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Hey Oil Barons.......

936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Guest

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Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Job security performance.  They all know it's a show.  

On what planet would Pioneer’s Board fire Scott Sheffield for failing to appear to Chuck Schumer’s circus?  The same extends to any Board of any oil company. Fuck Congress. 

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52-80

52-80 19147

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, MoJames said:

It is so depression to think a huge swath of the population feeds off this crap.

I'm not as much surprised that the politicians broadcast it, than I am disappointed at how many people believe it.  It's just all so #weltschmerz

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Bill Brasky

Bill Brasky 1443

Posted
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8 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Twitter shows me a lot of tweets from GasBuddy. In a nutshell: stations lose money during rapid RBOB spikes and have to quickly jack up their prices to catch up. The drops occur slower b/c they need time to recoup their losses and turn a profit again.

Or, in other words, "elevator up, stairs down."

 

 

It really depends on where they are at on inventory when the prices rise and fall.   If you filled your diesel tanks to the rim and next day it goes up 80 cents per gallon in cost, you raise your price to stay competitive with the market, then turnover that inventory in a day or two, you are golden.   If you were empty and forced to buy some on the day when it rose 80 cents, then the next day it drops 50 cents per gallon you are screwed.   

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

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On 3/14/2022 at 7:31 PM, Porterhouse said:

Late ‘14 through ‘20 and even beyond were the worst I’ve ever seen the industry. 

This man speaks truth.  While lots of people think there was some sort of boom for the industry between 2016(?) and 2019 unless you were in the Permian the industry has sucked shit since around Nov 2014.  My dad was around for the mid 80's bust and I think this is the worst since then... maybe even worse.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

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On 3/14/2022 at 10:23 PM, Johnny Chimpo said:

I hear ya man @Grimas. I’ve been working expat for four years straight and trying to save as much as I can. Lot of coworkers who’ve been rotational for a long time have multiple ex wives and so many toys at home they can’t quit the beast. It’s quite a confluence of factors. Needless to say, this can be a bit beyond just the good old Raptor and Boat crew. 

 

I did the expat thing for 16 years and it was the best career decision I ever made.  By the time I came back I had enough socked away to pay cash for my house, car and enough savings for the kids' college tuitions.  If another expat assignment became available I would be gone tomorrow.  Roughly four more years in a high premium assignment and I would hang it up for good.

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Grimas

Grimas 669

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18 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I did the expat thing for 16 years and it was the best career decision I ever made.  By the time I came back I had enough socked away to pay cash for my house, car and enough savings for the kids' college tuitions.  If another expat assignment became available I would be gone tomorrow.  Roughly four more years in a high premium assignment and I would hang it up for good.

We did 10 expat years and the wife is still missing the lifestyle...

Unfortunately, I think the expat days are over for awhile and all the majors have slashed their expat packages the last few years so they aren't as attractive anymore... The few guys I know that are overseas are only getting 80% international schools paid by the company, trips home are now economy, etc...  It's no longer - "we realize you are making a "sacrifice" of your lifestyle moving overseas so we'll compensate you" to "this is the only job available and if you don't take it, well let you go..."  I've got lots of expat friends who got sent home in the last 3 years only to find out, there was no job when they got back.  

But like @Fudge Nuggets said, I only need a few years so I'd go in a second but knowing it's a one-and-done sort of gig...

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MoJames

MoJames 8244

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18 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

My dad was around for the mid 80's bust and I think this is the worst since then... maybe even worse.

I'd disagree on that. 5th Generational Midlander and I did move away as soon as I could, but have tons of friends and family in the area. 

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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On 3/17/2022 at 7:51 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

I did the expat thing for 16 years and it was the best career decision I ever made.  By the time I came back I had enough socked away to pay cash for my house, car and enough savings for the kids' college tuitions.  If another expat assignment became available I would be gone tomorrow.  Roughly four more years in a high premium assignment and I would hang it up for good.

ME or UK or Asia?  We did Kuwait and I became an alcoholic in an Arab dry world lol.

