2018 Houston Texans Season Thread

[henrygandorf 29229]

ok, so we haven't beaten a good team?  it's not like we've lost to good teams either.  if anything, this is a scheduling/parity issue.

lost to 9-3 pats on the road.  lost to 4-8 nyg at home.  lost to 6-6 tenn on the road.

beat 7-5 dallas at home.  beat 6-5 wash on the road.  beat 6-6 denver on the road.  beat 6-6 indy on the road.  blew out 6-6 miami at home.  blew out 6-6 tenn at home.  blowing out jax on the road seemed good at the time.  the last two teams i mentioned have blowout wins vs the pats this season.  dallas just beat the saints.  only kc and rams have won in denver, and the broncos have beaten chargers and steelers.  yeah, our resume isn't sparkling, but not much we can do about it.

 

on that note, let's take a trip to fantasyland for a minute, because i have time to kill.

let's say we win out and finish 13-3.  and let's say the pats do too (@pitt is toughest remaining), and the chiefs lose to the chargers at home, but beat baltimore and win @seattle.  so that makes us all 13-3.  i was curious, so i looked into the tie-breaker scenarios, which i found interesting.

presumably, the pats would be the 1 seed, since they're 2-0 vs us/kc.  that leaves just us to fight over the all important bye+homefield in round 2.

h2h - we didn't play.

division record - we lost to tenn.  they lost to lac.

conf record - we each have 1 conf, 1 non-conf, and 1 division loss.

common opponents (jax/den/cle/pats) and we'd both be 4-1 vs that group.

so if i'm doing this right, it would take us to a 5th tie-breaker, which is basically "strength of schedule", which is record vs teams beaten.  since they play the nfc west (and lost to the best team there) and we played the nfc east (and lost to the worst team there) i think we have a chance of coming out on top on this, although i haven't done the math yet on the whole schedule.

so basically, if you're looking for something to cheer for (other than just the top teams losing), cheer for them to lose to the chargers (if they sweep their division, we're definitely screwed) and cheer for teams we've beaten to win their games, because strangely enough, it may just come down to that.

of course, coming off the 6-0 loss, we'll probably lose to the colts this weekend at home by 3 scores.  until then...

[ztejas 44281]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

ok, so we haven't beaten a good team?  it's not like we've lost to good teams either.  if anything, this is a scheduling/parity issue.

lost to 9-3 pats on the road.  lost to 4-8 nyg at home.  lost to 6-6 tenn on the road.

beat 7-5 dallas at home.  beat 6-5 wash on the road.  beat 6-6 denver on the road.  beat 6-6 indy on the road.  blew out 6-6 miami at home.  blew out 6-6 tenn at home.  blowing out jax on the road seemed good at the time.  the last two teams i mentioned have blowout wins vs the pats this season.  dallas just beat the saints.  only kc and rams have won in denver, and the broncos have beaten chargers and steelers.  yeah, our resume isn't sparkling, but not much we can do about it.

 

on that note, let's take a trip to fantasyland for a minute, because i have time to kill.

let's say we win out and finish 13-3.  and let's say the pats do too (@pitt is toughest remaining), and the chiefs lose to the chargers at home, but beat baltimore and win @seattle.  so that makes us all 13-3.  i was curious, so i looked into the tie-breaker scenarios, which i found interesting.

presumably, the pats would be the 1 seed, since they're 2-0 vs us/kc.  that leaves just us to fight over the all important bye+homefield in round 2.

h2h - we didn't play.

division record - we lost to tenn.  they lost to lac.

conf record - we each have 1 conf, 1 non-conf, and 1 division loss.

common opponents (jax/den/cle/pats) and we'd both be 4-1 vs that group.

so if i'm doing this right, it would take us to a 5th tie-breaker, which is basically "strength of schedule", which is record vs teams beaten.  since they play the nfc west (and lost to the best team there) and we played the nfc east (and lost to the worst team there) i think we have a chance of coming out on top on this, although i haven't done the math yet on the whole schedule.

so basically, if you're looking for something to cheer for (other than just the top teams losing), cheer for them to lose to the chargers (if they sweep their division, we're definitely screwed) and cheer for teams we've beaten to win their games, because strangely enough, it may just come down to that.

of course, coming off the 6-0 loss, we'll probably lose to the colts this weekend at home by 3 scores.  until then...

