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Sam Ehlinger

wild_turkey

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1 hour ago, Assman said:

Is my sarcasm meter broken or are you just retarded?

He’s right. Apparently some of you have already forgotten yesterday. OSU on the road versus Baylor at home?  We are not your typical #7 team, and with Shane we are not Top 25. I would predict a loss. 

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Treefidy

Treefidy 1463

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44 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

He’s right. Apparently some of you have already forgotten yesterday. OSU on the road versus Baylor at home?  We are not your typical #7 team, and with Shane we are not Top 25. I would predict a loss. 

It's painful to watch the read play where Shane stands frozen with the ball held at arms length for what feels like 5 seconds.   Also, he looks so gun shy in the pocket, quick to retreat out of the protection around him--backwards.  He's nowhere near the worst QB we have had but he's not a good fit for 1/2 of the offense we run and we aren't going to change our offense to suit him.

there was definitely a lot of rust built up and I have no doubt he would improve enough to win some of the games we have ahead of us if it came to that.  Some, not all.  With Sam starting to really grow into his role it feels like we could actually do the previously unthinkable and win out with ball protection and a little luck.  

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Assman said:

Is my sarcasm meter broken or are you just retarded?

Neither?

If you look at the statistics for the AP Top 10, we have the worst scoring offense and 2nd worst scoring defense.  To be fair, we've played a harder schedule (#12 SOS) than those teams with the exception of LSU (#6 SOS), using Sagarin's schedule strength data.  If we played Baylor this week, Sagarin predicts a 14 point home win -- which was the Vegas line.  He predicts a 4 point win at OSU.  Think what you want about Sagarin, I don't care, but let's acknowledge that his data are essentially based off Sam being the quarterback, with a little Shane mixed in.

NCAA Unit Rankings (Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense):

Alabama 1 7
Ohio State 6 24
Clemson 14 6
Notre Dame 47 22
LSU 51 17
Michigan 23 9
Texas 60 43
Georgia 20 12
Oklahoma 5 76
UCF 7 27

 

Oklahoma State 19 82

 

Nothing there screams "complete team" to me.  If you dare to combine those unit rankings, however faulty such an exercise might be, we're at the bottom, and it's not close.  The top 3 would be Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State, in that order.  Next would be Michigan.  We're in a dead heat with Oklahoma State.

Hopefully we'll never have to find out if I'm right or wrong, but trading Sam for Shane is a downgrade, no doubt about it.  Going into Stillwater for a night game with Shane taking the snaps?  Yeah, that's not a sure win, not by a long shot.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Walden Ponderer

Walden Ponderer 12639

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47 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Nothing there screams "complete team" to me.  If you dare to combine those unit rankings, however faulty such an exercise might be, we're at the bottom, and it's not close.  The top 3 would be Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State, in that order.  Next would be Michigan.  We're in a dead heat with Oklahoma State.

It's obviously better to be top tier in both, of course, but the main thing is to avoid the bottom tier. You can say we're in a dead heat with Oklahoma State, but that defense score for the pokes is atrocious, and it will more than likely be the deciding factor, Sam or no Sam. Meanwhile, I wonder if anybody has the adjusted PPG ranks? I doubt they'd be a lot different, but I'm pretty sure they would at least be a little different, in interesting ways.

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 20865

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7 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

It's obviously better to be top tier in both, of course, but the main thing is to avoid the bottom tier. You can say we're in a dead heat with Oklahoma State, but that defense score for the pokes is atrocious, and it will more than likely be the deciding factor, Sam or no Sam. Meanwhile, I wonder if anybody has the adjusted PPG ranks? I doubt they'd be a lot different, but I'm pretty sure they would at least be a little different, in interesting ways.

Adjusted Stats has us as 28th offensively in Points Per Possession (31st per play), and 29th defensively (25th per play).

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43263

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Posted

If asked, Shane will handle OSU and we will move on. I want Sam healthy for November.

Let's keep in mind this game is two weeks out. I think we looked a bit gassed against Baylor at times, especially when containing the edge or making tackles at the first level.

Let's get these boys rested up and send 'em to the dining hall and we'll see if Okie Lite can hang in the trenches for 60 minutes (surprise: I don't think they can).

