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936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

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If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
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My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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Loop 1604

Loop 1604 227

Posted
Posted
On 4/11/2022 at 10:16 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Quite a few deepwater wells in GOM have cased hole frac pack completions these days.

Frac pack is typically used for reservoir sand control, not exactly “reservoir stimulation” in the same sense as a “traditional” slickwater frac. But point taken.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7780

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The way I read the article is all heating will have to be electric, no gas fired furnaces allowed for keeping buildings warm.  Where do they think the electricity is going to come from? 
As someone who lives in the sticks and has to use electricity to heat my house in the winter, let me tell you how expensive that can get.  I'd spend quite a bit of money to run nat gas to my house if it was an option.
Yeah, i have electric heat in the CO mountains. My winter electric bills are north of 400 and that's keeping the house at 50 when we aren't there.
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

Posted
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43 minutes ago, ONE YARD said:

lyondell closing houston refinery and exiting industry.   interesting times.    guessing pressure from home country (similar to shell)

Huh. How are they not making good money?  Surely someone buys it and keeps it going. 

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3608

Posted
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1 hour ago, ONE YARD said:

lyondell closing houston refinery and exiting industry.   interesting times.    guessing pressure from home country (similar to shell)

They've been trying to exit that space for a long time.  It doesn't align with their business and the refinery is old and is going to be a liability.  They are trying to get ahead of it.  There is a reason there have been no buyers for a while.  It's fine after fine and waiting to blow up

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

Posted
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15 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

They've been trying to exit that space for a long time.  It doesn't align with their business and the refinery is old and is going to be a liability.  They are trying to get ahead of it.  There is a reason there have been no buyers for a while.  It's fine after fine and waiting to blow up

yeah. it’s always been known as a dirty/ poorly ran place. 

 

39 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Huh. How are they not making good money?  Surely someone buys it and keeps it going. 

from my understanding they plan to keep the land. maybe build a chemical plant there eventually?    not sure. 

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3608

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3 minutes ago, ONE YARD said:

yeah. it’s always been known as a dirty/ poorly ran place. 

 

from my understanding they plan to keep the land. maybe build a chemical plant there eventually?    not sure. 

Depends if they can get a buyer or not.  If someone buys the property then they also buy the skeletons.  If not it would be in LYBs best interest to keep the land and build on top of the skeletons

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
Posted
On 4/19/2022 at 11:09 AM, TxTower said:


Back down near $7 today. Some wild swings in the NG market but unfortunately the trend is still up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah I think it's gonna be rough for the rest of this year, especially with limited gas-to-coal switching this summer. But production is about to really take off from 2H '22 into '23.

We should see something approaching a balanced market by 2H '23 into 2024, assuming no more black swan events. (I'll grant you that may be a big assumption, lol)

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On 4/21/2022 at 7:39 PM, ONE YARD said:

lyondell closing houston refinery and exiting industry.   interesting times.    guessing pressure from home country (similar to shell)

Lyondell?!?!  From Cameroon?!?!!

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30275

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On 3/16/2022 at 8:25 AM, 52-80 said:

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1504073842871963653/photo/1

 

"Oil prices are decreasing, gas prices should too." --> "Oil and gas companies shouldn’t pad their profits at the expense of hardworking Americans."

Directly implicating oil and gas companies for the supposed Crude vs Fuel price differential.  Nevermind the O&G ownership of fueling stations are single-digit %. 

Straight up lying to the public.  Really cool stuff.

This insinuates that you think the public will pay attention to salient facts, listen to opposing viewpoints,  conduct other research from knowledgeable sources to test the truthfulness of each premise, analyze it non-emotionally, and approach the whole issue with no pre-set agenda. 

 

You’re one of those crab people, aren’t you?

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Cajun

Cajun 11722

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18 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

This insinuates that you think the public will pay attention to salient facts, listen to opposing viewpoints,  conduct other research from knowledgeable sources to test the truthfulness of each premise, analyze it non-emotionally, and approach the whole issue with no pre-set agenda. 

 

You’re one of those crab people, aren’t you?

How can you make joke at a time like this.

These prices are crushtacianing us!!!

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
Posted
On 5/5/2022 at 9:22 PM, Loop 1604 said:

So when do we see $10 gas?

It seems like we're finally seeing production creep up. 

We should really see it take off over the next few weeks and then if it continues to go where forecasters are expecting we should finally see some real relief on prices over the next several months.  