Great write up.

But I'm not cheering for the Colts, Titans and Jags.

The NE game is looking awful important in hindsight. Not super thrilled to potentially play in Foxboro.

[Bert Orange 1174]

I used the playoff simulator per the above. It said Texans won the tiebreaker based on “common opponent win percentage”

[Murfdogg21 4574]

Anyone who has watched NFL for any period of time knows that every “great” team/coach/QB makes their bones off bad to mediocre teams and has an average (or sometimes below average) record against good teams. 

Go 6-0 or 5-1 against the bad teams on your schedule, go 6-0/5-1 against the decent teams, and hope for 2-2 against good opponents. Result is 12-4 or 13-3 record, maybe 14-2 if things fall your way. 

But if you look at Brady’s, Manning’s, Roethlesberger’s, etc. record against 12+ win teams, I’d guess they hover around 0.500, and those guys are the “great ones.” The argument that you didn’t have a winning record against good teams applies to them as much as teams like Houston. You are what your record says, and Houston is 9-3 even if against a weak strength of schedule. 

[mycox 587]

I'm not just looking at wins against bad teams, but how they won. Like HTown Horn said, don't count on any of these good teams to miss last second field goals or make dumb coaching decisions like Denver. An ugly overtime win against Indy, and a lucky pick 6 to win the game against a backup Buffalo QB to win the game. The Dallas game was ugly. You could argue that's how good teams win, but it more like the Texans are lucky they aren't .500

The Texans have actually looked like a good team the last three games, so we will see.

Edited December 4, 2018 by mycox

[ztejas 44281]

17 minutes ago, mycox said:

I'm not just looking at wins against bad teams, but how they won. Like HTown Horn said, don't count on any of these good teams to miss last second field goals or make dumb coaching decisions like Denver. An ugly overtime win against Indy, and a lucky pick 6 to win the game against a backup Buffalo QB to win the game. The Dallas game was ugly. You could argue that's how good teams win, but it more like the Texans are lucky they aren't .500

The Texans have actually looked like a good team the last three games, so we will see.

You have your blinders on if this is your take. All 3 of our losses were by 1 possession. 

I highly doubt our "expected" W/L is anything less than 8-4 - and like Murfdogg said, this is the NFL. You are generally (to stay away from an absolute) about what your record says you are.

The best team in NFL History could trip on their dicks and lose to a below .500 team if they don't game plan and show up to play. The NFL is about as hypercompetitive and unforgiving across the board as professional sports get.

[henrygandorf 29229]

39 minutes ago, mycox said:

I'm not just looking at wins against bad teams, but how they won. Like HTown Horn said, don't count on any of these good teams to miss last second field goals or make dumb coaching decisions like Denver. An ugly overtime win against Indy, and a lucky pick 6 to win the game against a backup Buffalo QB to win the game. The Dallas game was ugly. You could argue that's how good teams win, but it more like the Texans are lucky they aren't .500

The Texans have actually looked like a good team the last three games, so we will see.

i totally agree with everything you've said.  i would also offer that the texans looked about the same level of mediocre in games 1-6 of the season, which covers the losses + ugly wins vs indy/dallas/buffalo.  we saw some shitty coaching in those games from our opponents and ourselves.  we look like a totally different team in our last 6.

say what you want about records, but winning in denver and then in washington is no joke.  no previous texans teams would've pulled that off.

i don't think we'll go 13-3, but i think 12-4 is a real possibility.  considering how we played vs nyg/tenn g1, that's insane.

[mycox 587]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

You have your blinders on if this is your take. All 3 of our losses were by 1 possession. 

The Texans deserved to lose those pathetic three games.

Edited December 4, 2018 by mycox

[henrygandorf 29229]

deserve's got nothing to do with it.

[ztejas 44281]

3 minutes ago, mycox said:

The Texans deserved to lose those pathetic three games.

So we deserved our losses but not our wins? How does that work? We could just as easily have started 3-0 and dropped the next 3.

[mycox 587]

This is exactly what I was saying with the wins a few posts up. Should have lost at least three of those shitty played games.

I understand a few breaks here and there and some lucky wins, but not as many as this team has had. 

[HoustonFrog 368]

Y’all are going back and forth on games 1-6. Those are the games that have the least relevance on the team’s future.

