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Sam Ehlinger


wild_turkey

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1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

This seems to be an indictment of Beck and the rest of the offensive coaching staff:

2018:

Sam's EPA/play: .366

Sam's EPA/dropback: .349

Sam's EPA/rush: .422

2019:

EPA/play: .364

EPA/dropback: .352

EPA/rush: .413

From an EPA standpoint, Sam did not improve in 2019 from 2018.  Note that elite college QBs are around .500 or greater in EPA/play (Burrow was .641 this season), so Sam and Yurcich have some work to do if they wish to reach those same heights.  

 

I'm not sure what EPA is, but in the stats I see he had a better 2019 season than in 2018.

Ehlinger completed 65.2 percent of his passes in 2019, threw for 3,663 yards and 32 touchdowns while rushing for 663 yards and seven touchdowns.

His 332.8 yards of total offense per game ranks fourth nationally behind only Washington State's Anthony Gordon (427.6), LSU's Joe Burrow (394.2) and Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts (367.8). [\quote]

 

Ehlingher threw for 3,296 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 482 yards and 16 scores in 2018.[\quote]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/watch-texas-qb-sam-ehlinger-announces-return-to-longhorns-for-senior-season/

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Please do not ever look at volume stats like total passing yards and touchdowns, as these a reflection of usage as much as or more so than efficiency.  Also, completion percentage elides what kinds of passes are being completed as downfield passes are both harder to complete and much more valuable.  A publicly available completion percentage metric that incorporates air yards (like NFL's CPOE) would be very valuable in determining the effectiveness of each QB, but we don't have that for college.

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I wish we could see what Casey could do with actual snaps. He's much quicker than Sam, but he never gets to build a rapport with the WR's. I think he could be really good. It just seems like we've seen all Sam can do, which is good, but I'm not sure he's going to reach Burrow-level even with Yurcich at the helm. 

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5 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I wish we could see what Casey could do with actual snaps. He's much quicker than Sam, but he never gets to build a rapport with the WR's. I think he could be really good. It just seems like we've seen all Sam can do, which is good, but I'm not sure he's going to reach Burrow-level even with Yurcich at the helm. 

If he sticks around, he'll get his shot after this year.

Don't be too quick to dismiss Sam, we've all seen what the bad-to-mediocre QB wilderness is like.

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3 minutes ago, texifornia said:

If he sticks around, he'll get his shot after this year.

Don't be too quick to dismiss Sam, we've all seen what the bad-to-mediocre QB wilderness is like.

A-men. Sam, so far, has been a good if not great QB. Hopefully he's great in 2020. But it cannot be denied that he is light years beyond the decade of darkness that followed McCoy's departure.

Swoopes there it is!

Cracked the Case!

Have you Heard?

Got nothing for Gilbert ...

Thanks for coming back Sam.

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23 minutes ago, texifornia said:

If he sticks around, he'll get his shot after this year.

Don't be too quick to dismiss Sam, we've all seen what the bad-to-mediocre QB wilderness is like.

I agree with you. I'm hoping Yurcich (sp?) can do wonders for Sam, but hope is running low. I'm also ready to see what Casey can do, too. I feel like he's gotten the shaft in a way, and we need someone with playing time to take over after Sam leaves, 

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33 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

I'd like to see a stat that accounts for catch yardage as well as yac, and for both receiver and passer. There's a considerable difference between a fifty-yard pass to the end zone for a TD and a bubble screen for -3 yards with a 53 yard run for the TD. 

This is true and something I wish we had.  Indeed, completion percentage that accounts for air yards is one of the best metrics to rely upon when judging how well a college QB will perform in the NFL.  The data apparently exists but it's not publicly available.  

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

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40 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I wish we could see what Casey could do with actual snaps. He's much quicker than Sam, but he never gets to build a rapport with the WR's. I think he could be really good. It just seems like we've seen all Sam can do, which is good, but I'm not sure he's going to reach Burrow-level even with Yurcich at the helm. 

this is so fucking stupid.

