Hey Oil Barons.......

[MoJames 8257]

3 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

No idea. Hadn’t thought about it. It changes zero with my post. Saudi’s what?

No. It is relevant after he and those two Secretaries have shit on the industry for two solid years. I’m largely apolitical and was extremely critical of Trump here when he was tweeting at OPEC to produce more, in attempt to lower prices. Recent events will make me a lot of money, as is generally the case with Democratic presidencies. But that triumvirate of morons have done major damage to us all. 

I guess this is similar to me being apathetic towards people that were overtly anti-vax and subsequently end up on a vent. So I guess I can feel you on this with you working in O&G and me working in Medicine.

Also, Saudi's

[UT_OB1 2227]

@Porterhouse man I like your takes and enjoy reading your comments. But this thread has for the most part remained non CR even though it is a topic that could easily veer that way. Leave the political trash talking and name calling for the CR board. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

@Porterhouse man I like your takes and enjoy reading your comments. But this thread has for the most part remained non CR even though it is a topic that could easily veer that way. Leave the political trash talking and name calling for the CR board. 

I’ve already said Biden couldn’t have done much of anything to lower the fast price increase. I’m pretty even handed politically. This benefits me. I am sorry about going CR here and will stick to not talking about it. It is relevant with the demonization in press conferences about oil companies not drilling and completing wells on existing permits, as if they’re in business as an altruistic venture to help Americans with lower gasoline prices, and haven’t slogged it out through 7 shitty years. I’m not going to CR to state that; it belongs here. But I’ll stop…now. 

[tx 3 putt 77934]

14 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

That's a great question and what the average American misses in the "energy independent" talk. America could pretty much be self sufficient if all of our refineries were retrofitted for light sweet (shale) oil. The problem is that's a multibillion dollar and time consuming process which could only be done if the majors believed the light sweet was here forever, I think most of them feel like the shale production will always be the swing oil but will never have the economics to be our base, so for now our base will continue to be the heavier ME/Canadian/Mexican oil that we are currently set up to refine. With decisions like that with decades long implications, it would be hard to trust any gov subsidies that could be taken away 4 years later. So short of us nationalizing the refineries or major technological developments in shale development, probably not going to change any time soon. 

 

if this ever happens, old putt .....

[Armybrat 41001]

Well, I ain’t complaining about my smalltime royalty checks. 

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Well, I ain’t complaining about my smalltime royalty checks. 

You won’t see the impact until your checks later this month, and then even moreso in April. 

[Armybrat 41001]

The gas portion has been pretty crazy too.

[ATexanAbroad 627]

16 hours ago, MoJames said:

I guess this is similar to me being apathetic towards people that were overtly anti-vax and subsequently end up on a vent. So I guess I can feel you on this with you working in O&G and me working in Medicine.

Also, Saudi's

What if youre not anti vax, you just dont trust the govt/china/pharma (specifically in regards t covid) and you still end up on a vent?

Edited March 9, 2022 by ATexanAbroad

[Storm the Field 5305]

Just now, ATexanAbroad said:

What if youre not anti vax, you just dont trust the govt/china/pharma

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

What if youre not anti vax, you just dont trust the govt/china/pharma (specifically in regards t covid) and you still end up on a vent?

[MoJames 8257]

14 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

What if youre not anti vax, you just dont trust the govt/china/pharma (specifically in regards t covid) and you still end up on a vent?

It is your right to avoid medical advice.

[SuperSport 1333]

USO taking it today, no lube.

[tbone_ 14259]

USO taking it today, no lube.

OPEC?

[bluto 4947]

Hell of a wrestling match between commodities vs rest of market 

[52-80 19280]

no news triggered today's vicious correction.  maybe a lot of profit taking from traders or some cascading liquidation?

[SuperSport 1333]

17 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

OPEC?

I guess, it's been tracking the commodity price pretty closely.

[Storm the Field 5305]

WTI down $14.50

RBOB gasoline down 40 cents.

For 99.9999% of the decade+ I've spent in the industry, those would signal catastrophic news. 

[bluto 4947]

So what’s it signaling now? 🤨

[Lagunamadre 1975]

19 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Yes, it sure would help with the Bakken crude transportation. ND light sweet has been selling for a lot less than WTI because of the added rail & trucking costs, from what I’ve been told. The spread has usually ranged $5-$10 per barrel between the two.

