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936horn

By 936horn
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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
 

Well, no shit but what does Matt suggest the White House so about it? Start a war? Nuke Russia, Iran, and throw in Iraq while we are there? There was already a glut and now we are in unprecedented times with the Wuhan Corona virus. I don’t know exactly what he expects the WH to do. It’s a stupid fucking tweet.

**not aimed at MBU
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hate said:


Well, no shit but what does Matt suggest the White House so about it? Start a war? Nuke Russia, Iran, and throw in Iraq while we are there? There was already a glut and now we are in unprecedented times with the Wuhan Corona virus. I don’t know exactly what he expects the WH to do. It’s a stupid fucking tweet.

**not aimed at MBU

I’m almost at the point that someone is going to go to war over this situation.   Don’t know who/when, but it’s going to happen.  Perhaps this is when Iran/KSA stop playing proxy war and just go full throttle??  No doubt tensions will be at all time highs between Japan/SK and China.  US/China relations were already in hilarity sequence, perhaps we go plaid.  

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MAROON

MAROON 445

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Lobwedgephil said:

https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/coronavirus-energy-guide

 

does anyone know anything about the author?  I did a cursory review on the world wide web and didn't see any overly negative information about him.  Read the article and nothing grossly out of place jumped out either.  It's freaking depressing.

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

Posted
Posted

There's a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse... and everybody in the village says, "how wonderful. The boy got a horse" And the Zen master says, "we'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, "How terrible." And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight... except the boy can't cause his legs all messed up. and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful."

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Parliament

Parliament 14255

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m almost at the point that someone is going to go to war over this situation.   Don’t know who/when, but it’s going to happen.  Perhaps this is when Iran/KSA stop playing proxy war and just go full throttle??  No doubt tensions will be at all time highs between Japan/SK and China.  US/China relations were already in hilarity sequence, perhaps we go plaid.  

WSJ Op ed this morning said something like, "Without American support, Saudi Arabia would be an Iranian province."  Salty there.  I imagine the Iranians will wait a bit.  If SA continues to flood the World with oil, they'll look for the US to be less committal to their defense.  And be emboldened.  As sad as it is, even with all the weapons and training we've given SA, Iran might be favored in that fight?  

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Did anyone see any reports how that oil CEO meeting with trump went today? 

The way everything is working, right now, it could have gone horribly and we'd see another 10% gained on Monday. Or it could have gone amazingly and oil drops into the teens.

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Lobwedgephil

Lobwedgephil 1139

Posted
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30 minutes ago, MAROON said:

does anyone know anything about the author?  I did a cursory review on the world wide web and didn't see any overly negative information about him.  Read the article and nothing grossly out of place jumped out either.  It's freaking depressing.

He write some really great geopolitical books. Best known for The Accidental Super Power. Amazon has his books and more about him. 

https://www.amazon.com/Peter-Zeihan/e/B00MPX86VK%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Parliament said:

WSJ Op ed this morning said something like, "Without American support, Saudi Arabia would be an Iranian province."  Salty there.  I imagine the Iranians will wait a bit.  If SA continues to flood the World with oil, they'll look for the US to be less committal to their defense.  And be emboldened.  As sad as it is, even with all the weapons and training we've given SA, Iran might be favored in that fight?  

It could moreso turn into a Sunni/Shia war given the climate 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Parliament said:
2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:
It could moreso turn into a Sunni/Shia war given the climate 

And would we care? How would it blow back on us?

I was merely saying that it would pull Iraq, Egypt and other nations into the fold.  Would cause an all out ME war.  Should we care?  Prolly not. Will we?  In some manner. 

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ryskey

ryskey 447

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Marshall Adkins, notorious bull, thinks we’ll be at $10 for 3-4 months. He thinks none of the measures contemplated can realistically occur. @Trey3216@ryskeyinterested in your thoughts. 

This week has felt like a month. It became apparent to me that producers in Texas were going to have downstream issues a few weeks ago, and those concerns were realized in calls last week and Sheffield’s CNBC commentary. Now, it’s a damned crisis. The attempted measures by Trump and Hamm seem desperate and not doable. The $8 bump is nice, but to me it’s noise that’s obfuscating real fundamental issues that won’t get better any time soon, absent coordination and sacrifice never seen on a global scale. I don’t agree with Adkins that we are staying at $10 for 3-4 months. 

