Hey Oil Barons.......

[Neonmoon 38129]

On 10/4/2020 at 9:37 PM, Eastwood said:

 

 

Certain companies are more than happy to do the bare minimum of contact and then force pool if they don't get something signed. Don't like it? Sue.

 

 Yep. It’s becoming more and more common. But you’re right, until someone sues, and doesn’t settle, it will continue. 

6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Within the last 2 years, I started seeing more and more Lessor-drafted lease forms that specifically preclude the Lessee from including the Lease in a PSA well or an allocation well without written consent. 

It all depends if the juice is worth the squeeze. But good for them, never give anything away. 

[Nivek 16923]

 

On 9/30/2020 at 9:38 PM, Patricio Swayze said:

I’ve applied to 2 jobs a week on average since May. Haven’t worked since April. This sucks. So few jobs out there and the ones that pop up have so many people apply it’s tough to get noticed. I know people at chevron, Wood, Worley and some others that have been let go. Most haven’t found work yet. I am sick of this shit.

April of this year?  It gets easier with time but it isn't linear.  By year 3, the apathy sets in.  

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

Lulz. I delivered 2 offers on a term royalty interest in Midland County.
Both from well qualified buyers and both under $7000/NRA.

Ask is $20k/NRA. Sigh. Managing seller expectations will never change in this space.

[DCA_HORN 725]

You want it to be one way, but its the other.

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

I should have clarified that the seller’s rep should be managing the expectations better. I rep the buyers.

[DCA_HORN 725]

Is a quote from the wire. I know what you meant. I'm sure they tried to manage expectations but its tough. Memories are only long in this business when it comes to sale metrics.

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

Ah. Never watched the Wire.

[Lagunamadre 1975]

17 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Lulz. I delivered 2 offers on a term royalty interest in Midland County.
Both from well qualified buyers and both under $7000/NRA.

Ask is $20k/NRA. Sigh. Managing seller expectations will never change in this space.

The bid/ask on minerals is still pretty far apart. Starting to see it come together a bit, but still a long way to go. 

[Lagunamadre 1975]

On 10/4/2020 at 7:28 PM, Neonmoon said:

Texas originally required 65% of all owners to sign to get a permit in Texas. Now I don’t think they even require them at all to get a permit.  There isn’t any case law on it on Texas. So they’re probably going to drill the well no matter what 

PSAs are the wild wild west right now. I've talked to my buddies at operating companies about the consequences of not signing PSAs and their response is always, we will drill it anyway, pay you like you signed it and you can take it to the Texas Supreme Court if you have the patience and deep enough pockets. I just sign them, be glad your getting a new well drilled on your minerals. 

[jeevsie 3733]

Good day today.

[Cajun 11705]

Indeed.

[billfromlaketravis 11448]

On 10/7/2020 at 2:36 PM, Lagunamadre said:

PSAs are the wild wild west right now. I've talked to my buddies at operating companies about the consequences of not signing PSAs and their response is always, we will drill it anyway, pay you like you signed it and you can take it to the Texas Supreme Court if you have the patience and deep enough pockets. I just sign them, be glad your getting a new well drilled on your minerals. 

I’d sign them. Companies will look for reasons to screw you if you don’t. If you’re big enough and they can’t drill around you, well you have leverage and should wield it. 
 

The best advice I can landowners is if it’s permissible in your lease, the company will go for it. A friend of my FIL has a frac pit on his property because he didn’t know what it was when he signed. You can’t control your operator, but you can control the language in your lease. There’s enough activity in the Permian that a landman or attorney is in your circle of friends. One lunch could pay for itself a thousand fold. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by billfromlaketravis

[billfromlaketravis 11448]

Good day indeed. The boss man said he slipped 6 new hires into the 2021 budget. I guarantee at least 4 of the 6 will be fresh college grads, but probably a good indicator they won’t be any more lay offs. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by billfromlaketravis

[Eastwood 4394]

Good day indeed. The boss man said he slipped 6 new hires into the 2021 budget. I guarantee at least 4 of the 6 will be fresh college grads, but probably a good indicator they won’t be any more lay offs. 

Taking resumes from people who are set up to work 100% from home?

[billfromlaketravis 11448]

1 minute ago, Eastwood said:

30 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Good day indeed. The boss man said he slipped 6 new hires into the 2021 budget. I guarantee at least 4 of the 6 will be fresh college grads, but probably a good indicator they won’t be any more lay offs. 

Taking resumes from people who are set up to work 100% from home?

I’m sure they’ll go younger and cheapest, but I’ll keep you posted. 