We've (company I work for) got a large mineral footprint across the Bakken, we are averaging about a $6.50 differential from WTI for the past 12 months. For reference our Permian diffs are about $2 and Eagle Ford $3. So your getting about $3/4 less per barrel in the Bakken than you would in Texas. Plenty of pipeline capacity out of ND with DAPL, just a function of traveling a lot further to get to a refinery, more tolls to pay. 

[Guest]

So with oil down 10% today, I'm sure we'll see gas prices drop 10% by the end of the week, right?

[Storm the Field 5305]

11 minutes ago, bluto said:

So what’s it signaling now? 🤨

That things got overheated and now traders are overreacting to UAE signaling they will argue for OPEC to produce additional barrels?

[Storm the Field 5305]

To flesh that out a little:

When WTI increases by $30 over the course of 13 days and there are single days where the price jumps nearly $10, a wild, one-day swing downwards isn't all that shocking.

In "normal" times, a 15% drop over the course of a single day would only be caused by the announcement of something like a global pandemic or the onset of a price war with countries flooding the market. 

IMO.

[Armybrat 41001]

42 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

We've (company I work for) got a large mineral footprint across the Bakken, we are averaging about a $6.50 differential from WTI for the past 12 months. For reference our Permian diffs are about $2 and Eagle Ford $3. So your getting about $3/4 less per barrel in the Bakken than you would in Texas. Plenty of pipeline capacity out of ND with DAPL, just a function of traveling a lot further to get to a refinery, more tolls to pay. 

Truck & rail companies have been making out like bandits for sure.

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Truck & rail companies have been making out like bandits for sure.

Ours isn't.  We're charging premiums for LTL platforms, but we're also just not picking up drayage like we used to.  Just not enough work to go around given raw material supply chain gluts.  We service mainly retail and when there's choke points in wholesale/completion cross-docking...we suffer..  It's starting to level out though but it was dicey for awhile there to find enough mileage for 1000 drivers.  I also shitcanned one this morning for (NO/CR) protesting).  So his mileage should make another 2 drivers very happy this month.  

Edited March 9, 2022 by Lobo

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Lobo said:

Ours isn't.  We're charging premiums for LTL platforms, but we're also just not picking up drayage like we used to.  Just not enough work to go around given raw material supply chain gluts.  We service mainly retail and when there's choke points in wholesale/completion cross-docking...we suffer..  It's starting to level out though but it was dicey for awhile there to find enough mileage for 1000 drivers.  I also shitcanned one this morning for (NO/CR) protesting).  So his mileage should make another 2 drivers very happy this month.  

I don’t know how anyone is in this business with the unreliability and liability of truckers. 

[Guest Lobo]

Well that's trucking for you.  It's just a constant churning of reliability an unreliability. 1000 drivers, hundreds of trailers.  Shit gets weird.  But somehow, America gets its shit.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Well that's trucking for you.  It's just a constant churning of reliability an unreliability. 1000 drivers, hundreds of trailers.  Shit gets weird.  But somehow, America gets its shit.

It’d be like owning a restaurant or bar. Let someone else do it. 

[Guest Lobo]

I wish I could.  But the long term is rewarding and we can do some good.  Even fuel price fluctuation can be absorbed.  It's the choke points on origination, drayage, and manufacturing hiccups that really screw shit up.  And we had to shitcan one guy over his politics.  

[Guest]

11 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So with oil down 10% today, I'm sure we'll see gas prices drop 10% by the end of the week, right?

Gasoline set by individuals. Real estate costs and individual enterprise are bigger factors. 

[Storm the Field 5305]

Gasoline futures have given up $0.66 over the past 72 hours. Can't wait to go get some cheap gas tomorrow!

[52-80 19280]

8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Gasoline futures have given up $0.66 over the past 72 hours. Can't wait to go get some cheap gas tomorrow!

 

[Guest]

15 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Gasoline futures have given up $0.66 over the past 72 hours. Can't wait to go get some cheap gas tomorrow!

My favorite part is when oil spikes to $125, that magically means every station around town sets the price to $3.99 the next day. I guess it would be $4.00 if oil went to $126

As well, when oil drops 15%... nothing. 

And didn't oil reach an all-time high of $150 in 2008, yet our gas prices are higher now?

[52-80 19280]

Brokerage IBKR, and some commodity exchanges like the CME and ICE changed their margins requirements on crude related products.

This means less borrowing allowed, for the participants who were heavily leveraged when trading these products.  That may have been what killed the volatility in the crude prices the last few days (after that fucker shot up and down 60 pts a day), as people who were caught on the wrong side of the trade had to liquidate

[Guest]

3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

My favorite part is when oil spikes to $125, that magically means every station around town sets the price to $3.99 the next day. I guess it would be $4.00 if oil went to $126

As well, when oil drops 15%... nothing. 

