Hey Oil Barons.......

[Armybrat 40820]

2 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

I don’t know WTF is going on with gas. 

Gas-X

[Guest]

4 hours ago, nbmishoid said:

Porter - check your satire meter.  Merely reflecting on XOM’s last mega mistake

I loved those years. Mostly well but had a meltdown. Welcome back to the Board. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

Maybe that moron at OXY will make a better offer.

[JimmyTwoTimes 79]

Gas can’t rally meaningfully, to do so would encourage production increases and discourage power burn share, both of which would contribute to the probability of a congestion event later this summer. WTI rallying only exacerbates the issue. Freeport feed gas at record levels, can’t get more bullish than that until it breaks again. BOIL holders will feel the roll pain. It will be a long 2023 for natty.

[HamsterHookah 112]

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Maybe that moron at OXY will make a better offer.

Speaking of OXY, read this fascinating piece in the WSJ:

Quote

 

About fifty miles southwest of Midland, Texas, deep in the oil-saturated Permian Basin, more than 100 workers are busy laying out roads and water lines, preparing to build an elaborate complex of fans, each as large as a tennis court. 

When they start running in 2024, the fans will suck massive amounts of carbon dioxide out of the air. The carbon will be funneled thousands of feet down deep wells into geological formations, where it should remain for centuries. 

The company behind this environmental moonshot is Occidental Petroleum Corp., OXY 0.73%increase; green up pointing triangle one of the country’s most successful oil-and-gas producers. It hopes the enterprise will give it license to keep operating as a driller decades into the future. 

It is spending more than $1 billion to build the first in a planned fleet of plants using direct-air capture to pull the CO2 out of the air, a budding technology with fuzzy economics. Bolstering the move are generous tax incentives included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last year that cover up to 45% of Occidental’s expected initial costs per metric ton. 

Chief Executive Vicki Hollub, who has the blessing of the company’s largest investor, Warren Buffett, said the plan will help it reach net-zero emissions on all its operations, its own energy use and its customers’ use of its products, by 2050, and allow it to keep investing in oil extraction.

Removing CO2 from the atmosphere at this scale has never been done before, and the enterprise comes with abundant commercial and scientific uncertainties. It is unclear what the appetite for carbon removal will be, how much the service will eventually cost or how massive volumes of buried carbon dioxide will affect the subsurface in the long term.

Occidental plans to make money with the CO2 removal plant by selling carbon-dioxide removal credits to companies such as airlines, trucking and marine companies that can’t currently switch to clean energy without breaking their business models. It also plans to turn some of the carbon dioxide into products to sell, including synthetic jet fuel, or use it in the process of pumping what the company calls net-zero oil from its own wells that it hopes to sell at a premium.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by HamsterHookah

[fattyflattie 4639]

24 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

Speaking of OXY, read this fascinating piece in the WSJ:

 

Yep.  It's been the big joke lately from several of my OXY buddies.  I can't tell if they think it's dumb, unwarranted, or just purposely being vague about their feelings.  Too busy blaming them for killing the stros to get a straight answer. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

But ESG isn't important at all to O&G companies, or so I was told.  Lucky for them that taxpayers are footing 45% of the bill.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

But ESG isn't important at all to O&G companies, or so I was told.  Lucky for them that taxpayers are footing 45% of the bill.

You clearly haven’t read my posts carefully or care to characterize them with any hint of accuracy. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

4 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

You clearly haven’t read my posts carefully or care to characterize them with any hint of accuracy. 

Damn Rex, you're supposed to wait until your next meltdown and get blacklab to delete all your posts before implementing the "I never said that" tactic.  It's not as effective when the evidence is still in the open.

 

On 3/30/2023 at 2:32 PM, Porterhouse said:

ESG is about as dead a topic as there is. 

 

On 3/30/2023 at 3:19 PM, Porterhouse said:

It’s fading and fast. It used to be the main talking point from ‘19-‘22 and now it’s truly a lip service item.

But have a "laugh" rep for the audacity.

