Hey Oil Barons.......

[Neonmoon 38129]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

But as to your last paragraph, it is getting extremely hard for small caps to borrow for capex. The inability to borrow is weighing heavy on drilling schedules and lower level M&A. On the one hand, it has lead to healthier business practices during long periods of stable commodity prices because capex is built mostly on cash flow, but if commodity prices tank, it is almost impossible to borrow on favorable terms, these days. ESG looms heavily on these decisions, as well. It's not a mythical cabal. It's the court of public opinion that has been led to believe that renewables are 1) reliable, 2) cheap, and 3) easy to implement. So, any institution that wants to invest or lend to O&G creates a ton of loops to jump through so they can tell their shareholders that they are environmentally responsible and "doing their part." It's created the situation we are in now.

I hope my post did not come off as heartless, as I, like you know the realities of the situation. I guess where we differ is I don’t give ESG the power you do in broad terms, especially lending. The investors were not seeing the returns promised over the past decade, and were not surprisingly, asking for EPs to show measured restraint, show some results before the money faucets were turned on again (pre-pandemic of course). The ESG angle was for the most part still a line item to be checked for the talking heads. I do not agree that ESG created the situation we are in now. 

[52-80 19159]

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

But the reality of uncontrollable policy changing world events - and political parties with different policies trading ascendency every 4 to 8 years - seems to make your goal of a homogenous and reasoned long term policy not likely to happen.   Maybe I’m too cynical.

Youre not cynical, youre a realist. I agree with this take. And the previous one that the previous slump in prices was due to the glut of production than any singular political decision. 
What you pointed out is the problem: the short-sighted political appeasement, rather than any nuanced or honest dialogue and policy making. The hypocrisy in public stances like anti-fossil fuel in one year (in prez debate), then needing to cooperate with producers the next. 

Prices are never a consequence of business/operational cycles, or production vs consumption trends. Its merely because of “gouging” or “greed” or “russia” and its always caused by “them” and fixed by “us”. Nothing ever in-between. 

I dislike politicians for this binary messaging they pump out, and all the dipshit voters that lap it all up. 

[Guest]

19 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Agree with the first paragraph 

The second paragraph is histrionic victimhood 

I don’t really live my life worried about the lamentations of others outside my sphere. But in a message board world, where discussion is the whole idea, it’s not histrionic victimhood. 

[Guest]

17 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Yes, I have. I used to work in oil and gas for 15 years. I literally made the decision to start from scratch, and while wondering how I’m going to meet ends meet, I read articles about oil and gas. Some were positive, some were negative, some were indifferent. I wasn’t emotionally wrecked because some people wanted to transition away from fossil fuels. I didn’t take it personally, even though it literally was personal to me. It is a fact of life. Change is inevitable. There will always be something new. You either adapt or die (or become the old man yelling at clouds). The internet decimated Newspapers and reporters. Automation decimated the middle class. The loom decimated the sewing industry. The main difference in this case is the transition is happening over a long period time. 

The world needs energy. Whether that be fossil fuels, renewables, or nuclear. EV are more efficient than ICB. Renewable energy is a better product to sell than fossil fuels. That doesn’t mean we don’t need fossil fuels and they won’t be here forever. We are in a constant transition, and people like us will be lost in the wash. You either adapt or not. Our jobs will not be replaced, especially not with similar paying jobs. Again, look at other industries. The highly paid newspaper reporter isn’t getting paid the same to post online. The middle class factory worker isn’t making a sweet wage making cars anymore. 

I stated it was histrionic because lower gas prices over the past decade had nothing to do with anyone tearing down fossil fuels or huge regulations prohibiting their exploration. It’s solely due to the shale boom and subsequent Russia/ME price war. I stated it was victimhood because you were assigning blame to some mythical cabal that is rooting against you and causing you to earn less money. You, me, and thousands others, are just a small part in the constant change 

I am not complaining about high gas prices. 

 

A lot to unpack here. I like a lot about this post. But you’re wrong that renewables are a better product to sell. They are most decidedly NOT. You’re also wrong that people like us will be lost in the wash. We will not. The transition is largely a farce that will not occur with any great consequences in my lifetime (I’m 43). The more people have this attitude, the better it will be for me, as the attitude is a proponent for continued higher prices. 

