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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DCA_HORN said:

Yeah I'll take the under. There a lot of zombie companies out there that even $75 oil won't fix. I dont think we were ever much over 11 million a day.

Didn't help that Goldman was reporting estimates of 13mm/day, etc.  However, you can always count on Goldman to say stuff like that just so their clients can scoop up everything in a sector for dirt cheap when smaller investors capitulate.  Starting to see some of that, hopefully.  

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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Didn't help that Goldman was reporting estimates of 13mm/day, etc.  However, you can always count on Goldman to say stuff like that just so their clients can scoop up everything in a sector for dirt cheap when smaller investors capitulate.  Starting to see some of that, hopefully.  
Well they also said oil was going to $200...
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tequila

tequila 317

Posted
Posted
33% is a BIG number. CXO not looking good at the opening bell today.


CXO:
Christ.... that wasn’t that bad of a miss. They’re now trading at $17,500ish an acre. Thought they’d be the last Permian domino to fall, but with today’s movement you’d think they’d have a huge buyout bullseye on their chest.


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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

Posted
Posted
On 7/31/2019 at 9:33 AM, Trey3216 said:
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -8.5M barrels vs. -2.6M consensus, -10.8M last week.
  • Gasoline -1.8M barrels vs. -1.5M consensus, -0.2M last week.
  • Distillates -0.9M barrels vs. +1.0M consensus, +0.6M last week.
  • Futures +0.59% to $58.39.

API also reported a -1.3 (I think that was the number) draw from SPR last week as well.  Production is falling, demand is still pretty damn strong.  Gonna be interesting times folks.  

 

Now pointing to a pretty healthy storage deficit 

 

Might be the one, true thing that could save a bunch of the small E&P's.  

Too bad we don't have a way of monitoring global supply/inventory

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/millions-of-barrels-of-iranian-crude-are-sitting-in-chinese-ports.html

  • Estimates as to the volume of Iranian crude that’s made its way to China between last January and May vary from 12 million to 14 million barrels.
  • China keeps the crude in “bonded storage,” which means the oil has not been cleared through Chinese customs and is not being used, therefore not yet violating U.S. sanctions
  • Oil could fall by $5 to $7 a barrel if China were to draw down on these stored volumes, one expert told CNBC.
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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

If China starts buying Iranian crude in this trade war, price of oil would crash and could drop to 30 dollars a barrel:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/brent-and-wti-price-could-crash-if-china-buys-iranian-oil.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Everyone who bought into the Permian would be absolutely gutted 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
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EIA: Crude -10,027k Bbl, Median Est. -2,850

EIA inventory report also shows these changes for last week:

Gasoline -2,090k vs est. -400k

PADD 1B gasoline -26k

Distillates -2,063k vs est. +1,400k

PADD 1 Distillates -731k

Cushing crude -1,980k

PADD 3 crude -1,154k

Refinery utilization -0.7ppt vs est. -0.5ppt

Refinery crude inputs -294k b/d

Crude imports -1,290k b/d

Crude production +200k b/d

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Hate

Hate 20107

Posted
Posted

I would say they are overblown. The economy on Houston has diversified quite a bit into other areas such as healthcare. Also, when we do finally make the transition to green energy, do you really think it will come from anyone other than the energy leaders? ExxonMobile will buy up any green company that can start to become profitable.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
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31 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Question for the oil barons. Is the city of Houston at risk for a long slow decline (similar to Detroit but different) because of the international moves away from oil over the next ten years (electric cars, solar power, etc)? Or, are those fears overblown?

Yes and no. Most big oil and gas companies are transitioning to Energy companies, some faster than others. They are buying wind and solar companies or developing the technology themselves. The transition from fossil fuels to renewables will not happen overnight, but it will happen. Some project 2050, some earlier, some later. It really depends on battery storage technology. 

What will hurt Houston is the decline in oil field service companies. All the pipe companies, wastewater companies, sand companies, trucking companies, etc. that will slowly fold without business. Not to mention Digitalization. Even with companies still producing oil and gas, more jobs will be lost from automation and AI. More people will work remotely. Will energy companies really need to be located in Houston?

