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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Cajun said:

Oh, I listened to you.  I was already buried in that mf'er when I brought up that I had poured the gasoline all over myself and lit up the cig on this site.  I think that's when you, and a handful of others, chimed in.  It wasn't like I didn't listen.  In fact, I was able to take a significant chunk of the sting out a few months ago when it bounced off the atmosphere before crashing into the Pacific.  I think my rate of return that one day was something like 600%.  I ejected at the apex of that bounce.

Still, it was a beating and a lot of you guys (you especially Beep) called it dead on.

And, yes, I will listen.

Remember the last time we talked on the phone? Guess who my client was at the time.

Edited by Eastwood
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Pescado_Rojo
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I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2,260

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On 8/5/2020 at 11:01 AM, tx 3 putt said:

Exxon said to suspend company match to employee retirement plans. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) has told employees it will begin suspending the employer match to retirement savings plans beginning in October, Reuters reports, citing an internal company message.

 

Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman said on Friday the company was planning both capital and operating expense cuts to defend its dividend, adding that investors "come to view that dividend as a source of stability in their income."

We were going over our schedule for later this year on Tuesday, and and when we got to one of our jobs, our EVP said don't worry about looking in to that one, they are shutting that refinery down.  Marathon shutting down the small one in NM and the larger one in Martinez.  

https://www.kqed.org/news/11831607/shutdown-of-marathons-martinez-refinery-prompts-calls-for-just-transition-for-oil-workers

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78,470

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the saudis arent playing nice  :  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/saudi-arabia-turns-off-america-s-oil-taps-again/ar-BB17KnvY

 

 For the second time in three years, Saudi Arabia is slashing the volume of crude it’s sending to America in an attempt to force down stockpiles in the world’s most visible oil market and thereby hasten the rebalancing of supply and demand.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78,470

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Motiva, which operates the largest U.S. refinery in Port Arthur, plans to lay off 10 percent of its workforce by September in response to the coronavirus-driven oil bust.

The Houston independent refiner and Saudi Aramco subsidiary confirmed Tuesday that it is cutting jobs from its corporate headquarters, terminals and Port Arthur refinery. Hourly operations, maintenance and lab employees will not be affected by the layoffs, the company said.

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Captainant

Captainant 28,389

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I think it’s a retarded talking point and realizing who I’m talking to, I strongly believe you are getting political and better watch it, fucko. 

Regardless, I view these (manufactured) issues as purely economic, and agree that now is not the right time to be pushing for any federal land opening. It’s dumb. We need to be better stewards of what we have now, and that means controlling the output (by limiting / lowering it, and getting more efficient as an industry). Anyone talking about this on either side is looking for a fight and it’s just noise. 

Genuinely not looking for a fight and I wouldn't come into a long-running thread to start shit. I work with a bunch of O&G well data companies in my career and I know that none of them are drilling, and are worried about some of the wells they service/analyze getting mothballed. So it didn't seem like a good economic choice to auction off those rights presently. I was curious to hear from people who don't mainly handle 0's and 1's like me their view on the opening. 

And I appreciate the response

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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I think we need to conserve as many natural resources on federal lands as possible. It's not needed, right now. It might be needed later. Why tap it now? If some other black swan event swings supply the other way, we're going to need it then.
In my mind it's click bait at this point as I'm not sure who would even lease it right now. However in regards to a black swan event where we needed the production, a project like this will take a good decade to see first production so it wouldn't be an answer to that type of situation.
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Grimas

Grimas 674

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On 8/5/2020 at 8:31 PM, Updawg said:

Not an oil guy but I always heard Exxon was very solid once you were in. These are rare times but still that’s ugly

XOM has always trimmed the bottom 5% of performers and continued to hire from the Universities regardless of the oil price.  If you weren't let go directly, they definitely let you know you didn't have a career there and to look elsewhere...  What isn't mentioned is that XOM is still funding the pension plan and the 401K contributions were benefits in addition to the pension plan...

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Captainant

Captainant 28,389

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41 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What do you do?  I’m not sure a “well data” company would ever drill. 

