Hey Oil Barons.......

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

You know, you have the ability to be one of the most interesting posters in this thread. You honestly sound knowledgeable and you're in the industry. But instead, you just post this sort of stuff to seemingly say "I'm so smart and everyone else is so dumb."

Reread the tone of your post. Maybe I misread it?  I doubt it. Your post was a dumb one, and deserved a response with some ass behind it. I’m sorry that offends you. 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Porterhouse

[MoJames 8244]

2 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Your mom’s getting slammed. 

Here is one from 2 hours ago.

[jeevsie 3733]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

You know, you have the ability to be one of the most interesting posters in this thread. You honestly sound knowledgeable and you're in the industry. But instead, you just post this sort of stuff to seemingly say "I'm so smart and everyone else is so dumb."

User name, blah blah blah

Edited October 21, 2022 by jeevsie

[Storm the Field 5294]

God damn this thread has gone full retard the last 3-4 pages.

[Storm the Field 5294]

On 8/26/2022 at 3:48 PM, Storm the Field said:

Noticed the rig count has plateaued over the past 2 months. Been stuck between 750 and 765 dating back to late June. Count just goes up or down 3 or 4 within that range each week. Just below the average of roughly 790 that we were seeing right before Covid (12/19-3/20)

Still barely budging, though now at 771, which gets us back to the count on 3/20/20, the day that the US case count and worldwide death count both reached 10K, California went into lockdown, and 2.5 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits.

[MoJames 8244]

38 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Still barely budging, though now at 771, which gets us back to the count on 3/20/20, the day that the US case count and worldwide death count both reached 10K, California went into lockdown, and 2.5 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits.

Pre pandemic what was the forecast for the rig count? On the rise? Or had it plateaued?

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Pre pandemic what was the forecast for the rig count? On the rise? Or had it plateaued?

Probably on the way down because of Saudi-Russian price war and general malaise very much present at the time in the industry. People forget that 2018-2019 - like minimum security prison - was no picnic.  

[Storm the Field 5294]

1 hour ago, MoJames said:

Pre pandemic what was the forecast for the rig count? On the rise? Or had it plateaued?

Slowly decreasing. Recent peak was 1,082 in November 2018 (WTI average $70). First dropped below 1,000 in April 2019 ($64). By Thanksgiving of 2019 ($58), we were down to about 800, where things plateaued for 3-4 months until the one-two punch of COVID and Russia-Saudi price war in March 2020.

A far cry from the 2009-14 boom times when you often had 2,000+ rigs active (Barnett was still a thing, Colorado was still industry-friendly....).

Previous low point was something like 405 heading into Memorial Day 2016 ($45).

We got down all the way to 245 in August 2020 during the worst of the COVID bust.

1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

Probably on the way down because of Saudi-Russian price war and general malaise very much present at the time in the industry. People forget that 2018-2019 - like minimum security prison - was no picnic.  

COVID set off the price war and they were more or less simultaneous. OPEC+ had been cooperating with each other on production quotas dating back to when they kicked of the War on Shale in 2015. First weekend of March 2020, when things were starting to get shitty in China and Italy, they convened in Vienna to discuss how much additional production they needed to cut to respond to crashing demand on COVID. Russia thought Saudi was overreacting and trying to steal market share and walked out of the meeting, which tanked WTI. Of course, had anyone known just how much worse COVID would be worldwide only a few short weeks later, it would have probably crashed to single digits regardless of what happened in Vienna.

At least on the title side, while '18 and '19 weren't exactly on par with '09-'14, they were hugely improved over '15 and '16. NAPE was pretty lively in '18 and '19, IIRC. I could probably count on one hand the days I spent idle from mid '17 all the way through March '20.

I came into the industry during such an epic boom that I naively thought that's how it always worked. Graduated in 2010, spent a little under a year or so running title for a broker and then went to work for a 100+ attorney title firm (there used to be several of them!). Wrote hundreds of opinions over those next 3 years. Was genuinely confused the first time that I turned in a file and asked for my next assignment and was told there wasn't anything available.  

