Hey Oil Barons.......

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

5 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:

On 6/6/2020 at 11:49 AM, TexanTraveling said:

anybody have thoughts or opinions on the future of Sanchez Energy?

Besides run away?

Their office space will soon be for rent 

[TexanTraveling 42]

17 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Their office space will soon be for rent 

 

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Lulz. Yeah, my opinion is somewhere down the road they’ll have a 3rd BK. 

 

5 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:

On 6/6/2020 at 11:49 AM, TexanTraveling said:

anybody have thoughts or opinions on the future of Sanchez Energy?

Besides run away?

No chance they would be bought out or that the restructure might work?

[Llano Estacado 1,257]

BOD, C-suite, and ExMngmt regret to inform you that no one knows more about the assets that than they do. Their experience with bankruptcy. Their relationship with the rank and file. They’d be willing to stay onboard for a small COLA and pittance in retention bonus. Surely the shareholders will see the value!

[52-80 19,162]

6 hours ago, Llano Estacado said:

BOD, C-suite, and ExMngmt regret to inform you that no one knows more about the assets that than they do. Their experience with bankruptcy.

 

[Eastwood 4,394]

Chesapeake shares halted pending news.

Edit: Rumor is Chapter 11

Edited June 9, 2020 by Eastwood

[Fudge Nuggets 19,204]

Not that I have the wherewithal to do it, but looks like the last week or so some of the easiest money you could ever make would be wait for the WTI contract to get pushed down -1.5 - 2.0%, buy it and sell when it recovers the losses back to its previous close.  Rinse, repeat, make bank / get ass.

[stone oak 639]

Every deal I'm seeing is massively overvalued with ridiculously optimistic type curves. So, business as usual.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,204]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

So easy in hindsight. 

Hell, you can make even more with it down 8% today, this is a fucking gift.

Time to put the kids' college funds all in on /CL with leverage.

And yes, I'm joking.  Things work until they don't.  Today they don't.

[Eastwood 4,394]

2 hours ago, stone oak said:

Every deal I'm seeing is massively overvalued with ridiculously optimistic type curves. So, business as usual.

Sounds like people haven't capitulated, yet.

[DCA_HORN 725]

Every deal I'm seeing is massively overvalued with ridiculously optimistic type curves. So, business as usual.

Let me guess 1.8 b factors and Dmin of 4?

[DCA_HORN 725]

Sounds like people haven't capitulated, yet.

Captualtion will come one way or another in the fall.

[stone oak 639]

3 minutes ago, DCA_HORN said:

3 hours ago, stone oak said:

Every deal I'm seeing is massively overvalued with ridiculously optimistic type curves. So, business as usual.

Let me guess 1.8 b factors and Dmin of 4?

Pretty freaking close...marketed EURs nearly cut in half after we ran through them. Yikes.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,204]

Cut in half from pre-February estimates or cut in half from estimates made after the brunt of the crash was known?

[DCA_HORN 725]

I think he means regardless of price the EUR was cut in half with reasonable assumptions.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,204]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

EUR should be irrelevant to the price crash. 

I was just trying to get a feel on whether bullshit production numbers were coming down from previous peaks now that info is out that they were all, well what was the word I used... yeah, bullshit.

If companies are still putting out bullshit EUR and people are still falling for it, then investors have no one to blame but themselves.  Thankfully in stone oak's case he is actually providing sound due diligence.  Just wonder if others woke up and are enlisting the help of those like him or if they still fly blind to the crap projections trotted out by those that drill for stock certificates?

[DCA_HORN 725]

EUR should be irrelevant to the price crash. 

Yes there's a difference between eur and economic barrels. In our world these things matter.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-writeoffs/bp-to-take-up-to-17-5-billion-writedown-lowers-oil-outlook-idUSKBN23M0QA#:~:text=LONDON (Reuters) - BP (BP.&text=As a result%2C BP will,after tax%2C the company said.

 

Quote

LONDON (Reuters) - BP (BP.L) will write off up to $17.5 billion from the value of its assets after cutting its long-term oil and gas price forecasts, betting the COVID-19 crisis will cast a lasting chill on energy demand and accelerate a shift away from fossil fuels.

Like its rivals, the British oil major is set to take a big hit to revenue from an unprecedented collapse in oil demand due to the pandemic. The impairments are set to raise its debt burden sharply and increase pressure to reduce its dividend.

The move comes as Chief Executive Bernard Looney prepares to outline his strategy in September to “reinvent” BP including a reduced focus on oil and gas and a larger renewables business.

BP lowered its benchmark Brent oil price forecasts to an average of $55 a barrel until 2050, down by around 30% from previous assumptions of $70.

The outlook is the lowest among Europe's top energy companies, according to Barclays research

That's going to sting a little

[OilChuck 12]

Extraction up here in Denver filed for Bankruptcy https://finance.yahoo.com/news/extraction-oil-gas-files-bankruptcy-080637452.html 

[Storm the Field 5,295]

1 hour ago, OilChuck said:

Extraction up here in Denver filed for Bankruptcy https://finance.yahoo.com/news/extraction-oil-gas-files-bankruptcy-080637452.html 

 Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. plans to pay 16 executives and senior managers a total of $6.7 million in return for staying with the Colorado-based driller ahead of a possible default on its bond payments.

Rank-and-file employees may receive a cash payment equivalent to their target 2020 pay, the Denver-based company said in a statement Thursday. The payments will help “maintain the stability and cohesion of our workforce,” it said.

