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936horn

By 936horn
in Business and Markets

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Pescado_Rojo
Pescado_Rojo

I bet you could score a Lafayette 10 for a mani/pedi gift card and a pound of boudin right now.  I was sitting in a Starbucks by the med center in Laffy once, and a brand new white Escalade, lift

Rimbo
Rimbo

If you're Trump right now, you're watching Fox News, eating a cheeseburger, and getting mad about the lyin' media and preparing your next tweet about how some lupus treatment should be given to your s

fattyflattie
fattyflattie

My time finally came last Friday AM. I have survived around a dozen, give or take 1-2, since ‘08.  I was consulting for a project set to go in ‘22, but with all the uncertainty, it sounds like they’ve

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52-80

52-80 19147

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13 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

No joke.  That’s why you don’t hold natty over the weekend 

-15% now.  $0.45 down.  i imagine lots of people are getting blown out.

i actually sold (painfully) into the rally on friday, was holding short over the weekend, so it was a nice surprise for me :)

at the moment position is long at 2.644, trying to get a reversal playing with house money

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

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Posted (edited)

Golden Pass LNG down near Sabine Lake is pretty far along in construction and supposed to come online sometime next year. 

Sempra is supposed to be making a final investment decision on its proposed Port Arthur LNG facility sometime this month. Design process on the expansion of their Cameron LNG facility should be complete this summer.

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Posted
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15 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

Just curious - what surprised you?

He’s not. He just wanted everyone here to know he was privy to Capitol goings-on, as if TXOGA messaging at the Texas Capitol is somehow relevant to this thread. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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Sometimes TXOGA talks about production and water and logistics and midstream.  No reason to get butthurt dude.  They just took a much more wholistic approach to the media and non-involved legislators (or not as involved from years past I should say).  But yes, continue.  You're long on crude.  We all are.  Fascinating.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
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On 3/7/2023 at 9:14 PM, hornmpa96 said:

Just curious - what surprised you?

Anyway, it was just a lot more discussion of renewables than usual.  EV's, Electric kingpins, and solar.  Beyond usual lip service.  Actual partnerships and infrastructure discussions.  Just didn't expect that is all.  I think the panels are probably available for online viewing at this point.  But the in-Capitol talks also featured a lot more electric talk than I anticipated with the cameras off.  

Came out last night, good read:  https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/europe-wont-be-dependent-russian-oil-and-gas-again-official-says-204398

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Patricio Swayze

Patricio Swayze 17058

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I guess I am late to this, but just seeing Chesapeake sold off their Eagle Ford assets to INEOS for $1.4 billion. That doesn’t give me confidence that my current employer won’t do the same. I am used to project life and just wanted to stretch this until the end of the year. End of next year would be amazing, but I doubt it.

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Archer

Archer 474

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1 hour ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I guess I am late to this, but just seeing Chesapeake sold off their Eagle Ford assets to INEOS for $1.4 billion. That doesn’t give me confidence that my current employer won’t do the same. I am used to project life and just wanted to stretch this until the end of the year. End of next year would be amazing, but I doubt it.


CHK is going back to 2006 and going all in on gas and getting out of liquids. If your company hasn’t stated the same I wouldn’t be as concerned. 

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16 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

Anyone go to CERA week and have any feedback or unique experience? It was last week right?

SS in interviews with Sullivan effectively said the same thing I’ve been reading and posting for a year now. Which is validating. 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11448

Posted
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On 3/12/2023 at 8:04 PM, Patricio Swayze said:

I guess I am late to this, but just seeing Chesapeake sold off their Eagle Ford assets to INEOS for $1.4 billion. That doesn’t give me confidence that my current employer won’t do the same. I am used to project life and just wanted to stretch this until the end of the year. End of next year would be amazing, but I doubt it.

That seems pretty low. CHK had some fairly decent Eagle Ford acreage. 
 

I assume they’re all in on the Marcellus and Haynesville?

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

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13 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

That seems pretty low. CHK had some fairly decent Eagle Ford acreage. 

I thought so as well, compared to other recent deals, at least on a simple $/acre metric. Haven't done a deep dive to see how much actual daily production involved.

Marathon's deal to buy Ensign's EF acreage was $3B cash for 130K acres.

Baytex's deal to buy Ranger's EF acreage was  $2.5B cash (plus $650M debt assumption) for 162K acres.

Ineos Chesapeake was $1.4B cash for 172K acres.

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32 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

What’s going on…. WTI under $68 this morning?

Energy Department said last year they planned to refill the SPR around the $70 range. Oil had found decent support there since then, bouncing up when it touched that low. 
 

today…ouch

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On 3/17/2023 at 9:20 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, crude is getting clowned hard.