 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Damn Rex, you're supposed to wait until your next meltdown and get blacklab to delete all your posts before implementing the "I never said that" tactic.  It's not as effective when the evidence is still in the open.

 

 

But have a "laugh" rep for the audacity.

 

In my world, ESG is 100% dead. In talks I go to, it’s used by publics as lip service, and isn’t even discussed by privates. For public companies, it is something they pay attention to, but that’s not the world I play in. In short, I stand by every post I made. You just failed to post my public/private distinction, because you do what you do. 

Edited April 13, 2023 by Porterhouse

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

So now the goal posts have moved to "the world you play in".  Funny that was never mentioned in your original posts... because you do what you do.  Guess we are supposed to read your mind.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

So now the goal posts have moved to "the world you play in".  Funny that was never mentioned in your original posts... because you do what you do.  Guess we are supposed to read your mind.

Not really. I imagine ESG talk has died considerably for most people in this thread.  The narrative has changed over the years from “ESG” to “the energy transition” to people openly saying we can’t have the transition that organizations/politicians want us to have, so let’s focus on de-carbonization, to capital coming back into the industry because returns are fantastic. ESG simply doesn’t come up. I speak for the world I play in because it’s what I know. 

You could offer your perspective instead of being critical of mine, like I’m just pulling it out of thin air. 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Ugh…we briefly peaked at 4 rigs in our business unit last summer. Currently at 3, but by end of the month 2 and most likely by the end of the summer 1. Gas prices need to unfuck themselves.

[HamsterHookah 112]

19 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Not really. I imagine ESG talk has died considerably for most people in this thread.  The narrative has changed over the years from “ESG” to “the energy transition” to people openly saying we can’t have the transition that organizations/politicians want us to have, so let’s focus on de-carbonization, to capital coming back into the industry because returns are fantastic. ESG simply doesn’t come up. I speak for the world I play in because it’s what I know. 

You could offer your perspective instead of being critical of mine, like I’m just pulling it out of thin air. 

I appreciate your perspective and experience. Mine is a bit different, I just got back from Houston and two full days of meetings with a large, publicly traded midstream company with its origins in Enron (wink wink), where I can attest that ESG is a board/C-level hot button issue that they are activated around. Not only Scope 1-3 but more interestingly the DEI stuff (the “S” in ESG most people forget about) is still a metric that they care about positively growing. 

My experiences and interactions differ considerably than yours and probably the people we interface with and their goals are different. I’m corporate focused and care about increasing earnings per share, versus dyed-in-wool oilman stuff or field operations.

Edited April 14, 2023 by HamsterHookah

[Guest]

38 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Ugh…we briefly peaked at 4 rigs in our business unit last summer. Currently at 3, but by end of the month 2 and most likely by the end of the summer 1. Gas prices need to unfuck themselves.

I fear they won’t in ‘23. Too much associated gas in Permian. I’m probably more long-term bullish on gas than oil, but totally the opposite in the short term. 

[Captainant 27625]

54 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

I appreciate your perspective and experience. Mine is a bit different, I just got back from Houston and two full days of meetings with a large, publicly traded midstream company with its origins in Enron (wink wink), where I can attest that ESG is a board/C-level hot button issue that they are activated around. Not only Scope 1-3 but more interestingly the DEI stuff (the “S” in ESG most people forget about) is still a metric that they care about positively growing. 

Sidenote - if anyone wants to know about a modern carbon reporting data infrastructure let me know, I contributed to a workshop for a conference and ran it for a couple hundred participants last year that ingests raw data like fleet fuel usage and facility electric usage, cross references the EPA CO2e tables and modifiers, and then calculates and stores scope 1/2/3 emissions in a data lake for querying, reporting, and analytics. There's some interesting use cases around getting a step ahead of carbon reporting requirements and then surfacing that data back to your customers as a value-add

Edited April 14, 2023 by Captainant

[YGIFS 19449]

I would very much like to have a look at that.  

[HamsterHookah 112]

49 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I would very much like to have a look at that.  