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Also, as noted in that fivethirtyeight article, total QBR is probably the best publicly available metric we have for evaluating college QBs, and Sam performed exactly the same in 2018 and 2019 (77.3 QBR in both seasons).  Hopefully Yurcich will help with the stall in Sam's development that occurred this season.

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30 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

I'd like to see a stat that accounts for catch yardage as well as yac, and for both receiver and passer. There's a considerable difference between a fifty-yard pass to the end zone for a TD and a bubble screen for -3 yards with a 53 yard run for the TD. 

It’s called air yards and it’s already widely used in the NFL, but there’s also something to be said for someone who leads their receiver on a pass and lets him keep running versus throwing behind him and killing his momentum. Air yards is interesting to look at, but there’s still a ton of stuff it doesn’t tell you. 
 

44 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I wish we could see what Casey could do with actual snaps. He's much quicker than Sam, but he never gets to build a rapport with the WR's. I think he could be really good. It just seems like we've seen all Sam can do, which is good, but I'm not sure he's going to reach Burrow-level even with Yurcich at the helm. 

this is monumentally stupid, even for you.
Sam is a damn good college QB and miles better than Casey. 

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Just now, Burt Macklin said:

 

It’s called air yards and it’s already widely used in the NFL, but there’s also something to be said for someone who leads their receiver on a pass and lets him keep running versus throwing behind him and killing his momentum. Air yards is interesting to look at, but there’s still a ton of stuff it doesn’t tell you. 
 

this is monumentally stupid, even for you.
Sam is a damn good college QB and miles better than Casey. 

I'm not saying he's better, I'm just saying I want to see what Casey can do. He gets no time to build a rapport with the WR's, and he's quicker. That doesn't mean he's better, but if Sam goes down, then what? He's the heir to the qb throne, allegedly, and we know nothing about him. I'm hoping Sam takes a Burrow-like leap next season. 

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why exactly is Casey "the heir to the QB throne"?

He's the backup? Who else has experience behind Sam? Our walk-on qb Sexton just transferred out. Who else is there? JQJ? Card? No one with any experience at the college level?

Edited by Spider2YBanana
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He's not the only QB on the team.  I'm not suggesting he wouldn't (or shouldn't) get a shot, and it wouldn't shock me if he stays ahead of Roschon Johnson as much because Johnson has shown great promise at running back as any other reason, but we do have QB recruits coming in, too.

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Lulz at Fozz bending over backwards to default to shitty metrics. EPA/play is not a QB stat. It’s a team stat. It doesn’t filter out the performance of the other ten players, so the same QB in a shitty offense would have a way worse EPA/play than if he was in a good offense.

QBR is a joke. ESPN hasn’t put out exactly how they calculate it, but it’s been widely criticized and very flawed. Also not surprising that 538, An ESPN subsidiary, is pushing ESPN’s metric. 
 

Even the new gen stats Fozz is referencing have a ton of noise that mess with their analysis. One of the metrics recently created that uses EPA heavily has Rodgers as the best QB in the NFL, which isn’t even close to true. The reality is all these advanced metrics will have an almost impossible time filtering out all the variables that affect QB play, so we’ll never have a metric as reliable as WAR in baseball. For Someone like Fozz who’s just dying to be a slave to metrics, that’s a painful, yet unfortunately not silent, reality. 

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Sam is not getting into the top 4 of all time, but I hope he has a great year.

 

Here is some random webpage draft guy projecting him as a 4-6th rounder this year:

https://walterfootball.com/draft2020QB.php

 

https://withthefirstpick.com/2020/01/07/texas-qb-sam-ehlinger-returns-to-texas-2020-nfl-draft/

 

Quote

After a letdown 2019 season for the Longhorns, quarterback Sam Ehlinger has decided he will not enter the 2020 NFL Draft and return to Texas.

Sam Ehlinger, he talented Longhorns signal caller for the Texas Longhorns posted on his Twitter account that he has decided to return for his senior season after an inconsistent 2019 that saw significant staff changes for his program. He did not match up well against the quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft and now has a year to sharpen his game.

