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Hey Oil Barons.......


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4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Rough day in the markets, but energy commodities are having fun. 

WTI +3.6% to $76.56 (3 month high)

Natty +7.4% to $3.98 (highest close since 1/3/23)

I wonder how sustainable each commodity is. Trump has demonstrated a proactive nature with tamping crude down, but also is protectionist and heavy-handed with respect to other oil-producing nations. So I really don’t know. Gas fundamentals have totally changed in the last 12 months, but I fear we need a colder winter. Or rather a longer winter that has been colder relative to the last two. Anyone have insights here?

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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Can we please set that on cruise control for a couple of years?

¡Imposible! 

59 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Natty at $4.13 is highest price in 743 days, dating back to $4.17 on 1/4/23, which was also the last time that its price started with a 4.

It’s crazy we haven’t closed at above $4 in the last month. We’ve crossed it intraday crossed it several times. 

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4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

What’s up with NG today?

Was down about 1% until noon and then rocketed up 6% in the next hour. 

From my exhaustive research (i. e. searching tweets for "nat gas") it looks like the 12z Euro weather model that came out mid-day was on the very cold side in regards to this upcoming arctic blast. Also, there was a very large inventory drawdown reported for last week. 13th largest weekly drawdown of all time, to be exact. Lot of predictions that next week's report of this week's drawdown will be in the Top 5.

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3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Was down about 1% until noon and then rocketed up 6% in the next hour. 

From my exhaustive research (i. e. searching tweets for "nat gas") it looks like the 12z Euro weather model that came out mid-day was on the very cold side in regards to this upcoming arctic blast. Also, there was a very large inventory drawdown reported for last week. 13th largest weekly drawdown of all time, to be exact. Lot of predictions that next week's report of this week's drawdown will be in the Top 5.

Thank you brotha.  I presumed weather related but wasn’t sure because of the sharp midday increase. I’ll take it. 

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NG has been even more volatile than its own high standards.  doesnt feel like the recent $0.30+/mmbtu intraday swings are due to natural change in physical market. feels like some CTAS/traders getting blown out. 

 

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2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Thanks Trump! I knew you’d do this, as you did in 2019. My industry overwhelmingly supported you. I got strange looks any time I was open about why I did not. This is why. 

In my experience, while folks in O&G tend to be pretty conservative, there seems to be a good amount that are more "Normie Republican" and not necessarily big fans of Trump. A lot depends on what specific O&G job you have, where you live, where you went to school...etc.

A land broker from Louisiana or a rig-hand in the Permian is way more likely to be MAGA than a Houston finance guy that went to UT undergrad or a title attorney that went to law school at UH. I know plenty of people on the professional side of the industry that are centrist Dems or even borderline leftists.

 

Edited by Storm the Field
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On 1/23/2025 at 11:44 AM, Storm the Field said:

 

The Saudis flipping a switch to dramatically increase production is the greatest urban legend in O&G. They’ve lied for decades on daily production and reserves because they have no oversight. I’ll bet all of their production decreases coincided with desperately needed maintenance projects. 
 

It’s all talk to move markets. Hopefully Trump knows they’re full of shit.

Any land brokers getting waxed right now due to wind permits getting canceled? My old broker bet pretty big on a renewable projects, and they were always operating paycheck to paycheck, so I’d imagine they’re feeling the pain.

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18 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Saudis flipping a switch to dramatically increase production is the greatest urban legend in O&G. They’ve lied for decades on daily production and reserves because they have no oversight. I’ll bet all of their production decreases coincided with desperately needed maintenance projects. 
 

It’s all talk to move markets. Hopefully Trump knows they’re full of shit.

Any land brokers getting waxed right now due to wind permits getting canceled? My old broker bet pretty big on a renewable projects, and they were always operating paycheck to paycheck, so I’d imagine they’re feeling the pain.

Michael Jordan Lol GIF

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25 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Michael Jordan Lol GIF

If Rex Tillerson believes that, Trump at the very least is aware of the possibility. Bill is talking about Matt Simmons’ theories, which isn’t exactly mainstream, but are theories a lot of people I respect absolutely believe. I think the Saudis have a lot of short term capability, but they can’t be the swing producer that a lot of people that are somewhat ignorant of the industry think they can be in the long term or even midterm. I think Rex (and subsequently other experts Trump will no doubt have consulted) would be one of those people and therefore Trump knows this. 

The Saudis cannot replace what the US will lose with our declining shale basins in the coming years for long. I suspect Trump knows this and will do what he can do for the next 4 years to keep prices reasonable. And, to his credit, it’s working thus far. I doubt it can for 4 years, but he’ll fight hard to keep them low and blame other countries if he can’t. Good for lower gasoline prices, but this is the oil barons thread, not the populist politics thread. 

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The timing is interesting. If Trump kills solar, and wind for at least 4 years in the middle of the AI Revolution, big tech will have to use natural gas. I think restarting nuclear plants is going to take too long. It could work long term, but they need power yesterday.

The infamously green NextEra is speaking publicly about ramping up their gas production, so they must see it coming. 

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The timing is interesting. If Trump kills solar, and wind for at least 4 years in the middle of the AI Revolution, big tech will have to use natural gas. I think restarting nuclear plants is going to take too long. It could work long term, but they need power yesterday.

The infamously green NextEra is speaking publicly about ramping up their gas production, so they must see it coming. 

 

that not enough power for AI

id be curious if they actually build some new nuke plants 

does a wind farm on land require a federal permit ?

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5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

that not enough power for AI

id be curious if they actually build some new nuke plants 

does a wind farm on land require a federal permit ?

If it’s federal land, yes. That’ll kill many new offshore wind projects and a lot of projects west and north of Texas. 
 

Wind’s margins are pretty thin. I doubt there are many, if any companies, with enough federal permits in inventory for 4 years. 

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17 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Good for lower gasoline prices, but this is the oil barons thread, not the populist politics thread. 

Haha.  This is a common comment when talking to mom. "Gas prices are coming down! Oh, sorry, I forget we want high gas prices!" (Old people love to talk gas price and weather.)

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