Tom "the turtle" Herman [Lame Duck or greatest 5d chess player ever?]

[BonzoMontreaux 1033]

1-12 trailing in the 4th quarter under this dude.

[nycHorn 2964]

sucks all kinda glizzy

[BabaYaga 15205]

Remember that time, when we'd be ranked in the top ten going into the RRS, then go on to win 10-11 games in the season and bitch about it.....that was awesome

[Bevo 13516]

Herman is done regardless of whether we beat Baylor. CDC knows it. Herman knows it. And the fans know it. Assuming we hire Urban, the sooner it is done, the better. Prolonging the inevitable just makes it harder on Urban. With the early signing period and spring practice 3 months away, we need to get started now on our future.

[ztejas 43262]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

No.

 

1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

I haven't fleshed out the schedule, but I suspect if we run the table we make the CC game.

Actually - there is technically one scenario. If K State, OU and Texas all win out (with K State only losing to Texas) it would be K State/OU.

I find it very, very unlikely K State wins every remaining game outside Texas. Then again, it's more unlikely that Texas goes 6-0 from here.

Edited October 23, 2020 by ztejas
(This works for ISU too)

[6th Street 6354]

15 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Herman is done regardless of whether we beat Baylor. CDC knows it. Herman knows it. And the fans know it. Assuming we hire Urban, the sooner it is done, the better. Prolonging the inevitable just makes it harder on Urban. With the early signing period and spring practice 3 months away, we need to get started now on our future.

Yeah the program is not trending in the right direction and things are deteriorating in recruiting. With Urban ready to take over, the powers that be see this as the time to strike while the iron is hot

[bad_teammate 13132]

47 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Worst case scenario, which I assume will happen because I can't have nice things, is he ekes out ugly wins in five of the next six games, loses one, sneaks into the CCG and loses a "hard fought game", goes to a bowl and upsets a higher ranked, but overranked, team and ends the season "on a high note" and won't get fired. It's what he does.

I hate your prophetic wisdom.

Damn you

[wood 11121]

4 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Yeah the program is not trending in the right direction and things are deteriorating in recruiting. With Urban ready to take over, the powers that be see this as the time to strike while the iron is hot

Do they? I hope you're right.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

o Not sure anybody cared
o Great.  A savant, you are.
o Dumbest thing I've read since your last post.
o Who cares?
o Grow a pair.  It's a game.
o Go to 1.

Not sure I like your use of “Go To”. Why didn’t the unit test catch the infinite loop? You’re a blocker in Rally.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mr.goodkat 464]

58 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Worst case scenario, which I assume will happen because I can't have nice things, is he ekes out ugly wins in five of the next six games, loses one, sneaks into the CCG and loses a "hard fought game", goes to a bowl and upsets a higher ranked, but overranked, team and ends the season "on a high note" and won't get fired. It's what he does.

this seems likely . i, as well,  can not have nice things . but apparently i can have a sad .

[LTtxfan 48952]

1 hour ago, Gene Parmesan said:

So running the table and winning the conference is the consensus saving grace?  Is it possible for us to run the regular season table and still not reach the CC game?

Yes it's possible...  both blOU or tcu would go before TEXAS if they have only two losses

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by LTtxfan
typo

[Burt Macklin 18989]

54 minutes ago, runthebone said:

This picture must be from the future.  Look how much hair he lost after Texas fired him!

No no no.  I wanted him fired last year.  quite a few of us did.

Herman really is a motherfucking shapeshifter. He never looks the same in any two pictures, and yet you still want see an asshole you want to punch right in the face no matter which picture. It’s quite an impressive feat. 

2 hours ago, Viper said:

How many branches of the Urban coaching tree have we tried? It's time to go to the source

A shit load. Strong, Herman, Beck, Ash, Bedford, and Drayton were all coaches under Meyer before coming to Texas. We’ve hired a huge chunk of his coaching tree, and it hasn’t worked at all. Time to stop fucking around and just hire the man. 
 

It’s interesting how many great coaches have fairly shitty coaching trees. Belichek, Saban, and Meyer all have coaching trees with very mixed records. Belichek’s is flat out horrible, though Flores seems like a potentially great one, and I guess you could count Saban as part of Belichek’s tree. 

But the track record of great coach’s assistants just goes to show that coordinator hires don’t matter that much if you have a great HC. The system they establish can make even a mediocre coach great.
So it really doesn’t matter too much who Urban Meyer hires as coordinators as long as they’re not just obviously terrible.  An especially good or bad coordinator definitely makes a difference, but he’s had quite a few different coordinators over the years. Yet since he got to UF in 2005, he’s averaged having the 10th best team in the country per S&P+ and his offense has averaged 18th and his defense has averaged 17th, so it’s not like he’s only having success on one side of the ball. And if you take out his first year at Florida, which was a little rough for him, he’s averaged having the 6th bests team in the country over the last 11 years he’s coached.

Looking at these numbers makes it even more painfully obvious. CDC will be a complete and total moron if he doesn’t go offer Urban whatever it takes to get him here. 

[usmc0331horn 934]

1 hour ago, General Specific said:

Not including non P5, under Herman:


3-0 vs K-State
3-0 vs Kansas
3-0 in bowls
3-1 vs Tceh
2-1 vs Iowa
2-1 vs Baylor
2-1 vs West Va
1-1 vs USC
1-2 vs Okie State
1-4 vs TCU
1-4 vs Oklahoma
0-2 vs Maryland
0-1 vs LSU

What else do we need for data points? Optics like this are far far worse than 3 coaches in a decade.