[jimmyjazz 45957]

Can someone explain the correlation between gasoline prices and oil prices, and how they can get disconnected?  I've seen a rule of thumb that a price change of $10/bbl translates to $0.25 at the pump, but sometimes I see significantly different gas prices for the same underlying oil price.

For instance, WTI was roughly $75/bbl in October 2018 and October 2021, but EIA says the blended gasoline price at those points in time were $2.94/gal (2018) and $3.38/gal (2021).  That's more than a 10% price difference for the same underlying price of oil.  Is the price of gasoline backwards looking; i.e., I should compare October gas prices to (say) August oil prices to allow for processing time?  That doesn't seem consistent with what's going on now -- oil has shot up over the past few weeks, as has gasoline.

[52-80 19159]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Can someone explain the correlation between gasoline prices and oil prices, and how they can get disconnected?  I've seen a rule of thumb that a price change of $10/bbl translates to $0.25 at the pump, but sometimes I see significantly different gas prices for the same underlying oil price.

For instance, WTI was roughly $75/bbl in October 2018 and October 2021, but EIA says the blended gasoline price at those points in time were $2.94/gal (2018) and $3.38/gal (2021).  That's more than a 10% price difference for the same underlying price of oil.  Is the price of gasoline backwards looking; i.e., I should compare October gas prices to (say) August oil prices to allow for processing time?  That doesn't seem consistent with what's going on now -- oil has shot up over the past few weeks, as has gasoline.

using front month futures it looks like a steady $33 gasoline / wti barrel.

if youre talking at the pumps i guess this is all pre-taxes and custom formulation and etc

[jimmyjazz 45957]

4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

using front month futures it looks like a steady $33 gasoline / wti barrel.

Thanks, but my question is why would gas be some $0.44/gal higher with WTI at $75/bbl in 2021 as compared to the same oil price in 2018?

[52-80 19159]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Thanks, but my question is why would gas be some $0.44/gal higher with WTI at $75/bbl in 2021 as compared to the same oil price in 2018?

if the question is what causes the variance around the baseline correlation, i would guess the cost of the additives, local transport and distribution, transient and product-specific demand, etc.  federal tarrifs on fuel AFAIK hasnt changed in decades.

 

just spitballin.  not a downstream expert.  but i dont observe lag in the pricing of the 2 products. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Thanks, but my question is why would gas be some $0.44/gal higher with WTI at $75/bbl in 2021 as compared to the same oil price in 2018?

Is crude and taxes are equal, then it’s the refining and marketing/distribution costs 

midstream is always a bitch. I’d put my money on midstream 

[Guest]

Not sure why we’re comparing to 2008 only. I recall gasoline being about $4 between 2011-2014. Maybe I’m wrong. 

A return to normalcy today. And I’m actually glad. 

[jimmyjazz 45957]

1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

Not sure why we’re comparing to 2008 only. I recall gasoline being about $4 between 2011-2014. Maybe I’m wrong. 

It got real close at times.  Here are the monthly all-grade, all-formulation data for those years:

[MoJames 8244]

On 3/12/2022 at 8:22 AM, Eastwood said:

Let broader society squawk to their hearts' content. They benefited from almost a decade of depressed prices while trying to tear the whole industry down without any meaningful effort towards replacing it with a viable alternative, viable jobs with similar pay for those displaced, and looked the other way when hundreds, if not thousands of small towns in plays across the nation had their economies gutted.

 

That last sentence aptly describes Midland in the 1980s. Not so much Midland 2010s. I guess there was a slow down of houses being built in Pecos f'n Texas and a swath of O&G workers had to hold off on their next Raptor/Tahoe Denali purchase.

My pops in the 80s was lucky enough to find a job at the country club while I watched all my friends move away. I have a hard time providing much sympathy to an O&G industry that has become dependent on a barrel landing at 100 to feel their industry is running smoothly. Anyone with any knowledge of O&G historically is asinine to think the industry will have long term stability. It never has and never will. That is one of the main reason's I went into medicine. I have no desire to be in an industry that relies on a metric that I have little to no control over. 

Edited March 14, 2022 by MoJames

[MoJames 8244]

On 3/12/2022 at 7:40 PM, 52-80 said:

I dislike politicians for this binary messaging they pump out, and all the dipshit voters that lap it all up. 

Independent of the topic, this is the only way today's politicians know how to operate.

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, MoJames said:

That last sentence aptly describes Midland in the 1980s. Not so much Midland 2010s. I guess there was a slow down of houses being built in Pecos f'n Texas and a swath of O&G workers had to hold off on their next Raptor/Tahoe Denali purchase.

