Jump to content

Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

JimmyTwoTimes

JimmyTwoTimes 79

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

It’s not global, not even close to crude.  We produce 100 Bcfd. I’m not bullish on gas except I think it’s interesting NG hasn’t really moved much and is starting to come up. We still have entirely to much has in this country, and that’s not stopping any time soon. 

To classify NG as a regional or domestic commodity in 2020 is inaccurate. We require exports to balance supply/demand given current close to record high levels of production. That makes it global. Look at ng versus nbp/ttf/jkm  on a chart. 

I don’t think we are disagreeing with each other except for that point.

As for price...we’ve held multi year lows, which I guess is supportive. Balances in the near term, however, are a train wreck. Burns from power generation will have to remain at all time highs to keep the bottom in. Tough ask in the current state of affairs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 6.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

Posted Images

Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

It’s not global, not even close to crude.  We produce 100 Bcfd. I’m not bullish on gas except I think it’s interesting NG hasn’t really moved much and is starting to come up. We still have entirely to much has in this country, and that’s not stopping any time soon. 

Our production is actually down to about 92.5/bn cfd as of recent.  We may drop to 80 in the coming months.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10232

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Look at historical prices in Europe versus US - and even today. I disagree it’s global. It’s trending in that direction but not there yet. 

Good. I presume this is the associated gas drop you’re anticipating. At $1.75 and trending upward, I don’t see an Appalachian slowdown. 

When shale drilling stops, doesn't majority of NG production go away? I would assume NG prices could see big jump soon.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
JimmyTwoTimes

JimmyTwoTimes 79

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Look at historical prices in Europe versus US - and even today. I disagree it’s global. It’s trending in that direction but not there yet. 

Good. I presume this is the associated gas drop you’re anticipating. At $1.75 and trending upward, I don’t see an Appalachian slowdown. 

Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk?

As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JimmyTwoTimes

JimmyTwoTimes 79

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What was gas in Europe about a year ago?  $6?  Of course there’s a correlation. If it’s a true global commodity, there’s gonna be a few benchmarks within 10% of one another. When the LNG market is greater than 10% of production, you’ll have a better argument. 

I guess we are just arguing semantics of a “global commodity”. My view is that it is, now. PSA... running into producer hedging in 2021 at 2.50+... those lots will find their way to the front of the market at some point soon. Happy Gas Trading and good evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76902

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Another 3500? Or the same ones that had been announced a week or two ago? 
 

they had previously announced 3500 furloughs on March 18th. Just curious if there are more. 


https://www.rigzone.com/news/halliburton_to_furlough_3500_workers_in_houston-19-mar-2020-161430-article/

 

it's the same group. not sure why the houston news had it at the top their page 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10232

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, JimmyTwoTimes said:

Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk?

As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd. 

 

 

Without an oil correction I don't know how production doesn't drop under 80 this summer. We will switch from an NG exporter in an importer in short order.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Associated gas is about 12% of this country’s nat gas production. Maybe 15%. Can’t find a recent figure. We are not dropping to 80 this summer or likely at all. 

 

34 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’ve read it’s upward of 40% 

 

27 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No more than 20%. 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41873

 

12% per EIA (from 2018 though)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BTW

BTW 370

Posted
Posted

Another week another 15+MM build in inventories.  This all seems to be priced in as we're still up >3%.  I'm still short oil, as this rally seems to be artificial, maybe people unwinding short positions?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rip76

Rip76 4925

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Well fuck. The perfect storm we are in has now affected me. Just got the world that after next week the project is reducing everyone (well, most everyone’s) hours per week to 30. Yeah, I still have a job, but my gut feeling is this project gets mothballed.

Houston?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sandman

Sandman 3403

Posted
Posted
On 4/7/2020 at 5:20 AM, Johnny Chimpo said:

Yes, my father had a 40 year career with HAL. Not sure how he did it, just tough and smart enough to escape the chopping block umpteen times best I can tell. Anyways, those service companies don’t wait to make deep cuts. 

I was driving through El Reno, OK over the weekend and saw what appeared to be a brand new, very modern looking Haliburton building with a "for sale" sign out front. The place looked like it had never been used. Then I saw the gas stations offering .99/gal. Tough times around here for sure.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Goofyboy

Goofyboy 3276

Posted
Posted
Well fuck. The perfect storm we are in has now affected me. Just got the world that after next week the project is reducing everyone (well, most everyone’s) hours per week to 30. Yeah, I still have a job, but my gut feeling is this project gets mothballed.

Damn... I get minutes for FEED projects. Good luck man. I hope you land on your feet.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...