Hey Oil Barons.......

[The Royal We 3072]

56 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Bet he was dipping too.

It had to be said...

[Storm the Field 5302]

Welp, actual NAPE convention was a ghost town but can confirm that O&G land guys still drink like Irish poets, especially when someone else is picking up the tab. Gonna be a long while until I have a taste for brown liquor again.

I honestly think at some point in the near future NAPE will get cut back down to just once a year, eventually move to a smaller venue and slowly fade away. Almost everyone agrees it's just a boondoggle and an excuse to abuse the company/firm expense account. Might as well just officially make it "Oil and Gas Booze Fest" and quit kidding ourselves. The important talks happen at the happy hours and steakhouse dinners, not GRB.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Storm the Field

[Storm the Field 5302]

7 day losing streak and down 9% on the week. And yet I feel optimistic. Delta wave/panic seems to possibly be peaking, and if $62 ends up being a bottom, that's really not all that bad and sets up for a solid Autumn.

[Storm the Field 5302]

Natty blowing up today after inventory report came in way lower than expected. Up over 7% to $4.21. Highest price since January 2018.

[bluto 4942]

Natty blowing up today after inventory report came in way lower than expected. Up over 7% to $4.21. Highest price since January 2018.

Wtf with my OKE diving today

[Storm the Field 5302]

-1.25% is a dive? That's about average for an energy stock in today's trading action.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Storm the Field

[LonghornJones 837]

There will likely be some platforms directly impacted from the developing hurricane approaching Louisiana. Could see a temporary jump in price if its not already baked in.

[Storm the Field 5302]

Natty at $4.35. Apparently I went to asleep and woke up in 2014.

[sidis 9832]

6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Natty at $4.35. Apparently I went to asleep and woke up in 2014.

well it would be nice if energy transfer and bp's stock would start fucking acting like it.

[sidis 9832]

1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Like 2014?  Not a great year starting about August. And stocks suffered. 

Or because of gas?  BP and ETP are massive companies with a lot of factors that would affect their stock price. BP is predominantly oil. ETP is a massive gathering and transportation company obtaining, largely, tolls. Confusing statement. 

Oh for God’s sake Rex, you couldn’t have possibly taken that comment seriously. Jesus. 

[sidis 9832]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m sorry. I shouldn’t bother with dumbass comments. 

Liiiike say…looking at a post that quoted another post referencing NG prices reminding him of being in 2014 when they spent the majority of the year prior to the November opec meetings well above $4…where they haven’t really been since…and then that post stating tongue in cheek that I wish companies’ stock prices that averaged 2-3x what they are now in 2014 would return to those same prices…and viewing it as an opportunity to come and fail at an attempt to be irrelevantly pedantic?

I could see it honestly. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by sidis

[torre 1286]

Did you all see this article  ?   Any merit ?   My interest is being royalty owner.  (excerpts)

 

Oil prices could be setting up for a major rally, one strategist says.

Though the energy sector has cooled off in recent months, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude’s price chart just flashed a rare signal, Miller Tabak’s Matt Maley told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.

“Crude oil has seen what’s called a golden cross on its weekly chart,” the firm’s chief market strategist said.

A golden cross occurs when an asset’s shorter-term moving average crosses above its longer-term moving average and is broadly seen as a signal of further upside.

In oil’s case, “that’s only happened three times since the beginning of this century and each of those three times has been followed by a very strong further rally in crude oil, anywhere from 20%-50%,” Maley said.

“If oil continues to rally here, energy stocks should continue to bounce as well and I think that’s a group where I think people can do really well for the last third of the year.”

Investors should consider adding some downside protection to their portfolios as the market enters the seasonally difficult September-December trading period, BK Asset Management’s Boris Schlossberg said in the same interview.

“I’d call this the Terminator market. It’s always coming back. It refuses to die,” Schlossberg said. “But ... I think there is certainly some potential for danger here.”

With bond yields creeping up as inflationary pressures persist, the odds of a correction in high-valuation stocks are also rising, said Schlossberg, his firm’s managing director of FX strategy.

“I think the single best bet here for downside protection is to simply buy the 380-360 QQQ put spread because that’ll give you protection to the downside on Nasdaq, which is the most volatile of the indices,” he said.

That represents a bet that Invesco’s QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq, will stay below $380 a share through the trade’s November expiry. For the trade to generate its maximum profit, QQQ would have to fall below $360 a share. QQQ was trading around $373 midday Thursday.

“If it works, it’s going to give you a very decent protection, at least about 5% to the downside,” Schlossberg said.

“The higher those bond yields creep up, the more likely the Nasdaq is going to correct because the Nasdaq is basically operating on the assumption of free money,” he said. “The moment that money becomes even a tiny bit more expensive, valuations are going to start to contract. So, to me, that’s probably the single biggest catalyst to the downside as we go into the fall season.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/26/oil-has-only-done-this-twice-in-20-years-it-could-mean-a-50-percent-rally.html

Edited August 28, 2021 by torre

[DCA_HORN 725]

well it would be nice if energy transfer and bp's stock would start fucking acting like it.