 

 

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Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

It seems like we're finally seeing production creep up. 

We should really see it take off over the next few weeks and then if it continues to go where forecasters are expecting we should finally see some real relief on prices over the next several months.  

 

 

lol. You’re not gonna see “real relief” on prices for a long, long time. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

lol. You’re not gonna see “real relief” on prices for a long, long time. 

Well $5 would be "real relief" from $7-8 wouldn't it? :)

And I'm not sure what you would consider a "long long time", but if L48 production gets close what most forecasters are expecting over the next two years, reaching 98-99 Bcf/d by 2024 we should see gas back down in the $3.50-$4.00 range by then. And that is with some pretty robust demand assumptions with LNG exports maxed and basically little to no elasticity in power demand.

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30 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Well $5 would be "real relief" from $7-8 wouldn't it? :)

And I'm not sure what you would consider a "long long time", but if L48 production gets close what most forecasters are expecting over the next two years, reaching 98-99 Bcf/d by 2024 we should see gas back down in the $3.50-$4.00 range by then. And that is with some pretty robust demand assumptions with LNG exports maxed and basically little to no elasticity in power demand.

Way off. I’m more bullish on gas than crude long term. The days of extended $3.50-$4.00 are gone for the foreseeable future. Believe me, I wish they would go down temporarily. 

I do agree we could snap our fingers and nearly double gas production - if we had takeaway capacity - we don’t. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
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19 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Way off. I’m more bullish on gas than crude long term. The days of extended $3.50-$4.00 are gone for the foreseeable future. Believe me, I wish they would go down temporarily. 

I do agree we could snap our fingers and nearly double gas production - if we had takeaway capacity - we don’t. 

So you think I'm off on supply or demand? (Or both?)

We don't need to double production to get it back down to $3.50-$4.00. If supply growth can exceed demand growth by 0.5-1.0 Bcf/d we'll get there.

Isn't takeaway mostly an Appalachia issue? If one assumes most of the supply growth is coming from Permian and Haynesville, those don't seem like areas where takeaway will be an issue. Kinder already has announced expansions to Permian Highway and GCX are coming on earlier than expected (4Q '23, IIRC) and another large pipe will likely come online 2025ish.  There are also several projects in-process for Haynesville and it has two south-bound outlets for gas via Carthage and Perryville.

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27 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

So you think I'm off on supply or demand? (Or both?)

We don't need to double production to get it back down to $3.50-$4.00. If supply growth can exceed demand growth by 0.5-1.0 Bcf/d we'll get there.

Isn't takeaway mostly an Appalachia issue? If one assumes most of the supply growth is coming from Permian and Haynesville, those don't seem like areas where takeaway will be an issue. Kinder already has announced expansions to Permian Highway and GCX are coming on earlier than expected (4Q '23, IIRC) and another large pipe will likely come online 2025ish.  There are also several projects in-process for Haynesville and it has two south-bound outlets for gas via Carthage and Perryville.

Q4’23 is a LONG way away. NE takeaway is a major, major issue. Nat is becoming more globalized of a commodity a la crude. I agree with you on supply, think it will be choppy, but think it doesn’t matter in terms of abating down to $3.50 again. And despite my agreement with you on supply, other factors will prop prices up - takeaway constraints (mostly NE but also Permian), LNG expansion, and EV proliferation, which propel an increase in demand that should continue to outstrip any supply adds. 

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oSuJeff97

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59 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Q4’23 is a LONG way away. NE takeaway is a major, major issue. Nat is becoming more globalized of a commodity a la crude. I agree with you on supply, think it will be choppy, but think it doesn’t matter in terms of abating down to $3.50 again. And despite my agreement with you on supply, other factors will prop prices up - takeaway constraints (mostly NE but also Permian), LNG expansion, and EV proliferation, which propel an increase in demand that should continue to outstrip any supply adds. 

I agree that NE takeaway is a major issue, but there is room to grow production there through at least 2026-27, even if MVP doesn’t go; and either way total Appalachia has room to grow from ~32 Bcf/d to 36-37 Bcf/d by the late 2020s. That aside, the biggest supply growth will be coming from Permian and Haynesville anyway. And yeah takeaway *could* become an issue in Permian again like it was in 2019 but I just think that those expansions will be there eventually, unlike Appalachia; same deal for Haynesville.

