Jump to content
Required Reading for any Longhorn ×

Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

Posted Images

KYHorn

KYHorn 17201

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

They’re already there at the small independent level. The beauty is that it doesn’t matter - prices will continue to rise. 

Can you explain that a bit more? Because so much supply was shut down for good?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
KYHorn

KYHorn 17201

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Natty at $3.65, highest since late 2018. 

Meanwhile, European NG prices are at a 13 year high.

 

Damn, that make me think about Cheniere Energy (LNG). I bought lots (relatively) of shares back in college at around  $2.xx. Sold in the 50's I believe for a house down payment. Now it's up into the 80's.

Edited by KYHorn
  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tex48

Tex48 840

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Ah. @KYHorn because we cannot possibly get back to 2019 domestic supply levels.  We’ve drilled our best locations in the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Mid Con, and had by the start of Covid. We are on a very long road of domestic supply decline, and I predict it will be faster than people think. 

We had also become the swing producer of the world, and I do not think the world has another source that can easily replace our decline.  Also, demand is sharply rising, much faster than what the experts thought. 

So at this point, does GOM start picking up steam again or with ESG stuff and the amount of investment GOM requires is that just not going to happen?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11528

Posted
Posted
On 7/2/2021 at 7:23 AM, KYHorn said:

Damn, that make me think about Cheniere Energy (LNG). I bought lots (relatively) of shares back in college at around  $2.xx. Sold in the 50's I believe for a house down payment. Now it's up into the 80's.

Cheniere had the right vision/plan, but the wrong CEO. It's good to see them become one of the few success stores. 

Good buy. Very decent sell. I wish I had done something similar. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hornmpa96

hornmpa96 2621

Posted
Posted
On 7/2/2021 at 11:13 AM, Dr. Beeper said:

Ah. @KYHorn because we cannot possibly get back to 2019 domestic supply levels.  We’ve drilled our best locations in the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Mid Con, and had by the start of Covid. We are on a very long road of domestic supply decline, and I predict it will be faster than people think. 

We had also become the swing producer of the world, and I do not think the world has another source that can easily replace our decline.  Also, demand is sharply rising, much faster than what the experts thought. 

Just curious - You don’t think OPEC+ can make up the difference?

with respect to GOM, I don’t see any desires for true greenfield projects. It’s just too damn expensive without consistent high prices. If infrastructure is relatively close and can be tied into, then GOM still works.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5302

Posted
Posted

Some OPEC+ drama currently underway that's worth watching. What was supposed to be a fairly routine meeting to conclude on Friday has now spilled over into today. They were expected to announce an increase in production of 400K barrels/day per month through the rest of the year. Big disagreement right now between UAE and KSA (and everyone else) over extending the current cooperation agreement through the end of 2022 (currently expires in April) and how big UAE's slice of the pie should be.

Why this matters mainly is that if they can't reach a consensus, the current cuts remain in place (i.e. no +400K next month) and a short-term price spike seems likely. That's the upside scenario. Downside risk is that UAE decides to say fuck it, we're out, OPEC destabilizes and a price/production war starts up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
torre

torre 1286

Posted
Posted (edited)

Excerpts:

(not an oil baron,  just have royalty interests)

 

OPEC+ was set to reconvene for crisis talks via videoconference at 2 p.m. London time Monday. However, after a two-hour delay, Reuters, citing two sources, said that the meeting had been postponed.

The reports were later confirmed by a communique from OPEC which said that “the date of the next meeting will be decided in due course.” Bloomberg also reported that it meant OPEC+ would continue with production quotas at current levels.

“For us, it wasn’t a good deal,” UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Sunday. He added that while the UAE was willing to support a short-term increase in oil supply, it wants better terms through 2022.

OPEC+, which is dominated by Middle East crude producers, agreed to implement massive crude production cuts in 2020 in an effort to support oil prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic fuel demand shock.

Led by Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the UAE, OPEC+ has since initiated monthly meetings in a bid to navigate production policy.

It has resulted in a rare public stand-off between the UAE and its long-time regional ally Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader. The dispute comes as energy market participants anxiously await policy direction that is likely to shape crude markets into next year.

Responding to the reports, John Kilduff, a founding partner at Again Capital, said that the “Opec solidarity dissolved today.”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/05/opec-meeting-saudi-arabia-uae-in-focus-over-oil-output-policy.html

Edited by torre
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tex48

Tex48 840

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m not sure what you mean. 

Basically we've been exporting a ton of crude bc the differential in price between our grades and a lot of foreign has been high.  If domestic demand becomes high enough, are the diffs going to become small enough to eliminate export opportunities to Asia and Europe.  I randomly thought of that last night.  

Edited by Tex48
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tex48

Tex48 840

Posted
Posted
On 7/10/2021 at 11:08 AM, Tex48 said:

Basically we've been exporting a ton of crude bc the differential in price between our grades and a lot of foreign has been high.  If domestic demand becomes high enough, are the diffs going to become small enough to eliminate export opportunities to Asia and Europe.  I randomly thought of that last night.  

Ok so I got my question answered today.  The narrowing diff between Brent and WTI has caused Europe to quit buying Sept WTI and they are instead buying more West African grades.  This just means more WTI will be going to Asia because freight rates are still crazy low.   

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5302

Posted
Posted

I haven't looked at federal permitting in a long time, so found this a bit surprising.

 

Quote

 

Approvals for companies to drill for oil and gas on U.S. public lands are on pace this year to reach their highest level since George W. Bush was president, underscoring President Joe Biden’s reluctance to more forcefully curb petroleum production in the face of industry and Republican resistance.

 

The Interior Department approved about 2,500 permits to drill on public and tribal lands in the first six months of the year, according to an Associated Press analysis of government data. That includes more than 2,100 drilling approvals since Biden took office January 20.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5302

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, jeevsie said:

@Dr. Beeper I need you to pump some sunshine on this negative trend this week.

Meh. Seem to have found a floor at $70.50 and closed out the day flat at $71.65. I would feel worse if we'd fallen below $70 heading into the weekend.

"Worst week in months" lopped a whole $3.50 off of WTI.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23584

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Oil prices are solid, fundamentals look good for oil companies. Oil stocks still in the dumps though. 

Lulz. Why should this year be  any different. I don't give a fuck what their dividends have been, holding oil majors seems like a 10 yr kick in the balls. Set aside individual stocks of which there are many with fabulous returns, the major indexs all dominate the large oil guys. I'm sure the next 10 years will be better though, as the world rapidly migrates to electric cars and even greater consumption of renewables. 

 

image.thumb.png.e30abf2a884e7490675274b8ada33a79.png 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19262

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, 52-80 said:

front month crude futures still cant bust 72 and been on a very very slow trend. 

XOP probably has a quicker upside

spoke too soon. september contracts ripping through 73.  i should be bearish more often.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...