Same. 1000% agree with you when you say “There's some interesting use cases around getting a step ahead of carbon reporting requirements and then surfacing that data back to your customers as a value-add”

[52-80 19142]

On 4/14/2023 at 7:43 PM, HamsterHookah said:

I appreciate your perspective and experience. Mine is a bit different, I just got back from Houston and two full days of meetings with a large, publicly traded midstream company with its origins in Enron (wink wink), where I can attest that ESG is a board/C-level hot button issue that they are activated around. Not only Scope 1-3 but more interestingly the DEI stuff (the “S” in ESG most people forget about) is still a metric that they care about positively growing. 

My experiences and interactions differ considerably than yours and probably the people we interface with and their goals are different. I’m corporate focused and care about increasing earnings per share, versus dyed-in-wool oilman stuff or field operations.

Some major companies in this field have as recent as <1,2 years, brought in (or promoted) for the first time ever ESG-centric officers to its top level of management.  Chevron, for example, still have low-carbon as a headline business directive and various carbon-intensity measures as corporate targets.

[tx 3 putt 76865]

On 4/7/2023 at 3:43 PM, Storm the Field said:

Stories out today that XOM has held preliminary talks to buy PXD for nearly $50B.

Holy hell.

Exxon has moneY to burn

 

[Grimas 669]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Some major companies in this field have as recent as <1,2 years, brought in (or promoted) for the first time ever ESG-centric officers to its top level of management.  Chevron, for example, still have low-carbon as a headline business directive and various carbon-intensity measures as corporate targets.

EU based companies must have "green"/carbon strategies in place in order to be able to borrow funds for projects.  Wanna borrow $1B for a platform?  Better have a green energy policy in place...

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4974]

ESG=equatorially situated 'ginas? So Asian snatch? Or am I reading this wrong?

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

Wow, you are so clever.  I assume you thought that was even remotely funny when you posted?

[Guest]

On 4/16/2023 at 6:44 PM, Grimas said:

EU based companies must have "green"/carbon strategies in place in order to be able to borrow funds for projects.  Wanna borrow $1B for a platform?  Better have a green energy policy in place...

That’s why they’re vastly underperforming. It’s pathetic. 

[Guest]

On 4/7/2023 at 3:43 PM, Storm the Field said:

Stories out today that XOM has held preliminary talks to buy PXD for nearly $50B.

Holy hell.

That is their market cap (it’s $53B). They wouldn’t sell for anything less than $70B. And I heard some info today that would lead me to believe it’s not likely. PXD certainly approaching it with banker-generated smoke. 

[Storm the Field 5291]

36 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

That is their market cap (it’s $53B). They wouldn’t sell for anything less than $70B. And I heard some info today that would lead me to believe it’s not likely. PXD certainly approaching it with banker-generated smoke. 

Yeah, I've heard the $70B number since the initial story leaked as well. That's a spicy meatball.

[Guest]

With this runup in gas I am seriously considering gas hedges. I don’t believe we will really stay here. I’ve become quite bearish over the next 18 or so months. 

[nbmishoid 949]

21 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

That’s why they’re vastly underperforming. It’s pathetic. 

P

I don’t think that is clearly linked.   CVX was mentioned above.  The last 2 chairmen have made esg equivalent strategies top priorities.  And CVX has not underperformed.  XOM has been, typically, a bit behind this curve.   And they have underperformed.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, nbmishoid said:

P

I don’t think that is clearly linked.   CVX was mentioned above.  The last 2 chairmen have made esg equivalent strategies top priorities.  And CVX has not underperformed.  XOM has been, typically, a bit behind this curve.   And they have underperformed.

XOM hasn’t underperformed. CVX and XOM have vastly outperformed BP and Shell and it’s very much because of the latter two’s insistence on ESG initiatives. 

[babysdaddy 2719]

On 4/18/2023 at 10:27 AM, Porterhouse said:

That is their market cap (it’s $53B). They wouldn’t sell for anything less than $70B. And I heard some info today that would lead me to believe it’s not likely. PXD certainly approaching it with banker-generated smoke. 

Hmm, guess we were at the same breakfast

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2731]

[nbmishoid 949]

15 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

XOM hasn’t underperformed. CVX and XOM have vastly outperformed BP and Shell and it’s very much because of the latter two’s insistence on ESG initiatives. 

