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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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MoJames

MoJames 8256

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

You know exactly what it is. If you say you don’t, you’re lying, or aren’t advanced enough on the topic to have a worthwhile convo on it. Like Mo. 

Also, mind putting together your vast knowledge on a timetable for the upcoming crisis so you can come back and say I told you so to everyone on this thread?

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MoJames said:

Also, mind putting together your vast knowledge on a timetable for the upcoming crisis so you can come back and say I told you so to everyone on this thread?

Rex called his shot at the beginning of Covid and put his money where his mouth is. I wish I could have pulled off a similar deal.

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10357

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

now i understand why in commodities trading natural gas is referred to as the widowmaker.

 

Saw this putting in terms of barrel of oil.. jump last night would put at equivalent to $250 barrel.  There is absolutely no reason the price should be this high. Unquestionable being pushed by some large funds causing margin calls on smaller funds... pushing further.... waiting for large drop back down....

2021-10-06_10-41-29.png.b5a1ad851606a9777f9717f5f75ca1a3.png

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted

Last time gas was at this price was during the fall from a 5 year run of high prices. '08 tanked it and it's taken 13 years to see that price again. The subsequent oil boom kept enough residual gas flowing to keep the price suppressed. It'll be interesting to see if we get another multi-year run out of this.

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DCA_HORN

DCA_HORN 725

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

 

Saw this putting in terms of barrel of oil.. jump last night would put at equivalent to $250 barrel.  There is absolutely no reason the price should be this high. Unquestionable being pushed by some large funds causing margin calls on smaller funds... pushing further.... waiting for large drop back down....

2021-10-06_10-41-29.png.b5a1ad851606a9777f9717f5f75ca1a3.png

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Horns99

Horns99 166

Posted
Posted
 
Saw this putting in terms of barrel of oil.. jump last night would put at equivalent to $250 barrel.  There is absolutely no reason the price should be this high. Unquestionable being pushed by some large funds causing margin calls on smaller funds... pushing further.... waiting for large drop back down....
2021-10-06_10-41-29.png.b5a1ad851606a9777f9717f5f75ca1a3.png

The price is being driven by the price of TTF & JKM right now. The big guys are getting massive margin calls, but the majority of that is from TTF / JKM. As always the winter weather will determine what happens from here.


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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10357

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Horns99 said:


The price is being driven by the price of TTF & JKM right now. The big guys are getting massive margin calls, but the majority of that is from TTF / JKM. As always the winter weather will determine what happens from here.


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Most definitely its just surprising how much Henry is following suit.  I guess at some point its just another risk item.  It's causing crazy power plant heat rate hedging issues for sure, especially considering all early indication for the US is a milder winter.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5302

Posted
Posted

WTI topped $80 this morning. Currently treading water in the 79.90-80.10 range.

Had dinner with some guys from a major Permian operator a few nights ago talking about how disciplined everyone has been from a capital standpoint, but it gets harder to maintain when you hit $80. Lotta trigger fingers out there starting to get itchy. 

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2225

Posted
Posted

@Dr. Beeper sort of related, my neighbor works in R&D at Albemarle.  He says most of their money has gone towards Li for batteries, not much expansion/growth on the catalyst side, and they may even sell off some (all?) next year. Kind of crazy.  It seems like some people think we are just going to stop using oil and gas products over night.l, no problem. 

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17201

Posted
Posted

Any recommendations for investing at this point? I had a bunch of USO stock from its plunge at the start of the pandemic, but took profits a few weeks ago. Y'all think these things are priced in at this point or do you think there's something to be gained somewhere? Thanks.

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3072

Posted
Posted

If you are bullish on long term natural gas, look at CRK.  It's already been on a hell of a run, up to $9.30 from ~$5.20 in August.  But the float is very thin due to Jerry Jones owning the majority of the shares.