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Slowly decreasing. Recent peak was 1,082 in November 2018 (WTI average $70). First dropped below 1,000 in April 2019 ($64). By Thanksgiving of 2019 ($58), we were down to about 800, where things plateaued for 3-4 months until the one-two punch of COVID and Russia-Saudi price war in March 2020.

A far cry from the 2009-14 boom times when you often had 2,000+ rigs active (Barnett was still a thing, Colorado was still industry-friendly....).

Previous low point was something like 405 heading into Memorial Day 2016 ($45).

We got down all the way to 245 in August 2020 during the worst of the COVID bust.

COVID set off the price war and they were more or less simultaneous. OPEC+ had been cooperating with each other on production quotas dating back to when they kicked of the War on Shale in 2015. First weekend of March 2020, when things were starting to get shitty in China and Italy, they convened in Vienna to discuss how much additional production they needed to cut to respond to crashing demand on COVID. Russia thought Saudi was overreacting and trying to steal market share and walked out of the meeting, which tanked WTI. Of course, had anyone known just how much worse COVID would be worldwide only a few short weeks later, it would have probably crashed to single digits regardless of what happened in Vienna.

At least on the title side, while '18 and '19 weren't exactly on par with '09-'14, they were hugely improved over '15 and '16. NAPE was pretty lively in '18 and '19, IIRC. I could probably count on one hand the days I spent idle from mid '17 all the way through March '20.

I came into the industry during such an epic boom that I naively thought that's how it always worked. Graduated in 2010, spent a little under a year or so running title for a broker and then went to work for a 100+ attorney title firm (there used to be several of them!). Wrote hundreds of opinions over those next 3 years. Was genuinely confused the first time that I turned in a file and asked for my next assignment and was told there wasn't anything available.  

Prior to Memorial Day 2016, we’d hit a 15 year low at $26.82 in February 2016. From September 2014 to June 2020, the industry was varying levels of shitshow. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19188]

19 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Prior to Memorial Day 2016, we’d hit a 15 year low at $26.82 in February 2016. From September 2014 to June 2020, the industry was varying levels of shitshow. 

Yep, even though oil prices were behaving nicely from about 2016-mid 2018 it always felt like the next shit sandwich was right around the corner.  Worst feeling  “boom” / recovery ever.

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

I counted at least 5 rounds of layoffs from 2015-2020. 

[YGIFS 19449]

I think energy is a reliable space to perhaps make a few dollars.  I also think it’s fucking hilarious that folks that proclaim “I don’t support Trump or his lack of energy knowledge” are On the public record having donated to him and/or voted for him in primaries.  I’m looking at the donor rolls of some people.  But y’all bounce back with your “I like oil money.  But I won’t support m……….

[Cornpop 230]

7 hours ago, YGIFS said:

I think energy is a reliable space to perhaps make a few dollars.  I also think it’s fucking hilarious that folks that proclaim “I don’t support Trump or his lack of energy knowledge” are On the public record having donated to him and/or voted for him in primaries.  I’m looking at the donor rolls of some people.  But y’all bounce back with your “I like oil money.  But I won’t support m……….

definitely CR

[Guest]

19 hours ago, YGIFS said:

I think energy is a reliable space to perhaps make a few dollars.  I also think it’s fucking hilarious that folks that proclaim “I don’t support Trump or his lack of energy knowledge” are On the public record having donated to him and/or voted for him in primaries.  I’m looking at the donor rolls of some people.  But y’all bounce back with your “I like oil money.  But I won’t support m……….

[Archer 474]

21 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

I counted at least 5 rounds of layoffs from 2015-2020. 

Mine started in 2016 and lasted to 2021 but I think it was 8 rounds. Averaged every 6 months. Fun times. 