Well energy transfer is a piece of shit and bp is a renewables company.

[DCA_HORN 725]

I don’t know technicals. But it has merit from my standpoint because I study the fundamentals. I’d be surprised if we only increased 20% from here, but Covid could fuck everything up. I’d actually be a little surprised if we didn’t exceed a 50% increase from here. 
Where are your royalties?  

I'm calling it now. We will be at $100 by July 4th.

[torre 1286]

9 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I don’t know technicals. But it has merit from my standpoint because I study the fundamentals. I’d be surprised if we only increased 20% from here, but Covid could fuck everything up. I’d actually be a little surprised if we didn’t exceed a 50% increase from here. 

Where are your royalties?  

Upshur County - low producing.

Awhile back,  I dm'd you about the future of that area.   Thanks again for your replies.

[torre 1286]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Any Haynesville or Cotton Valley drilling on Upshur minerals that you own?  Regardless, your royalties may not remain low producing with a serious oil boom. 

Not exactly sure,  will check.   Thanks for the info ! 

[billfromlaketravis 11523]

On 8/20/2021 at 2:10 PM, Storm the Field said:

Welp, actual NAPE convention was a ghost town but can confirm that O&G land guys still drink like Irish poets, especially when someone else is picking up the tab. Gonna be a long while until I have a taste for brown liquor again.

I honestly think at some point in the near future NAPE will get cut back down to just once a year, eventually move to a smaller venue and slowly fade away. Almost everyone agrees it's just a boondoggle and an excuse to abuse the company/firm expense account. Might as well just officially make it "Oil and Gas Booze Fest" and quit kidding ourselves. The important talks happen at the happy hours and steakhouse dinners, not GRB.

The key is someone else is picking up the tab.

Otherwise they’ll drink two Lone Stars and bounce. 

Edited August 29, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[Hook1997 5402]

On 8/27/2021 at 10:20 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

I don’t know technicals. But it has merit from my standpoint because I study the fundamentals. I’d be surprised if we only increased 20% from here, but Covid could fuck everything up. I’d actually be a little surprised if we didn’t exceed a 50% increase from here. 

Where are your royalties?  

That would be nice.  I see multiple people that work in the oil and gas industry though mostly downstream, post on social media non stop about how prices are too high right now and it’s Biden’s fault.   It blows my mind.

[Storm the Field 5302]

Holy crap. $4.60 natty.

[52-80 19246]

the OG gods have been good recently.  was too optimistic going big into oil in size previous month...but had lots of success dinking and dunking last few weeks

[Storm the Field 5302]

Break out the bell-bottoms and throw on some Zeppelin, we're back in the 70's.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Storm the Field

[52-80 19246]

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Break out the bell-bottoms and throw on some Zeppelin, we're back in the 70's.

 

[Satoshi 129]

Cross posting from the Bitcoin thread. Any Surly Oil Barons attend this?

 

[BTW 370]

A few weeks ago, I got sent a pitch deck from a group that is setting up mobile crypto-mining operations inside shipping containers and running them off electricity generated from flare gas out in the field using satellite internet as a datalink.  

[LonghornJones 837]

Nerds.

[jeevsie 3740]

Ready source of LN2 for cooling too. Sign me up!

[Neonmoon 38130]

10 hours ago, BTW said:

A few weeks ago, I got sent a pitch deck from a group that is setting up mobile crypto-mining operations inside shipping containers and running them off electricity generated from flare gas out in the field using satellite internet as a datalink.  

People have been doing this for years. 

[Updawg 2286]

People have been doing this for years. 

Is it working or no?

I’ve been seeing more stories lately. It’s interesting

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 minute ago, Updawg said:

Is it working or no?

I’ve been seeing more stories lately. It’s interesting

Yep it works. Miners get cheap gas. Driller gets to sell flare, albeit cheap. 

[Storm the Field 5302]

Holy natural gas!

[52-80 19246]

14 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Holy natural gas!

and not natural at all! i think somebody/bodies got flushed out of their position

[The Royal We 3072]

Damn, I did not expect to see nat gas prices this high in '21...

I'll take it!

[Storm the Field 5302]

As one might have expected with refineries shut down all over Louisiana, EIA reported a huge drawdown in gasoline and distillate inventories this week, but lower than expected crude draw. Refinery utilization was only 82% of total capacity.

All of last year's supply overhang is gone and then some. Crude inventories are now 6% below the 5-year average. Gasoline 4%. Distillates 12% and propane/propylene 20%.

On a sidenote, natty continues its climb and is knocking on the door of $5.

[52-80 19246]

~winter henry hub futures already breached $5

[Tex48 840]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

It only needs to go up to $11.67 to hit the bullshit boe6 metric

What is that?

[Satoshi 129]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-09/china-releases-oil-from-its-reserves-to-combat-high-prices?sref=5dj0X2VO
 

[BTW 370]

1 hour ago, Tex48 said:

What is that?

