Hey Oil Barons.......

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

Thought XOM would dip again but it’s like Nah.

[ZB'Tejas 593]

I tried to outsmart the market and buy $DUG yesterday... boo.

I'm still holding several O&G companies but how long does this keep going up?

Edited April 29, 2020 by ZB'Tejas

[HoustonFrog 368]

I’m slightly skeptical on whether the finance side will have learned their lesson when things come back around. I read an internal report yesterday and was just astonished by what some of my colleagues think of basins and management teams. Granted I’ve been the pessimist on the team for the past six months.

Walk this thing back four months and two of the deals we brought were just absurdly stupid, thankfully they got killed just in time. I mean one of them was a new iteration of a portCo and their plan was to immediately take the RBL, drill as quickly as possible and be at 80-90% utilization within a year. Why the fuck are you doing that? Why not drill at a moderate pace and utilize 50%? I was consistently told these guys were top management with xyz background... morons. Another client unfortunately did this exact thing a year ago... guess what dipshits, your BB is getting cut 20% and you’re in a deficiency. Just totally unnecessary.

Also - it’s quite remarkable how once these companies stop drilling their EBITDA craters within 6-12 months. Doesn’t seem to follow the type curves I was shown the past two years. Have to wonder if they were forced to not drill for the next 2-4 years if the cash flow would actually pay back the debt. I doubt it. It has all the makings of a complex ponzi.

[HoustonFrog 368]

I’m slightly skeptical on whether the finance side will have learned their lesson when things come back around. I read an internal report yesterday and was just astonished by what some of my colleagues think of basins and management teams. Granted I’ve been the pessimist on the team for the past six months.

Walk this thing back four months and two of the deals we brought were just absurdly stupid, thankfully they got killed just in time. I mean one of them was a new iteration of a portCo and their plan was to immediately take the RBL, drill as quickly as possible and be at 80-90% utilization within a year. Why the fuck are you doing that? Why not drill at a moderate pace and utilize 50%? I was consistently told these guys were top management with xyz background... morons. Another client unfortunately did this exact thing a year ago... guess what dipshits, your BB is getting cut 20% and you’re in a deficiency. Just totally unnecessary.

Also - it’s quite remarkable how once these companies stop drilling their EBITDA craters within 6-12 months. Doesn’t seem to follow the type curves I was shown the past two years. Have to wonder if they were forced to not drill for the next 2-4 years if the cash flow would actually pay back the debt. I doubt it. It has all the makings of a complex ponzi.

[The Royal We 3070]

16 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

I’m slightly skeptical on whether the finance side will have learned their lesson when things come back around. I read an internal report yesterday and was just astonished by what some of my colleagues think of basins and management teams. Granted I’ve been the pessimist on the team for the past six months.

Walk this thing back four months and two of the deals we brought were just absurdly stupid, thankfully they got killed just in time. I mean one of them was a new iteration of a portCo and their plan was to immediately take the RBL, drill as quickly as possible and be at 80-90% utilization within a year. Why the fuck are you doing that? Why not drill at a moderate pace and utilize 50%? I was consistently told these guys were top management with xyz background... morons. Another client unfortunately did this exact thing a year ago... guess what dipshits, your BB is getting cut 20% and you’re in a deficiency. Just totally unnecessary.

Also - it’s quite remarkable how once these companies stop drilling their EBITDA craters within 6-12 months. Doesn’t seem to follow the type curves I was shown the past two years. Have to wonder if they were forced to not drill for the next 2-4 years if the cash flow would actually pay back the debt. I doubt it. It has all the makings of a complex ponzi.

Yea, I don't know if I agree with Doc Beeper that the money will be smarter the next time around - give me one more good boom, I promise I won't squander it this time.  It may not be exactly like a Ponzi, but the whole thing sure seems to fall apart if there isn't some other optimistic sap to unload everything on after a few years... 