We will see if it sticks around. Happy to see one less pressure point on inflation.

It won’t. We will gradually get back to $80 and then break out, probably in summer, in a big way. 

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HamsterHookah

HamsterHookah 112

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

It won’t. We will gradually get back to $80 and then break out, probably in summer, in a big way. 

Not according to Goldman Sachs, today, at least.

Quote

Goldman Sachs scraps its forecast of $100-a-barrel oil prices. Analysts at the bank, which had been especially bullish on oil prices, cited fears of a global recession and the recent stock market volatility in cutting their prediction. The Brent crude global benchmark has fallen nearly 20 percent over the past two weeks and currently trades at about $70 a barrel.

 

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59 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

GS forecast for Brent is now only $94, and $97 for 2024..

So like $85/$90 or TI?  Yeah, that’s not “scrapping” a $100 forecast. That’s reducing it by 15%. 

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BTW

BTW 370

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I really wish I had started keeping track of GS's crude price forecasts vs the actual outcome over the years.  I believe a handsome sum could have been made by trading the opposite of what they predict.  I don't know how bad they've been, but I'd wager it's worse than a coin flip.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

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Posted (edited)
On 3/6/2023 at 11:06 AM, Storm the Field said:

Sempra is supposed to be making a final investment decision on its proposed Port Arthur LNG facility sometime this month.

Port Arthur LNG was officially greenlit yesterday.

https://www.sempra.com/sempra-launches-port-arthur-lng-project

Edited by Storm the Field
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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

Posted
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On 3/7/2023 at 6:07 PM, BabaBooey said:

I know my employer (ET) is converting our Lake Charles LNG location to export. Not sure when that's supposed to crank up. 

TBD but most of the consulting firms (WoodMac, S&P, etc.) have Lake Charles coming online 2028ish or so.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

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Have some clients in the Haynesville. Some are definitely scaling back their rig schedules (from what they were planning 6 months ago), if not pausing entirely. Some are just drilling what DUC's they need to keep leases alive. They've been operating under low natty prices for years, so play it conservatively regardless.

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Patricio Swayze

Patricio Swayze 17058

Posted
Posted
Have some clients in the Haynesville. Some are definitely scaling back their rig schedules (from what they were planning 6 months ago), if not pausing entirely. Some are just drilling what DUC's they need to keep leases alive. They've been operating under low natty prices for years, so play it conservatively regardless.

Sounds like my company in the EF. Dropping a rig next month. Bought some DUCs and might just flip them.
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Armybrat

Armybrat 40822

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Continental Resources is preparing to drill 22 wells in “our” North Dakota spacing (Montrail & McKenzie Counties). 
Spud in is scheduled for August. 
Supposedly a $200 million investment.
Guess we will see some more royalty $$ by early next year. 
 

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2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Continental Resources is preparing to drill 22 wells in “our” North Dakota spacing (Montrail & McKenzie Counties). 
Spud in is scheduled for August. 
Supposedly a $200 million investment.
Guess we will see some more royalty $$ by early next year. 
 

Spudding in August?  I presume you wouldn’t see increased $ until at least August ‘24. 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11448

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4 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Continental Resources is preparing to drill 22 wells in “our” North Dakota spacing (Montrail & McKenzie Counties). 
Spud in is scheduled for August. 
Supposedly a $200 million investment.
Guess we will see some more royalty $$ by early next year. 
 

Goddamned army. I love and hate you at the same time. I hope some great grandkids are entering the work force debt free. 

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10 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Depends, I guess, if they can get the frickin’ fracin” done in a reasonable time.

I own Continental royalties. They take awhile to get in pay. Even if all 22 wells come on production before year-end (unlikely), they’re still gonna wait about 120 days to pay you. And with 22 wells there’s probably at least 5 units there. Your cash flow will grow in chunks, probably, over the course of ‘24. 

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Armybrat

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Yes, that’s what they did several years ago after the other dozen wells were completed in our other mineral spacing. 
We have just a very small share of family mineral acreage that has been under Lake Sakakawea since the 1950s. 
Great Uncle Frank farmed about 260 acres (in two parts) by the Missouri River for the first half of the 20th Century. 
Good thing the Feds forgot to take the mineral rights when they eminent domained his place to put in that lake. 
The smaller part of his farm area was the first to be drilled several years ago, now Continental is just getting around to drilling the larger part.

I might buy a big hat if it pays off.

Edited by Armybrat
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35 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 

For the life of me I can’t understand why this was the catalyst for tremendously low gas prices. Rather I don’t understand why we are still so low. 

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