Hey Oil Barons.......

[WBT 20776]

4 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

What about feedstocks for plastics? 

The greenies seem to like their Teslas and solar panels, but they lost their damned minds when Starbucks considered phasing out plastic straws. 

Not to mention all the plastic in the teslas and pv cells

[Brisketexan 105700]

The no fossil fuels in 30 years for transpo and generation is hilarious. Can’t wait to hear other reasonable opinions of yours. 

Huh. Maybe you mean THIS opinion, which is not what you attributed to me at all. Por favor, don’t lie about my positions. It’s a bad look.

We’re going to see the percentage of generation dependent on fossil fuel continue to decline. We’re going to see the percentage of transportation miles dependent on fossil fuel continue to decline. In 50 years, we’ll still have some fossil fuel generation, and some fossil fuel transportation....but they’ll be a much smaller profile.

So, I said that in 50 years, we will STILL have fossil fuel generation and transportation use, but they’ll be a much smaller profile.

Which you straw manned into “no fossil fuels in 30 years for transpo and generation.” So....are you breathtakingly stupid, or just a lazy liar? Choose wisely - it’s your identity we’re talking about here.

Man, I don’t know why people are so fucking defensive about an observation that, again, is not particularly controversial. Long-term energy planning (and more importantly, the investment dollars that go with it) is already acting on a similar assumption. I’m not anti O&G by any means - my old man was a pipeline guy his whole life, O&G put food on my table and raised me. The trends just are what they are.

[bluto 4947]

Above $60 now

[FartingMonk 3608]

The basic understanding of on demand energy is a foreign concept to many people

[billfromlaketravis 11640]

5 hours ago, Okie State said:

The average person doesn't have the slightest clue where energy comes from. It's just there when you need it. Magic.
I'm all for exploring other options and am happy to see the company I work for doing it. We have a long transition period though.

People are environmentalists until they're inconvenienced.  

[UT_OB1 2229]

I get having trouble keeping up with electrical demands during a freeze in Texas, but how the fuck are they running low on natural gas?  I just got an email from CenterPoint asking for everyone to lower their thermostat to conserve gas so they don’t run out

[Johnny Chimpo 481]

I’ve read about multiple gas plants tripping offline in west Texas due to complications of cold temps. 

[Trey3216 15382]

Haven’t seen the short interest in natty lately, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this event causes a fund to blow up and it runs up to 4 in the coming days.  

[FartingMonk 3608]

Every refinery from deer park to Baytown is down.  Flares be wide open

[MonkeyDoughnut 10487]

10 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

I get having trouble keeping up with electrical demands during a freeze in Texas, but how the fuck are they running low on natural gas?  I just got an email from CenterPoint asking for everyone to lower their thermostat to conserve gas so they don’t run out

When it gets too cold, water and other contaminants freezes and blocks the gas at the wellheads so it stops flowing. Permian Basin is all frozen right now.

[tx 3 putt 78009]

14 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Every refinery from deer park to Baytown is down.  Flares be wide open

no shit 

[DCA_HORN 725]

It would under the current generation mix approach, sure. You assume that we won’t be able to add to available solar and wind, or tap offshore hydro, or even decide to step back into nuclear power. You assume that battery life and energy storage won’t take great leaps forward. Those are iffy assumptions at best.

I know this has been a very rare event but any chance to "chill" out and reflect about doubling our reliance on the grid?

[deadshank 24653]

On 2/14/2021 at 4:54 PM, Brisketexan said:

 

Huh. Maybe you mean THIS opinion, which is not what you attributed to me at all. Por favor, don’t lie about my positions. It’s a bad look.


So, I said that in 50 years, we will STILL have fossil fuel generation and transportation use, but they’ll be a much smaller profile.

Which you straw manned into “no fossil fuels in 30 years for transpo and generation.” So....are you breathtakingly stupid, or just a lazy liar? Choose wisely - it’s your identity we’re talking about here.