Ehlinger posted a solid junior season in all aspects but the 10 interceptions doomed him as he threw for 3,664 yards on 454 attempts, good for a 65% completion percentage. His throws averaged around eight yards per attempt while leading Texas to an 8-5 record and a bowl win over the vaunted Utah defense. He also rushed for 663 yards and seven touchdowns on a team leading 163 carries.

Stylistically, one can reasonably infer that he is Tim Tebow / Josh Allen as a 6’3 230 pound athlete playing the quarterback position. Like the aforementioned Tebow, he isn’t afraid to make the physical run in between the tackles. He has the arm talent to make most of the big league throws required at the next level even if his accuracy is still developmental even as a junior. He has developed good pocket awareness in 2019 after a horrendous start in that regard to his college career.

Even with the change in offensive coordinators to now former Ohio State QB coach / Passing Game Coordinator Mike Yurcich, Ehlinger was wise to return for a senior season to learn under an OC who developed Justin Fields into an elite passer. Perhaps Yurcich can progress Ehlinger into something resembling a much more accurate Josh Allen during the 2020 season.

 

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9 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I'm not saying he's better, I'm just saying I want to see what Casey can do. He gets no time to build a rapport with the WR's, and he's quicker. That doesn't mean he's better, but if Sam goes down, then what? He's the heir to the qb throne, allegedly, and we know nothing about him. I'm hoping Sam takes a Burrow-like leap next season. 

Now you’re just doubling down on your stupidity. Sam is a top ten QB in college football. You don’t bench a guy like that, ever. The coaches can see what Casey can do in practice, and it’s obvious he’s not better than Sam.

Casey’s not the “heir to the throne.” He’ll be one of multiple guys competing for the job next year. He was a flaws HS prospect and he’s still not that great of a passer. There’s a good chance a RS FR Card or JQJ beat him out or at least take ive effort him somewhere through the 2021 season. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

He's not the only QB on the team.  I'm not suggesting he wouldn't (or shouldn't) get a shot, and it wouldn't shock me if he stays ahead of Roschon Johnson as much because Johnson has shown great promise at running back as any other reason, but we do have QB recruits coming in, too.

I don't know anything about Johnson as a qb, other than what has been posted here, but people are saying his mechanics need work, and he's a beast at RB. Are we sure he'll even move back to qb? I'm all for it if it helps us win and he's the best. I just don't know of anyone outside of Thompson that has any experience in an actual college game as a qb, which is why I brought him up. Card and JQJ will need 1-2 years to get acclimated to the speed of the game, and I'm not sure what Rojo brings to the table as a qb. He's a stud RB, so nothing would surprise me with him. 

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6 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Now you’re just doubling down on your stupidity. Sam is a top ten QB in college football. You don’t bench a guy like that, ever. The coaches can see what Casey can do in practice, and it’s obvious he’s not better than Sam.

Casey’s not the “heir to the throne.” He’ll be one of multiple guys competing for the job next year. He was a flaws HS prospect and he’s still not that great of a passer. There’s a good chance a RS FR Card or JQJ beat him out or at least take ive effort him somewhere through the 2021 season. 

 

 

I don't want Sam benched, and didn't say anything about doing that. What are you talking about? I want him to take the next step with his new OC/QB coach. I brought Casey up because right now he's next in line until someone beats him out for the job. 

 

Sam is the man, but he has flaws that I hope his new coach can correct. He'll be a senior and hopefully gets us to either a NY6 bowl or the CFP. 

Edited by Spider2YBanana
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1 minute ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I don't want Sam benched, and didn't say anything about doing that. What are you talking about? I want him to take the next step with his new OC/QB coach. I brought Casey up because right now he's next in line until someone beats him out for the job. 

 

36 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I'm hoping Yurcich (sp?) can do wonders for Sam, but hope is running low. I'm also ready to see what Casey can do, too.

