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936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11445

Posted
Posted
On 1/23/2023 at 5:42 PM, Storm the Field said:

Bout to be that time of year again. Less than 10 days until NAPE is once again upon us. Last year was the most fun in years after half a decade in the doldrums. Bakken party on Wednesday night last year was a downright rager. 

Looks like this year should be just about the same. Almost everyone I've seen is basically hosting the exact same events they did last year.

Good times. I should go ahead and take the following Friday off. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Lol. Are you serious?  PM Lobo/The Cruiser whatever his new user name is. 

Publicly traded commodities are volatile.  News at 11.  Only thing more reliable than that is you mentioning how you never mention me on a weekly basis.  That said, I do appreciate your energy markets insight. Have a good day sir.  

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5291

Posted
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23 hours ago, Captainant said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/chevron-announces-75-billion-stock-buyback-dividend-boost.html

Holy fucking shit! 75 BILLION in buybacks? 

Best year ever in the history of the company, with $36B in profits, but they had a "disappointing' Q4 so the stock is down 3.5% today. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19184

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Best year ever in the history of the company, with $36B in profits, but they had a "disappointing' Q4 so the stock is down 3.5% today. 

Stock was very overbought going into earnings so it’s a classic buy the rumor sell the news thing.  They could have announced they found a way to fuel cars via top soil and it would have sold off today. Same thing happened with SLB after their earnings.

Both stocks are going back up sooner rather than later. 

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52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
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6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Best year ever in the history of the company, with $36B in profits, but they had a "disappointing' Q4 so the stock is down 3.5% today. 

daily volatility is pretty meaningless for anyone who dont day trade.  tech has been going turbomode for this week so i wouldnt be surprised if a lot part of this was parties reaping the long-building performance from energy sector and rotating into tech. 

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52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted

Tangential story to oil due to hot topic of carbon-reduction: the dirty business of carbon market. 

Worlds ‘leading’ climate consultants and largest carbon trader misrepresented actual carbon reduction. It sold millions in offset credit without doing anything to reduce carbon. 
 

It renders the score that companies (including oil) track quite meaningless

 

https://www.ftm.eu/artikelen/south-pole-kariba-carbon-emission/kort?share=2i2zDjQkZddOBfNR//Uyy6fYGsXf9Iol8kwu/umhV0DhzqHwRsPBOt/ztYJMQxQ%3D#shortlong_switch
 

  • Hook 'Em 1
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52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

I'm very interested to see Exxon's year end earnings this week. Will it be in the same stratosphere of Chevron and what does it portend for midstreams and downstreams as they plan next years capital expenditure, etc.

AC17F1FD-C08E-4B9B-BE40-234A72A9620E.thumb.jpeg.033928d84e09a797cb0f60a6604a4103.jpeg
 

i got a big start YTD and tempted to

blow some of it gambling on natgas…

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5291

Posted
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1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

Anyone that was going to NAPE that is cancelling their trip because of the weather?

Just talked to a buddy in Midland that told me he moved his flight up to this afternoon. Flights scheduled for tomorrow are getting canceled.

Couple folks from our SA office are waiting until Thursday morning now to drive in.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Smoke Porterhouse staying at Bushwood for NAPE. And I could’ve gotten there and woken up with hangovers the next two mornings. Nah, I’ve got wax buildup to buff out with a fine chamois. 

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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/30/2023 at 9:21 AM, HamsterHookah said:

I'm very interested to see Exxon's year end earnings this week. Will it be in the same stratosphere of Chevron and what does it portend for midstreams and downstreams as they plan next years capital expenditure, etc.

Drinks on Exxon: In 2022, ExxonMobil posted the most profitable year of any Western oil company ever. Thanks to booming energy prices, Exxon made $56 billion in profit last year—equivalent to $6.3 million each hour, per Reuters. The mind-boggling earnings of Western oil giants, which are projected to have been ~$200 billion collectively last year, have also made them a political target for the Biden adminstration, which has blamed them for high gas prices.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-smashes-western-oil-majors-earnings-record-with-59-billion-profit-2023-01-31/

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Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 $2.50.

