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936horn

By 936horn
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Amos Moses said:

Just heard an interesting analysis on the radio - the situation now with respect to pricing is essentially spring 2020 in reverse. Then, prices didn’t increase until the storage issue began to turn around. Now, the rapid increase will likely not abate until economies start to slow. $170-180 was the guess. emoji15.png

I could have made so much money on that -$30 oil. If only I’d had enough  inflatable pools, but those became impossible to get at the same time!

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ATexanAbroad

ATexanAbroad 627

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I have a question for the smarter people in the room:

 

At what point do I sell my oil plays that I have ridden to this high the past two years since negative oil prices. Oil is always cyclical and my question is just how much higher does the price go and at what point does supply catch up and bring the price back down? Thank you in Advance.

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Posted
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6 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

I have a question for the smarter people in the room:

 

At what point do I sell my oil plays that I have ridden to this high the past two years since negative oil prices. Oil is always cyclical and my question is just how much higher does the price go and at what point does supply catch up and bring the price back down? Thank you in Advance.

Supply cannot catch up without the next shale revolution technological breakthrough or WWIII stunting demand. I see us staying higher for the next several years on both commodities. Gun to my head, 10 years, but who knows after 1 really. 

I’m in the same boat as you on one deal I own. I don’t know you’re situation, but I wouldn’t be in a hurry to sell unless A&D markets come back. They haven’t, and you won’t be able to get near what you think in a sale. 

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52-80

52-80 19215

Posted
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I'm seeing the service companies and suppliers lag the producers lagging the crude pride.  This whole Russia thing is going to put more weight on the energy-independence narrative (again), which might induce the e/p to open up the pursebooks.  I would take profit from the XOM/CVX/XLE/XOP of the world and put it in RIG/OIH.

 

just a hunch

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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I'm holding on to my XOM because I got it for $45 a share and the dividend ratio can't be beat at that price.

Honestly, looking at all the mid and small caps, looks like this scenario was already priced in. Jumping in now is an investment in "higher for longer."

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7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

I'm seeing the service companies and suppliers lag the producers lagging the crude pride.  This whole Russia thing is going to put more weight on the energy-independence narrative (again), which might induce the e/p to open up the pursebooks.  I would take profit from the XOM/CVX/XLE/XOP of the world and put it in RIG/OIH.

 

just a hunch

Not a bad strategy. There is a definitely a Russian War (of Aggression) premium on crude that will go away once Putin is Mussolini’d by Gazprom and Rosneft executives. But we won’t go below $90.

Still, I don’t see a rapid increase in rig count. We will continue to steadily increase as we have been, but there’s too much volatility for too many operators to say, “hey it’s 2011 again, let’s get the fuck after it.”  Capital still is glaringly lagging the price increase. 

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7 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I'm holding on to my XOM because I got it for $45 a share and the dividend ratio can't be beat at that price.

Honestly, looking at all the mid and small caps, looks like this scenario was already priced in. Jumping in now is an investment in "higher for longer."

I’ll never forget when I told @The Royal Wehere I passed on the opportunity to buy XOM at $28. Hurts to miss that one. 

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52-80

52-80 19215

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14 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Not a bad strategy. There is a definitely a Russian War (of Aggression) premium on crude that will go away once Putin is Mussolini’d by Gazprom and Rosneft executives. But we won’t go below $90.

Still, I don’t see a rapid increase in rig count. We will continue to steadily increase as we have been, but there’s too much volatility for too many operators to say, “hey it’s 2011 again, let’s get the fuck after it.”  Capital still is glaringly lagging the price increase. 

yeah, basically i think the operators have gotten the uplift from the price but the servicers havent.  rig trades at 1x sales, and only 6x cash flow, and theyve already worked down their debt.  so even if their business activity stays flat, they have some multiple headroom to grow into. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19211

Posted
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22 hours ago, Eastwood said:

I'm holding on to my XOM because I got it for $45 a share and the dividend ratio can't be beat at that price.

Honestly, looking at all the mid and small caps, looks like this scenario was already priced in. Jumping in now is an investment in "higher for longer."

That's the only reason I'm still holding my XOM (which is lagging CVX by miles the last week).  My dividend ratio is in the 11% range.

One day the wizards on Wall Street will remember XOM produces oil and gas and that $110 oil is pretty good for their business model.  Until then I get paid to wait.

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WBT

WBT 20649

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 3/2/2022 at 12:56 PM, Porterhouse said:

I’ll never forget when I told @The Royal Wehere I passed on the opportunity to buy XOM at $28. Hurts to miss that one. 