The metric actually has nothing to do with the price of either item.  Instead, one barrel of oil has about the same energy content as 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas.  In the last 10-15 years, large volumes of natural gas have been relatively easier to extract than barrels of oil, so the price differential has diverged from the energy content differential.  So to return to that metric from a price standpoint, either demand for natty has to skyrocket, we have to get WAY better at getting oil out of the ground, or something along those lines.

[52-80 19246]

natty is ludicrous.  October contracts are not $5.5

[52-80 19246]

WTI fucking blasting out of the gates.  72 and rising

[Storm the Field 5302]

$5.50 natty. Let's just go full 2008 and send an army of degenerate landmen up to Tarrant/Johnson/Wise to start leasing up subdivisions. Time to get the Barnett rocking again!

[Eastwood 4394]

$5.50 natty. Let's just go full 2008 and send an army of degenerate landmen up to Tarrant/Johnson/Wise to start leasing up subdivisions. Time to get the Barnett rocking again!

I was Parker County, but sure.

[Fudge Nuggets 19224]

Yeah, fuck the environment.  Yeeeeee haaaaaaw.

[Guest Lobo]

Pioneer has made a pretty bold assertion on their ESG/Zero movement this week.  I'll leave it to the experts to debate. 

In other news (good news), Southwest Airlines bringing back the non-stop from Austin to Midland/Odessa.  

Weeknights (starting 22 March) from 8-9pm.  Coming back to ABIA 6:30-7:30a.  

[BTW 370]

18 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Pioneer has made a pretty bold assertion on their ESG/Zero movement this week.  I'll leave it to the experts to debate. 

In other news (good news), Southwest Airlines bringing back the non-stop from Austin to Midland/Odessa.  

Weeknights (starting 22 March) from 8-9pm.  Coming back to ABIA 6:30-7:30a.  

They took the direct flight away within a year of me moving from Austin to Midland.  I have been hoping for this day for a long, long time.  

[billfromlaketravis 11523]

On 9/15/2021 at 11:05 AM, Storm the Field said:

$5.50 natty. Let's just go full 2008 and send an army of degenerate landmen up to Tarrant/Johnson/Wise to start leasing up subdivisions. Time to get the Barnett rocking again!

I think a lot of those folks are selling used cars now. 

Edited September 16, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[Fudge Nuggets 19224]

28 minutes ago, BTW said:

They took the direct flight away within a year of me moving from Austin to Midland.  I have been hoping for this day for a long, long time.  

You’re about to get transferred again.

[Storm the Field 5302]

Seen some commentary from CEO's lately talking about the new model for O&G going forward. Based on what PXD and CVX have said:

1. Investors don't want to see any capex for exploration or new production. Focus is solely on retiring debt, maximizing cash flow and paying highest possible dividends. 

2. ESG has a role in #1, but it's primarily due to the poor decisions and wild price volatility seen over the last 7+ years. Nobody wants to get burnt again throwing money at marginal projects right before another price crash. Need "years of stable oil prices" to attract investors. 

3. Because of #1 and #2, even companies well-positioned to spend money on increasing production won't do so until investors indicate that's what they want to see. This will likely lead to higher energy prices for years to come.

[Neonmoon 38130]

On 9/15/2021 at 1:20 PM, Eastwood said:

On 9/15/2021 at 12:05 PM, Storm the Field said:

$5.50 natty. Let's just go full 2008 and send an army of degenerate landmen up to Tarrant/Johnson/Wise to start leasing up subdivisions. Time to get the Barnett rocking again!

I was Parker County, but sure.

I was Tarrant 

4 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think a lot of those folks are selling used cars now. 

Not yet! Lol 

[Hook1997 5402]

On 9/15/2021 at 12:20 PM, Eastwood said:

On 9/15/2021 at 11:05 AM, Storm the Field said:

$5.50 natty. Let's just go full 2008 and send an army of degenerate landmen up to Tarrant/Johnson/Wise to start leasing up subdivisions. Time to get the Barnett rocking again!

I was Parker County, but sure.

I started a little after that in Gonzales County, now I’m just next door working in DeWitt County.  I’ve been surprised it hasn’t picked up more in that area yet.  

[52-80 19246]

14 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, fuck the environment.  Yeeeeee haaaaaaw.

ESG , as is and has always been used in real life , is a feckless #metoo signaling gesture, amounting to nothing more than a "Windows compatible" sticker, and effectively serves as a grift to transfer money to any entity or cause with the tag.

Every company touts their ESG compliance.  What's changed in their operations?  absolutely nothing.

Half the new investment funds are launched are ESG centric.  Here's what's in BlackRock's ESG ETF "ESGU" -- [this fund] seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. companies that have positive environmental, social and governance characteristics as identified by the index provider:  Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, JP Morgan, Home Depot, Coke, 3M, Comcast, Exxon (lol), Honeywell, fucking Raytheon, McDonalds, etc...  Sounds familiar?  well its basically the fucking SPY.