And didn't oil reach an all-time high of $150 in 2008, yet our gas prices are higher now?

$147 and it was very short lived. And gas prices were likely higher back then but I can’t remember. I’m not sure why anyone is confused about gasoline retail sales. They are by and large not controlled by oil companies. They are controlled by private owners. There are many factors like the real estate costs of a gas station, and what an owner must pay for gasoline. Perhaps they are slow to lower prices one oil / RBOB go down because they’ve already bought gasoline at a high price and are waiting to go through that supply before lowering.  I have no issue with it and if I did I wouldn’t buy gasoline at a particular station. 

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

$147 and it was very short lived. And gas prices were likely higher back then but I can’t remember. I’m not sure why anyone is confused about gasoline retail sales. They are by and large not controlled by oil companies. They are controlled by private owners. There are many factors like the real estate costs of a gas station, and what an owner must pay for gasoline. Perhaps they are slow to lower prices one oil / RBOB go down because they’ve already bought gasoline at a high price and are waiting to go through that supply before lowering.  I have no issue with it and if I did I wouldn’t buy gasoline at a particular station. 

Except it's everywhere. Literally every station I passed today was at $3.99 -- that was four on my run out of the house today. And these prices went up with the spike. So if it's due to that fact they just bought it, then they all four must have bought it on the same exact day. 

And when it was at $147 per barrel, gas prices were not higher than they are today. We have not set a record for oil, but just set one for gasoline costs.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Except it's everywhere. Literally every station I passed today was at $3.99 -- that was four on my run out of the house today. And these prices went up with the spike. So if it's due to that fact they just bought it, then they all four must have bought it on the same exact day. 

And when it was at $147 per barrel, gas prices were not higher than they are today. We have not set a record for oil, but just set one for gasoline costs.

It was $4.11 in ‘08. Inflation-adjusted it was higher back then. Regardless there are other factors that go into gasoline than just crude prices. There’s a strong correlation but it’s not direct. 

I’m throwing out reasons why retailers would be slow to lower price.  I would be very very slow to lower my prices, but I don’t own gas stations and never would. But you’re bitching over a few cents per gallon. Why?  

[Cajun 11764]

On 3/9/2022 at 10:25 AM, Porterhouse said:

You won’t see the impact until your checks later this month, and then even moreso in April. 

Yeah, mine lag at least 4 months, sometimes 6.

[Okie State 3860]

Now we get to hear all the bitching about 'windfall profits' again. Nobody gives a fuck when cracks are negative and everyone is getting laid off. God given right to have cheap gas while paying $10 for a Starbucks coffee.

[52-80 19280]

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

Now we get to hear all the bitching about 'windfall profits' again. Nobody gives a fuck when cracks are negative and everyone is getting laid off. God given right to have cheap gas while paying $10 for a Starbucks coffee.

Remember when oil companies were gouging people at $40/bbl and losing money 

[Goofyboy 3313]

I’d be happy if we got rid of any remaining subsidies.

[Eastwood 4394]

Now we get to hear all the bitching about 'windfall profits' again. Nobody gives a fuck when cracks are negative and everyone is getting laid off. God given right to have cheap gas while paying $10 for a Starbucks coffee.

The majority of companies outside of the supermajors had to beg, borrow, and steal just to get to today and are, wisely, using the current prices for paying down debt and some of the public companies are returning value to shareholders instead of huge Capex increases. If this were any other industry, it would be praised as good business.

Let broader society squawk to their hearts' content. They benefited from almost a decade of depressed prices while trying to tear the whole industry down without any meaningful effort towards replacing it with a viable alternative, viable jobs with similar pay for those displaced, and looked the other way when hundreds, if not thousands of small towns in plays across the nation had their economies gutted.

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Cajun said:

Yeah, mine lag at least 4 months, sometimes 6.

That’s weird. Shouldn’t be more than 1-3 months unless they’re newly-drilled wells and you’re not in pay yet. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Goofyboy said:

I’d be happy if we got rid of any remaining subsidies.

Subsidies like IDC/ICC tax advantages?  Lulz. Yeah let’s become Germany. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

 

 

The majority of companies outside of the supermajors had to beg, borrow, and steal just to get to today and are, wisely, using the current prices for paying down debt and some of the public companies are returning value to shareholders instead of huge Capex increases. If this were any other industry, it would be praised as good business.