I was at the Kansas game last year and they should have beaten him at home. He should have been fired immediately after the win imo.

[Gene Parmesan 3993]

What qualifies as part of a coaching tree?  Is it simply just coached under X for a year?   I've always thought of it as guys that cut their teeth and got their coaching roots under so and so.  I wouldn't call Strong part of Urban's tree anymore than I'd call Harsin part of Macks. 

[6th Street 6354]

29 minutes ago, wood said:

Do they? I hope you're right.

I mean if Urbs wasn't available and you were looking at a grab bag of Fleck, Franklin, and Fatterson no way you'd see this level of urgency. 

[UDontKnow 10439]

9 minutes ago, Gene Parmesan said:

What qualifies as part of a coaching tree?  Is it simply just coached under X for a year?   I've always thought of it as guys that cut their teeth and got their coaching roots under so and so.  I wouldn't call Strong part of Urban's tree anymore than I'd call Harsin part of Macks. 

In all fairness, the coaching tree concept has become liberal over the years. Maybe it's because coaches more frequently than they have in the past? Dunno why exactly.

[Mo Horn 8807]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

If he loses Saturday he's not getting on the bus.  Michelle is going to have to drive him home.

Well it's a home game, so not sure there's a bus involved after... but I like your thinking.

[Rip76 4912]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Herman is done regardless of whether we beat Baylor. CDC knows it. Herman knows it. And the fans know it. Assuming we hire Urban, the sooner it is done, the better. Prolonging the inevitable just makes it harder on Urban. With the early signing period and spring practice 3 months away, we need to get started now on our future.

Put this on a big ass banner.

[Laga4 1270]

8 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

I mean if Urbs wasn't available and you were looking at a grab bag of Fleck, Franklin, and Fatterson no way you'd see this level of urgency. 

You're right. 

[Burt Macklin 18989]

1 hour ago, irishtexan said:

Worst case scenario, which I assume will happen because I can't have nice things, is he ekes out ugly wins in five of the next six games, loses one, sneaks into the CCG and loses a "hard fought game", goes to a bowl and upsets a higher ranked, but overranked, team and ends the season "on a high note" and won't get fired. It's what he does.

Even if we win 5 of 6, the odds are extremely low we’d make the CCG at 6-3 in conference. Still though, going 7-3 or 6-4 overall and keeping his job is definitely worst case scenario, but I’m pretty doubtful he’d stay even at that point. The real problem is now that they’ve let him stay, we play Baylor, WVU and Kansas in 3 of our next 4. If Herman finds a way to somehow beat OSU, winning 4 in a row isn’t out of the question (though I don’t see it),  and then he’s all but guaranteed to make it at least until the end of the season. I don’t see the point in letting him hang around for that. He should’ve been fired after OU. 

 

If we lose to OSU even if we beat Baylor, we’d be sitting at 2-3 in conference without season basically over. I really hope CDC would at least pull the trigger at that point. 

3 minutes ago, Gene Parmesan said:

What qualifies as part of a coaching tree?  Is it simply just coached under X for a year?   I've always thought of it as guys that cut their teeth and got their coaching roots under so and so.  I wouldn't call Strong part of Urban's tree anymore than I'd call Harsin part of Macks. 

Even as an attorney, I’m impressed by your pedantry. There’s no clear cut definition of coaching tree, but Charlie was a DC under Urban for 5 years and it was his success under Urban (including having a top 6 defense 3 times in 4 years that led to him being a HC. That’s pretty different from Harsin coaching for two years under Mack and then realizing it was a sinking ship and taking whatever job he could find to leave. 
 

The point wasn’t whether or not he’s technically part of Meyer’s coaching tree, it’s just another example of a coordinator who had tremendous success under Meyer but could never come close to replicating it elsewhere. 

[UncleBuck 6444]

11 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

no way you'd see this level of urgency.

exactly what level are they at right now?

Edited October 23, 2020 by UncleBuck

[Jack Wilson 313]

7 minutes ago, UncleBuck said:

exactly what level are they at right now?

Well, DEFCON-1, we hope.

[Brothahorn 10085]

A shit load. Strong, Herman, Beck, Ash, Bedford, and Drayton were all coaches under Meyer before coming to Texas. We’ve hired a huge chunk of his coaching tree, and it hasn’t worked at all. Time to stop fucking around and just hire the man. 
 
It’s interesting how many great coaches have fairly shitty coaching trees. Belichek, Saban, and Meyer all have coaching trees with very mixed records. Belichek’s is flat out horrible, though Flores seems like a potentially great one, and I guess you could count Saban as part of Belichek’s tree. 

But the track record of great coach’s assistants just goes to show that coordinator hires don’t matter that much if you have a great HC. The system they establish can make even a mediocre coach great.
So it really doesn’t matter too much who Urban Meyer hires as coordinators as long as they’re not just obviously terrible.  An especially good or bad coordinator definitely makes a difference, but he’s had quite a few different coordinators over the years. Yet since he got to UF in 2005, he’s averaged having the 10th best team in the country per S&P+ and his offense has averaged 18th and his defense has averaged 17th, so it’s not like he’s only having success on one side of the ball. And if you take out his first year at Florida, which was a little rough for him, he’s averaged having the 6th bests team in the country over the last 11 years he’s coached.
Looking at these numbers makes it even more painfully obvious. CDC will be a complete and total moron if he doesn’t go offer Urban whatever it takes to get him here. 

