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Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 62, 81.60
Zepol87, 49, 56.15
HornOnTheBayou, 43, 57.76
ztejas, 42, 56.11
Wulaw Horn, 32, 57.54
Prepuce of Doom, 32, 37.71
Derka, 29, 29.00
Bartles, 13, 13.00

 
Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 58.86% (903)
Wulaw Horn - 11.91% (401)
ztejas - 11.34% (318)
HornOnTheBayou - 11.23% (230)
Zepol87 - 4.74% (155)
Tie - 1.93% (41)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

 

Neither of my 4 seeds won last night but the other low seeds losing helped my odds.

Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 65, 76.75
Zepol87, 49, 49.00
Wulaw Horn, 44, 54.02
HornOnTheBayou, 43, 57.07
ztejas, 42, 46.81
Prepuce of Doom, 35, 39.95
Derka, 29, 29.00
Bartles, 13, 13.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 76.19% (78)
HornOnTheBayou - 13.13% (23)
Wulaw Horn - 8.37% (23)
Tie - 2.32% (4)
ztejas - 0.00% (0)
Zepol87 - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

In order of probability, the four possible ties are:

Wulaw Horn/HornOnTheBayou with 70 points
Huckleberry/Wulaw Horn with 74 points
Huckleberry/Wulaw Horn with 74 points
Wulaw Horn/HornOnTheBayou with 74 points

Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 65, 76.49
Zepol87, 49, 49.00
ztejas, 46, 50.06
Wulaw Horn, 44, 53.80
HornOnTheBayou, 43, 48.58
Prepuce of Doom, 35, 39.91
Derka, 29, 29.00
Bartles, 13, 13.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 89.64% (50)
Wulaw Horn - 9.24% (13)
Tie - 1.12% (1)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
ztejas - 0.00% (0)
Zepol87 - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

The one tie is me and Wulaw Horn. This happens if Tennessee beats Auburn in the national championship and Duke/Florida lose the semis.
  • Fuck You 1
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 65, 70.56
Zepol87, 49, 49.00
HornOnTheBayou, 47, 52.07
ztejas, 46, 49.98
Wulaw Horn, 44, 53.47
Prepuce of Doom, 35, 39.66
Derka, 29, 29.00
Bartles, 13, 13.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 86.49% (22)
Wulaw Horn - 11.69% (9)
Tie - 1.82% (1)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
ztejas - 0.00% (0)
Zepol87 - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)
  • Haha 1
  • Fuck You 1
Posted
3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

I post these after each round/game regardless of who's up. Not to mention we've had 10% probability guys during the second weekend win before. I won't feel comfortable until it says 100%.

Does it matter for me if it’s Michigan state or Tennessee that wins the national title?  Do I need both of them through to the final 4 or will one of them losing today and the other winning the national title do it for me?  

Posted
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Does it matter for me if it’s Michigan state or Tennessee that wins the national title?  Do I need both of them through to the final 4 or will one of them losing today and the other winning the national title do it for me?  

Your 9 outright win scenarios coming into today:

image.png.fbce4e4278c0d036cb3f830a5aa15f3f.png

So if Houston holds on you will need Michigan St. to win the national championship.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 65, 70.53
Zepol87, 49, 49.00
HornOnTheBayou, 47, 51.75
ztejas, 46, 49.94
Wulaw Horn, 44, 48.35
Prepuce of Doom, 39, 42.60
Derka, 29, 29.00
Bartles, 13, 13.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 96.09% (14)
Wulaw Horn - 3.91% (2)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
ztejas - 0.00% (0)
Zepol87 - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

As mentioned above, the 2 paths are both the possible Michigan St. national championship paths (one is beating Duke in the title game, the other is beating Houston).
Posted

Okay gentlemen, DMs with Venmo info coming shortly. And one more time just for @ztejas:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 69, 73.25
Zepol87, 49, 49.00
HornOnTheBayou, 47, 51.68
ztejas, 46, 49.53
Wulaw Horn, 44, 44.00
Prepuce of Doom, 39, 42.53
Derka, 29, 29.00
Bartles, 13, 13.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 100.00% (8)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
ztejas - 0.00% (0)
Zepol87 - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Derka - 0.00% (0)

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