Hey Oil Barons.......

[Neonmoon 38129]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

So the US is not committed to purposely cutting production? Just acknowledging the reality we will because of economics?

The US is the only country in the world with private mineral ownership. The US government does not control production and thus cannot force cuts. 

[tx 3 putt 76876]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The US is the only country in the world with private mineral ownership. The US government does not control production and thus cannot force cuts. 

Let them starve themselves / cut their own throats. All we can do 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

When does storage run out for these producers? Saudi leased 20 plus VLCCs but given the oversupply lasting I don’t see what alternative there is to cutting even further.  
 
By the way this is a free market now that OPEC has lost its clout.

https://mobile.twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1248592902957273088

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

And now my project was canceled and I likely will be unemployed by the end of the week. Fun times. Fuck O&G.

[Eastwood 4394]

30 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

And now my project was canceled and I likely will be unemployed by the end of the week. Fun times. Fuck O&G.

Hang in there. We've been here before back in 2016.

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Hang in there. We've been here before back in 2016.

This is my second career, but I fortunately survived 2008 and 2016. My luck ran out it seems.

[nycHorn 2998]

1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m to sorry to hear that. When you say second career what do you mean?

He was a bouncer at the Double Deuce.  Cool spot, great looking 1980's women.

[fattyflattie 4639]

38 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

This is my second career, but I fortunately survived 2008 and 2016. My luck ran out it seems.

Sorry to hear.  I'm trying my hardest to plan my next move right now.  The project I'm on only exists for mass export, so...

I voluntarily dipped out of O&G in '15 after making it thru 6 layoffs.  And I absolutely hated the move, hated the work, hated the (lack of) money, so I came back.  Now less than year later this shit.  I'm at a total loss on what to do next.  Hope you can find a successful transition.

[LABEVO 928]

1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1248592902957273088

similar sentiment from researching reports...

 

Quote

.... the voluntary cuts as still too little and too late to avoid breaching storage capacity, ensuring that low oil prices force all producers to contribute to the market rebalancing....We therefore reiterate our view that inland crude prices will decline further in coming weeks as storage capacity becomes saturated and expect further weakness in WTI timespreads and crude prices in coming weeks, as already presaged on Friday, with downside risks to our short-term $20/bbl forecast.

 

[ryskey 447]

22 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Sorry to hear.  I'm trying my hardest to plan my next move right now.  The project I'm on only exists for mass export, so...

I voluntarily dipped out of O&G in '15 after making it thru 6 layoffs.  And I absolutely hated the move, hated the work, hated the (lack of) money, so I came back.  Now less than year later this shit.  I'm at a total loss on what to do next.  Hope you can find a successful transition.

We will need that export capacity at some point, even if US production already peaked.  Light oil demand in the US isn't going any higher, but it will in Asia.

[Dnaguy 11920]

37 minutes ago, nycHorn said:

He was a bouncer at the Double Deuce.  Cool spot, great looking 1980's women.

I hear his balls are so big he can cum In a dump truck....

 

[Dnaguy 11920]

I know this is not CR, but this seems to be the place to post this.

10 is actually 20 mmbbl so... we’re all good?

Seriously though.... if we already a one he’ll of a rocky negotiation to cut < 10, how are we going to get to 20?

[Neonmoon 38129]

Seems like the cuts are not moving the needle 

May should be fun 

[Hate 20107]

10 wont be enough. Like someone already mentioned, we will run out or places to store the oil. Production will be cut further sooner rather than later.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

 

[Dutchrudder 11136]

The issue is that it's going to be US producers that will be making huge cuts, and we will continue to send more money overseas for other people's oil once all this stuff rebounds. Continuing our dependence on Mid East oil is not a good idea, but it's not like Saudi is going to run out of reserves any time soon. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

I was just trying to get that on the same page as the latest #trumptwit

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

I’m to sorry to hear that. When you say second career what do you mean?

After I graduated from Texas in 1999 I worked in the music industry (recording engineer/studio owner). I got into O&G (project controls) in 2007.

[tx 3 putt 76876]

15 mil cut - im buying new golf clubs

20 mil cut - sugar baby is getting new tits

25 mil cut - new boat time !!!

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Specifically what do you do?  I don’t know if there is a fit in a time of reduced G&A but there are a few minerals buying shops in Austin. 