Man, I don’t know why people are so fucking defensive about an observation that, again, is not particularly controversial. Long-term energy planning (and more importantly, the investment dollars that go with it) is already acting on a similar assumption. I’m not anti O&G by any means - my old man was a pipeline guy his whole life, O&G put food on my table and raised me. The trends just are what they are.

 

Brisket,  you post too much and can’t keep track of what you post.  

 

 

[Johnny Chimpo 481]

Classic lawyer shit. Changing stories on the flies. You can’t fool some oil hands with those fancy words and hot air there fella. 

[Schulz2.0 29069]

2 hours ago, DCA_HORN said:

 

 

I know this has been a very rare event but any chance to "chill" out and reflect about doubling our reliance on the grid?

 

Wind, natural gas, coal, and nuclear have all had issues in this event (It's literally in the press release from ERCOT). Trying to say wind has caused the power issues is just incorrect. It looks like Texas got caught with their pants down.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

[DCA_HORN 725]

Wind, natural gas, coal, and nuclear have all had issues in this event (It's literally in the press release from ERCOT). Trying to say wind has caused the power issues is just incorrect. It looks like Texas got caught with their pants down.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

I'm not saying this was all caused by wind going down. Just highlighting that those "iffy assumptions" aren't so iffy.

[BTW 370]

I know there is a thread for this, but if any of you oil barons are in Midland/West Texas ... we have power/water/heat/internet (so far) and I'm happy to help.  I know many here in Midland have been without those basics for a while now.

[4HE 156]

48 minutes ago, BTW said:

I know there is a thread for this, but if any of you oil barons are in Midland/West Texas ... we have power/water/heat/internet (so far) and I'm happy to help.  I know many here in Midland have been without those basics for a while now.

Same here. I have 4 wheel drive and can come get anyone who is stuck. We have power, water, and willing to help anyone in dire straights. 

[tx 3 putt 78009]

Motiva refinery went down yesterday, due to the weather. Same for Valero port Arthur 

Edited February 17, 2021 by tx 3 putt

[FartingMonk 3608]

There will be a lot of discovery work before any plants will even be restarted.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a month before the first plant attempts to start.  A ton of plants are going to forced into turnaround this year.

[Johnny Chimpo 481]

I was talking to one of our maintenance guys about when the plants go down in winter out here in KZ. He was saying all the drain systems get all iced up and they have to go through and replace tons of gaskets. Major pain in the ass. And once they pressure up that’s when they start finding all the other leaks. Guessing they’ll be dealing with that sort of thing too. 

[BLKNSTY 289]

Anyone familiar with the nat gas companies who are somehow able to sell into this $1,000 per dth nat gas market? I mean, you have to have gas flowing that’s not sold forward, a pipeline that isn’t frozen, and the ability to transport, right?

Is it the gas processors like DCP, Enterprise, Williams, Targa or the small/midsize producers like Magnolia and Devon?


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[Storm the Field 5308]

Happy to see $61, but...

[BLKNSTY 289]

is he suggesting we subsidize Entergy, Luminant, Calpines and NRGs winterization “turnarounds”?

full CYA mode it would seem. winterize your pipes and tell ERCOT/PUC to hold some reserve capacity auctions.


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[Neonmoon 38130]

Why is that article blaming intermittent wind and solar? Then says we need to winterize natural gas and coal because it wasn’t. That is a really stupid take. This has nothing to do with Green energy or fossil fuels. This has to do with not winterizing either because leadership. You can winterize wind, you can winterize natural gas, you can winterize nuclear. 

[Eastwood 4394]

Either way, I'm happy to see the RRC slinging rocks at ERCOT. That's a good political ally to have when we all start fighting over our electric bills at the end of the month and looking for someone to blame for them.

[Cajun 11766]

On 2/14/2021 at 11:24 AM, Brisketexan said:

Oh, I know about the “no fossil fuel ever” crowd. And I actually think that eventually (and sooner than many think), we won’t be using fossil fuel for much generation or transportation (maybe 30-40 years), but for the time being, we can’t have a functioning grid without some fossil fuel generation.