Yes $10/bbl possible but not for 3-4 months.  We are getting production cuts one way or another.  Proration would have been more measured and steady, running out of storage is going to be violent and ugly.  Anyway, shut-ins will inevitably overshoot what is necessary to balance the market, and price should recover pretty quickly.

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sunset87

sunset87 240

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, MAROON said:

does anyone know anything about the author?  I did a cursory review on the world wide web and didn't see any overly negative information about him.  Read the article and nothing grossly out of place jumped out either.  It's freaking depressing.

I’m not sure I agree with his statement about lifting costs for shale wells being minuscule. Relative to offshore maybe, but submersibles are not cheap to run. Operating expenses are quite a bit higher than your average domestic onshore well, simply because of the complexity and nature of horizontal wells.

There will be a quick ramp up, whenever that occurs, because of the stock pile of DUCs.

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52-80

52-80 19150

Posted
Posted

per bloomberg

 

Norway, the biggest oil producer in western Europe, said it would consider cutting its output if there was a broad international agreement to curb supply.

 
 

The Nordic nation, whose oil output is set to grow over the next few years, hasn’t been a part of coordinated international cuts to support prices since 2002. OPEC and other producing nations are due to meet next week to discuss a potential agreement, with Saudi Arabia and Russia indicating other producers needed to join for any deal to be reached.

 
 

Read: OPEC+ Meeting Delayed on New Saudi, Russia Rift

 
 

“We have a dialog with key stakeholders, including other producing countries,” Petroleum and Energy Minister Tina Bru said in an email. “If a broad group of producers agree to cut production significantly, Norway will consider a unilateral cut if it supports our resource management and our economy.”

 
 

Norway’s willingness to cut its production underscores how painful the recent collapse in crude has been for all producers. The disintegration of the OPEC+ agreement last month has led to a surge in supply at the same time as the coronavirus pandemic decimated demand. Benchmark Brent dropped to 18-year lows this week before paring some of its losses when news of a potential new agreement emerged.

“Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the current situation in the oil market is challenging,” Bru said. “The ministry is following the market development closely.”

Norway produced 1.75 million barrels a day of crude in February, less than 2% of global supplies.

 

 

of course, theyre somewhere behind mexico in production so just a drop of an oil in the barrel

 

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17029

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

Are we currently filling the strategic reserve?

We were going to, but it hasn't happened yet.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/491111-oil-giants-meet-at-white-house-amid-talk-of-buying-strategic

Spoiler

 

The meeting appeared to renew administration efforts to fill the nation’s oil reserves after the initial $3 billion request was left out of the coronavirus package.

“At these prices you’d think we’d want to fill up every cavity,” Trump told the lawmakers and oil executives present at the meeting, a reference to the 77 million gallons of space in the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

...Meanwhile the Department of Energy has looked for other ways to fill the petroleum reserve, offering to rent space to oil producers that are running out of storage space for their goods — a service the government would be paid for in oil. 

Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said Friday they would buy oil through an “alternative financing mechanism” but provided no additional details.

Lawmakers at the meeting echoed interest in filling the petroleum reserve, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) calling it “inexcusable” that Democrats opposed the measure's inclusion in the coronavirus stimulus package.

“Now I think Congress needs to go back and address it,” he said.

Trump likewise encouraged new legislation on the effort, saying, “I don’t think anyone can reject it.” 

Democrats have consistently resisted efforts to boost the oil industry, including through oil purchases. 

 

 

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Archer

Archer 474

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hate said:

Why wouldn't we fill it while prices are unbelievably low.  Seems stupid.

Politics. Gotta stick it to big oil...
 

“Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a letter to senators Wednesday Democrats had eliminated from the legislation a, “$3 billion bailout for big oil.”

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
Posted

Leaving politics out of it...filling up the strategic reserve at the lowest price in 20 years is a smart and prudent action. I hate when politics get in the way of good ideas. 

Now the American people will either have to to pay 2 or 3 times the amount at some point in the future, or America will again be unprepared. Just pure stupidity around

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

64 rigs laid down last week. Down to 662, which is 400 below the count year ago.

