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936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Demand is up 24% in the past month?

There’s no direct line correlation but absolutely demand is WAY up over the last 20 months and increasingly so. This is what a lot of us have been arguing for well over a year. The roads in Dallas - starting last fall - are increasingly as crowded as I ever remember them. And this is all against the backdrop of significantly dwindling supply across the globe and in the US. While domestic supply is up YOY this is simply because DUCs have been completed - and the DUC inventory is way, way down. Also what you are seeing with the price is a rebound of the Omicron Thanksgiving mini-crash. 

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3072

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11 hours ago, tequila said:

Hearing pipe is going to be in tight supply 2H this year, to the tune of “doesn’t matter if you have a rig lined up and a frac scheduled, if you can’t get intermediate none of it matters”


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Damn.  I hadn't heard this yet.  My dad was in the OCTG business for 35+ years and retired a little early when it fell apart around 2018ish.  They've had a really bumpy ride the last 5 years with consolidation/liquidation and now it's all coming home to roost.

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23 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

More referring to the rate of increase.

There’s no doubt, but since when have we seen rational rates of increase or decrease, especially in this industry?  

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10356

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Completely messed up and looked like issue on NYMEX and prices started disconnecting between NYMEX and ICE for a bit.

Basically European weather model changed dramatically believing its about to get much colder over next two weeks. We're not seeing a huge change ourselves, but that shock at the expiration of Feb futures seemed to provide a bull stampede.

 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11522

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2 hours ago, MAROON said:

XOM moving HQ to their campus in North Houston.  Expect high dollar house market in The Woodlands to be hot...as well as spots at Carlton Woods and Bluejack.

I'd be careful and not buy too much house. My mentor took a bath when he retired and moved back to Fort Worth. 

Additionally, it seems like many of the younger XOM employees commute from The Heights/Garden Oaks/Oak Forest. Pretty easy commute on the Hardy Toll Road. 

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3608

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6 hours ago, MAROON said:

XOM moving HQ to their campus in North Houston.  Expect high dollar house market in The Woodlands to be hot...as well as spots at Carlton Woods and Bluejack.

They had all but moved everyone a few years ago.  This was just the official announcement.  My best friend from high school is in house lawyer for them.  They pretty much told them 3 years ago.  You're moving to the woodlands or go ahead and show yourself out

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52-80

52-80 19246

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1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

I’ve heard there’s a huge lack of pipe right now and other things?  I mean oil is how high and the added rig count in Texas is no where near what you would think it would be 5 years ago if prices were this high.

south austin's mom absorbed all the pipe

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4 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

I’ve heard there’s a huge lack of pipe right now and other things?  I mean oil is how high and the added rig count in Texas is no where near what you would think it would be 5 years ago if prices were this high.

Companies are finally listening to Wall St. and are much more austere. See Chevron post above. 

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used2b

used2b 249

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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/us-oil-prices-top-90-a-barrel-for-the-first-time-since-2014.html

 

Quote

U.S. oil crossed above $90 on Thursday for the first time since 2014 as demand for petroleum products surges while supply remains constrained.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, gained more than 2% to trade as high as $90.23 per barrel. The last time prices were above the $90 mark was October 2014. International benchmark Brent crude rose 1.7% to trade at $91. Brent topped $90 on Jan. 26.

 

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pearlandhorn

pearlandhorn 3274

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I work in the offshore vessel industry and we’re only in the GoM. Wages for mariners are getting silly. Thankfully we have cost escalation in our contracts with the supers so we can go back to them for increases in day rates whenever our costs get out of hand. Captain wages have gone up 35%-45% over the last year. Same for engineers. A lot of these offshore guys just left the industry during the downturn and shrink in GoM activity due to wages being deflated. 
 

The lack of deep water supply vessels is drastically low due to companies filing for bankruptcy and stacking vessels for the last 5 years while ours have kept humming due to our long term contracts. Costs to activate these stacked vessels is about a million per year out of service. Add in the time it’ll take to activate to service the surge in demand for the vessels and you’ll be entering new build pricing territory by Q2 2023. 
 

This is the first uptick in the industry that I’ve been a part of (I’m only 33). I entered the industry at the beginning of the downturn so I’ve never seen the rocket ship before. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

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1 hour ago, pearlandhorn said:

I work in the offshore vessel industry and we’re only in the GoM. Wages for mariners are getting silly. Thankfully we have cost escalation in our contracts with the supers so we can go back to them for increases in day rates whenever our costs get out of hand. Captain wages have gone up 35%-45% over the last year. Same for engineers. A lot of these offshore guys just left the industry during the downturn and shrink in GoM activity due to wages being deflated. 
 

The lack of deep water supply vessels is drastically low due to companies filing for bankruptcy and stacking vessels for the last 5 years while ours have kept humming due to our long term contracts. Costs to activate these stacked vessels is about a million per year out of service. Add in the time it’ll take to activate to service the surge in demand for the vessels and you’ll be entering new build pricing territory by Q2 2023. 
 

