Hey Oil Barons.......

[52-80 19142]

On 9/6/2024 at 3:50 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not to get cr but one of the presidential candidates promised <$2 gasoline presumably for their entire term. Would that spook some traders?

 

No. Because outside of doing a direct subsidy a la Kuwait (which wouldnt pass), politicians dont have the direct ability to effect a change of that magnitude for that duration.

 

 

[orange dream 1246]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

No. Because outside of doing a direct subsidy a la Kuwait (which wouldnt pass), politicians dont have the direct ability to effect a change of that magnitude for that duration.

 

 

Full CR...

unlike the candidates we have to choose from this photo contains two solid choices vs. none

[Storm the Field 5291]

WTI back above $70 by a few dimes and pennies. Up about 4% on the week despite crashing to $65 on Tuesday.

[swraith 345]

IEA comments on global demand  

[Rex Kramer 1331]

8 hours ago, swraith said:

IEA comments on global demand  

One of the dumbest organizations out there. They’ve been saying this for years and constantly revise their demand projections upwards. They long ago lost all credibility. I’m not sure how anyone can take them seriously or even read their bullshit. 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

Really hate when experts revise their predictions constantly.

[Storm the Field 5291]

WTI $72.35 (2 week high) and Natty at $2.42 (3 month high). Decent little win streak after the oversold panic at the beginning of the month.

[billfromlaketravis 11445]

I’m starting to think the IEA is controlled by oil and gas traders (duh).They need markets to move, so they press a button and IEA releases some peak oil bullshit press release. 
 

Meanwhile, the plebs suffer while oil traders are doing lines off of strippers’ asses on ChiTownDoc’s yacht in Miami. This latest bullshit put a dent in my bonus. 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

Well both put Sharpies in their butts

[52-80 19142]

Generally bearish and pessimistic comments from executives in responding to Dallas Fed’s survey. 

Many expected depressed prices in cl and ng

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2024/2403#tab-comments

(of course, 1 opinion, even from a big wig, is still just 1 opinion weighted against the entire market)

[Royalfan5 2353]

Allegedly the Saudis are abandoning their price target for production increases.  

[Rex Kramer 1331]

1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

Allegedly the Saudis are abandoning their price target for production increases.  

It’ll be interesting how sustainably long term an output increase for them will be. Kazakhstan also not curbing production. I happen to think this is a massive market overreaction but you get that a lot when SA is involved. 

[Dr Fear 1268]

The combined Chesapeake and SWN is going to be called Expand Energy??? Woof.

[The Royal We 3067]

 

I hope they didn't pay consultants too much to help them come up with that.

Edited September 27 by The Royal We

[Rex Kramer 1331]

Gas making a move flirting with $3 handle. Only 7% over 5-year average storage levels. If we have any kind of winter we are gonna jump. Natty demand will outstrip temporary supply glut, and the structural deficit will be evident at some point in ‘25. 

[Incredulity 11645]

3 hours ago, The Royal We said:

 

I hope they didn't pay consultants too much to help them come up with that.

Years ago I heard a story of a brand consultant getting a million dollars to recommend to Circle K they should rebrand a chain of stores they bought in Indiana(bigfoot) to....Circle K

 

[billfromlaketravis 11445]

On 9/26/2024 at 11:24 AM, Dr Fear said:

The combined Chesapeake and SWN is going to be called Expand Energy??? Woof.

Somehow still better than Permian Resources and Chord. 
 

SWN has a really nice building off of 45 in Houston. I wonder if they sell it and move everybody to Duke West in OKC? 

Edited September 29 by billfromlaketravis

[Storm the Field 5291]

Hess CEO gets the Sheffield treatment. Will not be allowed to join the CVX board in order for the merger to proceed.

Quote

 

The Federal Trade Commission has banned Hess Corp. CEO John Hess from Chevrons board as a condition for the oil companies’ $53 billion merger to move forward.

The FTC on Monday alleged that Hess communicated with OPEC representatives about global oil output and inventory management over the years, encouraging them to take action that supports higher prices.

 

 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2935]

This Sarah Stogner seems like a real cunt actually. The LinkedIn saga is fun to follow though. My guess is she’s going to end up in jail or have her law license revoked within the next few months.

[Rex Kramer 1331]

40 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

This Sarah Stogner seems like a real cunt actually. The LinkedIn saga is fun to follow though. My guess is she’s going to end up in jail or have her law license revoked within the next few months.

She’s an attention whore and I’m suspicious of anything she writes. It’s funny Chevron pulled an Emergency TRO and she and her weirdo partner continue to post that and all these petitions. They’re antagonizing them. Chevron cited in their latest filing this was the direct result of social media threats. They’re making enemies all over the industry. They’ll never get elected. 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2935]

13 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

She’s an attention whore and I’m suspicious of anything she writes. It’s funny Chevron pulled an Emergency TRO and she and her weirdo partner continue to post that and all these petitions. They’re antagonizing them. Chevron cited in their latest filing this was the direct result of social media threats. They’re making enemies all over the industry. They’ll never get elected. 