You said hope is running low on a top ten college QB and then said you’re ready to see what Casey can do. Well, you cant see what Casey can do or give him any meaningful experience for 2021 without benching Sam, so even if you couldn’t figure it out, you were advocating for Casey playing over Sam.

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8 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

Card and JQJ will need 1-2 years to get acclimated to the speed of the game, 

You don't know that.  They'll hopefully get that first season, regardless.  There are plenty of examples of freshman QBs performing at a high level in recent years -- Winston, Manziel, McCoy, Barrett, Bradford, Fromm, Pryor, Griffin, Hurts, Lawrence all come to mind.

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7 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

Sam is the man, but he has flaws that I hope his new coach can correct. He'll be a senior and hopefully gets us to either a NY6 bowl or the CFP. 

Interestingly enough, there was a lot of talk about how similar he and Joe Burrow were before the season started.  I don't think anyone would be foolish enough to draw that equivalence now, but it does go to show that the right coach can make a big difference.

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Just now, Burt Macklin said:

 

You said hope is running low on a top ten college QB and then said you’re ready to see what Casey can do. Well, you cant see what Casey can do or give him any meaningful experience for 2021 without benching Sam, so even if you couldn’t figure it out, you were advocating for Casey playing over Sam.

I wrote it wrong. What I meant by hope is running low is that he's had 4 years and it's time to take that next step. I don't want Casey starting over him considering he has almost zero playing time. I'm just ready for Sam to take over and get us to the promised land. He's better than 4 losses a season. I blame most of that on the coaches, which is why I said I hope his new coach can get the best out of him. That's my bad for wording it wrong. 

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Don't think anyone here wants Sam benched. On the other extreme, don't think anyone wants him playing every single snap - unless absolutely needed. 

Howsomever, I'd damned sure like to see the backup get meaningful snaps, with the rest of the first-teamers, whenever possible. You know,just in case Sam gets Brewered on his first possession in the NC Championship against Bama. It could happen.

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Interestingly enough, there was a lot of talk about how similar he and Joe Burrow were before the season started.  I don't think anyone would be foolish enough to draw that equivalence now, but it does go to show that the right coach can make a big difference.

Exactly. That's what I'm hoping for. I don't expect an undefeated season, but I expect no less than 1-2 losses as a senior. From everything that's been talked about, Yurcich gets the most out of his QB's, so I'm ready. 

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6 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lulz at Fozz bending over backwards to default to shitty metrics. EPA/play is not a QB stat. It’s a team stat. It doesn’t filter out the performance of the other ten players, so the same QB in a shitty offense would have a way worse EPA/play than if he was in a good offense.

QBR is a joke. ESPN hasn’t put out exactly how they calculate it, but it’s been widely criticized and very flawed. Also not surprising that 538, An ESPN subsidiary, is pushing ESPN’s metric. 
 

Even the new gen stats Fozz is referencing have a ton of noise that mess with their analysis. One of the metrics recently created that uses EPA heavily has Rodgers as the best QB in the NFL, which isn’t even close to true. The reality is all these advanced metrics will have an almost impossible time filtering out all the variables that affect QB play, so we’ll never have a metric as reliable as WAR in baseball. For Someone like Fozz who’s just dying to be a slave to metrics, that’s a painful, yet unfortunately not silent, reality. 

This is a lot of words to say next to nothing other than the stats are flawed (lol no shit).  No one is arguing that we have or will have stats for measuring individual production of the same caliber as those used in other sports.  Also, although you don't state what stat you are referring to, Rodgers' actual EPA/play is nowhere near the best in the league.  I'm not sure what you are even trying to say by arguing that EPA is a "team stat" and not a "QB stat."  The best stat out there for predicting future QB performance combines EPA/play with CPOE, so EPA/play certainly has value in judging the performance of QBs.  I don't know why you think QBR is a "garbage stat" given that it's comprehensive, opponent adjusted, and about as predictive of future performance than things like YPA, DVOA, etc.  

All in all, nice try retard.  