They've got great assets and ends are meeting like a MF'er with nat gas at $5.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRK

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tequila

tequila 319

Posted
Posted
I know this was referenced earlier but this attitude is astounding. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Administration-Begs-OPEC-For-More-Oil.amp.html

This President is extremely weak. Honestly I don’t mind this, but we merely exchanged one buffoon for another. I cannot believe he is doing this. 

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52-80

52-80 19262

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I know this was referenced earlier but this attitude is astounding. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Administration-Begs-OPEC-For-More-Oil.amp.html


This President is extremely weak. Honestly I don’t mind this, but we merely exchanged one buffoon for another. I cannot believe he is doing this. 

repeated the working-with-OPEC playbook yesterday

 

I'm less astonished at the stupidity of the sentiment itself, than I am at the stupidity of deciding to broadcast that sentiment. 

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3504

Posted
Posted

Biden comments are a big meh.  They're not aimed at people (myself included) that have major positions in companies like

XOM, MPC, DEV, SLB, HAL, BKR, LPI, CPE, ET and other private O&G enterprises.  Most Americans don't have a clue what's happening in this space beyond pump prices.

You can easily find windbag comments from every administration in the last 60 years about how they're for cheap oil.  

Last Prez said he was gonna make $20 crude permanent.

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KYHorn

KYHorn 17201

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 10/21/2021 at 8:37 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

I know this was referenced earlier but this attitude is astounding. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Administration-Begs-OPEC-For-More-Oil.amp.html


This President is extremely weak. Honestly I don’t mind this, but we merely exchanged one buffoon for another. I cannot believe he is doing this. 

Why not release oil from the stockpile? Trump was smart to fill it to capacity during the massive drop caused by the lockdown. I can only think of 2 reasons: not wanting to discourage domestic production and exploration (lol), or wanting the stockpile in case something goes south with China relations. Otherwise, when would be a better time?

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

Biden comments are a big meh.  They're not aimed at people (myself included) that have major positions in companies like

XOM, MPC, DEV, SLB, HAL, BKR, LPI, CPE, ET and other private O&G enterprises.  Most Americans don't have a clue what's happening in this space beyond pump prices.

You can easily find windbag comments from every administration in the last 60 years about how they're for cheap oil.  

Last Prez said he was gonna make $20 crude permanent.

Ding Ding Ding 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5302

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Why not release oil from the stockpile? Trump was smart to fill it to capacity during the massive drop caused by the lockdown. I can only think of 2 reasons: not wanting to discourage domestic production and exploration (lol), or wanting the stockpile in case something goes south with China relations. Otherwise, when would be a better time?

Reason 3: Would be a drop in the bucket and knock WTI price down maybe a $1 or so for a week or so at best.

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3504

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Reason 3: Would be a drop in the bucket and knock prices down maybe a $1 or so for a week or so at best.

So, you're saying from four to treefiddy?....

 

If you are in this space (I suspect most are who post or lurk here),  we should hope crude stays $70-80 for a while instead of $90-?.

Geo, US, and inside oil players politics/decisions will get more chaotic with oil approaching $100. 

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Johnny Chimpo

Johnny Chimpo 479

Posted
Posted

The only thing that all of these weak ass attempts to lower oil prices do is the following: 

1) further convince opec they have us over a barrel 

2) illustrate the tightness of the market to major speculative players (trading houses, hedge funds, etc.

3) ensure that prices will continue to stay high and slowly rise further. 
 

there’s some analysis floating around by JP Morgan among others that in a month or two, Cushing will be at tank bottom levels meaning it will be effectively out of shippable crude. 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11531

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

The only thing that all of these weak ass attempts to lower oil prices do is the following: 

1) further convince opec they have us over a barrel 

2) illustrate the tightness of the market to major speculative players (trading houses, hedge funds, etc.

3) ensure that prices will continue to stay high and slowly rise further. 
 

there’s some analysis floating around by JP Morgan among others that in a month or two, Cushing will be at tank bottom levels meaning it will be effectively out of shippable crude. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-21/u-s-oil-stockpiles-are-plunging-while-energy-crisis-drives-up-demand

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