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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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1 hour ago, Not a Sock said:

Yeah. What is the estimated losses investors and creditors took in O&G since 2015? It’s got to be well north of 200 billion, companies are going to have to get 6 years of devastating losses off their books first. And OPEC has show. They can crush the US O&G back down with 40bbl so short of a black swan event I don’t see anyone giving O&G the credit card again.

Oh they’ll give it again and probably sooner than we all think. Highest performing sector in ‘21 and could be in ‘22. Massive supply crunch coming (already apparent and here, but ever-worsening). Companies have learned to live within their means and within ESG.  All of these factors are ripe for significant capital coming in. I don’t think it happens in a rocket ship fashion, but I definitely think there will be significant investment appetite. 

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My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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On 2/9/2022 at 9:30 AM, Storm the Field said:

NAPE is upon us once again. Tank's gonna be sputtering on fumes by the time I wake up on Friday.

I flew back home just now. 

On 2/9/2022 at 10:39 AM, Lagunamadre said:

I'm already exhausted. 

Part of this was spurred by the fact I shit the bed this morning. Like literally. 

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19 hours ago, tequila said:


I put on a bunch of hedges Fri afternoon, so probably over $100 by week’s end.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeesh. I had to hedge because I put some debt on it, but put the widest 3-ways I could. And it’s still a dumb trade. Hedging in a backwardated market that clearly should be in contango makes me want to puke. 

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7 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

NAPE was a blast this year, IMO. Felt like a classic 2012-14 affair. Parties all over downtown.

Yeah it was fun. But 8-10 years ago I was younger and could hang. Fuck getting old. 

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Guest Lobo

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Would that suspension include diesel?  the tax on that is about 15% higher than on that of unleaded.  

Unless of course this means they're going retro and bringing back Leaded fuel.  Biden is old school like that   

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

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All that fiscal discipline talk of the past 2 years is definitely starting to crack. Rig count has gone up by 32 over just the past 2 weeks. Haynesville is all the way back to pre-COVID levels while Permian and Eagle Ford have recovered about 75% each. 

RRC permit applications are through the roof. I just did a search covering the past 30 days and got 137 pages of results.

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Blotto

Blotto 23491

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-21/marathon-s-huge-louisiana-oil-refinery-rocked-by-explosion-fire

Quote

Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s oil refinery near New Orleans exploded into flames on Monday, threatening to crimp fuel supplies and raise pump prices at a time of already rampant inflation.

The company’s Garyville, Louisiana, plant is one of the nation’s largest and a key supplier of gasoline, diesel and other fuels. No injuries were reported and Marathon said it was assessing the incident that started around 9:30 a.m. local time. 

If any damages are significant enough to halt processing units at the Garyville complex, fuel supplies may be stretched, given rising gasoline demand and the fact that more than 10% of refining capacity in the region already is idle for repairs and other maintenance work. 

Retail gasoline prices have climbed 7.5% this year, adding to 2021’s 46% advance, according to AAA. The last time prices were this high was the summer of 2014, when international oil prices were above $100 a barrel.

Hopefully this is a nonevent. We dont really need additional stress on gas prices.

Edited by Blotto
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2217

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3 hours ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

So with the skirmish going on and sanctions being implemented, does that mean we will no longer be importing from the Rooskies?

 

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I thought we were energy independent? 

We hardly get anything from them as it is. 

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52-80

52-80 19147

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11 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

7%. Not much. And with the price going up, it’s already started the process of bringing up our own supply.  

industry will get some positive sentiment finally.  hopefully.

few years ago we had seismic survey done in our neighborhood for a geothermal campaign and people complained and protested because it was tangentially related to hydrocarbon.  seismic = energy = oil = bad. 

bulk of the gas import comes from russia.

maybe the idiots will think twice now.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

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12 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

7%. Not much. And with the price going up, it’s already started the process of bringing up our own supply.  

I guess we disagree that 7% is a small number when it comes to oil, but you are correct, we will just increase production or buy more from SA

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4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I guess we disagree that 7% is a small number when it comes to oil, but you are correct, we will just increase production or buy more from SA

I know you’re focused on US consumption needs, but we’re fine. The bigger issue is we will have to be fine at substantially higher prices, which has very very little to do with the small amount of crude we import from Russia and very much to do with the global nature of the commodity. 

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Amos Moses

Amos Moses 795

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Just heard an interesting analysis on the radio - the situation now with respect to pricing is essentially spring 2020 in reverse. Then, prices didn’t increase until the storage issue began to turn around. Now, the rapid increase will likely not abate until economies start to slow. $170-180 was the guess.

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