Houston has the port, and the medical industry, so it should be able to adapt. However, as the oil and gas industry shrinks from digitalization, automation, AI, and transition to renewables. It will negatively impact Houston, mainly in the real estate sector. I don’t think it will be a Detroit type situation.

 

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13509

Posted
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A relative of mine recently saw the monthly oil royalties from a well near Crystal City jump by 30x. As far as he can tell it's related to the well being re-fracked. What would the expectation be in terms of sliding back to the previous levels?  Is there a rule of thumb for Austin Chalk wells, or are there too many variables? 

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Coyote

Coyote 269

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

A relative of mine recently saw the monthly oil royalties from a well near Crystal City jump by 30x. As far as he can tell it's related to the well being re-fracked. What would the expectation be in terms of sliding back to the previous levels?  Is there a rule of thumb for Austin Chalk wells, or are there too many variables? 

I'm not as familiar with the Austin Chalk but out in the permian this happens fairly regularly due to frac hits. An offset new-drill will connect with an existing producer during completions operations. Often times this just waters out the well but we've seen oil production on a number of wells jump 20-50x. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
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EQT lays off 196 employees, or 23% of workforce

https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2019/09/10/eqt-confirms-tuesdays-layoffs-cut-196-jobs.html

 

Quote

EQT Corp. late Tuesday afternoon confirmed that 196 employees were laid off — 23 percent of the Pittsburgh-based natural gas driller's workforce.

In a statement, the company provided more details about the cuts, which it said will save about $50 million in annual general and administrative expenses. EQT (NYSE: EQT), the largest independent natural gas producer in the United States, went through an historic proxy battle and nearly complete board changeover at July's annual meeting that led to the installation of Toby Z. Rice as CEO.

The workforce reductions follow a flurry of changes at EQT, with a number of former Rice Energy employees taking over top spots at the company. All but one of the top managers in EQT's previous management team have left the company. The latest was Jimmi Sue Smith, the CFO, who left late last month. There's an interim CFO while the company looks for a permanent replacement.

Rice in a memo to employees Tuesday said the layoffs were "a difficult but necessary step" for EQT.

The restructuring also includes cutting down on the number of departments and management structure, and refocusing EQT on its primary mission of drilling and producing natural gas.

"Today's action represents another significant milestone as we transform EQT into a modern, technology-driven and efficient natural gas producer," Rice said in a statement.

 

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Cajun

Cajun 11705

Posted
Posted

Got an email from XTO this morning.  "Dear Cajun, we have funds in suspense for you but need to have proof that you're over 32 years old".  Apparently, this suspense has been accumulating for years from wells that are over 14 yrs old.

I have other $s coming in from other wells just fine.  Direct deposit.  They have my bank account, my email, my phone number, everything.

I'm 52 fucking years old and they just now thought to reach out to me.

I mean, on one hand I'm ecstatic because, hey, Daddy needs a new pair of shoes, but holy fucking incompetence Batman!

XTO...

sigh

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Cajun said:

Got an email from XTO this morning.  "Dear Cajun, we have funds in suspense for you but need to have proof that you're over 32 years old".  Apparently, this suspense has been accumulating for years from wells that are over 14 yrs old.

I have other $s coming in from other wells just fine.  Direct deposit.  They have my bank account, my email, my phone number, everything.

I'm 52 fucking years old and they just now thought to reach out to me.

I mean, on one hand I'm ecstatic because, hey, Daddy needs a new pair of shoes, but holy fucking incompetence Batman!

XTO...

sigh

Dear XTO,

I've been waiting in suspense for said funds for over 14 years.  The cashier's check can be mailed to:

 

1st National Bank of Cajun

1 Cajun $$ Way 


Thanks for remembering me!!

 

Cajun 

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Cajun

Cajun 11705

Posted
Posted
On 9/11/2019 at 1:23 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

A lot of variables on austin chalk. Has this relative owned a royalty interest in a set of wells and is he/she able to read check stubs?  I ask seriously because they can be confusing to read. If a check jumps 30x, my first thought is the operator has drilled a new well entirely and took its time to put the well in pay with respect to royalty owners. Typically that is 6 months. And so that one check would show 6 months of flush production. And I’m not sure if it’s a re-entry if the same in-pay status lag exists. 

This.

Happens all the time in Eagle Ford.

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