I'm not sure if it will be as easy for those who access the foundation/pension capital directly or not, but the teams I work with that have taken that route instead of PE have actually been pretty conservative and I think are going to be able to weather this storm.

The bad news and hard conversations keep piling up for me - the London market is hardening at a terrible time, collateral demands from surety bond underwriters, the D&O market for both private and public E&P companies is doling out 100-200% rate increases, etc. etc.

[Storm the Field 5294]

On top of this, I've seen reports estimating that US production is already down 1.5Mbbl/day since the beginning of the crisis, and large scale shut-ins are just beginning. Currently sitting around ~11.5M/day. I'd expect we'll drop to below 10M by end of June. That would wipe out nearly 3 years of supply growth.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Storm the Field

[stone oak 639]

Got my 20% "temporary" paycut today.

We aren't selling a single drop of oil right now, everything is being stored locally.

[Trey3216 15345]

Unfortunately, I won’t be calling any of y’all until at least Monday.   Gotta find the right numbers between now and Friday.  

[3adays 454]

CHK is finally going to file bankruptcy.  

[Neonmoon 38129]

4 hours ago, 3adays said:

CHK is finally going to file bankruptcy.  

I hope they stretch it to next week. I had the over on May 1st

[Trey3216 15345]

This song reminds me of the current sitch-ee-ayshun for some reason...

 

https://youtu.be/XmIqIVxUuKs

[billfromlaketravis 11448]

5 hours ago, 3adays said:

CHK is finally going to file bankruptcy.  

I remember talking about CHK bankruptcy rumors at work in 2012. They've hung on an amazingly long time. I knew some good people that worked there, but good riddance. 

[Updawg 2266]

I remember talking about CHK bankruptcy rumors at work in 2012. They've hung on an amazingly long time. I knew some good people that worked there, but good riddance. 

Yeah, that has been a long slow road for sure

[Updawg 2266]

I remember talking about CHK bankruptcy rumors at work in 2012. They've hung on an amazingly long time. I knew some good people that worked there, but good riddance. 

Yeah, that has been a long slow road for sure

[Storm the Field 5294]

Continuing to chip away at the supply/demand imbalance:

COP announces cuts of 265K barrels/day in May, 460K in June. 

Norway announces cuts of 250K for June, 135K through December 2020.

Valero says gasoline demand has climbed from 55% of normal to 64% in the past week. 

 

[Big Jimmy 0]

Marathon Oil layoffs in Houston today.  

Edited April 30, 2020 by Big Jimmy

[BTW 370]

An interesting development here in the Permian coming from all of this.  I haven't seen it discussed here, apologies if so.

Apparently crude purchasers are having trouble finding enough barrels to meet their contractual demands.  So many wells shut-in, curtailed and operators storing their own barrels on lease that this is apparently the case.  My friends in purchasing are now actually having to pay premiums to what they sold their futures contracts for last month in order to make delivery, making the losses even worse for them. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

I guess anything is possible these days, but I have a hard time believing anyone is having difficulty finding barrels.  Sounds more like your buddies are being taken to the cleaners.

[LurkingHorn 1066]

10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I guess anything is possible these days, but I have a hard time believing anyone is having difficulty finding barrels.  Sounds more like your buddies are being taken to the cleaners.

I'm in Midcon, but one of our purchasers called today asking for any barrels we could send them--even split loads. We are selling a ton today and saving the storage for next month when prices are even lower. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Shell announces dividend cut for first time since WWII

first major to announce dividend cut. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

37 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Shell announces dividend cut for first time since WWII

first major to announce dividend cut. 

Equinor (formerly known as Statoil) is pretty big and they cut their dividend last week.

[Cajun 11705]

Just got a new division order to sign for XTO today.

Pretty gotdamned unexpected.

[tx 3 putt 76880]

12 hours ago, Big Jimmy said:

Marathon Oil layoffs in Houston today.  