[YGIFS 19449]

3 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

i didn't put the last few pages of this thread on a political tack, others did.  And as per usual, I appreciate most of your inside takes on the industry.  Oil is political, except when it's not.  Which is never.  I'll hang up and listen.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, YGIFS said:

i didn't put the last few pages of this thread on a political tack, others did.  And as per usual, I appreciate most of your inside takes on the industry.  Oil is political, except when it's not.  Which is never.  I'll hang up and listen.

I’m trying to connect your post to oil folks here. I really don’t know what you’re talking about. 

[Okie State 3812]

I have no idea what it meant either.

[YGIFS 19449]

Just referencing some politics shit on page 110.  My mind wanders these days and every day for that matter.  We should certainly keep focusing on it for another dozen posts or so.  

Future Investment Initiative should prove most interesting this time around.  If any of y'all are in town for the TCU game, hit up the Energy tailgate.  It's a hoot sober.

[fattyflattie 4639]

12 hours ago, Archer said:

Mine started in 2016 and lasted to 2021 but I think it was 8 rounds. Averaged every 6 months. Fun times. 

Yeah I survived 7 (or 8 maybe) between ‘12 and ‘15.   The fat was gone after #2, and the rest just hurt.  Ironically, right at the end, they gave everyone that stayed quarterly retention bonus’  They were actually decent considering the times, 10k/per iirc. 

[UncleCharlie 334]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-25/west-texas-gas-prices-go-negative-for-first-time-in-2-years

[BabaBooey 131]

Buddy of mine that works for Phillips 66 here on the gulf coast said they received the dreaded email informing them of impending layoffs. Curious what brought this on? Kind of makes me feel better taking a position with ETC last year instead of them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Guest]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/freed-from-venezuelan-jail-houston-oil-executive-describes-being-used-as-a-bargaining-chip-11666485436
 

Wow. Wish Biden and Newsome would think before opening their fucking stupid mouths. 

[Storm the Field 5294]

On 10/26/2022 at 12:35 AM, BabaBooey said:

Buddy of mine that works for Phillips 66 here on the gulf coast said they received the dreaded email informing them of impending layoffs. Curious what brought this on? 

Pre-planned cuts it sounds like. They're currently making shitloads of money but planning for the future.

 

Quote

 

U.S. oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX.N) has begun reducing staff at several refineries, refined products terminals, and offices as part of a restructuring program, said two people familiar with the matter.

Phillips 66 spokesperson Bernardo Fallas confirmed that some jobs were being eliminated at the company.

"Phillips 66 is undergoing a companywide effort to optimize its cost structure and reimagine its operating model to enable sustainable savings," Fallas said.

The job cuts affect a small number of salaried employees in management and upper-level technical services workers at several locations. A small number of hourly workers also will lose their jobs, the people said.

Phillips 66 in July under new Chief Executive Mark Lashier said it would cut at least $700 million in expenses to "remain competitive in any market environment" and prepare for the transition to renewable and cleaner energies from fossil fuels.

 

 

[torre 1285]

OPEC statement today:    Seems to echo the statements by the oft criticized, but lovable @Porterhouse    🙂

(excerpts)

 

 OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium-and longer-term in an annual outlook released on Monday and said$12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand despite the energy transition.

The view from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2022 World Oil Outlook, contrasts with that of other forecasters which see oil demand reaching a plateau before2030 due to the rise of renewable energy and electric cars.

"The overall investment number for the oil sector is $12.1trillion out to 2045," OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report, which said the figure was up from last year's estimate.

"However, chronic underinvestment into the global oil industry in recent years, due to industry downturns, theCOVID-19 pandemic, as well as policies centred on ending financing in fossil fuel projects, is a major cause of concern.

"OPEC made a shift in 2020 when the pandemic hit demand, saying it would eventually slow after years of predicting ever-increasing consumption. In the report, OPEC maintained its view that world demand will plateau after 2035.Other predictions from companies and banks see oil demand peaking earlier.

The International Energy Agency on Thursday for the first time in its history of modelling said demand for all fossil fuels was set to peak, with oil demand levelling off in the middle of the next decade.

