Hey Oil Barons.......

[Archer 474]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Might rhyme with h-Exxon 

H-Exxon CEO said they wanted undeveloped average not PDP in the Delaware, I’m not sure Devon fits that description. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Exxon wouldn’t merge with Devon, they’d acquire Devon. Exxon is a major. It doesn’t merge. 

Devon would merge with someone like Marathon or Conoco 

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

Speaking of Oil Barons, Dallas seasons 2-14 are available on some app called IMDB Freedive. I'm watching it now. Highly recommended. 

I've heard about Jock's bad assery for years, it's nice to finally see it. 

[MAUFRAIS 6619]

I’d enjoy reading any shit talk about Parsley anybody wanted to post.

[Cody2422 270]

Any non op investors on here?  We are looking at a deal and trying to raise the funds to acquire, quick close, operated assets, ~200 bbls per day, easy low capital upside.  Buying on pdp only, PM me for more details and a CA if you are interested.  Timing is tight as we are trying to get capital commitment by May 31. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

7 hours ago, MAUFRAIS said:

I’d enjoy reading any shit talk about Parsley anybody wanted to post.

Why pray tell?

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

A couple companies I'd like more information on: COP and Encino Energy. 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

Any non op investors on here?  We are looking at a deal and trying to raise the funds to acquire, quick close, operated assets, ~200 bbls per day, easy low capital upside.  Buying on pdp only, PM me for more details and a CA if you are interested.  Timing is tight as we are trying to get capital commitment by May 31. 

Valuing PDP on PV12? Just curious.

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

23 hours ago, Archer said:

H-Exxon CEO said they wanted undeveloped average not PDP in the Delaware, I’m not sure Devon fits that description. 

Cross Cimarex, Diamondback, and Concho off the list. 

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

All of those companies have significant amounts of undeveloped acreage. 

Yeah, but it is enough for the XOM?

Shell buying Endeavor seems inevitable at this point. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by billfromlaketravis

[Neonmoon 38129]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

This downtick better be a blip. 

It's almost as if the price keeps getting trumped by something larger. 

[Armybrat 40822]

We were lucky that our Bakken crude sold for $59/bbl this month before the dip. Guess the royalty check will be a bit smaller next month..... if they actually cut one.

[BTW 370]

Baseless prediction time:

Pioneer and Parsley merge.  Daddy Sheffield just took the reigns back at Pioneer, but with the Jr. Sheffield out of the way at Parsley and dad having stepped aside, it looked like it was clearing the way for a merger that wouldn't be based wholly and completely on nepotism (even though that's exactly what it would be).  

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Eastwood 4394]

[Trey3216 15345]

Wheeeeeeeeeeeee

[Neonmoon 38129]

Remember when Oil prices were at $65 and everyone was happy and stable. Then Trump happened...again. I member 

[DCA_HORN 725]

We're back baby.

Five weeks ago.

[woohorn 1131]

IDK what this means for oil-down more?

[Neonmoon 38129]

Yes. Ethanol is cheaper to produce than gasoline 

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

21 hours ago, woohorn said:

IDK what this means for oil-down more?
 

Well f***. 

 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

Win for farmers 

[Guest Lobo]

Finally my business idea of corn-fracking will take off.  

You see, instead of planting corn vertically, we'll plant it horizontally.  

Edited June 2, 2019 by Lobo

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Win for farmers 

I guess given the circumstances MAGA had to give them something, but numerous studies have shown that 100% petroleum gasoline is better for your engine. 

[BLKNSTY 289]

Win for farmers 

more of a trade off for tanking ethanol credits during his presidency than anything else I’d say. the 2016 dip correlates to him winning the presidency and campaigning on the premise that he’d dismantle the whole ethanol credit program. the subsequent rally was the hope that Grassley/Ernst would reign him in - you can see how effective that was.

don’t see how it’ll create any appreciable more demand for ethanol though.

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

I'm more frustrated with the proposed coal and nuclear subsidies. You can't push "Freedom Gas" out of one side of your mouth and coal/nuclear subsidies out the other side. Either it's profitable or it's not. Don't prop up dying industries. If you need a back up for the grid, just throw a bunch of already produced coal in cave.

I'm an oil and gas guy, but I guess I'm cool with solar. It's not an eyesore and doesn't kill birds like wind. If we can figure out a way to not buy so many solar panels from China, it could be a good thing some day. I hate paying electric bills too. 

Edited June 2, 2019 by billfromlaketravis

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

y=-x^2+66

[Storm the Field 5294]

Freefall from $63 down to $51 in the span of only 2 weeks. Yeesh.

[Trey3216 15345]

4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Freefall from $63 down to $51 in the span of only 2 weeks. Yeesh.

Yep.  Got some stocks trading at 2 P/E right now.  Unreal how WTI and the stocks have been battered this last month.  

[Eastwood 4394]

I was thinking we found some support at $53. That's gone.

[Storm the Field 5294]

A 4th or 5th straight bad EIA report will tend to do that.

It's been over a month of "unexpected" builds.