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I wonder which one of us will have more luck - you finding posts made by me where I argue that things like EPA are somehow comparable to baseball WAR, or posts made by you whining about how Texas was criminally underrated heading into this season by SP+, only to look like a huge dumbass as the season unfolded.

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You don't know that.  They'll hopefully get that first season, regardless.  There are plenty of examples of freshman QBs performing at a high level in recent years -- Winston, Manziel, McCoy, Barrett, Bradford, Fromm, Pryor, Griffin, Hurts, Lawrence all come to mind.

I'm just being realistic with our two QB's coming in. If they're ready, play them. I just want the best to play. Lawrence is on another level, tho. Manziel and Mccoy were rs frosh, not sure on the others. Hurts is an interesting one. He was surrounded by insane talent and a competent coaching staff. 

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8 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I'm just being realistic with our two QB's coming in. If they're ready, play them. I just want the best to play. Lawrence is on another level, tho. Manziel and Mccoy were rs frosh, not sure on the others. Hurts is an interesting one. He was surrounded by insane talent and a competent coaching staff. 

That doesn't change my point -- we have 2 backups in 2020.  Hopefully the 2 studs coming will be able to redshirt and then give the current two guys a run for their money in 2021.  

I was only trying to illustrate that a delay acclimating to the "speed of the game" isn't necessarily written in stone.  

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lol this must be the stat to which Burt Tardlin refers.  Note that this is a volume stat, not a rate stat, and thus should not be used in judging the quality of play of a given player, as I said above.  SIS doesn't even have a /play version of this stat.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/introducing-total-points

 

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That doesn't change my point -- we have 2 backups in 2020.  Hopefully the 2 studs coming will be able to redshirt and then give the current two guys a run for their money in 2021.  

I was only trying to illustrate that a delay acclimating to the "speed of the game" isn't necessarily written in stone.  

Yeah, I see what you're saying, and you could be right. Let's hope both are as advertised because they're both studs. Still can't believe we landed both. 

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24 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

This is a lot of words to say next to nothing other than the stats are flawed (lol no shit).  No one is arguing that we have or will have stats for measuring individual production of the same caliber as those used in other sports.  Also, although you don't state what stat you are referring to, Rodgers' actual EPA/play is nowhere near the best in the league.  I'm not sure what you are even trying to say by arguing that EPA is a "team stat" and not a "QB stat."  The best stat out there for predicting future QB performance combines EPA/play with CPOE, so EPA/play certainly has value in judging the performance of QBs.  I don't know why you think QBR is a "garbage stat" given that it's comprehensive, opponent adjusted, and about as predictive of future performance than things like YPA, DVOA, etc.  

All in all, nice try retard.  

EPA takes in team performance, it’s not a QB individual statistic. It doesn’t isolate for the performance of the other players on the field. And yes, you ignoring evaluating players for trying to rely on advanced stats, which struggle to isolate individual player performance in football, is what you’re doing and it’s dumb. 

21 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

I wonder which one of us will have more luck - you finding posts made by me where I argue that things like EPA are somehow comparable to baseball WAR, or posts made by you whining about how Texas was criminally underrated heading into this season by SP+, only to look like a huge dumbass as the season unfolded.

Hahaha this is great. S&P underrated Herman teams for 4 straight years in both is pre-season Rankings and even its retrospective second order wins (Sushihorn did the math and even second order wins averaged being off by over a game per year). Yet, the first year where S&P is correct, which coincided with a bunch of things going to shit for Herman, you want to come in  and claim that S&P was always right all along. I truly admire your desire to be a slave to the metrics and ever actually think for yourself. Based on your posting history for this site, not thinking for yourself is probably the best strategy. 

Edited by Burt Macklin
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4 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

lol this must be the stat to which Burt Tardlin refers.  Note that this is a volume stat, not a rate stat, and thus should not be used in judging the quality of play of a given player, as I said above.  SIS doesn't even have a /play version of this stat.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/introducing-total-points

 

Nope. Wrong again. I understand why efficiency stats are more important and use them often.  
But unlike you, I understand they have limits in usefulness, especially in a team sport like football where it’s impossible to filter out all other variables. 
 