Not everyone is cut out to be the lead dog. Those guys are successful under Urban because he holds them accountable.

[Bevo 13516]

18 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Even as an attorney, I’m impressed by your pedantry. There’s no clear cut definition of coaching tree, but Charlie was a DC under Urban for 5 years and it was his success under Urban (including having a top 6 defense 3 times in 4 years that led to him being a HC. That’s pretty different from Harsin coaching for two years under Mack and then realizing it was a sinking ship and taking whatever job he could find to leave. 

Well, I'm trying to put together an Urban staff for Halloween. Originally I was thinking Strong as DE coach with Hurtt as DT coach. Now I am leaning Hurtt as DT coach and Tosh Lupoi as DE coach. Strong as LB coach and assistant DC. Valai at cornerback coach. Ash as DC.

[RGBIII 22798]

Has anyone been fired mid season after a win before? Cause I’m perfectly fine with setting that precedent 

[BurntOrange&White 39566]

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/10/2936696/head-coach-fired-stats

 

this is a very interesting read on mid season firings. 

[EastTexan 662]

5 hours ago, Halohal said:

Herman Munster > PeeWee Herman > Tom herman

Herman Lowry. No one you know. Just a dick head I worked with years ago.

edited to add: Last name is made up to protect the innocent.

Edited October 23, 2020 by EastTexan

[Burt Macklin 18989]

43 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

Not everyone is cut out to be the lead dog. Those guys are successful under Urban because he holds them accountable.

Right but some of those guys weren’t even very successful as coordinators under other HCs, which is the point regarding who Meyer chooses to hire as coordinators if he comes here. 

Take Herman as an example. His offenses at Iowa State weren’t very good. He ranked 64th, 94th, 80th. That’s not very good even for ISU. Then Herman goes to tOSU and has offenses ranked 16th, 2nd, 2nd and he’s billed as the next great offensive coach. Yet, his UH offenses weren’t blowing everyone away either. He had the 41st and 56th ranked offenses in his two years there. Then he gets to Texas and has offenses ranked 81st, 27th, 15th (and that 15th offense from last year had some clearly fatal flaws and never gave us a chance in games where we played good defenses).  So if you take out his Ohio State numbers, he’s not exactly blowing anyone away with his offenses, and it’s clear that those three years under Urban are what made his career.

You can do the same exercise for a lot of guys who were coordinators under Meyer, and it becomes pretty clear that Urban has made the careers of a lot of coordinators who weren’t elite on their own. There are definitely some guys who probably would’ve been successful regardless, like Mullen, but it goes to show that Meyer doesn’t have to hire elite coordinators in order to have extremely good offenses and defenses.  

Edited October 23, 2020 by Burt Macklin

[wood 11121]

1 hour ago, 6th Street said:

I mean if Urbs wasn't available and you were looking at a grab bag of Fleck, Franklin, and Fatterson no way you'd see this level of urgency. 

Yeah I hope you're right, and I hope it's really happening like we all think/hope it is.  And I think there are maybe signs that you are right. But 'level of urgency' from whom? I mean ... I hope it exists with the people who matter, and I think the silence from those people might just be deafening.  In a good way. But who knows? We'll see ... hopefully soon.

Edited October 23, 2020 by wood

[Dbeasy 14961]

Right but some of those guys weren’t even very successful as coordinators under other HCs, which is the point regarding who Meyer chooses to hire as coordinators if he comes here. 
Take Herman as an example. His offenses at Iowa State weren’t very good. He ranked 64th, 94th, 80th. That’s not very good even for ISU. Then Herman goes to tOSU and has offenses ranked 16th, 2nd, 2nd and he’s billed as the next great offensive coach. Yet, his UH offenses weren’t blowing everyone away either. He had the 41st and 56th ranked offenses in his two years there. Then he gets to Texas and has offenses ranked 81st, 27th, 15th (and that 15th offense from last year had some clearly fatal flaws and never gave us a chance in games where we played good defenses).  So if you take out his Ohio State numbers, he’s not exactly blowing anyone away with his offenses, and it’s clear that those three years under Urban are what made his career.
You can do the same exercise for a lot of guys who were coordinators under Meyer, and it becomes pretty clear that Urban has made the careers of a lot of coordinators who weren’t elite on their own. There are definitely some guys who probably would’ve been successful regardless, like Mullen, but it goes to show that Meyer doesn’t have to hire elite coordinators in order to have extremely good offenses and defenses.  

The one concern about Urban offensively is that he doesn’t come from the air raid tree variants, and it’s looking more and more like a superior offensive scheme right now. OU is very difficult to stop, Mack is deploying it well at NC, even USC is seeing some improvement. If Urban ends up here I hope the guy is smart enough to understand how to evolve his offensive schemes to keep up with the Riley’s of the world.

[closetohumping 17386]

10 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The one concern about Urban offensively is that he doesn’t come from the air raid tree variants, and it’s looking more and more like a superior offensive scheme right now. OU is very difficult to stop, Mack is deploying it well at NC, even USC is seeing some improvement. If Urban ends up here I hope the guy is smart enough to understand how to evolve his offensive schemes to keep up with the Riley’s of the world.

Yea and Urban had trouble with ou in their last meeting.