 

As for "scoring defense" seems like that's a bit inflated due to playing a shootout with arguably the best offense in football. Outside of OU, we have only given up 20+ in one win: Tulsa.

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Is Baylor better or worse than OSU?

How many points is a road game worth versus a home game?

Did you see Shane Saturday?  Did you see him almost throw 2 more pics for 3 total?  Sure, he could improve (though only marginally); it could also get a lot worse. I’m serious: we could lose every remaining game with him starting. 

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9564

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13 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Is Baylor better or worse than OSU?

How many points is a road game worth versus a home game?

Did you see Shane Saturday?  Did you see him almost throw 2 more pics for 3 total?  Sure, he could improve (though only marginally); it could also get a lot worse. I’m serious: we could lose every remaining game with him starting. 

We could trot LJH out there at qb and still beat kansas. I love me some hyperbole, but come on man

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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18 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Adjusted Stats has us as 28th offensively in Points Per Possession (31st per play), and 29th defensively (25th per play).

 

Good to know.  How does the rest of the Top 10 stack up?  Link?

I still contend that we do not look like a clear Top 10 team, especially with Shane at QB.  I'll gladly take it, though.

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bluto

bluto 4889

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20 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Yep. Add in turnover margin and special teams and that's how you sneak into the top 10.

I don't think special teams is a strong suit of ours besides a stray firework here and there. Maybe the stats say otherwise but ST in my eyes is a glaring weakness on par with Locke at NB

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 20865

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Good to know.  How does the rest of the Top 10 stack up?  Link?

I still contend that we do not look like a clear Top 10 team, especially with Shane at QB.  I'll gladly take it, though.

I looked at a few other top 10 teams (Michigan / LSU) and I think they were top 10 in both.  Here is the link to the Texas page: http://www.adjustedstats.com/cfbteams.php?team=Texas

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Asithappens

Asithappens 974

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22 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Is Baylor better or worse than OSU?

How many points is a road game worth versus a home game?

Did you see Shane Saturday?  Did you see him almost throw 2 more pics for 3 total?  Sure, he could improve (though only marginally); it could also get a lot worse. I’m serious: we could lose every remaining game with him starting. 

It's possible that you may be correct. I don't think so, but who knows. 

My bigger question is if that's what you really think then why do you even bother being a Longhorn fan? 

Take the win.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I looked at a few other top 10 teams (Michigan / LSU) and I think they were top 10 in both. 

Thanks for the link.  Here are the Adjusted Points Per Possession rankings for the Top 10.  Texas is 2nd worst on offense and 3rd worst on defense (but well ahead of OU and UCF).  Looked at in the aggregate (which again is probably not valid) we're worse than all but UCF.

  Offense ADJ PPPoss Defense ADJ PPPoss
Alabama 2 4
Ohio State 4 23
Clemson 19 3
Notre Dame 33 12
LSU 9 7
Michigan 7 9
Texas 28 29
Georgia 3 11
Oklahoma 1 50
UCF 6 58
Edited by jimmyjazz
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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Posted (edited)

Another way to look at that is every team except ND and Texas has an elite (Top 10) offense OR defense, and ND gets mighty close with the #12 defense (adjusted points per possession).  Alabama, LSU, and Michigan are elite on both sides of the ball.  Georgia essentially is.  Texas is not even in the conversation on offense or defense, and those stats are largely based off Sam's efforts, not Shane's.  It only gets worse with Shane.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32699

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Posted

Here is that list with the difference in values:

Alabama, 3.06
Georgia, 2.39
Oklahoma, 2.25
LSU, 2.22
Michigan, 2.17
Ohio St., 2.06
Clemson, 2.02
Notre Dame, 1.50
Central Florida, 1.21
Texas, 1.16

I've been saying we're about a #15 team in terms of team strength and I do believe that. We're #23 in the nation in this metric.

 

 

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TexEx15

TexEx15 17467

Posted
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45 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Is Baylor better or worse than OSU?

How many points is a road game worth versus a home game?

Did you see Shane Saturday?  Did you see him almost throw 2 more pics for 3 total?  Sure, he could improve (though only marginally); it could also get a lot worse. I’m serious: we could lose every remaining game with him starting. 

Haha.  I negged him for this post only for him to go back a couple of pages to find a totally unrelated post of mine to neg.  