How do you see EV proliferation impacting demand? On the power side I assume? Most reports I see count this as a negligible impact on total power demand, especially with wind/solar making substantial inroads on the U.S. power stack by the end of the decade, mostly at the expense of coal and gas.  Pretty much everyone has U.S. nat gas power demand peaking around 2025-26 or so before slowly eroding as renewable penetration accelerates.

The problem with nat gas becoming global is we need to expand LNG export facilities SIGNIFICANTLY. It doesn’t matter if the demand is there if you can’t liquify the gas on our end, transport it and then receive it on the other end. Will we get there? Maybe I guess, but we’re talking hundreds of billions of investment dollars and several years to build the facilities.

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1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

I agree that NE takeaway is a major issue, but there is room to grow production there through at least 2026-27, even if MVP doesn’t go; and either way total Appalachia has room to grow from ~32 Bcf/d to 36-37 Bcf/d by the late 2020s. That aside, the biggest supply growth will be coming from Permian and Haynesville anyway. And yeah takeaway *could* become an issue in Permian again like it was in 2019 but I just think that those expansions will be there eventually, unlike Appalachia; same deal for Haynesville.

How do you see EV proliferation impacting demand? On the power side I assume? Most reports I see count this as a negligible impact on total power demand, especially with wind/solar making substantial inroads on the U.S. power stack by the end of the decade, mostly at the expense of coal and gas.  Pretty much everyone has U.S. nat gas power demand peaking around 2025-26 or so before slowly eroding as renewable penetration accelerates.

The problem with nat gas becoming global is we need to expand LNG export facilities SIGNIFICANTLY. It doesn’t matter if the demand is there if you can’t liquify the gas on our end, transport it and then receive it on the other end. Will we get there? Maybe I guess, but we’re talking hundreds of billions of investment dollars and several years to build the facilities.

Ha. IEA?  Lemme see a report. Off the cuff I seriously doubt this. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
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14 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Ha. IEA?  Lemme see a report. Off the cuff I seriously doubt this. 

The stuff I'm looking at are subscription-based that we use at my company... Wood Mackenzie, IHS, S&P Global, etc., so I can't really link them here unless you have a subscription.  

In their latest long-term forecasts, Wood Mackenzie has nat gas power demand falling from 28.7 Bcf/d in 2026 to 28.4 in 2031; S&P Global has it falling from 29.7 in 2026 to 23.1 in 2031.  IHS has it peaking a few years later (2029) but falling after that. Of note, IHS's long-term forecast is the most stale (from February) and the other two both revised down 2026-35 power demand in the most recent updates so it will be interesting to see if IHS follows suit in their next update.

And to be clear, I'm talking about L48 demand, not world demand.

After working with this data for internal forecasts for the past few years, I just feel like there is a LOT of recency bias when prices make dramatic moves. Like in the summer of 2020 I remember getting into arguments about whether or not gas would ever get above $4 again because it was below $2 and there was nothing above $2.40 or so on the forward curve, even though forecasters kept talking about production was going to fall and prices would rise.  Now I'm having the opposite argument where nobody can imagine it going below $5, lol. 

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Just now, oSuJeff97 said:

The stuff I'm looking at are subscription-based that we use at my company... Wood Mackenzie, IHS, S&P Global, etc., so I can't really link them here unless you have a subscription.  

In their latest long-term forecasts, Wood Mackenzie has nat gas power demand falling from 28.7 Bcf/d in 2026 to 28.4 in 2031; S&P Global has it falling from 29.7 in 2026 to 23.1 in 2031.  IHS has it peaking a few years later (2029) but falling after that. Of note, IHS's long-term forecast is the most stale (from February) and the other two both revised down 2026-35 power demand in the most recent updates so it will be interesting to see if IHS follows suit in their next update.

And to be clear, I'm talking about L48 demand, not world demand.

After working with this data for internal forecasts for the past few years, I just feel like there is a LOT of recency bias when prices make dramatic moves. Like in the summer of 2020 I remember getting into arguments about whether or not gas would ever get above $4 again because it was below $2 and there was nothing above $2.40 or so on the forward curve, even though forecasters kept talking about production was going to fall and prices would rise.  Now I'm having the opposite argument where nobody can imagine it going below $5, lol. 

WoodMac is a LOT more trustworthy than pretty much any other source. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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Posted
1 minute ago, Porterhouse said:

WoodMac is a LOT more trustworthy than pretty much any other source. 

Yeah I like them. Their price forecasts can get a little bullish sometimes, but I think their analysis is solid and I really like their lead N.A. nat gas guy (Eugene Kim).

 

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