5 yr chart is a layover.   10 yr very much in CVX favor.  One could speculate later and insincere adoption of esg type strategies hurt XOM in comparison.  Who knows, but it can’t be said it hurt CVX, so as a general rule one cannot say these ideas hurt.  Like being honest, respectful of local communities, etc.  

 

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

5 yr chart is a layover.   10 yr very much in CVX favor.  One could speculate later and insincere adoption of esg type strategies hurt XOM in comparison.  Who knows, but it can’t be said it hurt CVX, so as a general rule one cannot say these ideas hurt.  Like being honest, respectful of local communities, etc.  

 

I don’t think that hurts one bit. I’m talking about Euro majors going way overboard, and cutting capex (significantly) of core business and reinvesting fossil fuel cash flow into renewables efforts. By any metric Shell and BP and Total have vastly underperformed their American major counterparts. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

Back under $70 again.  Oh great.

[Storm the Field 5291]

54 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Back under $70 again.  Oh great.

Getting comically oversold. Shorts get aggressive every time the word "bank" gets uttered in financial markets.

Had stabilized pretty well around $75 the last 2 weeks. Then FRC, who's been shaky since the initial bank panic in March, finally gives up the ghost and gets their bones picked by JMP and it's time to panic.

Inventory reports still consistently showing solid crude draws, and it's not even summer driving season yet. Of course, traders wipe their asses with inventory reports lately.

[HamsterHookah 112]

Been listening to Q1 earning reports this week-- all these O&G/Energy companies had great Q1's....

[Guest]

10 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Getting comically oversold. Shorts get aggressive every time the word "bank" gets uttered in financial markets.

Had stabilized pretty well around $75 the last 2 weeks. Then FRC, who's been shaky since the initial bank panic in March, finally gives up the ghost and gets their bones picked by JMP and it's time to panic.

Inventory reports still consistently showing solid crude draws, and it's not even summer driving season yet. Of course, traders wipe their asses with inventory reports lately.

Pretty much my exact feelings. I’ve got a guy trying to buy something from me and his bids are changing by the hour. I’ve stopped engaging him and am just rolling my eyes. The drop in crude is ridiculous and will be totally erased by Memorial Day.  We’ll be $100 by the summer. 

Gas is fucked for a while. 

[tequila 317]

3 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Pretty much my exact feelings. I’ve got a guy trying to buy something from me and his bids are changing by the hour. I’ve stopped engaging him and am just rolling my eyes. The drop in crude is ridiculous and will be totally erased by Memorial Day.  We’ll be $100 by the summer. 

Gas is fucked for a while. 

In industry as well. Don’t know how long you’ve been in the business, but I am extremely skeptical of your last sentence, first paragraph.  I’m curious where you think the broader economy shores up oil markets when we’re seeing significant, repetitive draws on inventory over the last 5 weeks and we’ve seen oil consistently tick down.  Frankly, I’d think that an overheated economy would provide support for oil markets and what we’re seeing real time is that although inflation still seems to be an issue (given the Fed’s rate increase) oil prices are down considerably. IMHO, this is so freaking counter intuitive, as cost of real goods/inputs/in-elastic products should trade in lock step with inflation as opposed to being negatively correlated, which is what we’re seeing with oil vs inflation right now.  The fundamentals have no impact on the trade at this point… until they do.

Edited May 4, 2023 by tequila

[The Royal We 3067]

10 hours ago, tequila said:

In industry as well. Don’t know how long you’ve been in the business, but I am extremely skeptical of your last sentence, first paragraph.  I’m curious where you think the broader economy shores up oil markets when we’re seeing significant, repetitive draws on inventory over the last 5 weeks and we’ve seen oil consistently tick down.  Frankly, I’d think that an overheated economy would provide support for oil markets and what we’re seeing real time is that although inflation still seems to be an issue (given the Fed’s rate increase) oil prices are down considerably. IMHO, this is so freaking counter intuitive, as cost of real goods/inputs/in-elastic products should trade in lock step with inflation as opposed to being negatively correlated, which is what we’re seeing with oil vs inflation right now.  The fundamentals have no impact on the trade at this point… until they do.