Were the Texans a good team in first six games? Nope, they weren’t. Lucky to be 3-3.

Have they been good games 7-12, yep. Maybe not 6-0 good, but probably 5-1 good. And the last few games have been pretty great, which are the most important when evaluating a team. They are getting better week to week.... and should Coutee ever get healthy and Foreman contribute a little, things could really get rolling

I don’t think this team competes with NE or KC on the road, but it’s a deserving playoff team.

You add a 1st round OL, 2nd round CB, 3rd round OL, get Fuller, Foreman and Coutee fully healthy and I think the Texans compete for a title next year


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[HtownHorn 15231]

I don't think Foreman is going to play this year. They have to make that decision tomorrow, my guess, based on how Miller and Blue are running, he's going to stay on the PUP list. My biggest issue is the offense consistently shits all over itself inside the opponents 30 yard line. Penalties and sacks because of shitty play calls. That hasn't changed since game 1. The defense has gotten a shit ton better as everyone in the front 7 has gotten healthy and into game shape. Not too mention that the secondary has gotten better with the return of Hal and the Badger getting comfortable.

I agree with frog on the draft needs for next year.

[Fico 1806]

The offense is so hamstrung by the lack WR depth and the OL, it’s really amazing they are competitive at all.

If we can have Fuller healthy for a year, and the OL not be complete garbage the offense looks completely different.

[henrygandorf 29229]

watson, hopkins, watt, clowney are special players capable of big moments.  it's up to the rest of the team to put them in a position to do something big.  after watching deshaun play bama x2, i'm not gonna doubt him when a defining moment presents itself.  nobody in the afc looks unbeatable.

[mycox 587]

40 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Y’all are going back and forth on games 1-6. Those are the games that have the least relevance on the team’s future.

That's true. O'brien did a horrible job at getting this team prepared during the preseason.

[ztejas 44281]

12 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

watson, hopkins, watt, clowney are special players capable of big moments.  it's up to the rest of the team to put them in a position to do something big.  after watching deshaun play bama x2, i'm not gonna doubt him when a defining moment presents itself.  nobody in the afc looks unbeatable.

Just under that tier I would add Miller and Mathieu. Not superstars but Miller has shown he can be explosive at times and Mathieu is pound-for-pound one of the biggest ballers I've ever seen. (no Lavar)

To top it off J Reid is one of the best rookies in the NFL. 

We have the pieces to beat anyone - I just worry about the OLine and our ability to turn RZ trips into TDs. 

[HoustonFrog 368]

That's true. O'brien did a horrible job at getting this team prepared during the preseason.

I think he’s a pretty awful coach. I do give him credit for adapting the offense mid season to pound the ball and limit Watson getting destroyed.

Really need a WR to step up (Coutee or Thomas)


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[henrygandorf 29229]

5 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

 

I think he’s a pretty awful coach. I do give him credit for adapting the offense mid season to pound the ball and limit Watson getting destroyed.

Really need a WR to step up (Coutee or Thomas)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

those super predictable / horrible called qb runs vs dallas seemed to knock some sense into him.  watching sam and deshaun both run in their own ways reminds me that certain mobile qbs excel when there's a run called for them (sam) and others seem to excel when there's nobody open and the protection breaks down (deshaun). 

i know he takes a lot of sacks, as it's not really in his nature to throw the ball away (he's young, he'll learn), but he needs to not take shots while running.  that's how you break ribs and end up in a madden cruiser heading to jacksonville.  i've lived on a bus.  it gets old eventually.

[Fico 1806]

I don't think we will get Coutee back to an effective level this season.  I would IR him, and make sure he get 100% healthy for next season.  I think he should have been put on the PUP list after his hamstring injury in training camp, he rushed back and has no re-injured himself.  I don't see that healing fully this season. 

I think Foreman should be IR'ed as well.  He better take his rehab seriously this off-season or his career may be done before it fully began.

 

 

[ztejas 44281]

7 minutes ago, Fico said:

I don't think we will get Coutee back to an effective level this season.  I would IR him, and make sure he get 100% healthy for next season.  I think he should have been put on the PUP list after his hamstring injury in training camp, he rushed back and has no re-injured himself.  I don't see that healing fully this season. 

I think Foreman should be IR'ed as well.  He better take his rehab seriously this off-season or his career may be done before it fully began.

