment won't be an issue.   Iowa suspensions have put some hurt on them. 
  • Agree on Michigan / ND under. Doubt that Harbaugh is going to let Patterson do a ton early on in the season and that defense isn't going to give up much. 
  • FAU / OU O68  Points all over the place.
  • La Tech -10  v. So Alabama Ended up '17 on a roll and 16 starters back. 
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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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Posted

My picks on games of note:

VaTech +7.5 (Monday): There is a lot to be skeptical about VT.  New staff.  Star player gone.  But this line just feels terribly off.  I don't see FSU as a clear favorite - much less by a score.

Miami -3.5 (Sunday): Certain teams tend to be perennially overrated. LSU is one.

-------

I'm not making plays on these games, but here's my gun-to-head picks:

Notre Dame -1: I actually feel like both these teams deserve to be ranked.  But I don't trust Michigan's offense.  Under is a good play for the same reason.

Texas -13.5:  But my heart wouldn't weather the double dose of disappointment.

Washington +1.5: This should be a good game.  The line nails it in my opinion and is still slowly creeping down, but if I were forced I'd go with Washington.  Under is a much better play than anything on the spread.

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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Posted

I'm not sure how Texas scores much this season - QB position is mediocre, no proven RBs, no TE, inconsistent WRs.   Sucks that we're entering our 9th year w/o any kind of difference maker at QB.  Just don't see where the points are coming from. Hope I'm wrong.  

 

Good stuff as usual from David Purdum at ESPN: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/24507132/everything-need-know-betting-college-football-season

 

Best ATS record at home over past five seasons

1. Iowa State's Matt Campbell: 19-10-2 ATS
2. Tulane's Willie Fritz: 15-7-1 ATS
3. Purdue's Jeff Brohm: 16-8-0 ATS

Best ATS record on the road over past five seasons

1. Northern Illinois' Rod Carey: 22-9-1 ATS
2. Baylor's Matt Rhule: 20-9-0 ATS
3. Louisiana Tech's Skip Holtz: 21-11-0 ATS

Best ATS record as favorite over past five seasons

1. Tulane's Willie Fritz: 18-8-1 ATS
2. Arkansas State's Blake Anderson: 22-12-0 ATS
3. Florida State's Willie Taggart: 18-9-0 ATS

Best ATS record as underdog over past five seasons

1. Baylor's Matt Rhule: 24-12-0 ATS
2. Wake Forest's Dave Clawson: 22-13-1 ATS
3. Duke's David Cutcliffe: 18-10-1 ATS

Best "over" coach in past five seasons

1. New Mexico State's Doug Martin: 38-20-1 over/under
2. Louisiana-Monroe's Matt Viator: 19-7 over/under
3. Ohio State's Urban Meyer: 38-25 over/under

Best "under" coach in past five seasons

1. Duke's David Cutcliffe: 40-20-0 under/over
2. Syracuse's Dino Babers: 38-18-1 under/over
3. South Florida's Charlie Strong: 39-20-0 under/over

 

 

  

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txhorns

txhorns 2409

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, SDG said:

I’m planning on participating in some online action this year. What’s Surly’s thoughts on the best book, or what should I look for?  I see Bovada and MyBookie advertised a lot.   

I've always used Bovada.  Have never had an issue with anything.  They do sometimes keep from releasing lines until very late due to injuries or other circumstances though, but that's mostly for smaller games.  If you decide to go with them hit me up and I will get you a referral code.

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Blotto

Blotto 23485

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm taking FAU and the 21. They went into camp randall last year and played Wisc tough, covering the spread. They have a shit ton of players back, one of the best running backs in the country, and their coach doesn't collect others guys jizz in his belly tattoo. Might take a stab at the 1st half money line.

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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14 hours ago, Blotto said:

I'm taking FAU and the 21. They went into camp randall last year and played Wisc tough, covering the spread. They have a shit ton of players back, one of the best running backs in the country, and their coach doesn't collect others guys jizz in his belly tattoo. Might take a stab at the 1st half money line.

I like this play. 

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NowThis

NowThis 931

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Posted
On 8/27/2018 at 8:21 PM, GopherRock said:

Michigan at Notre Dame U47. I don't see many points in this one either. 

Southern Cal -28 v UNLV, only because UNLV has been so rancid. 

 

md / nd under 47 is great

like MD +13.5 

MD +400 , yup, cray but i like MD at home and UT on the road isn't a thing yet

Bama -24 easy rolls no Lamar.  LVille may not get to 13 points. 

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LonghornGoodfella

LonghornGoodfella 114

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1 hour ago, NowThis said:

md / nd under 47 is great

like MD +13.5 

MD +400 , yup, cray but i like MD at home and UT on the road isn't a thing yet

Bama -24 easy rolls no Lamar.  LVille may not get to 13 points. 

Eat a bag of dicks and go die in a fire please. Horns aren't losing this game this year dickwad. 

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TornACL

TornACL 7698

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57 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

UConn is going to be fade material all season long.   Lost a lot of players, have no depth and aren't redshirting anyone.  Edsall peaching patience to fan base.  Translation: this year's gonna suck. 

I only saw some highlights, but man their DBs didn't put up a whole lot of effort at all. That's not real encouraging for the first game of the fucking season.

