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Posted
19 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Looks like Austin real estate is dropping the fastest which is quite surprising.    Also, if people are leaving California, why are prices rising?

 

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AI. 

Posted

California can’t keep up supply worth a damn. Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein have a new book called ‘Abundance’ coming out talking about how regulation is strangling urban growth. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Ay-Eye. Nvidia + FAANG popping off over the last two years have the Peninsula real estate market back to record levels of stupid. 

I also recommend “Abundance”, a big focus is why so many blue state cities are in the left column and red state cities are in the right column. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

News: it’s getting really hot in Texas and Arizona. And Florida weather is not exactly San Diego either. 

Everything I’ve been hearing is red states rule and everyone is excited to leave commiefornia and New York.  No cr

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

People are figuring out how awesome Chicago is, and I haven't relocated there yet! 

star trek spock GIF

Truth. I have been hearing about more people moving there but hadn’t seen data supporting it as a trend until now. Great bang for your buck if you can deal with the cold. I personally love Chi.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

People are figuring out how awesome Chicago is, and I haven't relocated there yet! 

star trek spock GIF

I went so far as to look at homes there a couple years ago.  Bomb diggity.  I wouldn't rule it out but I'll ride out this California thing for now

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Posted
7 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Everything I’ve been hearing is red states rule and everyone is excited to leave commiefornia and New York.  No cr

Or maybe it’s supply and demand. Rational post up above partly explains why CA housing is so expensive, but y’all keep pumping that confirmation bias in here.

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Posted

I bet the ending of work from home is playing a factor.  People are going to have to move back closer to the office.  It might not be as prominent yet as it will become

Posted

LOL at Chicago being a hidden gem. I know some folks that moved down here, and they still marvel at how much more house they can afford in Texas. There’s always a trade off.

Californians are quite odd, but I’ll agree with the posters above. If money wasn’t a concern, and I didn’t have to interact with my neighbors, I’d live on top of a hill in Carmel.  

Posted
On 3/19/2025 at 2:35 PM, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Looks like Austin real estate is dropping the fastest which is quite surprising.    Also, if people are leaving California, why are prices rising?

 

image.thumb.png.115cc28fb9f62dc6608854e4b943064c.png

 

IMG_6654.jpeg

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Posted
On 3/19/2025 at 7:35 PM, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Looks like Austin real estate is dropping the fastest which is quite surprising.    Also, if people are leaving California, why are prices rising?

Kinda helps when you build 5-10x the supply.

fredgraph(7).png

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
On 3/24/2025 at 3:01 PM, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Get something on the lake for cheap

My friend's grandfather had a house on Lake Road in Bay Village.  It was about 2 acres with the backyard being cliffside on Lake Erie.  It had a staircase down to the beach.  It was completely badass.  After he died, they sold the lot for $8M and the house was torn down for a new construction.

Posted

I’ve mentioned this several times before:

1. Texas, and Austin, have much more new build land available than many other locations, especially California. This keeps prices from extreme increases, usually.  

2. But Dbeasy, Austin shot up during Covid. Yes, and this was an anomaly. While the Austin real estate market is generally healthy, there was a feeding frenzy due to big money coming in and buying up housing. Opendoor, Blackrock, etc.  And, work from home led to a surge in Austin from people coming from high real estate priced markets. Both of those things have run their course. In addition, the extreme politics of the state is definitely affecting migration here.  Prices went way too high too fast, and they’ve been correcting since. 

3. Tech is one of the main employment and housing drivers in Austin. Austin has always been a secondary location for most tech companies with significant employment. When the economy falters, like now, Austin gets cut harder and faster than core locations. Dallas does too, but they are starting to get more self sufficient.

Long term the Austin market is fine. But it’s impossible to forecast the near term because Austin has not dealt with a serious recession since 2008, and even then Texas didn’t not get hit hard in real estate during that crash.

 

 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

My friend's grandfather had a house on Lake Road in Bay Village.  It was about 2 acres with the backyard being cliffside on Lake Erie.  It had a staircase down to the beach.  It was completely badass.  After he died, they sold the lot for $8M and the house was torn down for a new construction.

I just looked some homes up on Lake Erie.  800k ish.  Let me look some more

Posted
33 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I’ve mentioned this several times before:

1. Texas, and Austin, have much more new build land available than many other locations, especially California. This keeps prices from extreme increases, usually.  

2. But Dbeasy, Austin shot up during Covid. Yes, and this was an anomaly. While the Austin real estate market is generally healthy, there was a feeding frenzy due to big money coming in and buying up housing. Opendoor, Blackrock, etc.  And, work from home led to a surge in Austin from people coming from high real estate priced markets. Both of those things have run their course. In addition, the extreme politics of the state is definitely affecting migration here.  Prices went way too high too fast, and they’ve been correcting since. 

3. Tech is one of the main employment and housing drivers in Austin. Austin has always been a secondary location for most tech companies with significant employment. When the economy falters, like now, Austin gets cut harder and faster than core locations. Dallas does too, but they are starting to get more self sufficient.

Long term the Austin market is fine. But it’s impossible to forecast the near term because Austin has not dealt with a serious recession since 2008, and even then Texas didn’t not get hit hard in real estate during that crash.

Every point of this seems spot-on to me.  Esp. #3.  In fact, when you look at markets with the biggest declines...many/most of those markets were among the "hottest" in the 2020-2023 timeframe.  Insane outside-normal-market-range increases in price are now being corrected.  And yes, the other factors as well, including still-inflated housing costs (what once attracted many people to Austin (housing prices, which were lower than where they were coming from) is now the thing that causes more to shy away (because Austin is not a bargain).

After this current correction, Austin will be....fine on the housing price front.  We are not likely to see any great run-up in prices like we did in 2020-23, and we could well see more negative pressure from a recession, I think.  But all-in-all, I think it's a good bet that we'll end up in the middle of the road as far as rate of price growth.

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