My pops in the 80s was lucky enough to find a job at the country club while I watched all my friends move away. I have a hard time providing much sympathy to an O&G industry that has become dependent on a barrel landing at 100 to feel their industry is running smoothly. Anyone with any knowledge of O&G historically is asinine to think the industry will have long term stability. It never has and never will. That is one of the main reason's I went into medicine. I have no desire to be in an industry that relies on a metric that I have little to know control over. 

No shit. Perhaps you should start a medicine barons thread. 

[BTW 370]

3 hours ago, MoJames said:

That last sentence aptly describes Midland in the 1980s. Not so much Midland 2010s. I guess there was a slow down of houses being built in Pecos f'n Texas and a swath of O&G workers had to hold off on their next Raptor/Tahoe Denali purchase.

My pops in the 80s was lucky enough to find a job at the country club while I watched all my friends move away. I have a hard time providing much sympathy to an O&G industry that has become dependent on a barrel landing at 100 to feel their industry is running smoothly. Anyone with any knowledge of O&G historically is asinine to think the industry will have long term stability. It never has and never will. That is one of the main reason's I went into medicine. I have no desire to be in an industry that relies on a metric that I have little to know control over. 

This why I love it.  O&G is an industry for those with very high risk tolerance.  Those that can survive the swings and attrition end up being handsomely rewarded, assuming they have positioned themselves correctly (and it takes some luck too).

[MoJames 8244]

2 minutes ago, BTW said:

This why I love it.  O&G is an industry for those with very high risk tolerance.  Those that can survive the swings and attrition end up being handsomely rewarded, assuming they have positioned themselves correctly (and it takes some luck too).

Exactly. Those meant for O&G enjoy risk. Those in O&G wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G.

[Eastwood 4394]

Exactly. Those meant for O&G enjoy risk. Those in O&G wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G.

I'm 3rd generation O&G and have been in it for 15 years. I don't mind risk, but that doesn't mean I can't wish for stability. I have positioned myself to be "boom/bust proof" to mitigate the risk and make sure that if I transition out of the industry that it won't come with a big pay cut. But to say that those wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G is quite the broad brush, doctor.

[MoJames 8244]

23 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

32 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Exactly. Those meant for O&G enjoy risk. Those in O&G wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G.

I'm 3rd generation O&G and have been in it for 15 years. I don't mind risk, but that doesn't mean I can't wish for stability. I have positioned myself to be "boom/bust proof" to mitigate the risk and make sure that if I transition out of the industry that it won't come with a big pay cut. But to say that those wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G is quite the broad brush, doctor.

Right and I wish for patient's who listen to medical advice, yet it isn't going to happen. We both have no control over those metrics in our field.

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

47 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

56 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Exactly. Those meant for O&G enjoy risk. Those in O&G wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G.

I'm 3rd generation O&G and have been in it for 15 years. I don't mind risk, but that doesn't mean I can't wish for stability. I have positioned myself to be "boom/bust proof" to mitigate the risk and make sure that if I transition out of the industry that it won't come with a big pay cut. But to say that those wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G is quite the broad brush, doctor.

How does one become risk proof then? Don’t be circumspect. Data scientist? 

[Eastwood 4394]

How does one become risk proof then? Don’t be circumspect. Data scientist? 

You can't eliminate all risk, but I certainly had a much harder time finding a job than my friends who were programmers and other tech jobs. I even tinkered with the idea of going to the coding boot camp that UT offered back in 2016, but decided against it.

My attempt to mitigate risk was by becoming an attorney. If oil and gas goes away, I just transition to real estate law, which I also have experience in. It was costly, but it has already started paying dividends.

[Bill Brasky 1449]

On 3/13/2022 at 12:20 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Can someone explain the correlation between gasoline prices and oil prices, and how they can get disconnected?  I've seen a rule of thumb that a price change of $10/bbl translates to $0.25 at the pump, but sometimes I see significantly different gas prices for the same underlying oil price.

For instance, WTI was roughly $75/bbl in October 2018 and October 2021, but EIA says the blended gasoline price at those points in time were $2.94/gal (2018) and $3.38/gal (2021).  That's more than a 10% price difference for the same underlying price of oil.  Is the price of gasoline backwards looking; i.e., I should compare October gas prices to (say) August oil prices to allow for processing time?  That doesn't seem consistent with what's going on now -- oil has shot up over the past few weeks, as has gasoline.