[Cajun 11705]

Again, no humblebrag or even brag b/c I did nothing to deserve it, but I’m astonished at the volume of DOs hitting my mailbox these last few weeks.  Just got another for a new well from XTO.  One thing in common is everything is Karnes these days.

Edited October 9, 2020 by Cajun

[Cajun 11705]

This is encouraging news.

[Storm the Field 5294]

Rig count rose for a 4th straight week.

Currently sitting at 269 active rigs. That's +25 since bottoming out in late August.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

Obvious answer:  pricing is already built in.

[Neonmoon 38129]

lower for longer

[Storm the Field 5294]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What does the group think about post election crude prices and forecast into 2021?  @ryskey@Trey3216

I imagine we stay stuck between $40-50 all the way through next summer as the oversupply slowly bleeds off.

[BTW 370]

The scuttlebutt around midland is that with the decrease in materials, drilling and completion costs the profitability of drilling for decently efficient operators continues to rise.  Meaning drilling projects are becoming economic and lower and lower oil prices.  So we can expect this to drag out the draw down on storage/oversupply well into 2022. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

33 minutes ago, BTW said:

The scuttlebutt around midland is that with the decrease in materials, drilling and completion costs the profitability of drilling for decently efficient operators continues to rise.  Meaning drilling projects are becoming economic and lower and lower oil prices.  So we can expect this to drag out the draw down on storage/oversupply well into 2022. 

We hear that after every bust.  Then when the next bust comes around all these supposed profitable operators go bankrupt or cut 80% of their work.

[Neonmoon 38129]

IEA - World Energy Outlook 2020 Report released

https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020

Quote

Our assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. The impacts vary by fuel. The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables. The reduction in natural gas demand is around 3%, while global electricity demand looks set to be down by a relatively modest 2% for the year.

then gives 4 different possible scenarios 

Quote

• The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), in which Covid-19 is gradually brought under control in 2021 and the global economy returns to pre-crisis levels the same year. This scenario reflects all of today’s announced policy intentions and targets, insofar as they are backed up by detailed measures for their realisation.
• The Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS) is designed with the same policy assumptions as in the STEPS, but a prolonged pandemic causes lasting damage to economic prospects. The global economy returns to its pre-crisis size only in 2023, and the pandemic ushers in a decade with the lowest rate of energy demand growth since the 1930s.
• In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), a surge in clean energy policies and investment puts the energy system on track to achieve sustainable energy objectives in full, including the Paris Agreement, energy access and air quality goals. The assumptions on public health and the economy are the same as in the STEPS.
• The new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case (NZE2050) extends the SDS analysis. A rising number of countries and companies are targeting net-zero emissions, typically by midcentury. All of these are achieved in the SDS, putting global emissions on track for net zero by 2070. The NZE2050 includes the first detailed IEA modelling of what would be needed in the next ten years to put global CO₂ emissions on track for net zero by 2050.

 

[Planet Houston 4930]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-14/conocophillips-is-said-to-be-in-talks-to-buy-concho-resources

👀👀👀

[BTW 370]

I was just coming to post this. It explains a lot. Like why Will, the COO of Concho enrolled his kids in school in Houston at the beginning of this school year.

Typical that I finally unloaded my deeply underwater CXO stock about two weeks ago.

[Neonmoon 38129]

11 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-14/conocophillips-is-said-to-be-in-talks-to-buy-concho-resources

👀👀👀

Damn, I know some Concho people who will not be happy. I wonder how many people they will keep. But we all know what will happen

[BTW 370]

I was secretly hoping that his move to Houston was indicative of the fact that he was on the way out.  He was a terrible choice for COO in the first place, and hugely unpopular with the employees.  Just check out this fake Twitter account that is clearly run by a disgruntled employee, or someone with inside knowledge of the goings-on. He was an attorney at V&E who was hired to Midland as general council. He then worked his way up the chain to where the only promotion was into the C-suite, and the only open position was COO (Engineer and Co-founder Joe Wright having recently retired, and Jack Harper having firm grip on president while co-founder Tim Leach would remain CEO).

tldr; I hoped it meant they were going to give his job to someone more qualified

[torre 1285]

3 hours ago, BTW said:

I was secretly hoping that his move to Houston was indicative of the fact that he was on the way out.  He was a terrible choice for COO in the first place, and hugely unpopular with the employees.  Just check out this fake Twitter account that is clearly run by a disgruntled employee, or someone with inside knowledge of the goings-on. He was an attorney at V&E who was hired to Midland as general council. He then worked his way up the chain to where the only promotion was into the C-suite, and the only open position was COO (Engineer and Co-founder Joe Wright having recently retired, and Jack Harper having firm grip on president while co-founder Tim Leach would remain CEO).

tldr; I hoped it meant they were going to give his job to someone more qualified

UT Law grad,  not all bad, just miscast  ?     🙂

[BTW 370]

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not commenting on him as a human, just his role in the company.