 

 

I mean we have dick to work with at wideout. Coutee at 85% is one of our better options.

I don't like this "let's get healthy for next year" mentality. It makes me worry. Nothing is a given in the NFL - I say we make a run while we've got a path to do it in front of us - and while our 3 best players are healthy and balling out.

If that means leaving Foreman inactive and trusting Miller and Blue then I'm for it. But I don't see enough depth at WR right now to not at least have Coutee on the 53 man.

We shall see. I trust our coaching staff and FO at a development and injury-management level. It's the ingame shit from BoB that makes me want to rip my hair out.

[mycox 587]

The running game has also looked pretty good the past 4 weeks. No need to rush Foreman back.

[Fico 1806]

17 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I mean we have dick to work with at wideout. Coutee at 85% is one of our better options.

I don't like this "let's get healthy for next year" mentality. It makes me worry. Nothing is a given in the NFL - I say we make a run while we've got a path to do it in front of us - and while our 3 best players are healthy and balling out.

If that means leaving Foreman inactive and trusting Miller and Blue then I'm for it. But I don't see enough depth at WR right now to not at least have Coutee on the 53 man.

We shall see. I trust our coaching staff and FO at a development and injury-management level. It's the ingame shit from BoB that makes me want to rip my hair out.

He can't stay healthy enough to play. 85% for 2 quarters doesn't help anyone.  A hamstring isn't something you can tough out, especially at WR.  Further, he could cause long-term damage to the muscle.  He is a waste of a roster spot right now.

We should look at Kelvin Benjamin or the other WR Buff just cut. I also think we need to carry another OL, there have been two games now where we were on our last reserve OL.

[Guest]

Foreman  activated from the PUP list today...

according to 97.5 FM. At 4:30 today

Edited December 4, 2018 by slorch

[ztejas 44281]

27 minutes ago, Fico said:

He can't stay healthy enough to play. 85% for 2 quarters doesn't help anyone.  A hamstring isn't something you can tough out, especially at WR.  Further, he could cause long-term damage to the muscle.  He is a waste of a roster spot right now.

We should look at Kelvin Benjamin or the other WR Buff just cut. I also think we need to carry another OL, there have been two games now where we were on our last reserve OL.

KB is an unmotivated fatass and the last thing we need is bringing guys into a hot locker room that have character concerns. I'd rather Coutee just sit the rest of the regular season and see if we can squeeze some production out of Vyncit Smith. 

No WR on the market is going to replace what we lost with Fuller out. 

[ztejas 44281]

7 minutes ago, slorch said:

Foreman  activated from the PUP list today...

Oh boy.... this better not be Foster 2.0. 

[henrygandorf 29229]

it looks like they want carter to fill the coutee role, besides his assistance on special teams.  i'm down to see what he can do.

with the offense we run, we'll continue to target te, so i'm fine not having a true slot/wr3.

[Fico 1806]

27 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it looks like they want carter to fill the coutee role, besides his assistance on special teams.  i'm down to see what he can do.

with the offense we run, we'll continue to target te, so i'm fine not having a true slot/wr3.

I think Carter is fine as well, and didn't mean to indicate that we should do anything to replace him, but we have really only been playing with 3 WRs.  We target the TE so much because we have too, and often we have 3 of them on the field. 

Not thrilled about the Foreman move, I doubt he is able to contribute and may end injuring himself long-term. I hope I am wrong on that front.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Carter looks like a difference maker at punt returner.  He is fast and shifty.  I noticed him immediately when he made the lineup. 

We have plenty of good receiving options. Thomas at Te needs more run.  

[BornOrange 1441]

5 hours ago, HoustonFrog said:

You add a 1st round OL, 2nd round CB, 3rd round OL, get Fuller, Foreman and Coutee fully healthy and I think the Texans compete for a title next year

Remember, the Texans also have Seattle's 2nd round pick as part of the Duane Brown trade.

[ztejas 44281]

From the resident fart smellers at 538

[ztejas 44281]

15 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Carter looks like a difference maker at punt returner.  He is fast and shifty.  I noticed him immediately when he made the lineup. 

We have plenty of good receiving options. Thomas at Te needs more run.  

Assuming you mean Jordan? If so I agree. Burgeoning star. 