While related there is no simple formula of oil price of x = street price of gas y.   Look at the RBOB markets to get a starting point of what the street price will be, then add in your state/federal taxes (38 cents if you live in Texas), freight (2 to 10 cents), and margin for the gas station itself and that will get you in the ballpark for the street price.   

Last week was pretty wild.  Most gas stations had to rise their prices pretty rapidly to account for increase in prices on the RBOB market.   If you didn't raise your price to keep up with competition then the store's inventory would get depleted rapidly to the point of running out of fuel to sell.   You would then lose out on inside sales where they really make good margin.   Also for the smaller mom and pop type of places they would need to raise price to have cash on hand to pay for the next delivery of more expensive fuel.  

[Guest]

4 hours ago, MoJames said:

Exactly. Those meant for O&G enjoy risk. Those in O&G wishing there wasn't risk shouldn't be in O&G.

Now that I agree on. I don’t see anyone lamenting that risk and volatility is inherent in our business. Rather, lamentations of really tough times. Late ‘14 through ‘20 and even beyond were the worst I’ve ever seen the industry. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, MoJames said:

Right and I wish for patient's who listen to medical advice, yet it isn't going to happen. We both have no control over those metrics in our field.

Patient’s what?  You weren’t an English major before med school, were you Doctor?

[Grimas 669]

6 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

How does one become risk proof then? Don’t be circumspect. Data scientist? 

You buy less house and buy cheaper cars than you can afford and always try to have "plan b" in your pocket... Data is your friend and its going to be much easier to find another job outside the industry if you have those skills then say, a petrophysicist or a structural geologist...

I met up with one of my former bosses this weekend who recently retired and while he's done well, he said that in his neighborhood filled with former O&G guys, the guys with the most retirement money in general were the guys who come from the insurance and banking world...

When times are good in O&G, its good (mostly) but you need to always be prepared for an exit strategy...

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

I hear ya man @Grimas. I’ve been working expat for four years straight and trying to save as much as I can. Lot of coworkers who’ve been rotational for a long time have multiple ex wives and so many toys at home they can’t quit the beast. It’s quite a confluence of factors. Needless to say, this can be a bit beyond just the good old Raptor and Boat crew. 

 

[MAUFRAIS 6629]

What does that mean? Homes in Aspen?

[jeevsie 3734]

13 hours ago, Bill Brasky said:

 Also for the smaller mom and pop type of places they would need to raise price to have cash on hand to pay for the next delivery of more expensive fuel.  

This is an interesting point that I just got learned on with regards to all inventory and inflation impact.  It's not entirely about the margin you get on your existing product if you keep inventory.  It's also about the replacement cost to replenish inventory.  If you don't raise prices enough, you will have to go out of pocket to replenish - if your pockets have $$.

[The Royal We 3072]

There's some good discussion here about the need to put hay in the barn if you are in or connected to O&G for your livelihood.  It's anecdotal for sure, but I can tell quite a bit about whether or not a small E&P company is likely to be successful by observing their office space.  I've had meetings with quite a few small E&P companies that had extravagant office space without the production or activity to support it.  Most of them didn't make it.  Then I've had meetings with other companies that had class C space with some bombjack assets that made/continue to make a killing.

I'm assuming the same mindset carries over to their personal life as well.  Guys who bought that house in Crested Butte before putting hay in the barn had a real hard time over the last 5-6 years, and might not even be in the O&G business at the moment.  While the good ole boy that still drove a pickup truck and lived in the same house was able to hang on during that time and is set up to do really well over the next few years.

I can think of a few in particular where their office space had outrageous decorations/sports memorabilia/art work/classic cars, etc. along with massive offices for the C suite while they operated ~25 wells and drilled 2-3 per year.  wtf?  Why is that necessary and why did PE sponsors/financial backers go along with it?

[Guest]

11 hours ago, Grimas said:

You buy less house and buy cheaper cars than you can afford and always try to have "plan b" in your pocket... Data is your friend and its going to be much easier to find another job outside the industry if you have those skills then say, a petrophysicist or a structural geologist...

I met up with one of my former bosses this weekend who recently retired and while he's done well, he said that in his neighborhood filled with former O&G guys, the guys with the most retirement money in general were the guys who come from the insurance and banking world...