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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More good nuggets from ESPN Chalk. And I have an answer to Saban and season openers.  Wow.  . 

• Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its past nine games when favored by 30 or more points.
• This will mark the 41st consecutive game that Ohio State enters as a favorite. The Buckeyes have gone 15-25 ATS during this span.
• Lane Kiffin is 5-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog during his college head coaching career. This includes one outright win -- a 38-35 upset by USC over Oregon as 15-point underdogs in 2011.
• The under is 9-0-1 in Texas' past 10 road/neutral-site games.
• Texas Tech is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games played in September.
• The over is 12-2 in Texas Tech's past 14 neutral-site games.
• West Virginia is 6-24 ATS in its past 30 neutral-site games, including six straight ATS losses.
• Wyoming is 10-3 ATS with seven outright wins in its past 13 games as an underdog.
• USC went 0-6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite last season.
• UNLV is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games as an underdog of at least 21 points.
• California is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 home games against Power 5 opponents, including six straight covers.
• Troy is 6-0-1 ATS in its past seven games as a double-digit underdog. This includes an outright win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog last season.
• Michigan has yet to win a game that it wasn't favored in under Jim Harbaugh (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS).
• Michigan is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 road games against ranked teams.
• Alabama is 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU in its 11 season openers under Nick Saban, having won those games by an average of 28.1 PPG.
• This will mark the 112th time in its last 113 games that Alabama enters as a favorite.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/24525383/college-football-week-1-betting-nuggets-know

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LonghornGoodfella

LonghornGoodfella 114

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

More good nuggets from ESPN Chalk. And I have an answer to Saban and season openers.  Wow.  . 

• Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its past nine games when favored by 30 or more points.
• This will mark the 41st consecutive game that Ohio State enters as a favorite. The Buckeyes have gone 15-25 ATS during this span.
• Lane Kiffin is 5-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog during his college head coaching career. This includes one outright win -- a 38-35 upset by USC over Oregon as 15-point underdogs in 2011.
• The under is 9-0-1 in Texas' past 10 road/neutral-site games.
• Texas Tech is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games played in September.
• The over is 12-2 in Texas Tech's past 14 neutral-site games.
• West Virginia is 6-24 ATS in its past 30 neutral-site games, including six straight ATS losses.
• Wyoming is 10-3 ATS with seven outright wins in its past 13 games as an underdog.
• USC went 0-6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite last season.
• UNLV is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games as an underdog of at least 21 points.
• California is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 home games against Power 5 opponents, including six straight covers.
• Troy is 6-0-1 ATS in its past seven games as a double-digit underdog. This includes an outright win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog last season.
• Michigan has yet to win a game that it wasn't favored in under Jim Harbaugh (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS).
• Michigan is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 road games against ranked teams.
• Alabama is 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU in its 11 season openers under Nick Saban, having won those games by an average of 28.1 PPG.
• This will mark the 112th time in its last 113 games that Alabama enters as a favorite.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/24525383/college-football-week-1-betting-nuggets-know

So bet the house on Bama eh? Also this year they will play both Tua and Hurts deep in the game and with both "competing", looks like no relief for Louisville here. I like it. 

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HRSchenker

HRSchenker 2268

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Posted

Last night I had

  • Northwestern @ Purdue Under 85.5 WIN
  • Northwestern +1.5 @ Purdue WIN
  • Missouri State @ Oklahoma State Under 76.5 WIN
  • Central Florida @ Connecticut Under 71 LOSS

For this weekend I have

  • San Diego State +14 @ Stanford
  • Wisconsin -37 vs Western Kentucky
  • Florida Atlantic +21 @ Oklahoma
  • Maryland +14 vs Texas
  • Texas ML
  • Mississippi ML
  • Auburn -2.5 vs Washington
  • UCLA -15 vs Cincinnati
  • Notre Dame -0.5 vs Michigan
  • North Texas -4.5 vs SMU
Kyler Murray is not Baker Mayfield and Lane Kiffin is not a coach that you want to face in your first game as the OU quarterback. I think the Sooners are prime for an upset or some late game heroics by one of their players. Do they cover 21? I don't think so. Maryland and Texas is a tough one. 14 points is a lot to give a home underdog and Texas is 12-9 against the spread as away favorites since 2010 and they're 19-18 as away team period. But Texas is 14-7 as the away favorite so I have my boys on the ML.
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NowThis

NowThis 931

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Posted

Hawaii Navy Over 61.5  .  Bows can't stop anyone but can score with a strong QB and speedy WRs.   This is the John McCain bowl. Don't you think the Navy guys will visit Pearl Harbor this weekend? 

Hawaii +12 

Louisville TT under 19.5 .   No Lamar, and people expect nearly 3 TDs on the got dam Alabama defense????  

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23485

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Posted
2 hours ago, NowThis said:

Hawaii Navy Over 61.5  .  Bows can't stop anyone but can score with a strong QB and speedy WRs.   This is the John McCain bowl. Don't you think the Navy guys will visit Pearl Harbor this weekend? 

Hawaii +12 

Louisville TT under 19.5 .   No Lamar, and people expect nearly 3 TDs on the got dam Alabama defense????  

 

Petrino usually figures out a way to score points. However, I have no idea who the QB is and whether or not he's worth a shit.

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