 

I like the Air Raid but Bama, LSU, and Clemson don't run the Air Raid.

Edited October 23, 2020 by closetohumping

[tbone_ 14020]

Bosas at DE solve air raid issues.

[RGBIII 22798]

IT Humidor- Option#1 is Urban btw

Spoiler

TEAM

Tom Herman arrived with a national reputation for showing up in the big games. He’s done okay there, especially with a month of preparation. At this stage in his Texas tenure Baylor shouldn’t be a big game, but it’s the biggest one of his head coaching career.

We didn’t dive too deep on the team this week. What we did hear wasn’t great, or bad, or really surprising. Having covered this program, news from this week was sort of expected. You have frustrated coaches who know their jobs are on the line pressing hard, which in turn has the players pressing hard and making mistakes, and the beat goes on. They didn’t have the cleanest week of practice.

Wide receiver Jake Smith should be good to go, barring another last minute setback. If he plays they’ll look to get him going early with some easy targets. We should see more Tarik Black too.

Caden Sterns and Chris Brown practiced this week and should be available.

Keaontay Ingram is still RB1 but look for a bigger infusion of Bijan Robinson, especially if Roschon Johnson is still limited.

To begin the Q&A, I’ll state:

1. There’s no job opening at this point in time. Which means the subject is kind of touchy. If/when the job comes open, I’ll feel better about sharing more details.
2. I’ve said things remaining quiet is a good sign. Things are still quiet, but they weren’t all that quiet on my end. Steps have been taken that tell me Scenario #1 is a distinct possibility. That isn‘t to say it‘s a foregone conclusion or anything, but if back-channeling is footsie, there might be a hand on a thigh now.

Justin and Joe will copy and paste any relevant replies.

 

Say things go south with the Season and Urban ship sails for whatever reason. What Candidates do you see being targeted?

Purely guessing, Franklin and Campbell, but they’d probably make calls to bigger targets and get some declines first. Guys like Dabo and Kyle Shanahan that would have .01% chance of happening.

 

% of Sam coming back under the right coach or turn the page for Card or Jackson?

0.0%.

 

 

What decides Tom’s job - another loss or an agreement with UM?

Don’t know, but you don’t reassign Herman without a good plan in place.

 

There is no chance this team wins out lol. Next loss Herman is gone.

Agreed. Zero.

 

I watched TH's press conference on LHN. CDC says players are expected to stand for TEOT. TH says its a personal choice; he won't insist. Is it likely CDC has already told TH that he would be replaced and TH is "auditioning" for a new gig by being the "understanding coach" to another school? It seems his answer is NOT in alignment with CDC and TH is trying to come across as a players' coach to other schools interested in him.

Tom has no allies and the frustration is even deeper than what’s public and regarding a different topic. I’ll probably go into that in the coming weeks.

 

Is the topic something on or off the field?

Off.

 

Have y’all heard any pause from scenario 1 family?

I have heard the wife will have a say, but I also have a hard time believing it. Coaches’ wives know the deal. If she’s with him still, she’s with him forever.

 

I certainly don't want to paint you guys into a corner but can you provide a probability range for an in-season firing if we lose to OSU and one of Baylor or WVU (though I suspect if we lose to Baylor then we'll lose all three)?

I presume that the the only way we'd reassign him mid-year would be if we had the next guy locked down, is that fair?

I’m not providing a probability on it. I just don’t have anyone ruling out an in-season removal and have a few people expecting it.

Yeah, you don’t remove him without a plan in place.

So ideally,

1) Texas has a game similar to Tech/TCU/OU against either Baylor or Okie St.
2) Texas makes a mid-season change and cans Tom
3) Urban is hired in mid to late November and he only focuses on recruiting
4) The so-called transitional class becomes the 2021 and Urban reels in some gems.
5) This time next year we’re 5-0 or 6-0 with the makings of top three class in recruiting for 2022.

If you’re on board with Urban, this is how it should play out if UT can sign him.

I am so confused with these references to "Scenario #1, 2, 3" etc.

I’ve been writing about them a lot:

1. Urban
2. Tom somehow keeps his job
3. A real search

We didn’t hear anything about an O-line reshuffle. Only thing we heard OL related was Hand lost his cool numerous times. More than normal.

 

 

In your opinion, are there any prospects so interested in Texas that a wait-and-see protects them from the influence of other programs? If I am OU, A&M, etc. and I see a shared prospect waiting and seeing how Texas does, I am selling my program with a targeted full court press on the kid.

Programs are hammering Texas right now to key targets, as you would expect.

Here's one that could play big ... there is chatter (and I say chatter at this point for a reason to not say it's a guarantee) that the December early signing period may go away just this year and just have a February signing day/period. *IF* that happens, would be huge for Texas in the 2021 cycle. We shall see how it plays out. My bet is college coaches are split on it.

Herman's contract has set off language. Best case scenario is that we win out, and he either leaves and we waive the buyout, or we fire him and he agrees to a much lower buyout because he has another job ready. Hell, maybe USC will take him if they lose out on Urban. I can't root against the team even if it means Herman staying. Of course, the sting of a loss or ****ty season will definitely be less if we get Urban.

If/when it gets to that point, I’m expecting a negotiated number.

Assuming a coaching change takes place, what assistants you'd like to see remain on staff?

If it’s Urban, he has maintained an office at Ohio State. He’ll have a lot of insight on Yurcich. Yurcich won’t simply be graded by working with Herman. Ryan Day will have input. That’s good, because I was hoping he wouldn’t get an unfair shake.