[henrygandorf 29229]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

From the resident fart smellers at 538

sad thing is we can finish 3-1 (losing @philly let's say), end up 12-4, and still not really answer this question for most.

[Machinator 32103]

It's the product of playing a 4th place schedule with cross-division matchups against the NFC East and AFC East, for better and for worse.

[texashorne 1195]

keep the disrespect flowing. It can only help. 

[Gourmand 7778]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

It's the product of playing a 4th place schedule with cross-division matchups against the NFC East and AFC East, for better and for worse.

It's also about advanced metrics not making the case either way. 

9-3 is still 9-3 so I could care less about the projected power rankings or the idea that they are only a function of an easy schedule. The Pats, as dynastic as they've been throughout the Bradychick era, have feasted on a weak ass division. I'm not going to apologize for the Texans finally benefiting from a cake schedule. 

[TonyTexas 10785]

It's the product of playing a 4th place schedule with cross-division matchups against the NFC East and AFC East, for better and for worse.

The only division with more than 1 good team is the AFC West. League is very top heavy.

[Ignatius 4150]

On 12/4/2018 at 9:05 PM, BornOrange said:

Remember, the Texans also have Seattle's 2nd round pick as part of the Duane Brown trade.

...as well as just under $80MM in cap space if/when we cut Kevin Johnson’s always-injured ass.  Figure a good chunk of that gets eaten up by resigning Jackson, Mathieu, and (probably) Clowney, but will still be enough left to sign some help on the OLine...

[LongestHorn 772]

Fuck.  Hearing all manner of bad things with this infection.  He has been in the hospital since the game and he is not leaving any time soon.  

[totallynotabuttpirate 5492]

So much stupid that anyone would question whether the Texan's are a "good" team. It's abundantly clear to any non-regard that they are. Are they a great team? TBD, and if not, they're pretty close to it. 

[henrygandorf 29229]

17 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

So much stupid that anyone would question whether the Texan's are a "good" team. It's abundantly clear to any non-regard that they are. Are they a great team? TBD, and if not, they're pretty close to it. 

the confusion lies in how it came to be.  if we had beaten nyg and tenn, two highly winnable games, but lost @den and @wash or @indy, and were 9-3, i think we'd be considered a good team with a weak schedule.  now with a 9 game winning streak including some blowouts and coin-flip wins on the road, people don't really know what to make of us.  are we great?  are we good?  are we just hot?  are we getting lucky breaks? 

in an nfl season with a handful of great teams and a ton of middling teams, we just don't really have a clear classification.  i've seen us 5/6 in pretty much every power ranking, and i'm cool with that.  just keep winning, we should be favored in at least 3 of our remaining games.  

[Harrison Stafford 3392]

In my nightmares, I'm yelling at the opposing coach across the field, "Hey!  Why don't you just blitz the shit of us on every play?  With our OL, that's what I'd do."

[ztejas 44281]

All I know is that Deshaun Watson has a big brass pair of balls and he's bringing them to your stadium and dragging them across your team's face.

[Harrison Stafford 3392]

If you were an NFL QB, would you want your livelihood on the line every week taking snaps behind the Texans OL?  Hell, Deshaun has balls of steel.  

 

[WhatTheBuck 28940]

Duuude. 

[Bert Orange 1174]

Going for our (yawn) 10th in a row. Ho hum. Teams do this all the time. I wish we were a good team. 

[HtownHorn 15231]

I'm leaning towards really good, because for the 1st time as a franchise, the Texans go into almost every game with the best QB on the field. The only thing that gives me pause is the 41 sacks the OL has given up and the CB's are the 2nd worst position group on the team.

You fix those 2 issues and this team will be a juggernaut for as long as Watson is on his rookie deal.

[IDIOTsavant 8690]

20 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I'm leaning towards really good, because for the 1st time as a franchise, the Texans go into almost every game with the best QB on the field. The only thing that gives me pause is the 41 sacks the OL has given up and the CB's are the 2nd worst position group on the team.

You fix those 2 issues and this team will be a juggernaut for as long as Watson is on his rookie deal.

So 2 more years. After that, the 5th year option kicks in at the equivalent of the transition tag from a cap perspective.

[ztejas 44281]

Fuck the Colts.

[ztejas 44281]

Good challenge! There ya go Bill! There ya go!