Project planner. Would be nice to get into civil projects or renewables. But with the virus, most everything seems on hold.

[fattyflattie 4639]

1 hour ago, ryskey said:

We will need that export capacity at some point, even if US production already peaked.  Light oil demand in the US isn't going any higher, but it will in Asia.

That's the hope, and I hope you are right.  But I still don't feel good about it.  

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

What is your degree?

Let’s just say I have a BS and a BA from Texas hahaha. Nothing that helps me get a job in this field.

[Hate 20107]

Good luck Swayze. For the first time in a very long time, I actually had good timing in finally landing somewhere. And check your PM’s.

[Storm the Field 5294]

2 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

I know this is not CR, but this seems to be the place to post this.

10 is actually 20 mmbbl so... we’re all good?

Seriously though.... if we already a one he’ll of a rocky negotiation to cut < 10, how are we going to get to 20?

 

I waded through a ton of analysis coming out of the OPEC+ meeting yesterday and I think the idea is that they're cutting starting from a baseline that's calculated off November 2018 production levels, rather than the inflated price-war levels of April 2020.

For example, Saudi Arabia was producing a little less than 11M/day as of November 2018 and will be cutting back 23% off that number to ~8.5M/day. But after last month's fallout with Russia, they ratcheted up to 12.3M/day. So, it's somewhat of a gimmick to say they're actually cutting 3.8M/day rather than 2.5M/day.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Storm the Field

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20393]

On 4/11/2020 at 2:16 AM, tx 3 putt said:

I just get the feeling that this is all the calm before the storm. The heavy shit hasn't even hit yet 

 

Fracking was an illusion created by cheap debt.  All that's left now is to count the corpses.

From a hydrologist's point of view, good riddance.  It was an environmental catastrophe. 

[Mighty fine 169]

He may have been referring to the quantities of relatively fresh water being consumed as opposed to water quality/ pollution potential

[Archer 474]

22 minutes ago, Mighty fine said:

He may have been referring to the quantities of relatively fresh water being consumed as opposed to water quality/ pollution potential

Almost every major player is reusing produced water for fracs either 100% produced or blended with some fresh water. It’s a green/green solution 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Archer

[Mighty fine 169]

Almost every major player is reusing produced water for fracs either 100% produced or blended with some fresh water. It’s a green/green solution 

But at what percentage within their operation?

Upstream E&P life cycle water management has really grown in the last decade; the produced water managment subsection has really taken off since 2013-2014 or so. The stuff that PXD, DVN, SWN, etc, have been doing on the water side is pretty damn cool and innovative. But let's not pretend that every major player isn't poking new water wells to support growing ops, either.

[Archer 474]

12 minutes ago, Mighty fine said:

But at what percentage within their operation?

Upstream E&P life cycle water management has really grown in the last decade; the produced water managment subsection has really taken off since 2013-2014 or so. The stuff that PXD, DVN, SWN, etc, have been doing on the water side is pretty damn cool and innovative. But let's not pretend that every major player isn't poking new water wells to support growing ops, either.

That’s a fair question, what I am seeing is nearly 100% is using produced water, but I can admit that I may have some blinders on. 
 

I’ve been in a couple data rooms in the past year and even the PE backed sellers are designing their infrastructure and putting in recycle pits to enable produced water reuse. In full transparency they were using water wells to prove their acreage but they weren’t and probably won’t be to a development level that supports actually reusing water. They are using it as a carot for the buyers who do care about it. 

[Mighty fine 169]

I'm tracking with you on that. And yeah, the development density is critical recycle operations to be feasible economically. Regulatory headwinds still pose a challenge to recycle in some areas; funny enough, I don't believe University Lands allowed large scale produced water recycle/ reuse on their leases until 2017 or 2018.

[Archer 474]

14 minutes ago, Mighty fine said:

I'm tracking with you on that. And yeah, the development density is critical recycle operations to be feasible economically. Regulatory headwinds still pose a challenge to recycle in some areas; funny enough, I don't believe University Lands allowed large scale produced water recycle/ reuse on their leases until 2017 or 2018.
 

Article on RRC recycling in Marcellus. I remembered seeing it in a feed a while back and dug it up. They claim to have been using recycling for a decade but are still having to supplement with fresh. Specifically point out the differences in TX and PA SWDs

https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/early-adoption-water-recycling-186064

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Down 5.5% today.