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53 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Haha.  I negged him for this post only for him to go back a couple of pages to find a totally unrelated post of mine to neg.  

Take the neg, pussy. 

14 minutes ago, Jack Burton said:

People forget that Shane has already lost to Kansas

People are morons, Ol’ Jack Burton. 

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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Neither?

If you look at the statistics for the AP Top 10, we have the worst scoring offense and 2nd worst scoring defense.  To be fair, we've played a harder schedule (#12 SOS) than those teams with the exception of LSU (#6 SOS), using Sagarin's schedule strength data.  If we played Baylor this week, Sagarin predicts a 14 point home win -- which was the Vegas line.  He predicts a 4 point win at OSU.  Think what you want about Sagarin, I don't care, but let's acknowledge that his data are essentially based off Sam being the quarterback, with a little Shane mixed in.

NCAA Unit Rankings (Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense):

Alabama 1 7
Ohio State 6 24
Clemson 14 6
Notre Dame 47 22
LSU 51 17
Michigan 23 9
Texas 60 43
Georgia 20 12
Oklahoma 5 76
UCF 7 27

 

Oklahoma State 19 82

 

Nothing there screams "complete team" to me.  If you dare to combine those unit rankings, however faulty such an exercise might be, we're at the bottom, and it's not close.  The top 3 would be Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State, in that order.  Next would be Michigan.  We're in a dead heat with Oklahoma State.

Hopefully we'll never have to find out if I'm right or wrong, but trading Sam for Shane is a downgrade, no doubt about it.  Going into Stillwater for a night game with Shane taking the snaps?  Yeah, that's not a sure win, not by a long shot.

You should watch the games instead of the statistics.

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WBT

WBT 20419

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’m serious: we could lose every remaining game with him starting. 

We could lose every game (except Kansas), period.  If I had to bet, I'd say 3 losses is most probable.  We're not going to keep winning every coin flip.

Edited by WBT
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Zavala

Zavala 1384

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I've been watching the games since 1982.  My eyes tell me this is not a top 10 team . . . yet.  With Shane?  No way.

Did you watch the LSU/Florida game? Did your eyes tell you LSU is a top 10 team? How about Notre Dame/Pitt?

Point is, all of the top 10 teams except Bama have looked suspect at times. Doesn't mean that none of them can be top 10 teams, because there can't be only 1 team in the top 10.

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A’Dam Psycho

A’Dam Psycho 1469

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13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm honestly not sure we'd beat Okie State with Shane taking the snaps.  I know everybody's pumped up that Texas is ranked in the top 10, etc. but the 'horns are nowhere near a complete team.  

QB - ✔️

RB - Solid

O-Line - Most improved position on the team

WR - Fuckin Beasts

D-Line - Spotty but has flashes

LB - Thin but starters have played well

DBs - Talented and only getting better

ST - Up & Down but haven’t been terrible

 

Saying we’re no where close is a tad bit disingenuous 

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Machinator

Machinator 32097

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

QB - ✔️

RB - Solid

O-Line - Most improved position on the team

WR - Fuckin Beasts

D-Line - Spotty but has flashes

LB - Thin but starters have played well

DBs - Talented and only getting better

ST - Up & Down but haven’t been terrible

 

Saying we’re no where close is a tad bit disingenuous 

I would flip your assessment of the LBs and D-line, but agree.

I also think that this is a weird year for CFB, so assessing what a "top 10" team is will be a tiresome exercise.

Edited by Machinator
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Did you watch the LSU/Florida game? Did your eyes tell you LSU is a top 10 team? How about Notre Dame/Pitt?

Point is, all of the top 10 teams except Bama have looked suspect at times. Doesn't mean that none of them can be top 10 teams, because there can't be only 1 team in the top 10.

I get that argument, and I've made it often in the past.  There have to be 10 teams in the top 10, and right now we're one of them.  Note that I never said we don't currently belong in the Top 10.  I said we aren't a complete team.  Our o-line is average, our secondary isn't exactly a shutdown unit, and our special teams are inconsistent.

I was cautioning that it's unwise to expect us to roll into Stillwater on a Saturday (pseudo-Halloween) night and blow out OSU, especially with Shane behind center.  I don't think that's unreasonable, but clearly others do.  I hope they're right.
 

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