[Storm the Field 5,295]

On 5/29/2020 at 1:34 PM, Storm the Field said:

Another 17 rigs dropped this week, breaking even further into record low territory. Down to 301 total. 103 below the previous low set in late May 2016. 

11th straight weekly decline for a cumulative 492 rigs laid down since the first Friday of March 2020.

I'll throw out a wild guess that the first two reports in June will show another ~25 down before hitting a bottom at ~275. The next few weeks after that will show only minor fluctuations <7 up or down. 

Pretty accurate so far. First week of June reported another 17 down, and then just 5 dropped last week. Current count is 279. 

[The Royal We 3,072]

Jesus.  That's a startling number to see. 

[52-80 19,162]

what do you mean they write it off?

[Armybrat 40,850]

Tucking the $17.5 Billion away in Switzerland & Panama before Big Oil collapses long term?

[Dnaguy 12,000]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

what do you mean they write it off?

[MAROON 445]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

what do you mean they write it off?

The accounting entry was something like this:

DR: Impairment Expense

CR: Assets

 

Hence Expenses are increased and Assets are decreased (they go poof)

[Storm the Field 5,295]

Fuel demand still gradually recovering.

Also, 544K travelers went through TSA checkpoints yesterday. While that's still ~75% below normal (2.6M+ flew on the 2nd Sunday of June 2019), it's the most people that have flown in a single day since March 21 (first full weekend of quarantine).

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32,395]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dnaguy 12,000]

9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

'Hydrocarbons that can never be burnt' is my new band name.

 

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

there are deeper cuts coming, imo 

Edited June 15, 2020 by tx 3 putt

[Llano Estacado 1,257]

1) “will” and “can” are 2 different things.
2) while I won’t encourage my kids to find work in O&G, I don’t see how/why historically low prices would cause a global shift away from hydrocarbons.
3)Over supply, low consumption, and the resulting sustained low commodity prices may be hell on shitco and a huge hit to the majors for the next year(s), but demand isn’t going to zero and someone will own and produce the assets at their break-even prices.

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

Motiva Port Arthur laying off 200. They'll easily hit that number just pushing out the 65+ crowd, hell 70+ crowd 

https://www.12newsnow.com/article/news/local/power-city/layoffs-economic-impact-heading-toward-port-arthur-as-covid-19-pandemic-continues/502-0a97c5b2-540a-4f74-910a-af7e8ca351db?fbclid=IwAR0K41HrhKFYZU9qa2rD3eTCs4372monjc8hvvxVQzM2LBcTvLCzbvHy6Bs

[Eastwood 4,394]

Rumor mill swirling about CHK filing for BK on Thursday. Franklin Resources will possibly be managing the assets after.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,204]

$CHK stock to the moon.

[Storm the Field 5,295]

IEA thinks supply and demand have already reached equilibrium and that consistent inventory draw-downs will begin in very near future.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,204]

Sounds like $OXY employees are going to get their 30% salary reductions back starting July 1.

[Parliament 14,260]

So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?

[The Royal We 3,072]

38 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I think I’m closing on my little piddly deal Friday or early next week. $2MM. PV10 of $3.2MM. A lot of low hanging fruit. Very little P&A. I’m so excited. I’m so excited. I’m so.... scared. 

Good luck getting it over the finish line, I know you've wanted to do something like this for quite some time.  Are you going to hedge or nah?

[Fudge Nuggets 19,204]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I don’t know the situation, but, that seems silly given we are in a very precarious price environment. 

Has anything that OXY's done in the last year made any sense?

[The Royal We 3,072]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I think you have me confused with someone else, maybe,

[HouTex 1,878]

I think I’m closing on my little piddly deal Friday or early next week. $2MM. PV10 of $3.2MM. A lot of low hanging fruit. Very little P&A. I’m so excited. I’m so excited. I’m so.... scared. 

Overall PV10 value or is that just for the PDP piece of it? Of course it depends on the assets, but for the larger deals I come across very little value is given for PUDs and Possibles.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?

No one knows shit. Pick as side. Pour a drink. And place your bets

[Trey3216 15,347]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?

Yes

[Okie State 3,821]

So are we at peak oil demand? Before the recent unpleasantness, driven miles were trending down, fuel economy was trending up, and apparently Tesla was fixin' to conquer the World. I know demand is bouncing off of the crash 2 months ago, but will it ever climb back to where it was?

Will populations continue to grow and will third world countries continue to develop?

[Chewbacca 7,780]

I think I’m closing on my little piddly deal Friday or early next week. $2MM. PV10 of $3.2MM. A lot of low hanging fruit. Very little P&A. I’m so excited. I’m so excited. I’m so.... scared. 

If you're not scared, there's not enough meat on the bone.

[Chewbacca 7,780]

I don’t follow. Maybe you meant if I’m scared there’s not enough meat on the bone?

Meat=opportunity, but it also means risk.

[Chewbacca 7,780]

I know what it means. I don’t think you meant to say “not” scared. 

No, i said what i meant. Read it again.

[FartingMonk 3,608]

I'm gonna say.  If you are in oil and gas or chemicals right now.  No matter how safe you think your job is.  If you don't have a backup plan.  You might be a fool

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

14 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I'm gonna say.  If you are in oil and gas or chemicals right now.  No matter how safe you think your job is.  If you don't have a backup plan.  You might be a fool

always

ive lost count of the dips and crashes since I graduated in 97. you better have at least 6 months pay put away if you want to last in this business, and be prepared to stretch that if needed. 

[castolon 193]

O&G specialty chem. I just assumed I'm fucked at all times, but I do love my job. 

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

keep your bills low and your cash plentiful