 

damn, hate hearing this. i have a couple of classmates over there 

[bluto 4915]

Xom numbers this morning

Exxon posted a GAAP loss of 14 cents per share, and a non-GAAP profit of 53 cents per share. The consensus estimate was for a breakeven quarter. The company announced a 30% cut in capital spending and will also reduce cash operating expenses by 15%.

[JimmyTwoTimes 79]

Noms for May 1 natural gas production are 88.4 bcf, likely to get revised a bit higher, averaged about 92 last month.

[Parliament 14249]

Not sure what it means, but oil is trading negative in Kansas as well.

KANSAS CRUDE OIL PRICES
COMMODITY	PRICE	CHANGE	UNIT	UPDATED
Central Kansas Sweet	5.35	3(127.66%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Eastern Kansas	47.75	-0.25(-0.52%)	$US/Barrel	02 Jan 2018
Eastern Kansas Common	2.00	0(0%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Eastern Kansas Common Special	-2.05	0(0%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Kansas	10.50	2.75(35.48%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Kansas Common	3.14	2.85(982.76%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Northwestern Kansas Sweet	3.25	3(1200%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
South Central Kansas	52.25	-0.25(-0.48%)	$US/Barrel	02 Jan 2018
Southwest Kansas	4.23	2.7(176.47%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Southwestern Kansas Sweet	3.75	3(400%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020

 

 

https://www.oilmonster.com/crude-oil-prices/united-states/kansas/17

[Storm the Field 5294]

Daily tidbits:

XOM cutting 400K/day in Q2. 100K from Permian, rest from Canada and international.

CVX cutting 200-300K in May, 200-400K in June. 

Air travel numbers beginning to improve ever so slightly. 155K went through TSA checkpoints yesterday. That's the highest number since 3/30, though still ~95% less than this time last year.

[Eastwood 4394]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Not sure what it means, but oil is trading negative in Kansas as well.

KANSAS CRUDE OIL PRICES
COMMODITY	PRICE	CHANGE	UNIT	UPDATED
Central Kansas Sweet	5.35	3(127.66%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Eastern Kansas	47.75	-0.25(-0.52%)	$US/Barrel	02 Jan 2018
Eastern Kansas Common	2.00	0(0%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Eastern Kansas Common Special	-2.05	0(0%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Kansas	10.50	2.75(35.48%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Kansas Common	3.14	2.85(982.76%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Northwestern Kansas Sweet	3.25	3(1200%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
South Central Kansas	52.25	-0.25(-0.48%)	$US/Barrel	02 Jan 2018
Southwest Kansas	4.23	2.7(176.47%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Southwestern Kansas Sweet	3.75	3(400%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020

 

 

https://www.oilmonster.com/crude-oil-prices/united-states/kansas/17

Kansas Has No Trees

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

4 hours ago, Parliament said:

Not sure what it means, but oil is trading negative in Kansas as well.

KANSAS CRUDE OIL PRICES
COMMODITY	PRICE	CHANGE	UNIT	UPDATED
Central Kansas Sweet	5.35	3(127.66%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Eastern Kansas	47.75	-0.25(-0.52%)	$US/Barrel	02 Jan 2018
Eastern Kansas Common	2.00	0(0%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Eastern Kansas Common Special	-2.05	0(0%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Kansas	10.50	2.75(35.48%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Kansas Common	3.14	2.85(982.76%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Northwestern Kansas Sweet	3.25	3(1200%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
South Central Kansas	52.25	-0.25(-0.48%)	$US/Barrel	02 Jan 2018
Southwest Kansas	4.23	2.7(176.47%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020
Southwestern Kansas Sweet	3.75	3(400%)	$US/Barrel	29 Apr 2020

 

 

https://www.oilmonster.com/crude-oil-prices/united-states/kansas/17

Doesn't match the facts on the ground in Kansas. Spot prices never went negative there, did get to about25 cents on day oil went -37.00. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

Seems legit from checking out the Reddit thread. Bosses told workers furlough was ending early and for everybody to come in Monday so... they can be unfurloughed and immediately laid off. Maybe you could pull a variant on the Costanza and just not show up Monday and hide out at home for awhile.  

