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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19188

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On 8/24/2020 at 3:00 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

I love the talking heads who say Laura and Marco are a reason crude is up today. No, actually the hurricanes should have like zero effect on domestic production. 

Operator’s shut in 80% of the oil production and 60% of the natural gas production.  It’s only temporary, but it’s not like oil doubled in price or anything crazy.

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Llano Estacado

Llano Estacado 1257

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Operator’s shut in 80% of the oil production and 60% of the natural gas production.  It’s only temporary, but it’s not like oil doubled in price or anything crazy.


Did some googling this morning and couldn’t really find anything on impact to LNG terminals and plants in Cameron and Calcasieu parish. Assume there’s going to be some hit to staff coming back this week and performing system checks, powering up generators, and reading for start-up. Did see Colonial Pipeline is already ramping to normal volumes.

We always see some delay with gulf export partners doing aerial surveys of pipelines and getting confirmation from other producers/operators that they’re good to flow after any sizable storm. Gas line operator that arrives onshore in Cameron parish told us yesterday it may be another week, minimum before they can pig and give us the okay to flow.

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Horns99

Horns99 155

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Did some googling this morning and couldn’t really find anything on impact to LNG terminals and plants in Cameron and Calcasieu parish. Assume there’s going to be some hit to staff coming back this week and performing system checks, powering up generators, and reading for start-up. Did see Colonial Pipeline is already ramping to normal volumes.

We always see some delay with gulf export partners doing aerial surveys of pipelines and getting confirmation from other producers/operators that they’re good to flow after any sizable storm. Gas line operator that arrives onshore in Cameron parish told us yesterday it may be another week, minimum before they can pig and give us the okay to flow.



They are keeping the info pretty tight. Sabine Pass will be back up pretty quick. Cameron is a completely different story, Lake Charles is a complete mess. Sounds like power is going to be out for awhile from what we are hearing down there.
What does Colonial Pipeline have to do with either location ?
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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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I'm posting this as an old guy who worked 40 plus years in the industry, albeit accounting,  in USA and China.  This lawsuit appeals to me.  There is no man on earth worth $100 million even if he discovers the cure for Covid-19.  She lost her lawsuit against Anadarko so I'm sure the facts are somewhat skewed but this old fart hopes the dude has to give up his jackpot.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/anadarko-s-100-million-ceo-ensnared-in-oilfield-fraud-lawsuit

The merger with OXY was a horrible mistake.  Paper money.  Today's economy.

 

 

 

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Llano Estacado

Llano Estacado 1257

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She lost her lawsuit against Anadarko so I'm sure the facts are somewhat skewed but this old fart hopes the dude has to give up his jackpot.


Lulz. I agree with your sentiment, but “help the shareholders at the expense of the board and senior management?!?”
Oldrichpowerbrokerslaughing.meme

No way any of those bonuses and payouts get back to old APC shareholders.

As of this summer LLOG, Beacon, and other partners were pursuing subsea trees and a floating production hub for Shenandoah...we’ll see.
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5293

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WTI trying to crawl back to $40 after getting kicked in the nuts last week. Soild EIA report this morning is helping out.

4.5M barrel crude draw has domestic inventory back below 500M barrels for the first time in several months.

Still a long ways to go to bleed off all the oversupply, but it's encouraging that we've gone from inventories ~25 above the 5-year average to ~14% over the course of the last 6 months. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5293

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5 minutes ago, jeevsie said:

Back over 40 is def nice to see.

Let's hope $40 can be a solid floor. Only problem is that I think, at least through the end of this year and start of 2021, the ceiling is not much taller than the floor. 

I'm struggling to come up with a way we get to $50 or more unless/until a majority of workers return to their offices and business and vacation travel picks up. Gotta get back to at least 1M passengers going through airports each day. That would still only be 50% of normal. I don't see that happening until next Spring maybe.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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Just now, Dr. Beeper said:

Supply cuts in a lot of places cannot just magically return. For example, the US. And demand was never nearly as dented as we thought it would be. 

If a vaccine is effective between Q4 and Q1, I think we are going to get back to $60+ more quickly than people thought possible. Perhaps that is just the optimist in me, or the Goldman Sachs “I Want to Believe” $65 in ‘21 article I recently read. Tell me why I’m wrong. 

Also, this last bust may have finally pushed out all the "laymen" investors. Doctors, RE agents, etc. I was told that the MLP model was exposed and gone for good after 2016, but I was still getting the occasional request to look into proposals slid across some of my more affluent friends' desks in 2019.

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bluto

bluto 4912

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Re the vaccine, the sane minds are saying mid 21 for a gen pop rollout is where expectations should be.

 

And as much as I would like for the vaccine to be THE answer, I’ve yet to hear a friend/acquaintance say they would step right up for it, besides a couple of at risk friends. And I don’t really run in anti vax circles. Hopefully between herd immunity via transmission and the ppl who will get the vaccine it’ll be enough to fully pull us out of the ditch though.

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

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Supply cuts in a lot of places cannot just magically return. For example, the US. And demand was never nearly as dented as we thought it would be. 
If a vaccine is effective between Q4 and Q1, I think we are going to get back to $60+ more quickly than people thought possible. Perhaps that is just the optimist in me, or the Goldman Sachs “I Want to Believe” $65 in ‘21 article I recently read. Tell me why I’m wrong. 
How quickly you forget the oil is going over 200 Goldman article.

The MLP model will come back eventually. Nobody ever learns. Will probably be in the form of some kind of minerals vehicle at first but whatever. Your 5 year time frame is probably about right.
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Cajun

Cajun 11705

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17 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Think of the travel, parties and general spending that will ensue when we have an effective vaccine. We will have this century’s Roaring 20s. 

Concur.

I think you're spot on DB.  There's a rubber band snap in demand coming at some point in the near future.

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Archer

Archer 474

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11 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I survived a 30% culling by nothing but pure blind luck.

I survived our last round they got 20-25% of my peers in the company. 
 

Have a contact at CHK, they were told to work from home on Friday and that they would be doing phone layoffs, 15% target. 

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Archer

Archer 474

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

God speed to those people. Hope they have transferable skills or enough saved up to hang out until the job market picks back up.

That’s the truth. 
 

I figure if I get caught up in a lay-off anytime soon I’ll have to roll into a new profession I just don’t see many jobs out there anytime soon. 
 

Would try to pick something up with existing degree but most likely would end up going back for a masters in mechanical or electrical and moving on. 

Edited by Archer
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