Let broader society squawk to their hearts' content. They benefited from almost a decade of depressed prices while trying to tear the whole industry down without any meaningful effort towards replacing it with a viable alternative, viable jobs with similar pay for those displaced, and looked the other way when hundreds, if not thousands of small towns in plays across the nation had their economies gutted.

 

Yep. I don’t give a single fuck about anyone’s increased gasoline prices. It was a really shitty 6-year period. Like the worst. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

The majority of companies outside of the supermajors had to beg, borrow, and steal just to get to today and are, wisely, using the current prices for paying down debt and some of the public companies are returning value to shareholders instead of huge Capex increases. If this were any other industry, it would be praised as good business.

Let broader society squawk to their hearts' content. They benefited from almost a decade of depressed prices while trying to tear the whole industry down without any meaningful effort towards replacing it with a viable alternative, viable jobs with similar pay for those displaced, and looked the other way when hundreds, if not thousands of small towns in plays across the nation had their economies gutted.

 

Agree with the first paragraph 

The second paragraph is histrionic victimhood 

[Eastwood 4394]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Agree with the first paragraph 

The second paragraph is histrionic victimhood 

How so? Have you ever been laid off from a job due to the market-wide conditions of a commodity, faced with the decision of either having to start from scratch, taking a huge pay cut in the process, or roll the dice on competing with a completely over-saturated job market with the hopes that things get better in the near future? And I've worked both renewables and oil and gas. Renewables paid less than half for the same work. And while you're wondering how you're going to make ends meet over the long term, you have to read articles about how great it is that the oil and gas industry is in shambles and how people yearn for the day that oil companies are no longer needed without taking into account the people and communities that depend on those jobs.

I've stated this in here before: I believe in climate change. I think we absolutely have to move away from fossil fuels. But coal country showed what happens when you ditch the product and don't account for the people who depend on the demand of that product. We need to not only work on transitioning our energy needs away from fossil fuels, but transitioning the people and communities who depend on the oil and gas market for their livelihood. I've been through three boom and bust cycles. I tried transitioning out of the industry, but nothing matches the pay and benefits. I am all out of sympathy for those who cheer on the death of the oil and gas industry in one decade only to cry about high gas prices the next. Come up with a transition plan that doesn't devastate entire communities and rural America more than it already has and I'm all on board.

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

How so? Have you ever been laid off from a job due to the market-wide conditions of a commodity, faced with the decision of either having to start from scratch, taking a huge pay cut in the process, or roll the dice on competing with a completely over-saturated job market with the hopes that things get better in the near future? And I've worked both renewables and oil and gas. Renewables paid less than half for the same work. And while you're wondering how you're going to make ends meet over the long term, you have to read articles about how great it is that the oil and gas industry is in shambles and how people yearn for the day that oil companies are no longer needed without taking into account the people and communities that depend on those jobs.

I've stated this in here before: I believe in climate change. I think we absolutely have to move away from fossil fuels. But coal country showed what happens when you ditch the product and don't account for the people who depend on the demand of that product. We need to not only work on transitioning our energy needs away from fossil fuels, but transitioning the people and communities who depend on the oil and gas market for their livelihood. I've been through three boom and bust cycles. I tried transitioning out of the industry, but nothing matches the pay and benefits. I am all out of sympathy for those who cheer on the death of the oil and gas industry in one decade only to cry about high gas prices the next. Come up with a transition plan that doesn't devastate entire communities and rural America more than it already has and I'm all on board.

Yes, I have. I used to work in oil and gas for 15 years. I literally made the decision to start from scratch, and while wondering how I’m going to meet ends meet, I read articles about oil and gas. Some were positive, some were negative, some were indifferent. I wasn’t emotionally wrecked because some people wanted to transition away from fossil fuels. I didn’t take it personally, even though it literally was personal to me. It is a fact of life. Change is inevitable. There will always be something new. You either adapt or die (or become the old man yelling at clouds). The internet decimated Newspapers and reporters. Automation decimated the middle class. The loom decimated the sewing industry. The main difference in this case is the transition is happening over a long period time. 

The world needs energy. Whether that be fossil fuels, renewables, or nuclear. EV are more efficient than ICB. Renewable energy is a better product to sell than fossil fuels. That doesn’t mean we don’t need fossil fuels and they won’t be here forever. We are in a constant transition, and people like us will be lost in the wash. You either adapt or not. Our jobs will not be replaced, especially not with similar paying jobs. Again, look at other industries. The highly paid newspaper reporter isn’t getting paid the same to post online. The middle class factory worker isn’t making a sweet wage making cars anymore. 