I’m a forward thinking pragmatist. The “drill baby drill” crowd hates my thinking, as does the patchouli-scented greenie crowd, which tells me I’m probably on the right track.

So, you see, that’s the “Culture” I was referring to.  They don’t like your tone either.

We are not at odds here.

[billfromlaketravis 11640]

I don’t want to get Cloak Roomed, but Alex Epstein made some interesting points in an interview I listened to this evening. 
 

https://energytalkingpoints.com/texas-electricity-crisis/

[Schulz2.0 29069]

3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I don’t want to get Cloak Roomed, but Alex Epstein made some interesting points in an interview I listened to this evening. 
 

https://energytalkingpoints.com/texas-electricity-crisis/

Interesting, but not accurately capturing the actual root issues. Texas' system, from ERCOT down to the individual producers, is very flawed. There are multiple layers of redundancy and reliability that are missing. Wind and solar do lack reliability. They aren't the reason the state natural gas pipeline isn't winterized. They aren't the reason the vast majority of coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants in the state aren't winterized. They do make a good scapegoat politically in Texas, however.

[heinhorn 16]

On 2/14/2021 at 7:20 AM, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Yeah, don't know to be honest where to find that. I can say though that it is too late for this storm. There is no way to really "buy" any right now as there is none for sale. The wells started freezing off which is causing this mess, so no gas is moving in many pipelines. Combined with wind turbines freezing off as well and you better hope your power grid has ample coal plants or you're in for trouble.   All will be back to normal in a week, but this week will be rough.

MonkeyDoughnut with a very prescient post...Sunday Morning at 7:20 AM before all this shit started. 

[billfromlaketravis 11640]

At the most basic level, is it cheaper for power plants to buy natural gas or wind energy? Because we know they're going to use whatever is cheaper. 

(Yes I know wind energy is heavily subsidized by the government).) 

[Cajun 11766]

On 2/14/2021 at 4:54 PM, Brisketexan said:

 

Huh. Maybe you mean THIS opinion, which is not what you attributed to me at all. Por favor, don’t lie about my positions. It’s a bad look.


So, I said that in 50 years, we will STILL have fossil fuel generation and transportation use, but they’ll be a much smaller profile.

Which you straw manned into “no fossil fuels in 30 years for transpo and generation.” So....are you breathtakingly stupid, or just a lazy liar? Choose wisely - it’s your identity we’re talking about here.

Man, I don’t know why people are so fucking defensive about an observation that, again, is not particularly controversial. Long-term energy planning (and more importantly, the investment dollars that go with it) is already acting on a similar assumption. I’m not anti O&G by any means - my old man was a pipeline guy his whole life, O&G put food on my table and raised me. The trends just are what they are.

 

Sucks being lumped in with a small percentage of extreme whackodoodle thinking and behavior.

I get it.

[Storm the Field 5308]

EIA reports another 7.3M barrel drawdown for last week, and we've now officially bled off all of last year's oversupply. Inventory levels are back to 0% above the 5-year rolling average. 

On a sidenote, next few reports will likely be considerably off kilter due to this week's weather events.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Storm the Field

[Horns99 171]

Anyone familiar with the nat gas companies who are somehow able to sell into this $1,000 per dth nat gas market? I mean, you have to have gas flowing that’s not sold forward, a pipeline that isn’t frozen, and the ability to transport, right?

Is it the gas processors like DCP, Enterprise, Williams, Targa or the small/midsize producers like Magnolia and Devon?


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Correct & most of those guys have the majority of their gas sold forward. It’s been more of the mid marketeers & trading shops that have been able to capitalize on it


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[MonkeyDoughnut 10487]

10 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

At the most basic level, is it cheaper for power plants to buy natural gas or wind energy? Because we know they're going to use whatever is cheaper. 

(Yes I know wind energy is heavily subsidized by the government).) 