Got in at $33 when I felt like it was safely off the covid bottom.     /humblebrag

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Cajun

Cajun 11722

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On 3/2/2022 at 6:48 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Bought a house in Okie City for my mom to live in back in 2019.  I told my wife our biggest risk with that was the price of oil crashing, which would kill the Okie City market.

I guess that problem is solved for now.

Fify

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1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:


To dislocate North American prices from global prices. I haven’t seen a single us e&p company say anything other than they’re going to keep producing flat, regardless of prices.

That’s not how this works. It’s a global commodity for a reason. When we can produce enough for our own needs, you might have a point, but it’s still a bad one. 

Production is increasing domestically. Much of that is DUCs coming online, but rig count is slowly and steadily increasing, and there’s nothing like an energy crisis and the potential of freezing Germans / WWIII shift from making moronic investors parrot ESG and energy transition to walking back their sentiments and wanting to put capital back in the industry. With prices this high, E&P companies are going to ramp where they can with little fanfare. I wouldn’t expect any pronouncements. And I personally know many companies that are getting after it like a mofo. 

Edited by Porterhouse
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4 hours ago, MAUFRAIS said:


they’re

Actually not grammatically correct in my context. If you’re serious, Bryan is a really good guy. Don’t know Scott. I know they are both exceedingly smart people. 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11521

Posted
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8 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

At what price and when does Biden block US exports?  

Yeah, I don’t like you. The ability to even export took decades. US producers had to fight for years and years with one hand behind their backs. 
 

Write your congressman to repeal federal and state gasoline taxes. 

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3072

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I didn't buy nearly as deep as some of you, but bought XOM at an avg of $54.84 and VDE at $60.69.  My XOM buys were in Jan and March of '21.

Just remembered that I also bought XOM in March of '20 @ $32.69 and sold it a month later for $44.76 thinking that Covid was going to keep fucking with us.  I had forgotten about that until @Porterhouse brought it up and I went back to look at my cost basis.  Furk. 

Luckily I had more conviction the 2nd time around and took bigger bites.  The all time high for XOM is $104 back in June of '14.  When are you holders thinking you would take profits?  Or is the dividend too juicy to even think about it?

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2 hours ago, The Royal We said:

I didn't buy nearly as deep as some of you, but bought XOM at an avg of $54.84 and VDE at $60.69.  My XOM buys were in Jan and March of '21.

Just remembered that I also bought XOM in March of '20 @ $32.69 and sold it a month later for $44.76 thinking that Covid was going to keep fucking with us.  I had forgotten about that until @Porterhouse brought it up and I went back to look at my cost basis.  Furk. 

Luckily I had more conviction the 2nd time around and took bigger bites.  The all time high for XOM is $104 back in June of '14.  When are you holders thinking you would take profits?  Or is the dividend too juicy to even think about it?

Pussy

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3499

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$4.13 buy on WPX Energy; merged with DVN.  Everybody should own DVN for the variable div alone.  Still room to run.

$38.70 on XOM.      $33.34 on MPC.     $49.18 on XLE.

Slowly building in SLB, HAL, BKR.

Have been extremely overweight in Energy and looking to pare down at some point.  I don't see this completely playing out until at least 2023.

This part of portfolio is mitigating most of the rest.  GLTA. 

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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Posted (edited)

As an old old retired oil man I have yet to hear a discussion on how EV's are the absolute answer to saving the planet.  If 300 million are charging their cars every night in the garage where is the energy coming from that makes that possible?  And don't get me started on the used retired batteries.

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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3 hours ago, LebongJames said:

In XOM for quite a few shares. What do we think the outlook for them looks like right now? 

If you hold them and I don't buy them in the morning you will be fine.  If I buy them, you better sell shortly as my luck has been cursed in determining market sentiment.

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3499

Posted
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3 hours ago, LebongJames said:

In XOM for quite a few shares. What do we think the outlook for them looks like right now? 

All about your personal situation.  Maybe 15% trailing stop that decreases as stock price goes up?

I'm looking for exits myself, but it's too early...maybe 10 -14 months. 

We are in some volatile times.  This may be on of very few places to be positive in the market as long as war is in the picture.

Crude on the trajectory that it's on will bring negatives as well.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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1 hour ago, BevoSwag said:

As an old old retired oil man I have yet to hear a discussion on how EV's are the absolute answer to saving the planet.  If 300 million are charging their cars every night in the garage where is the energy coming from that makes that possible?  And don't get me started on the used retired batteries.

I don’t believe you 

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