The report said world oil demand will reach 103 million barrels per day in 2023, up 2.7 million bpd from 2022. The 2023total demand is up 1.4 million bpd from last year's prediction.

OPEC also raised its demand forecasts for the medium term to2027, saying the figure is up by almost 2 million bpd by the end of the period from last year. It said the upward revision reflects a more robust recovery now seen in 2022 and 2023 and a "strong focus on energy security issues" leading to a slower substitution of oil by other fuels such as natural gas, whose price has soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

By 2030, OPEC sees world demand averaging 108.3 million bpd, up from 2021, and lifted its 2045 figure to 109.8 million bpd from 108.2 million bpd in 2021. The group had lowered the 2045projection over the last few years. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, are again cuttingsupply to support the market.

The report sees supply restraint continuing in the medium term, with OPEC output in 2027 lower than in 2022 as non-OPEC supply grows. Still, OPEC is upbeat about its later prospects, seeing its market share rising. U.S. tight crude supply is seen peaking after the late 2020s, rather than around 2030 last year. "Oil is expected to remain the number one fuel in the global primary energy mix," the report said.

OPEC raises long-term oil demand view, calls for investment | Reuters

 

 

[Guest]

11 hours ago, torre said:

OPEC statement today:    Seems to echo the statements by the oft criticized, but lovable @Porterhouse    🙂

(excerpts)

 

 OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium-and longer-term in an annual outlook released on Monday and said$12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand despite the energy transition.

The view from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2022 World Oil Outlook, contrasts with that of other forecasters which see oil demand reaching a plateau before2030 due to the rise of renewable energy and electric cars.

"The overall investment number for the oil sector is $12.1trillion out to 2045," OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report, which said the figure was up from last year's estimate.

"However, chronic underinvestment into the global oil industry in recent years, due to industry downturns, theCOVID-19 pandemic, as well as policies centred on ending financing in fossil fuel projects, is a major cause of concern.

"OPEC made a shift in 2020 when the pandemic hit demand, saying it would eventually slow after years of predicting ever-increasing consumption. In the report, OPEC maintained its view that world demand will plateau after 2035.Other predictions from companies and banks see oil demand peaking earlier.

The International Energy Agency on Thursday for the first time in its history of modelling said demand for all fossil fuels was set to peak, with oil demand levelling off in the middle of the next decade.

The report said world oil demand will reach 103 million barrels per day in 2023, up 2.7 million bpd from 2022. The 2023total demand is up 1.4 million bpd from last year's prediction.

OPEC also raised its demand forecasts for the medium term to2027, saying the figure is up by almost 2 million bpd by the end of the period from last year. It said the upward revision reflects a more robust recovery now seen in 2022 and 2023 and a "strong focus on energy security issues" leading to a slower substitution of oil by other fuels such as natural gas, whose price has soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

By 2030, OPEC sees world demand averaging 108.3 million bpd, up from 2021, and lifted its 2045 figure to 109.8 million bpd from 108.2 million bpd in 2021. The group had lowered the 2045projection over the last few years. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, are again cuttingsupply to support the market.

The report sees supply restraint continuing in the medium term, with OPEC output in 2027 lower than in 2022 as non-OPEC supply grows. Still, OPEC is upbeat about its later prospects, seeing its market share rising. U.S. tight crude supply is seen peaking after the late 2020s, rather than around 2030 last year. "Oil is expected to remain the number one fuel in the global primary energy mix," the report said.

OPEC raises long-term oil demand view, calls for investment | Reuters

 

 

I took a timeout because I got too political in this thread. My days here are numbered because I’ve been pretty critical of the functionality of the site. I’ll stop commenting on that, but it’ll probably just keep me from posting except for like once a week. I’ll comment on politics here when I want given it’s so intertwined with this business. Which could nuke my existence cuz them’s the rules, but whatever  

OPEC’s forecasts are reasonable.  I can see them being way too conservative or way too aggressive, because 2045 is a LONG way off.   IEA is a farce of an organization that takes the Greta Thunbergs of the world seriously. I don’t even read their work anymore. I read numerous researchers that openly poke fun, with data, at how asinine their predictions are while citing those predictions. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Porterhouse

[Incredulity 11652]

40 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

  IEA is a farce of an organization that takes the Greta Thunbergs of the world seriously. 

obligatory 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

Should have bought more XOM when I bought last at $35

[Storm the Field 5294]

Natty on an extreme roller-coaster the last 24 hours. Up 10.5% yesterday to $6.35, wiping out almost all of October losses in a single session. Down 9.5% today back to $5.75.