I don't understand it all as much as you do, but I REALLY don't understand how the fundamentals mean fuckall at this point. Unless oil has become a leading indicator of the economy and we are headed for real trouble with issues in banking + inflation finally pushing us into a painful recession.

Porterhouse has been trying to speak $100/bbl into existence for a long time on here now. It won't become true just because you keep typing it...

[Guest]

I could be early but I won’t be wrong. The economy is clearly in recession but outside of the pandemic, oil prices have risen in every recession since ‘73. Pretty soon, the supply story will start to drown out the bad economic headlines.  And I predict we will recover to $75 fairly quickly in May and summer driving season will propel us  

And I was absolutely right for much of ‘22. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porterhouse

[tbone_ 14106]

Why is gas so high again if oil is at $70?

Is the cliff note answer just because?

[Storm the Field 5291]

16 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Why is gas so high again if oil is at $70?

Is the cliff note answer just because?

Pump prices are far more correlated with RBOB gasoline futures than with Crude. RBOB has fallen from $2.81 in mid-April to $2.33 today. Pump prices tend to SLOWLY head in the same direction as RBOB. Should bleed off a couple pennies each day over the next week or so.

Always worth a quick search on gasbuddy to find the cheapest station in your zip code.

https://www.gasbuddy.com/home

[52-80 19142]

1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

Why is gas so high again if oil is at $70?

Is the cliff note answer just because?

oil price is aint oil until the barrels get delivered (cue the "fundamentals").  quoted price you see is based on trading in the futures market, which is price of delivery based on contractual agreement, an agreement which can appear and disappear, as speculators close out or roll their positions.  its really trading of paper, not of oil.

price of gas is stock that is already in storage tanks, has already been refined, has already been finished and delivered, and has already been paid for. 

so there's an obvious time lag and difference in tangibility of something thats ready to be pumped in your tank, versus a speculated price for June 2023 west texas intermediate (the current benchmark crude future contract traded on the ny mercantile exchange)

[Cleo McDowell 20]

3 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

I could be early but I won’t be wrong. The economy is clearly in recession but outside of the pandemic, oil prices have risen in every recession since ‘73. Pretty soon, the supply story will start to drown out the bad economic headlines.  And I predict we will recover to $75 fairly quickly in May and summer driving season will propel us  

And I was absolutely right for much of ‘22. 

You could be early? you've been predicting $90 oil since January (with certainty) and that still hasn't happened...

 

On 1/12/2023 at 12:19 PM, Porterhouse said:

End of Jan. Certainly at some point in Feb if not Jan. 

[LonghornJones 837]

...2024

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Cleo McDowell said:

You could be early? you've been predicting $90 oil since January (with certainty) and that still hasn't happened...

 

Yeah I’ve been surprised we’ve been this low. We hit $81 and change after I posted that in late January and $83 and change fewer than 90 days later with a banking crisis in the middle. Forgive me if I don’t apologize for my boldness on a message board. I will continue to be proven correct, and very much directionally correct, and don’t care if my timing is a little off. I also would expect a little dispensation for black swan events. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Porterhouse

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

My company modeled out $80 WTI for all of 2023. I can almost hear my bonus and raise getting bjorked. 
 

Oh well, I’m in my 30s and I’ve probably worked my last Friday of my career if I stay put. 

Edited May 5, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[Guest]

On 4/19/2023 at 11:23 AM, babysdaddy said:

Hmm, guess we were at the same breakfast

Just noticed this. You talking about the father /son bank sponsored deal?

And hang on, did you moderate it?

Edited May 5, 2023 by Porterhouse

[babysdaddy 2719]

2 hours ago, Porterhouse said:

Just noticed this. You talking about the father /son bank sponsored deal?

And hang on, did you moderate it?

I was there but was not moderating.  

[Guest]

5 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

I was there but was not moderating.  

I bet we know each other. It was a good talk I thought.