[tx 3 putt 76880]

1 hour ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Seems legit from checking out the Reddit thread. Bosses told workers furlough was ending early and for everybody to come in Monday so... they can be unfurloughed and immediately laid off. Maybe you could pull a variant on the Costanza and just not show up Monday and hide out at home for awhile.  

you bet like hell im slipping and tripping on the way in !!!!!!!!!

[tx 3 putt 76880]

when I had an office, the only personal item I kept in there was a coffee mug. they can keep that

 

if you work for any oil field service company (and have any sense), you know this day is coming sooner or later and you'll buy back in (after swearing you'll never work for an oil field service company again !!!) and that day will come again and so and so and so on. doesn't make it right but that's how shit goes. 

Edited May 3, 2020 by tx 3 putt

[Telegraph_it 3357]

@tx 3 putt I agree with the first part. I left my office bare. Coworkers always made comments but it made things a lot easier once I was given the boot. 
 

Second part for me didn’t hold. I left and never looked back. Every year I feel better about the decision. I won’t lie; I do miss it somehow. 
 

I hate to see that at Halliburton office. Family friend was furloughed. He had been with company 25 something years. Worked in global supply chain I think so he managed to stay essential for a long time. 

[tx 3 putt 76880]

I’m 4 years or so, all these companies laying off will be offering huge sign on bonuses to get people back 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

I'm doing my part to help oil prices go up... opened a position in SCO today.

[Armybrat 40826]

On 5/3/2020 at 1:48 AM, tx 3 putt said:

when I had an office, the only personal item I kept in there was a coffee mug. they can keep that

 

if you work for any oil field service company (and have any sense), you know this day is coming sooner or later and you'll buy back in (after swearing you'll never work for an oil field service company again !!!) and that day will come again and so and so and so on. doesn't make it right but that's how shit goes. 

Been that way for over a century.

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

On 5/3/2020 at 1:48 AM, tx 3 putt said:

when I had an office, the only personal item I kept in there was a coffee mug. they can keep that

 

if you work for any oil field service company (and have any sense), you know this day is coming sooner or later and you'll buy back in (after swearing you'll never work for an oil field service company again !!!) and that day will come again and so and so and so on. doesn't make it right but that's how shit goes. 

I need my 28 year old HP-48SX calculator, but other than that they can keep the rest.

[Storm the Field 5294]

Looks like last week was the final week before the rig count officially drops into the 300's and sets all-time record lows.

Friday's count was down to 408  (325 oil/81 gas). 57 less than last week. 582 less than the same week last year.

 

[tx 3 putt 76880]

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I need my 28 year old HP-48SX calculator, but other than that they can keep the rest.

I’m in sales, no calculators needed 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

I can’t remember what I left at my desk. But I know I have their laptop and one of the monitors.

But my department manager texted me today that he put up for a job opening. Hopefully my resume isn’t one of 20 and the client chooses me.

[Trey3216 15345]

Natty making a break for it overnight.   Trading at 2.11+, up almost 7%.   Finally broke over 2.018.  Could get violent 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

We're fucked.

[stone oak 639]

16 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

"Oil prices too low imo"

[Moby Ric 2058]

Natgas, damn.

[GringoSalado 1651]

23 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I need my 28 year old HP-48SX calculator, but other than that they can keep the rest.

[Assman 1830]

Low oil prices are a factor, albeit a small one, in why airlines are still operating today without furloughing employees.  Per internal email at my airline, Jet-A costs about 50% of what it did earlier this year.  So....thanks oil barons?

[Storm the Field 5294]

WTI closes out the day with a nearly 24% increase to $25.28. 

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

WTI closes out the day with a nearly 24% increase to $25.28. 

 

The 18 tankers off the coast says that might go poof 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The 18 tankers off the coast says that might go poof 

Fucking Saudi's.