I stated it was histrionic because lower gas prices over the past decade had nothing to do with anyone tearing down fossil fuels or huge regulations prohibiting their exploration. It’s solely due to the shale boom and subsequent Russia/ME price war. I stated it was victimhood because you were assigning blame to some mythical cabal that is rooting against you and causing you to earn less money. You, me, and thousands others, are just a small part in the constant change 

I am not complaining about high gas prices. 

 

[Gatorubet 30411]

How so? Have you ever been laid off from a job due to the market-wide conditions of a commodity, faced with the decision of either having to start from scratch, taking a huge pay cut in the process, or roll the dice on competing with a completely over-saturated job market with the hopes that things get better in the near future? And I've worked both renewables and oil and gas. Renewables paid less than half for the same work. And while you're wondering how you're going to make ends meet over the long term, you have to read articles about how great it is that the oil and gas industry is in shambles and how people yearn for the day that oil companies are no longer needed without taking into account the people and communities that depend on those jobs.
I've stated this in here before: I believe in climate change. I think we absolutely have to move away from fossil fuels. But coal country showed what happens when you ditch the product and don't account for the people who depend on the demand of that product. We need to not only work on transitioning our energy needs away from fossil fuels, but transitioning the people and communities who depend on the oil and gas market for their livelihood. I've been through three boom and bust cycles. I tried transitioning out of the industry, but nothing matches the pay and benefits. I am all out of sympathy for those who cheer on the death of the oil and gas industry in one decade only to cry about high gas prices the next. Come up with a transition plan that doesn't devastate entire communities and rural America more than it already has and I'm all on board.

I agree we should make long term national energy policy predicated on a poster’s personal job situation. I mean, oil and gas has always been a stable endeavor.

[Eastwood 4394]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Yes, I have. I used to work in oil and gas for 15 years. I literally made the decision to start from scratch, and while wondering how I’m going to meet ends meet, I read articles about oil and gas. Some were positive, some were negative, some were indifferent. I wasn’t emotionally wrecked because some people wanted to transition away from fossil fuels. I didn’t take it personally, even though it literally was personal to me. It is a fact of life. Change is inevitable. There will always be something new. You either adapt or die (or become the old man yelling at clouds). The internet decimated Newspapers and reporters. Automation decimated the middle class. The loom decimated the sewing industry. The main difference in this case is the transition is happening over a long period time. 

The world needs energy. Whether that be fossil fuels, renewables, or nuclear. EV are more efficient than ICB. Renewable energy is a better product to sell than fossil fuels. That doesn’t mean we don’t need fossil fuels and they won’t be here forever. We are in a constant transition, and people like us will be lost in the wash. You either adapt or not. Our jobs will not be replaced, especially not with similar paying jobs. Again, look at other industries. The highly paid newspaper reporter isn’t getting paid the same to post online. The middle class factory worker isn’t making a sweet wage making cars anymore. 

I stated it was histrionic because lower gas prices over the past decade had nothing to do with anyone tearing down fossil fuels or huge regulations prohibiting their exploration. It’s solely due to the shale boom and subsequent Russia/ME price war. I stated it was victimhood because you were assigning blame to some mythical cabal that is rooting against you and causing you to earn less money. You, me, and thousands others, are just a small part in the constant change 

I am not complaining about high gas prices. 

 

 

As two the first two paragraphs, you and I are in complete agreement. I spent over $100k and four years of downturn to make myself "boom/bust proof" because I learned my lesson the first bust around. Adapt or die. But I'm way more fortunate than the blue collar industry types. Their skill set can transition to other industries, and in reality, if renewables had the level of market share that fossil fuels did, then we would probably see salaries almost equal to, if not equal, to the oil and gas industry. We have to bridge that gap for the blue collar portion of the industry and the white collar portion that doesn't fit in well with renewables (PEs with zero engineering experience in other fields, geologists, etc.). I'm much more fortunate in my flexibility and it was still almost devastating to me. I'm tired of leaving large swaths of people behind as society makes progress. The transition has been handled very poorly, thus far, and we have the resources to make the transition very tolerable for those at risk of major economic disruption.