 

Cool

[BTW 370]

There're more blood coming.  I really do think we are headed back into the teens here before too long.

Also, adding to the previous discussion.  I know a lot of groups are drilling deeper/brackish wells for source water and using less of the shallower and relatively fresh water.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Wow, Reuters with the hard-hitting journalism: 

Quote

Troll no more: Energy Twitter group's big short on shale comes good

 

Shariq Khan, Arathy S Nair

6 Min Read

(Reuters) - Just like the street hustler turned commodities broker in the 1980s comedy “Trading Places” for which he named his twitter account, @WillRayValentin (BRV) is an outsider making waves in the world of energy stocks trading.

A petroleum engineer by background, BRV is a member of the ‘Energy Fintwit’ (EFT) community on Twitter made of oil industry insiders - engineers, geologists and former traders - who have gained notoriety and thousands of followers for their unabashed bearish tweets about the U.S. shale industry.

As U.S. crude oil prices halved in March under the weight of recession fears and a price war, many of the group’s members had a field day as their ‘shorts’ on U.S. shale companies - bets that their stock prices would fall - paid off.

BRV’s own trading account, which he shared with Reuters, showed he pocketed $4 million in just one week between March 9 and March 16.

“I’ve made a lot more money shorting energy stocks than my entire career working 9-5. It was like picking money up off the street,” BRV told Reuters in a phone interview. Like many others, he will not reveal his name, citing fears of industry retribution.

With their invective-laden diatribes against oil executives, memes and cartoons, posts by the likes of BRV, @HalliBu78316368 (Halli Burton) or @EnergyCynic (Energy Cynic), have gotten greater attention last year following some prescient calls.

“If you want to know the real narrative in energy, particularly the bear arguments on investor relations, you have to be on Twitter,” said Ethan Bellamy, energy sector analyst at RW Baird, one of some half a dozen analysts and investors who told Reuters following the group is now part of their routine.

Its most prominent member is @Mr_Skilling (Mr. Skilling), whose alias is an ironic tribute to Jeff Skilling, a former executive jailed for his role in the accounting scandal that brought down energy trading giant Enron nearly two decades ago.

 

Mr. Skilling counts journalists, analysts and politicians among his roughly 9,000 followers, more than some well-regarded industry analysts.

Jeff Skilling’s lawyer did not respond to requests for comment.

 

Dan Pickering, founder and CIO at Pickering Energy Partners, and a 30-year energy sector veteran said posts by “guerilla activists” like Mr. Skilling do factor in his analysis.

“There are absolutely institutional investors that follow this space. I’ve gotten questions about Mr. Skilling from my investor base.”

One of the group’s most prescient calls was an Oct. 31 report in which @EnergyCredit1, BRV and @Oil_Gonif set a $0 price target for Whiting Petroleum Corp (WLL.N), warning about its high leverage and underperforming wells.

On April 1, the oil producer filed for bankruptcy, but at the time of the report, 30 out of 31 brokerages polled by Refinitiv had a “hold” or better rating for the stock.

Mr. Skilling’s months-long battle with Tallgrass Energy LP (TGE.N), over guarantees of higher payouts for its management in a takeover by Blackstone (BX.N) last year, also helped raise his and the group’s profile.

Under fire from investors, the pipeline operator’s CEO stepped down and Blackstone ultimately offered concessions to the company’s common shareholders.

Tallgrass did not respond to requests for comment.

YOU’VE BEEN WARNED

The group’s members acknowledge they could not have anticipated the coronavirus outbreak and the extent of the oil market rout, but they say the crash validates the argument they were making when oil was at $60, which is that many U.S. shale operators were unfit to survive a major shock.

“When oil was at $100 it was more difficult to identify the bad companies,” says Halli Burton, whose Twitter profile declares she is the “VP of SHIT-Shale Health Investment Trust”. “We are finally at a point today where we can start recognizing good and bad companies.

Not everyone agrees. The U.S. shale industry is by its nature a higher-cost supplier, which meets demand low-cost producers cannot satisfy when markets are strong, so it is bound to suffer in a slump, and just to blame the managers is too simplistic, the argument goes.

 

Still, for over a year now, there are signs of the group’s arguments easing into the mainstream.

In November, analysts at Wolfe Research noted a rising volume of ‘peak shale’ tweets about rapidly slowing U.S. production growth signalling growing concerns about the sector’s outlook.