If it’s Urban, he knows everything he needs to of Ash, but now gets to watch him in the Big 12. I think Ash and Valai have potential. I like Hutzler too.

If it’s Urban, he already knows Drayton, and Drayton has strong relationships with the two most important RB’s on the Texas radar: LJ Johnson and Jaydon Blue.

 

Meyer was the first coach to offer Ewers.

Indeed.

 

@Eric Nahlin I wanted to bring up again reassignment. What would that look like?

The same way it went for Augie Garrido, you make him a special assistant to whoever.

Then when the buyout drops, allow him to find more gainful employment.

 

Who will be Strength and Conditioning coach?

Probably not Yancy.

 

Joyner from SMU would be my choice as DL coach.

If recruiting is on pause, we should just get on with it. Hopefully wheels are turning behind the scenes.

The whole Q&A is about wheels turning behind the scenes.

 

I hope Young Coach Boom stays.

Hutzler is my early leader from Herman’s new hires this offseason for No. 1.

Potentially great recruiter, doing well with current LBs, and good feedback from parents.

 

 

 

Thats all the pertinent shit so far, mostly from Nahlin but a lot from Gerry and Wells as well...seems like there is a lot more behind the scenes shit we arent hearing but a TON of hopeful UM talk

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

32 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The one concern about Urban offensively is that he doesn’t come from the air raid tree variants, and it’s looking more and more like a superior offensive scheme right now. OU is very difficult to stop, Mack is deploying it well at NC, even USC is seeing some improvement. If Urban ends up here I hope the guy is smart enough to understand how to evolve his offensive schemes to keep up with the Riley’s of the world.

In Urban's last Ohio State offense, his quarterback threw for 4800 yards and 50 TDs.

His on-field coaching issues at Ohio State were due to nepotism-- retaining Zach Smith and Bill Davis-- and an almost insane level of trust and loyalty to guys whose units weren't producing (Tim Beck/Ed Warinner, Greg Schiano/Alex Grinch). Really, some of those Ohio State teams that won all but one or two games and spent all year in the Top Ten still had Greg Davis-level WTF problems-- like why the 2015 team struggled to move the ball/put points on the board, or why the 2018 team probably gave up more 70+ yd TDs in one year than in the rest of program history combined (I don't know if that's actually true, and don't really care-- it seemed like it). 

The main difference between Meyer's Ohio State and Greg Davis-era Texas is that Ohio State won 90% of its games and didn't get shit-stomped by its arch-rival on an annual basis. 

I have no qualms about hiring Meyer here but his tendency towards staff blind spots is a concern, something to keep an eye on. 

[bad_teammate 13132]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/10/2936696/head-coach-fired-stats

 

this is a very interesting read on mid season firings. 

I will be stealing this link to throw at a friend who is convinced we have to wait. Appreciated.

[TotallyLegit 3050]

35 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The one concern about Urban offensively is that he doesn’t come from the air raid tree variants, and it’s looking more and more like a superior offensive scheme right now. OU is very difficult to stop, Mack is deploying it well at NC, even USC is seeing some improvement. If Urban ends up here I hope the guy is smart enough to understand how to evolve his offensive schemes to keep up with the Riley’s of the world.

I think you can argue that since Ryan Day got to Ohio State, they're at least as much of an air raid offense as OU. I recall them shredding Michigan with mesh concepts recently. In my opinion, the biggest difference between the offenses is the OU running game, though not so much this year because they suck.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/12/5/18125491/ryan-day-ohio-state-head-coach-offense

 

[Dbeasy 14961]

43 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Yea and Urban had trouble with ou in their last meeting.

 

I like the Air Raid but Bama, LSU, and Clemson don't run the Air Raid.

that's why I said Air Raid variants, which mix spread and air raid concepts. THis is an interesting article on Clemson. It's from 2018 and covers Morris, so not sure how much their offense changed in the last two years.

https://matchquarters.com/2018/12/01/the-morris-clemson-offensive-system/

 

and another article on Urban's spread vs Leach's spread.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/5/6/11606684/the-4-main-schools-of-spread-offense-smashmouth-option-air-raid-pro-style

Edited October 23, 2020 by Dbeasy

[ztejas 43262]

2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

both blOU or tcu would go before TEXAS if they have only two losses

Might want to revisit that line of logic, chief.

One of them will have at least 3 losses. The only teams that could finish with less than 2 losses including a loss to Texas are K State and ISU. OU and TCU have tiebreaker but they are playing each other this weekend and both already have 2 conference losses. So only one - not both - could keep Texas out assuming Texas runs the table. Iowa State and KSU haven't played yet so same with them. Only one would be able to keep Texas out assuming Texas beats both. 

(Couple minor errors above but fuck me I'm not typing all of this shit out to a further degree when I already outlined the only two scenarios where Texas doesn't make it if we win out)

Edited October 23, 2020 by ztejas

[OnAComputer 1405]

7 hours ago, Thiefery said:

listened to @OnAComputer carry water for Tom on his podcast this morning.. But luckily his bu guest called it like he seen it.  Tom hasn't shown he can win with his own kids.

 

 

I was just saying, I am 1.) in denial 2.) not done with the season 3.) empathize with some of the fact that some things were out of his control this year like trying to install an entirely new defense and a new offense getting derailed by covid.