But as to your last paragraph, it is getting extremely hard for small caps to borrow for capex. The inability to borrow is weighing heavy on drilling schedules and lower level M&A. On the one hand, it has lead to healthier business practices during long periods of stable commodity prices because capex is built mostly on cash flow, but if commodity prices tank, it is almost impossible to borrow on favorable terms, these days. ESG looms heavily on these decisions, as well. It's not a mythical cabal. It's the court of public opinion that has been led to believe that renewables are 1) reliable, 2) cheap, and 3) easy to implement. So, any institution that wants to invest or lend to O&G creates a ton of loops to jump through so they can tell their shareholders that they are environmentally responsible and "doing their part." It's created the situation we are in now.

 

41 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

I agree we should make long term national energy policy predicated on a poster’s personal job situation. I mean, oil and gas has always been a stable endeavor.

 

We should make long term national energy policy on what is reasonably achievable. In this thread, and the thread on the old site, most of us "barons" were extremely concerned about the "lower for longer" O&G market creating a massive vulnerability to black swan events. It will take months to ramp up production to where it needs to be and thousands upon thousands of new jobs. We've seen what happens next. We'll over-drill while prices are high, demand destruction will ramp back up, we'll hit some economic turbulence, the price will tank, and a whole new generation of blue collar O&G folks will have a better life ripped out of their hands before they knew what to do with it. It isn't based off of my personal job situation, but the economic reality for hundreds of thousands of people who will flock to the industry for the hopes of better life. If America is going to suddenly demand that we drill, baby, drill, then I want a policy that will catch the vulnerable parts of the industry that falls out when the inevitable drop comes. Am I jaded? Absolutely. But it isn't my situation I'm worried about. It's those who are affected by the boom/bust the most. I want us to do it right, this time (said every oil man who has been burned by a bust over the last 60 years).

[Gatorubet 30411]

3 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

 

As two the first two paragraphs, you and I are in complete agreement. I spent over $100k and four years of downturn to make myself "boom/bust proof" because I learned my lesson the first bust around. Adapt or die. But I'm way more fortunate than the blue collar industry types. Their skill set can transition to other industries, and in reality, if renewables had the level of market share that fossil fuels did, then we would probably see salaries almost equal to, if not equal, to the oil and gas industry. We have to bridge that gap for the blue collar portion of the industry and the white collar portion that doesn't fit in well with renewables (PEs with zero engineering experience in other fields, geologists, etc.). I'm much more fortunate in my flexibility and it was still almost devastating to me. I'm tired of leaving large swaths of people behind as society makes progress. The transition has been handled very poorly, thus far, and we have the resources to make the transition very tolerable for those at risk of major economic disruption.

But as to your last paragraph, it is getting extremely hard for small caps to borrow for capex. The inability to borrow is weighing heavy on drilling schedules and lower level M&A. On the one hand, it has lead to healthier business practices during long periods of stable commodity prices because capex is built mostly on cash flow, but if commodity prices tank, it is almost impossible to borrow on favorable terms, these days. ESG looms heavily on these decisions, as well. It's not a mythical cabal. It's the court of public opinion that has been led to believe that renewables are 1) reliable, 2) cheap, and 3) easy to implement. So, any institution that wants to invest or lend to O&G creates a ton of loops to jump through so they can tell their shareholders that they are environmentally responsible and "doing their part." It's created the situation we are in now.

 

We should make long term national energy policy on what is reasonably achievable. In this thread, and the thread on the old site, most of us "barons" were extremely concerned about the "lower for longer" O&G market creating a massive vulnerability to black swan events. It will take months to ramp up production to where it needs to be and thousands upon thousands of new jobs. We've seen what happens next. We'll over-drill while prices are high, demand destruction will ramp back up, we'll hit some economic turbulence, the price will tank, and a whole new generation of blue collar O&G folks will have a better life ripped out of their hands before they knew what to do with it. It isn't based off of my personal job situation, but the economic reality for hundreds of thousands of people who will flock to the industry for the hopes of better life. If America is going to suddenly demand that we drill, baby, drill, then I want a policy that will catch the vulnerable parts of the industry that falls out when the inevitable drop comes. Am I jaded? Absolutely. But it isn't my situation I'm worried about. It's those who are affected by the boom/bust the most. I want us to do it right, this time (said every oil man who has been burned by a bust over the last 60 years).

I hear you man.     But the reality of uncontrollable policy changing world events - and political parties with different policies trading ascendency every 4 to 8 years - seems to make your goal of a homogenous and reasoned long term policy not likely to happen.   Maybe I’m too cynical.

Not because your suggestion is not wise.   It is.   But because too many global irons are in your fire at all times to make it anything more than a “we should have world peace” suggestion.   Ignore me. Gummies kicking in now, so my sarcastic posting should lessen.