UBS analysts, conscious that investors and industry executives at its annual conference were desperate to establish Mr. Skilling’s true identity, last September promised him all the Presidente margaritas he needed at a Houston Chilli’s restaurant if he would only turn up to meet the fans.

As expected, Skilling did not show.

 

The graphs are very informative, couldn't paste

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Rusty Shackelford

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

 

[Planet Houston 4930]

Hahaha, Jim Teague with the kill shot to these shitty producers:

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

I understand why they are campaigning, but it’s pretty sad to see Pioneer beg the RRC to intervene. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

7 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Wow, Reuters with the hard-hitting journalism: 

 

The graphs are very informative, couldn't paste

 

Was making a bearish call on Whiting in Oct after it already lost 80% of its stock value in the previous six months all that prescient?

I mean these dudes and dudettes seem pretty cool and the world needs more naysayers and cynics, but their signature win wasn’t that big of a shocker.

[Archer 474]

Man, fuck Pioneer. Those assholes (CEO) have done several things lately that have pissed me off. I get that they are trying to talk shit to get a stock bump but are trying to cut everyone else’s throat to do it. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

I was on the RRC commission call for most of today.  Just wanted to chime in and say fuck Saudia Arabia and Russia.  That is all.

[Archer 474]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I believe you’re a small producer. I don’t think you’d be impacted in the slightest, except the price might rise a bit. This is to avoid disorder. Struggling large companies (Marathon, EnCana) might sell whatever they can to generate enough cash flow to hang on. 

I think this is much ado about nothing for the most part. Companies are gonna curtail anyway, mostly, because wellhead prices will remain so low for a multi-month period. However low they’ll be in May, I can’t see em getting much better in June. I honestly wonder when it will turn around. 

Edit to conclude I don’t know how I feel about prorations - so long as they’re temporary.

I’m actually a worker bee cog in the wheel, at one point I had dreams of a small fleet of stripper wells but not sure how feasible that is anymore.  I do have several good buddies that are small operators and OBO companies so I get to see their trials and tribulations.  
 

My Pioneer anger goes back a few months before their latest proration pleas. 
 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Archer

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Good summary here

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-14/oil-executives-impugn-motives-of-texas-crude-quota-advocates?sref=KN4UXC3c&__twitter_impression=true

[MadTrapper 152]

Was making a bearish call on Whiting in Oct after it already lost 80% of its stock value in the previous six months all that prescient?
I mean these dudes and dudettes seem pretty cool and the world needs more naysayers and cynics, but their signature win wasn’t that big of a shocker.

One other example... they called Apache out in their Alpine High BS well before the stock tanked. APA initial slides indicated break-evens at least that $1, which was a complete fabrication. CEO even said that the play would "hum" with gas at $2. They touted wells as being 'oil' wells with yields less than 150 bbls/mmcf. Most shale is terrible and they've been calling it. Timing is risky, but the fundamentals aren't hard. It's been a complete Ponzi scheme. Now APA has laid down all rigs in Alpine High.

Billions spent on infrastructure and it's all wasted.

[Cody2422 271]

Ring Energy announced the sale of their Delaware Basin assets yesterday for $31MM, about 900BOED equivalent.  Their stock jumped 75% on the news.  Anyone have a guess as to the buyer?  I feel like someone overpaid in this environment.  

Edited April 15, 2020 by Cody2422

[OilChuck 12]

For you Rockies guys PDC slashing budget up here by 50% and layoffs, they were one of the bigger guys in the DJ, already had over 200 DUCs from 2018/2019.

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2020/04/15/pdc-energy-layoffs-spending-cuts-coronavirus.html 

[Blotto 23491]

CHK reverse stock split (200-1) going swimmingly so far

 

[Lagunamadre 1975]

25 minutes ago, Blotto said:

CHK reverse stock split (200-1) going swimmingly so far

 

LOL, the shorts are having a field day. 

Honest question, how many times can a company reverse split before the NYSE tells them to fuck off. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

[LABEVO 928]

 

[Blotto 23491]

7 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

LOL, the shorts are having a field day. 

Honest question, how many times can a company reverse split before the NYSE tells them to fuck off. 

I'm not sure but many of the leveraged bear ETFs split every year or more, so it likely the exchange will tell CHK to fuck off for other reasons before it gets to that. Unfortunately no options listed yet.