This is the first uptick in the industry that I’ve been a part of (I’m only 33). I entered the industry at the beginning of the downturn so I’ve never seen the rocket ship before. 

Who builds most of the supply vessels?  In the past most deepwater drill ships were built by places like Samsung Heavy Industries in Korea and some shipyards in Singapore but I’m wondering if there are some stocks we should be buying up now ahead of the supply vessel new build boom.

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pearlandhorn

pearlandhorn 3274

Posted
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2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Who builds most of the supply vessels?  In the past most deepwater drill ships were built by places like Samsung Heavy Industries in Korea and some shipyards in Singapore but I’m wondering if there are some stocks we should be buying up now ahead of the supply vessel new build boom.

There’s a difference. The drill ships I believe you are referring to are indeed built mainly in Korea for transocean (example). Some are built in Europe, Singapore. To work in US waters for supers, PSVs must be built in the US and fly US flag. Supermajors only want US flagged vessels providing support to their leased drill ships from Transocean. Federal law requires it as well (Jones Act). The vessel company also must only employ US mariners for work in the GoM which is why our costs are a lot higher than say a company operating in West Africa. They can crew with guys from the Philippines and pay them half of what they pay US mariners.  

Most PSVs that work in the GoM are build in southern port areas (some in Louisiana, Alabama, Florida). Four that we have built are all identical and were built at BAE shipyard in Jacksonville. 
 

One thing a lot of people don’t realize is that if all these cruise ships were built in the US, the cost of cruises would be astronomical given that the vessel would be US flagged, have to employ ALL US citizens, and pay tax based on their home ports. Because they are built outside the US and flagged to say…Panama, they can hire whoever they want and not have to pay US tax. Companies typically flag their vessels in the most tax advantageous country. But to have your main port of call in the US requires a shitton more costs. But that’s all the supermajors in the GoM will contract with and that’s all they can contract with if they want to work in the GoM.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

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Yeah, I know why deepwater drill ships are built overseas which you pointed out.  I figured PSVs were probably built locally since the cost is much less than a drill ship and all the other reasons you pointed out (admittedly I didn't know all of them).  I appreciate you answering the question on who builds them.

Out of curiosity and I understand if you don't want to answer, but do you work for any of SEACOR, Tidewater or Chouest?  Just a yes or no would be sufficient, no details required on which one.

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pearlandhorn

pearlandhorn 3274

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49 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, I know why deepwater drill ships are built overseas which you pointed out.  I figured PSVs were probably built locally since the cost is much less than a drill ship and all the other reasons you pointed out (admittedly I didn't know all of them).  I appreciate you answering the question on who builds them.

Out of curiosity and I understand if you don't want to answer, but do you work for any of SEACOR, Tidewater or Chouest?  Just a yes or no would be sufficient, no details required on which one.

I don’t have a problem answering any questions really. No, I don’t work for SEACOR, Tidewater, or Chouest. They are our biggest competitors though and I know many folks who do work for them. Our industry is so niche that we have dealings and interactions with our competitors often. Hornbeck is another big competitor of ours. My company isn’t publicly traded.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

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37 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

I don’t have a problem answering any questions really. No, I don’t work for SEACOR, Tidewater, or Chouest. They are our biggest competitors though and I know many folks who do work for them. Our industry is so niche that we have dealings and interactions with our competitors often. Hornbeck is another big competitor of ours. My company isn’t publicly traded.

Cool.  Much appreciated.

 

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On 2/4/2022 at 3:33 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Time to start fishing for jobs at other companies.  Nothing like $90+ oil to get oil co's on a hiring spree with no regard to salary budgets.

It won’t happen this time. At least not right away. 

17 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

This is the first uptick in the industry that I’ve been a part of (I’m only 33). I entered the industry at the beginning of the downturn so I’ve never seen the rocket ship before. 

There will definitely be no rocket ship, and certainly offshore. 

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Patricio Swayze

Patricio Swayze 17058

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I’ve heard there’s a huge lack of pipe right now and other things?  I mean oil is how high and the added rig count in Texas is no where near what you would think it would be 5 years ago if prices were this high.

The company I work for hasn’t had this issue. However, sometimes finding a goddamn wireline truck of all things has caused delays.
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Not a Sock

Not a Sock 2342

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6 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

It won’t happen this time. At least not right away. 

There will definitely be no rocket ship, and certainly offshore. 

Yeah. What is the estimated losses investors and creditors took in O&G since 2015? It’s got to be well north of 200 billion, companies are going to have to get 6 years of devastating losses off their books first. And OPEC has show. They can crush the US O&G back down with 40bbl so short of a black swan event I don’t see anyone giving O&G the credit card again.

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