When times are good in O&G, its good (mostly) but you need to always be prepared for an exit strategy...

My exit plan involves your avatar. 

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

There's some good discussion here about the need to put hay in the barn if you are in or connected to O&G for your livelihood.  It's anecdotal for sure, but I can tell quite a bit about whether or not a small E&P company is likely to be successful by observing their office space.  I've had meetings with quite a few small E&P companies that had extravagant office space without the production or activity to support it.  Most of them didn't make it.  Then I've had meetings with other companies that had class C space with some bombjack assets that made/continue to make a killing.

I'm assuming the same mindset carries over to their personal life as well.  Guys who bought that house in Crested Butte before putting hay in the barn had a real hard time over the last 5-6 years, and might not even be in the O&G business at the moment.  While the good ole boy that still drove a pickup truck and lived in the same house was able to hang on during that time and is set up to do really well over the next few years.

I can think of a few in particular where their office space had outrageous decorations/sports memorabilia/art work/classic cars, etc. along with massive offices for the C suite while they operated ~25 wells and drilled 2-3 per year.  wtf?  Why is that necessary and why did PE sponsors/financial backers go along with it?

You’re absolutely spot on. There are exceptions. I’m thinking specifically of a guy that had that expensive office space. Moved to DCC. Has homes in Cabo and multiple mountain homes (I’ve been to one in Crested Butte - ha!). Built a palace in HP and CB. Difference is he sold a company for about $2B. 

[Storm the Field 5294]

$30 drop in 5 trading days. Back to WTI price on Ukraine invasion weekend.

RBOB has dropped from $3.68 on 3/7 to $2.89 today. While prices at the pump won't go down as fast they went up, things should start dropping within the next few days.

[The Royal We 3072]

6 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

You’re absolutely spot on. There are exceptions. I’m thinking specifically of a guy that had that expensive office space. Moved to DCC. Has homes in Cabo and multiple mountain homes (I’ve been to one in Crested Butte - ha!). Built a palace in HP and CB. Difference is he sold a company for about $2B. 

I think I probably know who you are talking about, and yes, there are outliers who get bailed out by being on the right side of the commodity swings by no fault of their own... (Not saying that's the only reason this dude was able to sell for $2B)

I have a client that set a bunch of PE money on fire by building out an office compound in bumfuck OK and the mgmt team probably should have been put out to pasture as a result.  They are now a moderately successful public company with pretty marginal assets just by being on the right side of a commodity price swing this time around.  I know a little about the CEO's spending habits by what we are asked to insure, and he seems like a guy that has made a shitload of money in his career but has spent even more.

I'd much rather invest my money with the guys that keep meager space out in the suburbs somewhere and are drilling high margin wells in places off the beaten path a bit.  Or at least it was off the beaten path when they acquired it...

[Armybrat 40846]

19 hours ago, MoJames said:

Right and I wish for patient's who listen to medical advice, yet it isn't going to happen. We both have no control over those metrics in our field.

I listen to my doctor except when it comes to brisket & pecan pie.

[BTW 370]

14 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

There's some good discussion here about the need to put hay in the barn if you are in or connected to O&G for your livelihood.  It's anecdotal for sure, but I can tell quite a bit about whether or not a small E&P company is likely to be successful by observing their office space.  I've had meetings with quite a few small E&P companies that had extravagant office space without the production or activity to support it.  Most of them didn't make it.  Then I've had meetings with other companies that had class C space with some bombjack assets that made/continue to make a killing.

I'm assuming the same mindset carries over to their personal life as well.  Guys who bought that house in Crested Butte before putting hay in the barn had a real hard time over the last 5-6 years, and might not even be in the O&G business at the moment.  While the good ole boy that still drove a pickup truck and lived in the same house was able to hang on during that time and is set up to do really well over the next few years.

I can think of a few in particular where their office space had outrageous decorations/sports memorabilia/art work/classic cars, etc. along with massive offices for the C suite while they operated ~25 wells and drilled 2-3 per year.  wtf?  Why is that necessary and why did PE sponsors/financial backers go along with it?

Being in downtown Midland the last 14 years, I've seen some of everything you describe.  There's the group of Concho dudes that didn't make the cut with COP so they went out and got a bunch of PE money, fancy offices and big salaries while they hunted for assets ... 18 months later, there's no salary, no office and no assets, and one ticked of PE backer.