Back to late 2020/early 2021 price levels.

Averaged $3.27 for the month of January 2023, down from $5.53 in December 2022  and $7.88 in September 2022.

Why don’t you kick me in the balls instead of recapping this?

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5291

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O&G cannot catch a break this week. WTI was up $2 by 9:30, hit a wall and then floored it in reverse, now down $2.

The beatdown on nat gas continues unabated. 10 cents every single day lately.

China is re-opening faster than expected, US issues blowout jobs report this morning.

Energy traders: "This is terrible news for commodities."

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Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

O&G cannot catch a break this week. WTI was up $2 by 9:30, hit a wall and then floored it in reverse, now down $2.

The beatdown on nat gas continues unabated. 10 cents every single day lately.

China is re-opening faster than expected, US issues blowout jobs report this morning.

Energy traders: "This is terrible news for commodities."

I don’t get it. But I ain’t hedging. 

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BTW

BTW 370

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NAPE recap:

I'll start at end. I woke up Friday morning in MY hotel room, alone and wasn't wearing my suit jacket or shoes, so I count that as a win.

Limited it to Thursday AM - Friday AM from now on, this is the way.  Although I did hear that Ryan Bingham was pretty good at HOB Wednesday night, I do wish I had caught that.

Schedule as follows: 

Coffee meeting in Marriott Marquis Lobby (MM)

Coffee meeting at Uncommon Grounds

Lunch meeting back at MM 
HH #1 at Four Seasons bar (Little Midland)

HH #2 at Morton's

HH #3 back at Little Midland

HH #4 at Biggio's

HH #5 back at Little Midland

Dinner at Papa's Bros (original location)

Wake up at MM

I don't have any receipts or other evidence that I went anywhere after dinner, but I also haven't spoken to anyone I was with at dinner since then so who knows.

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10 hours ago, BTW said:

NAPE recap:

I'll start at end. I woke up Friday morning in MY hotel room, alone and wasn't wearing my suit jacket or shoes, so I count that as a win.

Limited it to Thursday AM - Friday AM from now on, this is the way.  Although I did hear that Ryan Bingham was pretty good at HOB Wednesday night, I do wish I had caught that.

Schedule as follows: 

Coffee meeting in Marriott Marquis Lobby (MM)

Coffee meeting at Uncommon Grounds

Lunch meeting back at MM 
HH #1 at Four Seasons bar (Little Midland)

HH #2 at Morton's

HH #3 back at Little Midland

HH #4 at Biggio's

HH #5 back at Little Midland

Dinner at Papa's Bros (original location)

Wake up at MM

I don't have any receipts or other evidence that I went anywhere after dinner, but I also haven't spoken to anyone I was with at dinner since then so who knows.

So glad I didn’t go. Yet, so sad. First time in 21 years. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
Posted
On 2/3/2023 at 11:20 AM, Storm the Field said:

O&G cannot catch a break this week. WTI was up $2 by 9:30, hit a wall and then floored it in reverse, now down $2.

The beatdown on nat gas continues unabated. 10 cents every single day lately.

China is re-opening faster than expected, US issues blowout jobs report this morning.

Energy traders: "This is terrible news for commodities."

Well of course oil is always all over the place for all sorts of reasons.

Gas fundamentals are shit right now. March storage gonna end the season WAY above 5-year average... October storage projections looking crazy high as well, even with Freeport coming back online and if we end up with another record power burn this summer.

Will be interesting to see if/when production falls off... seems like Haynesville could flatten out, but Permian I imagine will keep blowing and going as long as crude stays roughly where it is. Could be rough until 2025 when more LNG capacity comes online.

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1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Well of course oil is always all over the place for all sorts of reasons.

Gas fundamentals are shit right now. March storage gonna end the season WAY above 5-year average... October storage projections looking crazy high as well, even with Freeport coming back online and if we end up with another record power burn this summer.

Will be interesting to see if/when production falls off... seems like Haynesville could flatten out, but Permian I imagine will keep blowing and going as long as crude stays roughly where it is. Could be rough until 2025 when more LNG capacity comes online.