Yeah I saw that too. I have no idea what her and “Hawk” are thinking. It’s hilarious that Chevron came with receipts on the TRO filing- then Sarah the attention whore goes and blasts it all over social media looking for support in their ongoing fight against big bad oil while crying “lawfare.” They are both fucking morons and the landowner is just as stupid retaining them as their legal representation team vs. CVX and local Permian independents like Pitts and Williams.

“Hawk” has zero shot at being elected to RRC commissioner, especially after this shitshow playing out in the public realm. A total dumpster fire.
 

 

[Rex Kramer 1331]

How do I start a fake LinkedIn Profile to fuck with them?

[jeevsie 3733]

It's the same as starting a fake Surly handle.  It's possible you can figure it out.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2935]

3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

How do I start a fake LinkedIn Profile to fuck with them?

Just use a burner email. Would be absolute gold!

[StassneyHorn 6573]

9 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

How do I start a fake LinkedIn Profile to fuck with them?

Nobody listens to you now, try that one

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

On 9/5/2024 at 7:12 AM, Rex Kramer said:

That’s not accurate. We have moved well over $90 several times in the last year. The SPR release in mid 2022 is the reason we moved down from $100 in 3Q’22 after spending about 5 months above it. 

We hit $93 exactly one year ago.  Since then, the highest we have seen on any bounce is $88.

Where exactly is this "well over $90"?

[Rex Kramer 1331]

29 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We hit $93 exactly one year ago.  Since then, the highest we have seen on any bounce is $88.

Where exactly is this "well over $90"?

We spent a lot of September 2023 above it. I posted that a month ago.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

One month with a high of $93 does not equal ‘well over $90 several times’. Are you counting every tick above $90.00 on a 1s basis in your bucket of‘several’?

[Rex Kramer 1331]

On 9/5/2024 at 6:15 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

We went over $100 in 2022 due to the initial reaction to the Ukraine war. We haven’t sniffed $100 since. 

The above post is what you said, which is where my response a month ago came from. I pretty quickly gave you reasons why this was wrong. I cited we had crossed $90 several times in the last year (not to mention the last two years) because we had in the trailing 12 months ended 9/5/2024. Also, exactly one year ago, we were trading at $90, spent pretty much the entire month of October 2023 over the $88 you cite was the high watermark in the last 12 months, and we also averaged over $85 in April 2024, including spending every trading day in the first half of April ‘24 well over $85. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

$85 != well over $90

[Rex Kramer 1331]

23 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

$85 != well over $90

No, spending like 30 days over $90 is over $90. I’m done with this discussion. You’re about to be Stassney’ed. 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

He doesn’t have me on ignore and he won’t put you on it either for posting his horrible inaccuracies.

[Storm the Field 5291]

WTI $77 and Brent back to $81, both of which are 6-week highs. 

Nat Gas briefly flirted with $3 on Friday, but has pulled back since to $2.75. Just can't seem to break out, been pretty much stuck between $1.75 and $3.25 for going on 18 months now.

Edited October 7 by Storm the Field

[Rex Kramer 1331]

18 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

WTI $77 and Brent back to $81, both of which are 6-week highs. 

Nat Gas briefly flirted with $3 on Friday, but has pulled back since to $2.75. Just can't seem to break out, been pretty much stuck between $1.75 and $3.25 for going on 18 months now.

Maybe you should stop posting.

[Storm the Field 5291]

You first.

[CycleTex87 2965]

My dad used to say back in the early '80s "if we could only have $2 gas, we'd all get rich".  And there it is!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but we're not rich.

[billfromlaketravis 11445]

Houston traffic makes strange friends. I spent 45 minutes explaining to an Uber hybrid driver why natural gas was good. 
 

Here’s a byproduct of WTI production that we should be using to fuel our Scarlett Johansson nude searches, but Google won’t use it because it came from some fossils.

[StassneyHorn 6573]

They weren’t listening

[52-80 19142]

On 10/7/2024 at 8:55 PM, Storm the Field said:

WTI $77 and Brent back to $81, both of which are 6-week highs. 

Nat Gas briefly flirted with $3 on Friday, but has pulled back since to $2.75. Just can't seem to break out, been pretty much stuck between $1.75 and $3.25 for going on 18 months now.

Lee Corso'ed

[Ted Dantzler 149]

Hello Texas oil barons, it's an old big12 friend here with some questions. 