Then there's another group, who have awesome office space which includes a bar with every bourbon you can think of and they let you sip on it while you pitch them your deal, so they see a hell of a lot of deals, and have done quite well.

At our small E&P company, my partners and I have refused to go the PE route, which means modest office space, no sports memorabilia, and I drive an 8 year old pickup.  In spite of all that, over the years I have toed the line of bankruptcy several times, but managed to avoid it so far.  I'm not totally responsible though, because I do have my obligatory place in Crested Butte, country club memberships, etc. 

[jimmyjazz 45957]

I would think a place in Crested Butte, while not particularly liquid, would not qualify as a depreciating asset, unlike ski boats, $100K trucks, etc.

[The Royal We 3072]

18 minutes ago, BTW said:

Being in downtown Midland the last 14 years, I've seen some of everything you describe.  There's the group of Concho dudes that didn't make the cut with COP so they went out and got a bunch of PE money, fancy offices and big salaries while they hunted for assets ... 18 months later, there's no salary, no office and no assets, and one ticked of PE backer.

Then there's another group, who have awesome office space which includes a bar with every bourbon you can think of and they let you sip on it while you pitch them your deal, so they see a hell of a lot of deals, and have done quite well.

At our small E&P company, my partners and I have refused to go the PE route, which means modest office space, no sports memorabilia, and I drive an 8 year old pickup.  In spite of all that, over the years I have toed the line of bankruptcy several times, but managed to avoid it so far.  I'm not totally responsible though, because I do have my obligatory place in Crested Butte, country club memberships, etc. 

I've spent a fair amount of time in Midland and had companies from there on each side of my descriptions in mind.  One of them might be the sneakiest big private company I've come across in my years of being an insurance puke.  We started talking about their assets and insurance budget and I was gobsmaked as I looked around at an office that could have easily come out of the 1980's USSR.  They owned and operated all kinds of highly profitable (but def not shiny) assets/companies, pretty sure it was worth well over $1bn.  Just the nicest folks ever and probably worth god knows how many millions. 

I guess I should clarify that the companies with the opulent office space I had in mind were all doing it with someone else's money.  I don't know if the bourbon bar boys are splashing around their own money or PE money, but it seems like it's usually not their own when they do that and end up shitting the bed.  When your E&P company's Inuit art collection is worth more than your E&P assets at liquidation, you've royally fucked up. 

And I love Crested Butte.  My boss has a place there and it's one of my favorite places on earth.

[Trey3216 15346]

18 hours ago, Bill Brasky said:

While related there is no simple formula of oil price of x = street price of gas y.   Look at the RBOB markets to get a starting point of what the street price will be, then add in your state/federal taxes (38 cents if you live in Texas), freight (2 to 10 cents), and margin for the gas station itself and that will get you in the ballpark for the street price.   

Last week was pretty wild.  Most gas stations had to rise their prices pretty rapidly to account for increase in prices on the RBOB market.   If you didn't raise your price to keep up with competition then the store's inventory would get depleted rapidly to the point of running out of fuel to sell.   You would then lose out on inside sales where they really make good margin.   Also for the smaller mom and pop type of places they would need to raise price to have cash on hand to pay for the next delivery of more expensive fuel.  

Yep.  A good rule of thumb to gauge what gas prices at the pump will look like in the next few days is to take RBOB and add $.50 to factor in federal/state taxes and freight costs.  

[Grimas 669]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I would think a place in Crested Butte, while not particularly liquid, would not qualify as a depreciating asset, unlike ski boats, $100K trucks, etc.

Not a CPA but isn't a bar full of bourbon both a liquid and a depreciating asset? (Asking for a friend...) 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I would think a place in Crested Butte, while not particularly liquid, would not qualify as a depreciating asset, unlike ski boats, $100K trucks, etc.

CB is a weird market. It’s considerably cheaper than BC or Vail because it’s in the middle of fucking nowhere. After this Covid uptick for vacation homes, while I wouldn’t call it depreciating, I wouldn’t call it the smartest investment. 

I have a friend that I asked if he wanted to invest with me. He refused, and bought what I think is a very average CB house. I’ve stayed there once and will never again. He would’ve been considerably better off buying assets with me, and he knows it and will never admit it. 

[BTW 370]

The value of my place in CB is up ~40% in the year that I've owned it.  If you're doing better than that with your assets, than I applaud you.