I think you’ll see a massive shift from companies that historically embarked on leasing acreage and development (drilling and completion) of new wells to deploying that talent and resources to buying PDP. So dependent upon what your “well data” companies do, I suspect they’ll have plenty of work to do. 

I'm in enterprise-level cloud architecture/IT. Two of my customers build and sell rigs and drill equipment and offer data services for wells, rigs, and drill sites. So they aren't drilling but they're "on" wells before, during, and after. Definitely seeing fresh efforts in using AI/ML (really just statistical analysis) to optimize completions on existing wells, lots of little 1-2% efficiency bumps from tweaking fracking mud mixtures and better coordination between systems

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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You spelled fracing wrong dumbshit. There’s no “k” in the word fracture.
I've been mostly out of pocket the past few months, guess I need to check the gone posters thread.

I was always on the frack side until the standard became frac but whatever I must be missing the inside rivalry.
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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What’d you do?

After trying to transition to a similar career and not enjoying it, I decided to get a law degree to give me more options. It's a gamble, but at least I'm not twiddling my thumbs and checking the price of oil twice a day, right now. I have over 10 years on the land side of things and experience in other legal areas of real estate, so I've already been receiving a good bit of interest from potential employers. All I need to do now is pass the bar exam.

Edited by Eastwood
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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78,470

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3 hours ago, Eastwood said:

After trying to transition to a similar career and not enjoying it, I decided to get a law degree to give me more options. It's a gamble, but at least I'm not twiddling my thumbs and checking the price of oil twice a day, right now. I have over 10 years on the land side of things and experience in other legal areas of real estate, so I've already been receiving a good bit of interest from potential employers. All I need to do now is pass the bar exam.

Give it hell  

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tequila

tequila 319

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Posted

I’ve been doing some macro analysis lately. My thoughts are that the US shale oil industry is broken and will be for the foreseeable future. In my opinion, the underlying decline curves on US shale oil are going to prohibit getting back to our 2019 US oil production rate within the next 5 years.

Thoughts?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

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19 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Correct. But you never know. And about “shedding assets”, anyone who buys shit at whatever discount will still overpay. You’re inheriting, likely, a neglected hornet’s nest and quite possibly an Asian Murder Hornet’s nest. 

Anyone who has something worthy of owning isn’t going to part ways at a discount. 

When no capital is available, the bid-ask is way too wide. It will remain wide until prices hit $80 again, or more capital comes in. 

Simply labeling yourself a PDP buyer is easy. Execution is hard. 

Due diligence on the leasehold side of these things really has become an exercise in determining just how bad the company rushed everything. The business model of the decade was to get as many barrels per day on the balance sheet as fast as possible so they could flip it. That has left a lot of legal landmines that were buried and forgotten.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38,130

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1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

Due diligence on the leasehold side of these things really has become an exercise in determining just how bad the company rushed everything. The business model of the decade was to get as many barrels per day on the balance sheet as fast as possible so they could flip it. That has left a lot of legal landmines that were buried and forgotten.

And this is why I drink 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,360

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Missed this story last week, but I saw that OXY raised some $$$ by selling off a couple million acres of fee interests in the Rockies last week. I presume these were primarily assets they acquired when they bought APC.

Occidental (NYSE: OXY) today announced it has entered into a purchase and sale agreement to divest Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah Land Grant assets to Orion Mine Finance (Orion) for approximately $1.33 billion. The transaction, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2020, has a footprint of approximately 4.5 million mineral acres and 1 million fee surface acres. Occidental will retain all cash flow from currently producing oil and gas properties on the position, which are primarily cost-free royalties. Not included in the sale is approximately 2.5 million mineral acres derived from the land grant in Colorado, including Occidental’s core DJ Basin position.

The acquired properties will be held under Sweetwater Royalties, a new base metals and industrial minerals royalty company, managed by Orion.

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3,090

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It won't do much (if anything) to prices, but I'm pretty sure multiple operators in the GOM have sustained significant damage to their assets.  I know I have a few clients both onshore and offshore that will find damages once they can get a bird in the air.  It will have a bigger effect on the insurance markets than anything else as the number of London syndicates willing and able to provide Named Windstorm coverage was dwindling already before this.

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