At the most basic un-subsidized level a MW of wind energy will be cheaper than natural gas, but you also better be able to have an alternative plan if the "wind" decides not to produce. Once utility (grid) battery storage is economical, wind + battery will be the largest portion of green energy.  Multiple grids including ERCOT are adding battery storage farms as we speak, but they still aren't ready for prime time for large capacity and decent price and longevity.

It will be a game changer as without these this type storage there is basically zero "storage" on the grid / transmission lines. Any demand for power must be immediately balanced by putting that much generation into the grid. Get that balance wrong and the grid literally self destructs.

[billfromlaketravis 11640]

14 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

At the most basic un-subsidized level a MW of wind energy will be cheaper than natural gas, but you also better be able to have an alternative plan if the "wind" decides not to produce. Once utility (grid) battery storage is economical, wind + battery will be the largest portion of green energy.  Multiple grids including ERCOT are adding battery storage farms as we speak, but they still aren't ready for prime time for large capacity and decent price and longevity.

It will be a game changer as without these this type storage there is basically zero "storage" on the grid / transmission lines. Any demand for power must be immediately balanced by putting that much generation into the grid. Get that balance wrong and the grid literally self destructs.

I would duck. 

Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 

It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[Schulz2.0 29069]

27 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I would duck. 

Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 

It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 

 

The lithium is from Argentina and Chile. The refining is done in China. There has been a push for bringing refining capacity of lithium and rare earth minerals to the US.

[bluto 4947]

I would duck. 
Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 
It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 
 

Or a simple google search would indicate that China is a distant 4th from the top spot of known reserves.

Where is lithium available from? With 8 million tons, Chile has the world's largest known lithium reserves. This puts the South American country ahead of Australia (2.7 million tons), Argentina (2 million tons) and China (1 million tons).

[billfromlaketravis 11640]

14 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The lithium is from Argentina and Chile. The refining is done in China. There has been a push for bringing refining capacity of lithium and rare earth minerals to the US.

So China can manufacture/refine things cheaper than any other country because of low labor costs. How does the the US become competitive? Shipping cost is my guess on how you’ll respond. 
 

Again the US goes back to a mineral that they have no control of. Chile and Argentina are stable now, but we’re talking about historically unstable countries. 
 

I know everyone has their own economic/political interests tied up in this. I don’t think the lithium /rare earth mining can scale up in the US. For one there’s probably not enough under US soil, and it’s much cheaper to mine in other countries. And oh yeah strip mining is very nasty business. Once a well is drilled and put on production, you might not notice it driving by. You’ll notice the top of a hill getting cut off. 

Figure out a way to store large quantities of natural gas near power plants and let’s be done with this shit.

 

 

[billfromlaketravis 11640]

36 minutes ago, bluto said:

Or a simple google search would indicate that China is a distant 4th from the top spot of known reserves.

Where is lithium available from? With 8 million tons, Chile has the world's largest known lithium reserves. This puts the South American country ahead of Australia (2.7 million tons), Argentina (2 million tons) and China (1 million tons).

Throw a link in there. 

[Schulz2.0 29069]

57 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Throw a link in there. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium

Look under the production tab. It cites the US Geological survey.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10487]

11 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I would duck. 

Where is the lithium coming from? It’s China. 

It’s pretty simple to me. Figure out how to make natural gas work or transfer the deed of your soul from Saudi Arabia to China. 

 

Its not going to be lithium, that's getting replaced by magnesium, calcium, zinc and aluminum with magnesium being leading primary candidate.  One of its major benefits is its abundance and availability.

This is not pipe dream decades from use tech, we're talking months to years.

[The Royal We 3072]

It’s not an either/or proposition and constantly seeing people framing it as such is a beating.
 

With EV usage increasing it’s going to take everything - increased wind/battery storage, more combined cycle nat gas plants and the existing nuke capacity currently in operation (preferably all winterized). Combine that with grid improvements and somehow reform ercot and maybe we won’t end up with 50fucking% of the state without power at the same time again. 