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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On 3/19/2022 at 12:13 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Asia and West Africa. Asia was obviously better but WA paid a fortune. 

Our son flew for the old Continental Airlines and the non stop from Houston to Lagos was a hoot with the oilfield workers in boots and hard hats.  Nowadays you can't fly non stop from Houston any more to Africa.  

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

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Posted

I unloaded all my OXY shares that I had the great misfortune of buying right after the APC debacle.  Held that garbage for three years and am damn happy to get my money back.  I debated holding on longer to make a small profit but I don't trust that maniac they have running the show so bailed.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11448

Posted
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On 3/16/2022 at 3:19 PM, Porterhouse said:

On what planet would Pioneer’s Board fire Scott Sheffield for failing to appear to Chuck Schumer’s circus?  The same extends to any Board of any oil company. Fuck Congress. 

They won’t call Pioneer. Or hell even Oxy or COP. If they even do it, they’ll call the Big 4: XOM, Chevron, BP and Shell. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45893

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6 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

I’ve bought SLB at $17 and more at $17.50 and it’s currently at $42. I’ve also bought XLE at $30 or so and it’s at $75.57 currently. Honestly, I’ll probably just hold them for the long term as I don’t need the cash. Kinda fun to see such big gains on my Schwab account.

Buy some puts.  You can probably insure that $75 price for 5% per year.  (Not currently looking at option chains, just past experience.)

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The Royal We

The Royal We 3069

Posted
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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Interesting data:

 

 

This would echo what I've heard from my clients.  It's not their inability to get permits or any regulatory pressures, it's that the people controlling the purse strings don't want them to drastically ramp up. 

I don't see how they could say that increased activity is "not dependent on price" though.  Everyone has a number where the upside would be too much to ignore.  Or maybe it's a sustained $100/bbl pricing, but someone is going to make that money.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45893

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13 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

What time length?  In the Market money?

I'm not particularly adept at options, from what I've seen "at the money" works pretty well, I'd just look at the cost per days to expiry and figure out how willing you'd be for it to move further up from your strike.  Of course, you could roll up and out at that point.

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BTW

BTW 370

Posted
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18 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Interesting data:

 

 

This echoes a conversation I had Saturday night with the president of a large publicly traded E&P on Saturday night.  When I asked about the political pressure he is receiving to pick up rigs, he said something in line with this.  Basically, he said they have been preaching capital discipline and return to shareholders since the pandemic collapse and for them to go back on it now would be short sighted.  He also said that a decision to pick up rigs now wouldn't actually bring any additional barrels to market for 9 months at the minimum, and likely 12 - 14 months.  

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Interesting data:

 

 

They’re asking the right question to the wrong group. They need to be asking institutional investors this question. As with most things in life, there’s a herd mentality and they are too slow to react. You can maintain capital discipline and still ramp up - considerably. Not having meaningful incremental production for 9-12 months just means fundamentals supporting continued price appreciation are present. So, it would behoove your company to ramp up considerably now, knowing that you’ll have high-to-higher prices when those flush volumes come on production. 

This is the most logical thing to me. But I’m not a scorned woman institution, concerned with what the other scorned women are going to do, insistent on mostly wasted efforts like ESG and renewables. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19189

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On 3/24/2022 at 8:07 AM, BTW said:

This echoes a conversation I had Saturday night with the president of a large publicly traded E&P on Saturday night.  When I asked about the political pressure he is receiving to pick up rigs, he said something in line with this.  Basically, he said they have been preaching capital discipline and return to shareholders since the pandemic collapse and for them to go back on it now would be short sighted.  He also said that a decision to pick up rigs now wouldn't actually bring any additional barrels to market for 9 months at the minimum, and likely 12 - 14 months.  

They always preach capital discipline and shareholder returns.

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bluto

bluto 4915

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46 minutes ago, BTW said:

$13 move down in two trading days ... does the market think OPEC is gonna open the tap?  Is all this from the Chinese lockdowns?

Seems more peace talk reaction which is silly IMO as I don’t think the world is scurrying back to buy Roosky oil any time soon

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