A large part of the appeal of CB is that it's actually in the middle of fucking nowhere.  Still not terrible to get there since Gunnison is a good airport 20 minutes away and several major airlines fly in there.  Plus, I don't have to get anywhere near I-70.

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, BTW said:

The value of my place in CB is up ~40% in the year that I've owned it.  If you're doing better than that with your assets, than I applaud you.

A large part of the appeal of CB is that it's actually in the middle of fucking nowhere.  Still not terrible to get there since Gunnison is a good airport 20 minutes away and several major airlines fly in there.  Plus, I don't have to get anywhere near I-70.

 

I like CB much better than BC or Vail. It is cheaper precisely because it’s far away from I-70 and Denver. And your home is benefitting from the post pandemic vacation home boom. Good for you. 

I will return all equity within 6 months of buying a large-ish acquisition. 
 

[52-80 19159]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1504073842871963653/photo/1

 

"Oil prices are decreasing, gas prices should too." --> "Oil and gas companies shouldn’t pad their profits at the expense of hardworking Americans."

Directly implicating oil and gas companies for the supposed Crude vs Fuel price differential.  Nevermind the O&G ownership of fueling stations are single-digit %. 

Straight up lying to the public.  Really cool stuff.

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1504073842871963653/photo/1

 

"Oil prices are decreasing, gas prices should too." --> "Oil and gas companies shouldn’t pad their profits at the expense of hardworking Americans."

Directly implicating oil and gas companies for the supposed Crude vs Fuel price differential.  Nevermind the O&G ownership of fueling stations are single-digit %. 

Straight up lying to the public.  Really cool stuff.

He’s an idiot. Trump is an idiot and was toward this industry while in office. There is no CR is pointing these statements out. 

[Storm the Field 5294]

Twitter shows me a lot of tweets from GasBuddy. In a nutshell: stations lose money during rapid RBOB spikes and have to quickly jack up their prices to catch up. The drops occur slower b/c they need time to recoup their losses and turn a profit again.

Or, in other words, "elevator up, stairs down."

 

 

[Guest]

I have a Shell card. Yes, I still have a fucking gas card. I do like it because it allows me to track our family’s gasoline spending. Gasoline has been creeping higher and higher since about summer of ‘20. Over that time I would say my gas bill has averaged about $450. Over the last 6 months, it was averaged $750-$800. Last month is was $1,250. Granted, I drove from Dallas to Houston for a basketball tournament, drove to Allen for a football tournament, and drove to Euless for a baseball tournament, while my wife drove all over God’s creation for a few dance competitions, track meets and lacrosse tournaments. 

[jimmyjazz 45957]

20 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

CB is a weird market. It’s considerably cheaper than BC or Vail because it’s in the middle of fucking nowhere. After this Covid uptick for vacation homes, while I wouldn’t call it depreciating, I wouldn’t call it the smartest investment. 

It was a comment aimed at the relative wisdom of investing in real estate as opposed to toys.  It wasn't intended to be dead nuts on regarding the Crested Butte market, I simply used the town referenced in previous posts.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It was a comment aimed at the relative wisdom of investing in real estate as opposed to toys.  It wasn't intended to be dead nuts on regarding the Crested Butte market, I simply used the town referenced in previous posts.

I know what you were saying….

[52-80 19159]

SCHUMER SAYS CONGRESS WILL CALL IN COMING WEEKS FOR CEOS OF OIL AND GAS COMPANIES TO TESTIFY ON ENERGY PRICE SPIKES

 

”The Buckees in my town hiked its gasoline to $6 and a bag of popcorn to $4.50.  Why?”

Hess CEO: “Senator, we sell unrefined crude”. 
 

Phineas Taylor Barnum is rolling over in his grave. Fucking clown circus. 

[Okie State 3821]

Here we go again. Round and round.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

SCHUMER SAYS CONGRESS WILL CALL IN COMING WEEKS FOR CEOS OF OIL AND GAS COMPANIES TO TESTIFY ON ENERGY PRICE SPIKES

 

”The Buckees in my town hiked its gasoline to $6 and a bag of popcorn to $4.50.  Why?”

Hess CEO: “Senator, we sell unrefined crude”. 
 

Phineas Taylor Barnum is rolling over in his grave. Fucking clown circus. 

They shouldn’t go. They should simply forgo the grandstanding populist horseshit. I am really beginning to detest every politician on either side of the aisle.