[The Royal We 3072]

6 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Its not going to be lithium, that's getting replaced by magnesium, calcium, zinc and aluminum with magnesium being leading primary candidate.  One of its major benefits is its abundance and availability.

This is not pipe dream decades from use tech, we're talking months to years.

This too. Battery tech is rapidly improving.
 

PE that was previously all upstream E&P (EnCap) piling in to battery storage indicates to me the smart money sees this coming as well. 
 

I’m heavily invested in E&P and don’t think it’s going away any time soon, but burying your head in the sand and acting like we need to proceed with nothing but fossil fuels and all renewables are worthless is wrongheaded IMO. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10487]

7 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

It’s not an either/or proposition and constantly seeing people framing it as such is a beating.
 

With EV usage increasing it’s going to take everything - increased wind/battery storage, more combined cycle nat gas plants and the existing nuke capacity currently in operation (preferably all winterized). Combine that with grid improvements and somehow reform ercot and maybe we won’t end up with 50fucking% of the state without power at the same time again. 

This here... one caveat I'll add is all the wealthy people putting solar panels on their houses and businesses are currently hurting the process, not helping it because of how the rules are written.  They are pushing more of the cost of the infrastructure on those without because that cost is in the MW used piece. So they basically the less fortunate people are paying more to maintain and upgrade the grid for the times the more fortunate people might need it.  Also in places rules are written where the grid MUST purchase excess power that they put onto the grid. This sets up an incredibly unreliable generation source that logistically and practically becomes a nightmare for grid operators to balance.

[BabaBooey 131]

On 2/17/2021 at 1:41 PM, BLKNSTY said:

Anyone familiar with the nat gas companies who are somehow able to sell into this $1,000 per dth nat gas market? I mean, you have to have gas flowing that’s not sold forward, a pipeline that isn’t frozen, and the ability to transport, right?

Is it the gas processors like DCP, Enterprise, Williams, Targa or the small/midsize producers like Magnolia and Devon?


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I work on a pipeline here in the Houston area that was able to capitalize this week on high prices. We winterized all our instrumentation and took the necessary steps to keep from freezing up. Centerpoint did freeze up a few times at their regulator stations downstream of us which caused higher flow rates, but nothing major. Our line isn't the biggest (size and volume wise) compared to the big dogs (Kinder/HPL/etc) but we managed to feed a lot of city gates this week.   

[Johnny Chimpo 481]

1 hour ago, BabaBooey said:

I work on a pipeline here in the Houston area that was able to capitalize this week on high prices. We winterized all our instrumentation and took the necessary steps to keep from freezing up. Centerpoint did freeze up a few times at their regulator stations downstream of us which caused higher flow rates, but nothing major. Our line isn't the biggest (size and volume wise) compared to the big dogs (Kinder/HPL/etc) but we managed to feed a lot of city gates this week.   

It’s not the size of the pipe, it’s how you use it. 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2759]

It’s not the size of the pipe, it’s how you use it. 

Is this a Steel Shank sock?

[FartingMonk 3608]

On 2/17/2021 at 2:07 AM, tx 3 putt said:

Motiva refinery went down yesterday, due to the weather. Same for Valero port Arthur 

@tx 3 putt you're in the compressor business aren't you?  If so you're gonna need a wheelbarrow for all that money you're gonna make this year.  Just about everyone I've talked to this week has said they have more than one compressor that is beyond fucked.  Anything that didn't have a glycol system in it and just used cooling tower water froze and broke.  It's a mess.  Most people's cooling towers completely ate shit.

[tx 3 putt 78009]

7 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

@tx 3 putt you're in the compressor business aren't you?  If so you're gonna need a wheelbarrow for all that money you're gonna make this year.  Just about everyone I've talked to this week has said they have more than one compressor that is beyond fucked.  Anything that didn't have a glycol system in it and just used cooling tower water froze and broke.  It's a mess.  Most people's cooling towers completely ate shit.

 

all rotating equipment. everyone is running their equipment ragged