[txduck87 985]

1 hour ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Should have bought more XOM when I bought last at $35

I indirectly own alot in XLE. XOM is 23% of fund and CVX another 20%. Fund has a div rate of 4.25%. P/E ratio is relatively cheap at 14.  No plans to sell anytime soon.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by txduck87

[Incredulity 11652]

53 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Up 10.5% yesterday to $6.35, wiping out almost all of October losses in a single session. Down 9.5% today back to $5.75.

seems reasonable

 

[Loop 1604 227]

9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Natty on an extreme roller-coaster the last 24 hours. Up 10.5% yesterday to $6.35, wiping out almost all of October losses in a single session. Down 9.5% today back to $5.75.

[TxTower 650]

Natty on an extreme roller-coaster the last 24 hours. Up 10.5% yesterday to $6.35, wiping out almost all of October losses in a single session. Down 9.5% today back to $5.75.

Short squeeze got snuffed. Permian Basin Is swimming in the stuff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

Anybody know anything about COP moving their Permian Teams from Houston to Midland? I haven’t heard much about an expected mass exodus. 

[TxTower 650]

Natty on an extreme roller-coaster the last 4 days..,

Updated. I smell spec traders in the NG market.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Storm the Field 5294]

Know some guys at Ensign. Been working a long time to develop and flip that acreage since buying it from PXD 3 years ago. Good for them.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

On 10/26/2022 at 12:35 AM, BabaBooey said:

Buddy of mine that works for Phillips 66 here on the gulf coast said they received the dreaded email informing them of impending layoffs. Curious what brought this on? Kind of makes me feel better taking a position with ETC last year instead of them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

cut higher salaries for cheap college hires 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

14 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Know some guys at Ensign. Been working a long time to develop and flip that acreage since buying it from PXD 3 years ago. Good for them.

Its been a good two years for o/g 

Edited November 3, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[Eastwood 4394]

My condolences to anyone tied to Houston Ship Channel prices this week. What a beating. 

[TxTower 650]

From WSJ

Natural-Gas Supply Worries are Evaporating

Another big injection of natural gas into domestic storage facilities has brought U.S. inventories of the heating and power-generation fuel nearly inline with normal levels.


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[billfromlaketravis 11447]

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

cut higher salaries for cheap college hires 

[Storm the Field 5294]

WTI rippping today, up $4.50. 

G7 price cap on Russian oil came into clearer focus today and there was some chatter out of China about getting slightly less draconian on COVID.

[swraith 345]

On 11/3/2022 at 1:06 PM, TxTower said:

From WSJ

Natural-Gas Supply Worries are Evaporating

Another big injection of natural gas into domestic storage facilities has brought U.S. inventories of the heating and power-generation fuel nearly inline with normal levels.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And today natty ripped higher for an 8% gain in the prompt month.  If you have a crystal ball to trade the massive daily swings, there is a fortune to be made.

[Storm the Field 5294]

Whole country expecting a cold front later this week. Natty +11.1%. The thrill ride continues.

[Guest]

 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

thinking outside the box ...

 

[Hozz 1017]

France is going to have parking problems in 3-5 years.

[Armybrat 40822]

Poo on the Peugeot.

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

On 11/9/2022 at 9:01 PM, tx 3 putt said:

thinking outside the box ...

 

Shudder. They’ll figure real quick it’s too expensive and private companies will sue their way out. 
 

Covered parking everywhere does sound awesome though. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by billfromlaketravis