Is there something new going on in NW Kansas? My parents have owned the grandparents old place by Colby KS for 5+ years and just had a landman knock on their door in KC inquiring about leasing the land. Basic conditions seem to be $20 an acre upfront for the right to drill for 3 years and then 1/8 of the oil if they find any. Here is the company that would eventually end up with the rights https://www.jfredhambrightinc.com/

Is this a pretty standard lease agreement? We would have an attorney look over it before signing anything but just figured I'd see what the shaggy collective has to say. 

This map shows a record of every well in KS and while there are none immediately next to our land there are a couple about 2-3 miles away that average around 2k bbls per year. 

https://maps.kgs.ku.edu/oilgas/index.html 

 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

Tell him to pound sand

[StassneyHorn 6573]

Fill ‘er up

US seeks up to 3 million barrels of oil for emergency reserve

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-announces-solicitation-up-3-million-barrels-oil-delivery-spr-2024-10-28/

[UT_OB1 2213]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Tell him to pound sand

What would more reasonable numbers be on something like that?

[Storm the Field 5291]

12 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

What would more reasonable numbers be on something like that?

How many acres?

No experience with KS, but it looks like Colby is on the outskirts of one the more active oil plays in the state. 

2 decades in this business I have never once heard of a modern day lease bonus figure that low. Like $20/acre is something I'd expect to see in a lease taken 40+ years ago. 

3 year term is pretty standard. 1/8 is basically the bare minimum default royalty in the absence of negotiation. 

 

Edited October 29 by Storm the Field

[billfromlaketravis 11445]

On 10/28/2024 at 6:34 PM, Ted Dantzler said:

Hello Texas oil barons, it's an old big12 friend here with some questions. 

Is there something new going on in NW Kansas? My parents have owned the grandparents old place by Colby KS for 5+ years and just had a landman knock on their door in KC inquiring about leasing the land. Basic conditions seem to be $20 an acre upfront for the right to drill for 3 years and then 1/8 of the oil if they find any. Here is the company that would eventually end up with the rights https://www.jfredhambrightinc.com/

Is this a pretty standard lease agreement? We would have an attorney look over it before signing anything but just figured I'd see what the shaggy collective has to say. 

This map shows a record of every well in KS and while there are none immediately next to our land there are a couple about 2-3 miles away that average around 2k bbls per year. 

https://maps.kgs.ku.edu/oilgas/index.html 

 

$500-$1000 per net acre seems to be the going rate in Colorado. 3 year term, 2 year extension. Around 20% royalty. The extension payment should be the same as the original bonus. The more contiguous acreage, the better the rock, the higher the bonus and royalty. 
 

The link you provided is for a land broker. Things are pretty tight for land brokers at all times, so I doubt they’re leasing on spec and trying to sell it later. They’re almost certainly leasing for a much larger O&G company. It’s an old trick. If the landowners find out they’re taking the lease for a company like Chevron, they’re going to ask for more money.
 

I don’t think you have much leverage, but I’d compare notes with your neighbors. Royalty, bonus, and production costs are all things neighbors should share and discuss. 

I’d hire a Kansas landman for a flat rate to review your lease. I doubt attorneys in your area would have much knowledge of a lease form. Be very careful with hourly rates. I’ve been burned before. Guy didn’t know shit, and spent 2 weeks researching a bullshit opinion. 
 

Just make sure there are lease provisions that requires them to drill. I’d ask for a separate lease tract provision (SLT). It’s cleaner than pughs. I doubt you want to track production at different depths. If they drill, you can monitor production on the state oil and gas site. They should have administrative people that can walk you through it.  Basically with SLT, the spacing unit for each well functions as its own lease. If a well doesn’t produce for 60 days to a year, it releases that acreage and you can lease it again.
 

And if they want put anything on your property that isn’t a wellhead, you need to compensated for it. If you can’t use part of your property because of their operations, you need to get paid. 
 

Be patient. If they’re wildcatting it might take them the full 5 years to drill. 
 

Good luck. 

[Don Johnson 4752]

At $20/acre, there's no downside to holding out.  Even if nothing ever comes from the project, its not like you missed out on big $.

[Storm the Field 5291]

5 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

At $20/acre, there's no downside to holding out.  Even if nothing ever comes from the project, its not like you missed out on big $.

Was the landman just gonna pull out his wallet and pay for the lease in cash?

[Armybrat 40818]

In McKenzie County, North Dakota we got $4,500/acre for a 160 acre plot, plus 1/5 royalty. 5 year lease. 
But that’s on the higher end in the Bakken’s better play areas.
 

[babysdaddy 2719]

 

[Ted Dantzler 149]

Thanks for the input, definitely looks like we should be looking for more. My dad's going out there next week to talk to some neighbors etc to see if he can get any details of what is standard out there. For reference its 620 acres of pasture/cropland.