[Storm the Field 5294]

Real big drawdowns in this week's inventory report:

Crude -3.8M

Gasoline -1.1M

Distillates -7.2M

Crude inventories are now  11% above average, down from almost 20% above average earlier in the year. 

[DCA_HORN 725]

Hey Rockefellers, your great great grandpa has a bunch of cunts for descendants. 

Classic. Nobody knows who these conflicted souls were so they had to throw 5th generation Rockefeller on the screen. Oil and JP Morgan are bad. Europe is good. Blah blah blah. We have no solutions but listen to us.

[Storm the Field 5294]

Yesterday was the busiest day for US airports since the very early days of COVID shutdowns. First time that over a million travelers passed through TSA checkpoints since March 16. 

Still only up to about 40% of normal (1.03M/2.6M same day last year).

 

[BTW 370]

I know we've already discussed this, but with it officially announced, I'm really interested to see what the trickle-down effects are here in Midland and across the shale players in general:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2020/10/19/conocophillips-doubles-down-on-the-permian-basin-and-fracking-with-concho-acquisition/#2199744328e8

[Storm the Field 5294]

Pioneer in talks to buy Parsley.

By "in talks" I picture the elder Sheffield and his son haggling at the dinner table while Mom tries to keep the peace. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

10 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Pioneer in talks to buy Parsley.

By "in talks" I picture the elder Sheffield and his son haggling at the dinner table while Mom tries to keep the peace. 

It’s official. Pioneer paying 4.5 billion. 

[clapclapclap 9000]

https://lifehacker.com/top-10-ways-to-teach-yourself-to-code-1684250889

Edited October 23, 2020 by clapclapclap

[jeevsie 3733]

Hey, let's get this week started off right!

[billfromlaketravis 11448]

My friend bailed on land and took a job as a loan officer at mortgage company. Outstanding guy and a really good landman. Almost 20 years experience, a CPL, and he came up the hard way. Field - in house contractor - in house employee - land manager. Then his company went bankrupt earlier this year. It is what is, I hope his career move is temporary. I’d love to work with him again. 
 

Another friend was laid off at Callon a couple weeks ago. I thought he had 9 lives over there, but he finally got cut. 
 

Good luck everybody. I really mean that. 

[Goofyboy 3269]

I’m back to part time-ish starting next week for the foreseeable future. That means I’ll have anywhere from 8 hours a week to 24...

In the mean time, I’ll be working on my t-shirt company.

[HoustonFrog 368]

Yeah things are going to get worse

[jeevsie 3733]

That's what today and yesterday are making it look like.

[HoustonFrog 368]

That's what today and yesterday are making it look like.

COVID restrictions going into full effect in Europe are going to be bad. And I assume some are coming to America also. I wouldn’t be shocked to see November - February start to look more like April. Thinking many people are going to cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas travel plans, especially if not feasible to drive

[HoustonFrog 368]

COVID restrictions going into full effect in Europe are going to be bad. And I assume some are coming to America also. I wouldn’t be shocked to see November - February start to look more like April. Thinking many people are going to cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas travel plans, especially if not feasible to drive

Looks like Exxon letting go 1,900 from Houston office

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

Ouch.

[MAUFRAIS 6622]

so what do y'all think will happen with parsley's austin employees and that big ass building they're just about done building?

[Neonmoon 38129]

There are three ways to handle it. 
 

XTO method - nothing will change for years, maybe some staff reductions obviously, but then 5 years down the line, they close the office and relocate everyone to the main office. 
 

Fire Sale Method - lease is broken, office is shut down immediately, everyone must relocate to main office. 
 

Big Merger Method - long drawn out consolidation over time. 
 

 

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

Chevron to lay off about 25% of Noble Energy employees after merger.

I think about 950 people in Houston.

[billfromlaketravis 11448]

On 10/30/2020 at 10:56 AM, Neonmoon said:

There are three ways to handle it. 
 

XTO method - nothing will change for years, maybe some staff reductions obviously, but then 5 years down the line, they close the office and relocate everyone to the main office. 
 

Fire Sale Method - lease is broken, office is shut down immediately, everyone must relocate to main office. 
 

Big Merger Method - long drawn out consolidation over time. 
 

 

Put me down for the fire sale method. There’s too much bad blood when a company is acquired. Better for the company culture to just rip the band aid off and start over. 

[tx 3 putt 76881]

Fire Sale for sure