However, I thought I also had some scathing remarks in there as well, like his inability to win with his players, his inflexibility, his team's lack of discipline, and (I thought about another one while driving today) his inability to make half time adjustments.

All that said, I'm just not ready to give up yet. I'm clinging to whatever hope is out there.

Edited October 23, 2020 by OnAComputer

[RGBIII 22798]

4 minutes ago, OnAComputer said:

I was just saying, I am 1.) in denial 2.) not done with the season 3.) empathize with some of the fact that some things were out of his control this year

However, I thought I also had some scathing remarks in there as well.

I'm just not ready to give up yet.

You got better as the pod went on, ill chalk it up to denial for now. The start was definitely pro herman, I think the rational part of your brain caught on by the end. Especially when you were talking about ALL the mental mistakes and him coaching his guys

[OnAComputer 1405]

4 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Christ. 

This argument would make some sense if the 2020 team wasn't screwing up in the exact same ways as the 2019 team. Or the 2018 team. Or the 2017 team. 

Too many penalties. Terrible special teams play. Turtling tendencies. Bad strategic decision-making. These are not unique to 2020. These are hallmarks of bad coaching. Period. 

Oh yeah. I brought this up in the show as well. I wasn't carrying water. Just a solo cup of G2 vodka.

[OnAComputer 1405]

2 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

You got better as the pod went on, ill chalk it up to denial for now. The start was definitely pro herman, I think the rational part of your brain caught on by the end. Especially when you were talking about ALL the mental mistakes and him coaching his guys

I split the show into potentially valid reason for the rough start/to have hope still and inexcusable issues over 4 years.

Edited October 23, 2020 by OnAComputer

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

I want to know what the off the field issue is thats a bigger deal than Tom's sucking or the EOT.

[wood 11121]

28 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

IT Humidor- Option#1 is Urban btw

  Hide contents

TEAM

Tom Herman arrived with a national reputation for showing up in the big games. He’s done okay there, especially with a month of preparation. At this stage in his Texas tenure Baylor shouldn’t be a big game, but it’s the biggest one of his head coaching career.

We didn’t dive too deep on the team this week. What we did hear wasn’t great, or bad, or really surprising. Having covered this program, news from this week was sort of expected. You have frustrated coaches who know their jobs are on the line pressing hard, which in turn has the players pressing hard and making mistakes, and the beat goes on. They didn’t have the cleanest week of practice.

Wide receiver Jake Smith should be good to go, barring another last minute setback. If he plays they’ll look to get him going early with some easy targets. We should see more Tarik Black too.

Caden Sterns and Chris Brown practiced this week and should be available.

Keaontay Ingram is still RB1 but look for a bigger infusion of Bijan Robinson, especially if Roschon Johnson is still limited.

To begin the Q&A, I’ll state:

1. There’s no job opening at this point in time. Which means the subject is kind of touchy. If/when the job comes open, I’ll feel better about sharing more details.
2. I’ve said things remaining quiet is a good sign. Things are still quiet, but they weren’t all that quiet on my end. Steps have been taken that tell me Scenario #1 is a distinct possibility. That isn‘t to say it‘s a foregone conclusion or anything, but if back-channeling is footsie, there might be a hand on a thigh now.

Justin and Joe will copy and paste any relevant replies.

 

Say things go south with the Season and Urban ship sails for whatever reason. What Candidates do you see being targeted?

Purely guessing, Franklin and Campbell, but they’d probably make calls to bigger targets and get some declines first. Guys like Dabo and Kyle Shanahan that would have .01% chance of happening.

 

% of Sam coming back under the right coach or turn the page for Card or Jackson?

0.0%.

 

 

What decides Tom’s job - another loss or an agreement with UM?

Don’t know, but you don’t reassign Herman without a good plan in place.

 

There is no chance this team wins out lol. Next loss Herman is gone.

Agreed. Zero.

 

I watched TH's press conference on LHN. CDC says players are expected to stand for TEOT. TH says its a personal choice; he won't insist. Is it likely CDC has already told TH that he would be replaced and TH is "auditioning" for a new gig by being the "understanding coach" to another school? It seems his answer is NOT in alignment with CDC and TH is trying to come across as a players' coach to other schools interested in him.

Tom has no allies and the frustration is even deeper than what’s public and regarding a different topic. I’ll probably go into that in the coming weeks.

 

Is the topic something on or off the field?

Off.

 

Have y’all heard any pause from scenario 1 family?

I have heard the wife will have a say, but I also have a hard time believing it. Coaches’ wives know the deal. If she’s with him still, she’s with him forever.

 

I certainly don't want to paint you guys into a corner but can you provide a probability range for an in-season firing if we lose to OSU and one of Baylor or WVU (though I suspect if we lose to Baylor then we'll lose all three)?

I presume that the the only way we'd reassign him mid-year would be if we had the next guy locked down, is that fair?

I’m not providing a probability on it. I just don’t have anyone ruling out an in-season removal and have a few people expecting it.

Yeah, you don’t remove him without a plan in place.

So ideally,

1) Texas has a game similar to Tech/TCU/OU against either Baylor or Okie St.
2) Texas makes a mid-season change and cans Tom
3) Urban is hired in mid to late November and he only focuses on recruiting
4) The so-called transitional class becomes the 2021 and Urban reels in some gems.
5) This time next year we’re 5-0 or 6-0 with the makings of top three class in recruiting for 2022.