We are about to see massive declines in Haynesville and Marcellus. Massive, more impactful declines than the Barnett, with no Haynesville/Marcellus fields to backfill/offset those declines. That may take until 2025 to become apparent.  When that happens in combination with LNG capacity increases, I’ll be so horny. 

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Horns99

Horns99 155

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Posted
We are about to see massive declines in Haynesville and Marcellus. Massive, more impactful declines than the Barnett, with no Haynesville/Marcellus fields to backfill/offset those declines. That may take until 2025 to become apparent.  When that happens in combination with LNG capacity increases, I’ll be so horny. 

Agree on Marcellus, at least not growing, not sure about Massive declines though. Why do you think we will see massive declines in Haynesville ? They are still making $$$ at the summer curve prices. Plenty of drilling & fracking has been going on there. The big private equity guys, seem to still be going full bore up there.
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Posted
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40 minutes ago, Horns99 said:


Agree on Marcellus, at least not growing, not sure about Massive declines though. Why do you think we will see massive declines in Haynesville ? They are still making $$$ at the summer curve prices. Plenty of drilling & fracking has been going on there. The big private equity guys, seem to still be going full bore up there.

It’ll take awhile, maybe a few years, but it’ll become evident soon that we’ve drilled our best locations and the fields are in permanent decline. 

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52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
On 2/3/2023 at 6:20 PM, Storm the Field said:

The beatdown on nat gas continues unabated. 10 cents every single day lately.

10 cents on a single NG contract is $1,000 of cash value. Woof. Finally clawed back into the green shorting NG/QH…fun times 

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Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

It’ll take awhile, maybe a few years, but it’ll become evident soon that we’ve drilled our best locations and the fields are in permanent decline. 

I see spikes in crude and gas this summer. I’m backing off my $90 by February 2023 take. Because that was a stupid fucking call. 

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Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Russia announces it will cut 500K barrels of production a day as retaliation for price caps.

Me:

tumblr_oy3ag8jZZO1wzypxlo4_500.gifv

image.thumb.jpeg.4773891c99f1e2d38da4a520c0f3f134.jpegMy comrade.  Anyone tries and caps my cash flow, I’ll fully and unabashedly support this murdering thug. 

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52 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I guess they think higher prices will hurt EU and US economies.

Also entirely possible, if not likely, that it's a smokescreen and they don't have enough buyers or can't produce their stated quotas and would be cutting regardless, and trying to frame this as a punitive measure. 

 

They have a retaliatory attitude and don’t give a fuck. I appreciate that about them. I doubt they’re concerned about EU or us. They’re primarily concerned with getting the highest price possible for their benefit, and so am I. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27620

Posted
Posted
On 2/10/2023 at 11:44 AM, Porterhouse said:

image.thumb.jpeg.4773891c99f1e2d38da4a520c0f3f134.jpegMy comrade.  Anyone tries and caps my cash flow, I’ll fully and unabashedly support this murdering thug. 

Well, it's always nice when a poster finally is honest about their preference for money over human rights and self-determination. Good on ya!

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Guest

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Well, it's always nice when a poster finally is honest about their preference for money over human rights and self-determination. Good on ya!

It was a joke, replete with his cartoonish Kremlin-media-taken shirtless photo. Go back to CR. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5291

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

API and EIA with robust builds. Yeesh. 

That's one way to put it. EIA reported a crude build of nearly 16.3M barrels for the week. 4th largest of all time.

Apparently there was a very large adjustment factor built into the numbers this week so not a huge reaction thus far. WTI only down less than 2%. 

Interestingly, the 3rd largest build came only a month ago (+18.2M) and WTI actually gained 3.3% that day. 

 

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Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

That's one way to put it. EIA reported a crude build of nearly 16.3M barrels for the week. 4th largest of all time.

Apparently there was a very large adjustment factor built into the numbers this week so not a huge reaction thus far. WTI only down less than 2%. 

Interestingly, the 3rd largest build came only a month ago (+18.2M) and WTI actually gained 3.3% that day. 

 

The build has been partially offset by strong demand forecasts. I do believe we are about to have significant draws in the near term. 

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