[Trey3216 15345]

I haven't seen the refinery throughput for the last few weeks.  This looks like one of those crazy months long setups where the weekly reports are horribly skewed and we're on the precipice of a run of massive drawdowns because of refinery throughput variance.  

[BLKNSTY 289]

Yep.  Got some stocks trading at 2 P/E right now.  Unreal how WTI and the stocks have been battered this last month.  

carrizo at 1.75 and DNR at 2.2.

You gotta buy, right? Right? RIGHT?

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

The SPR dumping 3.8 million bbls in the last month hasn't helped things.

https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

[jimmyjazz 45888]

Apparently I should have sold my ESV prior to it dropping to $8 from my (post-split) $35 cost basis.  Kee-rist.  I gotta pay more attention.  That one was in the long term bucket.

[Trey3216 15345]

20 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Apparently I should have sold my ESV prior to it dropping to $8 from my (post-split) $35 cost basis.  Kee-rist.  I gotta pay more attention.  That one was in the long term bucket.

I had a bunch as well.   I sold it at about 15.75 post split after a lot of extreme volatility the days following the split.   Glad I did.   Not so happy about watching CHK trading in the $1.90’s again.   I’m at about 2.88 average on it.  Was there a mere 3 weeks ago 

[jimmyjazz 45888]

At some point these HAVE to be good buys on plays like ESV, though . . . right?

[Trey3216 15345]

10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

At some point these HAVE to be good buys on plays like ESV, though . . . right?

Im at a loss, literally and figuratively.   I’d like to think so   But fuck.   It’s a never ending shit show.  

[jimmyjazz 45888]

Just now, Dr. Beeper said:

What is the allure of a relatively small British offshore producer?

Just the offshore play going forward.

[DCA_HORN 725]

What is the allure of a relatively small British offshore producer?

Well it's a driller not producer but yeah that's not a great market going forward.

[DCA_HORN 725]

Anyone have any Mid-Cush basis forecast insight now that that has calmed down?

It's pretty much back to par.

[sunset87 240]

Anyone know anything about CGS Operating, LLC.  Appears to be a brokerage bunch out of Decatur or possibly Tyler.  They are leasing a large block of acreage in far northern Midland Basin in an area that I foolishly thought was out of the unconventional plays.  I'm curious who they are leasing for.  Looks like they just busted up a small conventional drilling deal we were in the process of putting together. Lovely...

[The Royal We 3067]

I'm seeing pain everywhere from my clients, especially in OK and GOM shelf/state waters.  If we go into a recession and commodity prices continue to fall it's going to be a f'n bloodbath.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

30 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I'm seeing pain everywhere from my clients, especially in OK and GOM shelf/state waters.  If we go into a recession and commodity prices continue to fall it's going to be a f'n bloodbath.

Correct 

there’s a shit ton of petro chem / refinery / lng expansion in the pipeline and China is the main market 

[Trey3216 15345]

I think commodities could actually be the lead into a recession this go round 

[The Royal We 3067]

I've been through a few cycles but this one feels different because of all the changes to the PE model in the E&P space.  In past slowdowns there seemed to always be a pile of PE money that was ready to jump in and scoop up deals at depressed prices.  But those off-ramps are few and far between - especially in the water.  There's going to be a lot of junk that ends up in the state's lap for both LA and TX.  It's depressing to think about how many abandoned well bores and facilities are going to be left out there with no operator and no state funds available to P&A/decommission.

[Eastwood 4394]

30 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I've been through a few cycles but this one feels different because of all the changes to the PE model in the E&P space.  In past slowdowns there seemed to always be a pile of PE money that was ready to jump in and scoop up deals at depressed prices.  But those off-ramps are few and far between - especially in the water.  There's going to be a lot of junk that ends up in the state's lap for both LA and TX.  It's depressing to think about how many abandoned well bores and facilities are going to be left out there with no operator and no state funds available to P&A/decommission.

Well, we are relatively fresh off the last downturn. Everyone who kept their powder dry in '14 and '15 unloaded it all in '16 and '17. I'd be surprised if there was much capital left for M&A in the event of another downturn so quickly after the last one.

[The Royal We 3067]

Great point.  I do think there is still a decent amount of dry powder in the PE funds, but the lack of available exit strategies has them gun shy.  They are going to have to actually build sustainable operating companies instead of drilling a couple dozen wells and flipping it out to someone else.

[Archer 474]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m bullish on buying conventional PDP because of the valuations (PV15-18). To The Royal We’s point, I wouldn’t be doing it to flip. I’d be building a small operating company. 

There are assets that cash flow available for 2.5x, 3.0x cash flow. That intrigues me. I’m concerned about price, but, would hedge the hell out of my volume. Y’all poke holes in the strategy. 

My biggest concern as a small operator would be regulatory changes after 2020 on fugitive methane emissions causing expensive retrofits on existing facilities. 

[Archer 474]

30 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m looking at a deal now - about to make offer - that literally produces no gas. 

How volatile is the oil? I see more problems with flash off the Oil tanks than from produced gas.