If you’re on board with Urban, this is how it should play out if UT can sign him.

I am so confused with these references to "Scenario #1, 2, 3" etc.

I’ve been writing about them a lot:

1. Urban
2. Tom somehow keeps his job
3. A real search

We didn’t hear anything about an O-line reshuffle. Only thing we heard OL related was Hand lost his cool numerous times. More than normal.

 

 

In your opinion, are there any prospects so interested in Texas that a wait-and-see protects them from the influence of other programs? If I am OU, A&M, etc. and I see a shared prospect waiting and seeing how Texas does, I am selling my program with a targeted full court press on the kid.

Programs are hammering Texas right now to key targets, as you would expect.

Here's one that could play big ... there is chatter (and I say chatter at this point for a reason to not say it's a guarantee) that the December early signing period may go away just this year and just have a February signing day/period. *IF* that happens, would be huge for Texas in the 2021 cycle. We shall see how it plays out. My bet is college coaches are split on it.

Herman's contract has set off language. Best case scenario is that we win out, and he either leaves and we waive the buyout, or we fire him and he agrees to a much lower buyout because he has another job ready. Hell, maybe USC will take him if they lose out on Urban. I can't root against the team even if it means Herman staying. Of course, the sting of a loss or ****ty season will definitely be less if we get Urban.

If/when it gets to that point, I’m expecting a negotiated number.

Assuming a coaching change takes place, what assistants you'd like to see remain on staff?

If it’s Urban, he has maintained an office at Ohio State. He’ll have a lot of insight on Yurcich. Yurcich won’t simply be graded by working with Herman. Ryan Day will have input. That’s good, because I was hoping he wouldn’t get an unfair shake.

If it’s Urban, he knows everything he needs to of Ash, but now gets to watch him in the Big 12. I think Ash and Valai have potential. I like Hutzler too.

If it’s Urban, he already knows Drayton, and Drayton has strong relationships with the two most important RB’s on the Texas radar: LJ Johnson and Jaydon Blue.

 

Meyer was the first coach to offer Ewers.

Indeed.

 

@Eric Nahlin I wanted to bring up again reassignment. What would that look like?

The same way it went for Augie Garrido, you make him a special assistant to whoever.

Then when the buyout drops, allow him to find more gainful employment.

 

Who will be Strength and Conditioning coach?

Probably not Yancy.

 

Joyner from SMU would be my choice as DL coach.

If recruiting is on pause, we should just get on with it. Hopefully wheels are turning behind the scenes.

The whole Q&A is about wheels turning behind the scenes.

 

I hope Young Coach Boom stays.

Hutzler is my early leader from Herman’s new hires this offseason for No. 1.

Potentially great recruiter, doing well with current LBs, and good feedback from parents.

 

 

 

Thats all the pertinent shit so far, mostly from Nahlin but a lot from Gerry and Wells as well...seems like there is a lot more behind the scenes shit we arent hearing but a TON of hopeful UM talk

Good shit, yo. Repped.

[Bigbend1812 12884]

[ztejas 43262]

9 minutes ago, OnAComputer said:

Oh yeah. I brought this up in the show as well. I wasn't carrying water. Just a solo cup of G2 vodka.

Link to your podcast? 

[OnAComputer 1405]

6 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Link to your podcast? 

Hornscast
Podbean: https://hornscast.podbean.com/e/4th-and-5where-does-texas-go-from-here-and-baylor-preview-with-sicem365/
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0lNO6Dt76rFNXPnk2TOono?si=Eg5uaCQnSJ2itQHVt1H_8A
Apple: http://feeds.soundcloud.com/users/soundcloud:users:183036682/sounds.rss
Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL2hvcm5zY2FzdC9mZWVkLnhtbA

Edited October 23, 2020 by OnAComputer

[Darth Tron 1122]

5 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I want to know what the off the field issue is thats a bigger deal than Tom's sucking or the EOT.

Hitting the bottle again?  Thought I saw that intimated somewhere.

[RGBIII 22798]

7 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I want to know what the off the field issue is thats a bigger deal than Tom's sucking or the EOT.

Insubordination or maybe just him and CDC hating each other 

[UncleBuck 6444]

37 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

IT Humidor- Option#1 is Urban btw

  Reveal hidden contents

TEAM

Tom Herman arrived with a national reputation for showing up in the big games. He’s done okay there, especially with a month of preparation. At this stage in his Texas tenure Baylor shouldn’t be a big game, but it’s the biggest one of his head coaching career.

We didn’t dive too deep on the team this week. What we did hear wasn’t great, or bad, or really surprising. Having covered this program, news from this week was sort of expected. You have frustrated coaches who know their jobs are on the line pressing hard, which in turn has the players pressing hard and making mistakes, and the beat goes on. They didn’t have the cleanest week of practice.

Wide receiver Jake Smith should be good to go, barring another last minute setback. If he plays they’ll look to get him going early with some easy targets. We should see more Tarik Black too.

Caden Sterns and Chris Brown practiced this week and should be available.

Keaontay Ingram is still RB1 but look for a bigger infusion of Bijan Robinson, especially if Roschon Johnson is still limited.

To begin the Q&A, I’ll state:

1. There’s no job opening at this point in time. Which means the subject is kind of touchy. If/when the job comes open, I’ll feel better about sharing more details.
2. I’ve said things remaining quiet is a good sign. Things are still quiet, but they weren’t all that quiet on my end. Steps have been taken that tell me Scenario #1 is a distinct possibility. That isn‘t to say it‘s a foregone conclusion or anything, but if back-channeling is footsie, there might be a hand on a thigh now.