Still a ways to go to reach the all-time lows (~400) that we were seeing during the summer of 2016, but I imagine we'll get there soon.

Could get close by the end of the month.  

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Leaving politics out of it...filling up the strategic reserve at the lowest price in 20 years is a smart and prudent action. I hate when politics get in the way of good ideas. 

Now the American people will either have to to pay 2 or 3 times the amount at some point in the future, or America will again be unprepared. Just pure stupidity around

We've got 77M barrels of open space, so it's a rather immaterial amount, we might be able to save a couple billion if we filled it up now, which is about the yearly budget for post-it notes. 

I think people are getting too lost in the OPEC fight and the SPR decisions. They really don't matter in the grand scheme. COVID is the only thing that matters. As long as the world is locked down, everybody in oil and gas (outside of some traders) are going to be way upside down. Saudi/Russia could cut 10Mb/d at the same time the USA fills up the SPR and 70%-80% of all publicly traded energy companies will still go BK in the next 12 months as long as the world is not flying or driving. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Why?  Could we still possibly be unwinding the long crude/short NG trade?

The forthcoming massive slowdown in oil production is being reflected, and gas demand has stayed relatively stable (even during the SiP).   Hell, I went to my office for about two hours today to scan some paperwork and the building was still being kept temp constant as if it were fully operational.   

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

With oil production you mean the slowdown of associated gas?

And your gas demand being intact comment makes sense. It may even be up in southern states. Businesses in the south and likely a lot all over the country still running full electricity, and NG may be powering increased electricity usage in homes right now. 

Associated gas production is going to drop quite a bit, yes.  As cheap as gas is right now, power generation usage is very high.  Many businesses are still running electricity even with little to no one there.  (My office is in a bank ‘tower’, the building is cooled/heated even if not everyone is there).  We could theoretically have mostly static gas demand with 15-25% lower production, maybe more. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

So static without an increase, but a significant decline in production. Interesting. Could continue to be good for gas, maybe even huge. People forget it’s very much a regional commodity, even within the States, versus being at the whims of global consumption and production like crude. 

It’s becoming a much more ‘metered’ commodity across the country, even if people don’t realize it or use it at home. Power generation via natural gas at these levels is going to be epic.  

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12395

Posted
Posted

This is like a horror film - something is around the corner and you know it's going to be bad.  The passage below is consistent from what I heard today from someone high up in a major oil and gas company - that in May & June, it's going to get "very, very bad."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/opinion-hollywood-couldnt-script-a-plotline-like-whats-happening-in-oil-right-now.html

Will all this save many U.S. producers?

Short answer: no.  

Longer answer: Cuts could delay the worst of the pain for a few months as we all hope and pray for rapid economic rebirth.  

Global oil demand is now down somewhere between 20 to 30 million barrels per day.  So even a 10 million barrel per day cut - which once would’ve been unthinkable - isn’t a panacea.  However, it does slow the pain. More importantly, it slows the fill.  

Global oil storage is near capacity everywhere.  Aggregating most research I’ve seen, at the current pace of oversupply every oil tank, pipeline, supertanker and bathtub will be full by mid to late May.  If that happens, oil prices could go negative in parts of the country. Yes, oil producers would pay you to take their oil, since they have no place to put it.  

The industry is in freefall. The average return on an oil and gas stock this year is -65%.  Many are down 80%, 90%, nearly wiped out. Whiting Petroleum filed for bankruptcy. Hundreds more chapter 11s are coming unless oil moves higher, quickly. Tens or even hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk in Texas, North Dakota and elsewhere.  

The global stakes have never been higher, and it will all play out over the next couple of days.

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JimmyTwoTimes

JimmyTwoTimes 79

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

So static without an increase, but a significant decline in production. Interesting. Could continue to be good for gas, maybe even huge. People forget it’s very much a regional commodity, even within the States, versus being at the whims of global consumption and production like crude. 

NG is very much a global commodity, we export 8+ bcf/d at this point. And to discount the amount of LNG turnback due to global demand destruction, which is very real and was an issue even before the virus, could be very painful if you want to own the front end of the gas curve via some simple jack etf like UNG. Even the deferred contracts are becoming crowded, thanks to research being put out by the likes of Gold Man Sacks. I’m all for the bull story but it isn’t time to jump in now imo.

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