It is funny that anyone who isn’t a slave to the metrics like you, gets considered to be so far gone that they only use volume stats.

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6 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

EPA takes in team performance, it’s not a QB individual statistic. It doesn’t isolate for the performance of the other players on the field. And yes, you ignoring evaluating players for trying to rely on advanced stats, which struggle to isolate individual player performance in football, is what you’re doing and it’s dumb. 

Hahaha this is great. S&P underrated Herman teams for 4 straight years in both is pre-season Rankings and even its retrospective second order wins (Sushihorn did the math and even second order wins averaged being off by over a game per year). Yet, the first year where S&P is correct, which coincided with a bunch of things going to shit for Herman, you want to come in  and claim that S&P was always right all along. I truly admire your desire to be a slave to the metrics and ever actually think for yourself. Based on your posting history for this site, not thinking for yourself is probably the best strategy. 

No stat isolates for the performance of the other players on the field.  You might as well argue that YPA, completion percentage, or any other stat.  Even in baseball you can't fully isolate a hitter's or pitcher's performance over what is contributed by opposing players and noise.  The fact that you can't isolate a player's skill from noise and the contribution of other players' skills will always be true and pointing that out is not in any way profound or interesting.  It's just an obvious statement that has no bearing on anything I've said on this thread, yet you keep bleating it.  

As for SP+ underrating Herman's teams in prior seasons, I'm not aware of Sushi's post but I don't think SP+ has a history of underrating Texas.  For instance, S&P+ had Texas going 8-4 in it's pre-season 2017 projected record.  So, relative to SP+'s preseason expectations, during Tom's tenure at Texas it overrated his team one season, underrated it another, and just about nailed it in the third. 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/5/17/15634960/texas-longhorns-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

More importantly though, the fact that Tom had overperformed relative to SP+ in his time at UH was no basis for arguing that you should expect Tom to continue to perform relative to that metric.  It was probably just noise!  

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2 hours ago, Tex Long said:

Don't think anyone here wants Sam benched. On the other extreme, don't think anyone wants him playing every single snap - unless absolutely needed. 

Howsomever, I'd damned sure like to see the backup get meaningful snaps, with the rest of the first-teamers, whenever possible. You know,just in case Sam gets Brewered on his first possession in the NC Championship against Bama. It could happen.

I want a backup with snaps/experience under his belt so that Sam, the real Sam, can be unleashed a la 2018.

Run that mf'er more.  I want to see him busting right up through the middle by design a lot more.

Sam is better at everything when he's allowed to use everything, but we need a viable Plan B for obvious reasons.

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I wish we could see what Casey could do with actual snaps. He's much quicker than Sam, but he never gets to build a rapport with the WR's. I think he could be really good. It just seems like we've seen all Sam can do, which is good, but I'm not sure he's going to reach Burrow-level even with Yurcich at the helm. 

"I'm not sure he's going to have one of, if not the most prolific and efficient single passing season(s) in the history of college football" is kind of a stretch for benching a QB don't you think?

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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I want a backup with snaps/experience under his belt so that Sam, the real Sam, can be unleashed a la 2018.
Run that mf'er more.  I want to see him busting right up through the middle by design a lot more.
Sam is better at everything when he's allowed to use everything, but we need a viable Plan B for obvious reasons.

Yup.
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12 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Now you’re just doubling down on your stupidity. Sam is a top ten QB in college football. You don’t bench a guy like that, ever. The coaches can see what Casey can do in practice, and it’s obvious he’s not better than Sam.

Casey’s not the “heir to the throne.” He’ll be one of multiple guys competing for the job next year. He was a flaws HS prospect and he’s still not that great of a passer. There’s a good chance a RS FR Card or JQJ beat him out or at least take ive effort him somewhere through the 2021 season. 

 

 

Serious question, did you post this from an iPhone?

Edited by ImissWallyPryor
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