Justin and Joe will copy and paste any relevant replies.

 

Say things go south with the Season and Urban ship sails for whatever reason. What Candidates do you see being targeted?

Purely guessing, Franklin and Campbell, but they’d probably make calls to bigger targets and get some declines first. Guys like Dabo and Kyle Shanahan that would have .01% chance of happening.

 

% of Sam coming back under the right coach or turn the page for Card or Jackson?

0.0%.

 

 

What decides Tom’s job - another loss or an agreement with UM?

Don’t know, but you don’t reassign Herman without a good plan in place.

 

There is no chance this team wins out lol. Next loss Herman is gone.

Agreed. Zero.

 

I watched TH's press conference on LHN. CDC says players are expected to stand for TEOT. TH says its a personal choice; he won't insist. Is it likely CDC has already told TH that he would be replaced and TH is "auditioning" for a new gig by being the "understanding coach" to another school? It seems his answer is NOT in alignment with CDC and TH is trying to come across as a players' coach to other schools interested in him.

Tom has no allies and the frustration is even deeper than what’s public and regarding a different topic. I’ll probably go into that in the coming weeks.

 

Is the topic something on or off the field?

Off.

 

Have y’all heard any pause from scenario 1 family?

I have heard the wife will have a say, but I also have a hard time believing it. Coaches’ wives know the deal. If she’s with him still, she’s with him forever.

 

I certainly don't want to paint you guys into a corner but can you provide a probability range for an in-season firing if we lose to OSU and one of Baylor or WVU (though I suspect if we lose to Baylor then we'll lose all three)?

I presume that the the only way we'd reassign him mid-year would be if we had the next guy locked down, is that fair?

I’m not providing a probability on it. I just don’t have anyone ruling out an in-season removal and have a few people expecting it.

Yeah, you don’t remove him without a plan in place.

So ideally,

1) Texas has a game similar to Tech/TCU/OU against either Baylor or Okie St.
2) Texas makes a mid-season change and cans Tom
3) Urban is hired in mid to late November and he only focuses on recruiting
4) The so-called transitional class becomes the 2021 and Urban reels in some gems.
5) This time next year we’re 5-0 or 6-0 with the makings of top three class in recruiting for 2022.

If you’re on board with Urban, this is how it should play out if UT can sign him.

I am so confused with these references to "Scenario #1, 2, 3" etc.

I’ve been writing about them a lot:

1. Urban
2. Tom somehow keeps his job
3. A real search

We didn’t hear anything about an O-line reshuffle. Only thing we heard OL related was Hand lost his cool numerous times. More than normal.

 

 

In your opinion, are there any prospects so interested in Texas that a wait-and-see protects them from the influence of other programs? If I am OU, A&M, etc. and I see a shared prospect waiting and seeing how Texas does, I am selling my program with a targeted full court press on the kid.

Programs are hammering Texas right now to key targets, as you would expect.

Here's one that could play big ... there is chatter (and I say chatter at this point for a reason to not say it's a guarantee) that the December early signing period may go away just this year and just have a February signing day/period. *IF* that happens, would be huge for Texas in the 2021 cycle. We shall see how it plays out. My bet is college coaches are split on it.

Herman's contract has set off language. Best case scenario is that we win out, and he either leaves and we waive the buyout, or we fire him and he agrees to a much lower buyout because he has another job ready. Hell, maybe USC will take him if they lose out on Urban. I can't root against the team even if it means Herman staying. Of course, the sting of a loss or ****ty season will definitely be less if we get Urban.

If/when it gets to that point, I’m expecting a negotiated number.

Assuming a coaching change takes place, what assistants you'd like to see remain on staff?

If it’s Urban, he has maintained an office at Ohio State. He’ll have a lot of insight on Yurcich. Yurcich won’t simply be graded by working with Herman. Ryan Day will have input. That’s good, because I was hoping he wouldn’t get an unfair shake.

If it’s Urban, he knows everything he needs to of Ash, but now gets to watch him in the Big 12. I think Ash and Valai have potential. I like Hutzler too.

If it’s Urban, he already knows Drayton, and Drayton has strong relationships with the two most important RB’s on the Texas radar: LJ Johnson and Jaydon Blue.

 

Meyer was the first coach to offer Ewers.

Indeed.

 

@Eric Nahlin I wanted to bring up again reassignment. What would that look like?

The same way it went for Augie Garrido, you make him a special assistant to whoever.

Then when the buyout drops, allow him to find more gainful employment.

 

Who will be Strength and Conditioning coach?

Probably not Yancy.

 

Joyner from SMU would be my choice as DL coach.

If recruiting is on pause, we should just get on with it. Hopefully wheels are turning behind the scenes.

The whole Q&A is about wheels turning behind the scenes.

 

I hope Young Coach Boom stays.

Hutzler is my early leader from Herman’s new hires this offseason for No. 1.

Potentially great recruiter, doing well with current LBs, and good feedback from parents.

 

 

 

Thats all the pertinent shit so far, mostly from Nahlin but a lot from Gerry and Wells as well...seems like there is a lot more behind the scenes shit we arent hearing but a TON of hopeful UM talk

So basically to translate: IT'S HAPPENING TO THE BUNKER!