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Posted
6 minutes ago, swraith said:

January weather going to be cold for a huge chunk of the United States. 

What I read this morning, the next 7-14 days are really a factor, but early Feb moreso. Either way it’s welcome news. 

Posted
On 12/30/2024 at 9:08 AM, Storm the Field said:

Holy crap. Natty up almost 24% so far this morning. $3.39 -> $4.19

94ee0.gif

Pulled back later in the day and closed at a still respectable $3.93 (+16%). Already down 6% this morning to $3.70. 

Glad I'm not a trader. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

94ee0.gif

Pulled back later in the day and closed at a still respectable $3.93 (+16%). Already down 6% this morning to $3.70. 

Glad I'm not a trader. 

Those fuckers make significant $ on this volatility. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Rough day in the markets, but energy commodities are having fun. 

WTI +3.6% to $76.56 (3 month high)

Natty +7.4% to $3.98 (highest close since 1/3/23)

I wonder how sustainable each commodity is. Trump has demonstrated a proactive nature with tamping crude down, but also is protectionist and heavy-handed with respect to other oil-producing nations. So I really don’t know. Gas fundamentals have totally changed in the last 12 months, but I fear we need a colder winter. Or rather a longer winter that has been colder relative to the last two. Anyone have insights here?

Posted
1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Can we please set that on cruise control for a couple of years?

¡Imposible! 

59 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Natty at $4.13 is highest price in 743 days, dating back to $4.17 on 1/4/23, which was also the last time that its price started with a 4.

It’s crazy we haven’t closed at above $4 in the last month. We’ve crossed it intraday crossed it several times. 

Posted
4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

What’s up with NG today?

Was down about 1% until noon and then rocketed up 6% in the next hour. 

From my exhaustive research (i. e. searching tweets for "nat gas") it looks like the 12z Euro weather model that came out mid-day was on the very cold side in regards to this upcoming arctic blast. Also, there was a very large inventory drawdown reported for last week. 13th largest weekly drawdown of all time, to be exact. Lot of predictions that next week's report of this week's drawdown will be in the Top 5.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Was down about 1% until noon and then rocketed up 6% in the next hour. 

From my exhaustive research (i. e. searching tweets for "nat gas") it looks like the 12z Euro weather model that came out mid-day was on the very cold side in regards to this upcoming arctic blast. Also, there was a very large inventory drawdown reported for last week. 13th largest weekly drawdown of all time, to be exact. Lot of predictions that next week's report of this week's drawdown will be in the Top 5.

Thank you brotha.  I presumed weather related but wasn’t sure because of the sharp midday increase. I’ll take it. 

Posted

NG has been even more volatile than its own high standards.  doesnt feel like the recent $0.30+/mmbtu intraday swings are due to natural change in physical market. feels like some CTAS/traders getting blown out. 

 

Posted
Quote

US President Trump at Davos: "I'm going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil. You have to bring it down. Which frankly, I was surprised they didn't do before the election [...] With oil prices going down, I'll demand that interest rates drop"

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

 

Thanks Trump! I knew you’d do this, as you did in 2019. My industry overwhelmingly supported you. I got strange looks any time I was open about why I did not. This is why. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Thanks Trump! I knew you’d do this, as you did in 2019. My industry overwhelmingly supported you. I got strange looks any time I was open about why I did not. This is why. 

In my experience, while folks in O&G tend to be pretty conservative, there seems to be a good amount that are more "Normie Republican" and not necessarily big fans of Trump. A lot depends on what specific O&G job you have, where you live, where you went to school...etc.

A land broker from Louisiana or a rig-hand in the Permian is way more likely to be MAGA than a Houston finance guy that went to UT undergrad or a title attorney that went to law school at UH. I know plenty of people on the professional side of the industry that are centrist Dems or even borderline leftists.

 

Edited by Storm the Field
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Posted
On 1/23/2025 at 11:44 AM, Storm the Field said:

 

The Saudis flipping a switch to dramatically increase production is the greatest urban legend in O&G. They’ve lied for decades on daily production and reserves because they have no oversight. I’ll bet all of their production decreases coincided with desperately needed maintenance projects. 
 

It’s all talk to move markets. Hopefully Trump knows they’re full of shit.

Any land brokers getting waxed right now due to wind permits getting canceled? My old broker bet pretty big on a renewable projects, and they were always operating paycheck to paycheck, so I’d imagine they’re feeling the pain.

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Posted
18 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Saudis flipping a switch to dramatically increase production is the greatest urban legend in O&G. They’ve lied for decades on daily production and reserves because they have no oversight. I’ll bet all of their production decreases coincided with desperately needed maintenance projects. 
 

It’s all talk to move markets. Hopefully Trump knows they’re full of shit.

Any land brokers getting waxed right now due to wind permits getting canceled? My old broker bet pretty big on a renewable projects, and they were always operating paycheck to paycheck, so I’d imagine they’re feeling the pain.

Michael Jordan Lol GIF

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Michael Jordan Lol GIF

If Rex Tillerson believes that, Trump at the very least is aware of the possibility. Bill is talking about Matt Simmons’ theories, which isn’t exactly mainstream, but are theories a lot of people I respect absolutely believe. I think the Saudis have a lot of short term capability, but they can’t be the swing producer that a lot of people that are somewhat ignorant of the industry think they can be in the long term or even midterm. I think Rex (and subsequently other experts Trump will no doubt have consulted) would be one of those people and therefore Trump knows this. 

The Saudis cannot replace what the US will lose with our declining shale basins in the coming years for long. I suspect Trump knows this and will do what he can do for the next 4 years to keep prices reasonable. And, to his credit, it’s working thus far. I doubt it can for 4 years, but he’ll fight hard to keep them low and blame other countries if he can’t. Good for lower gasoline prices, but this is the oil barons thread, not the populist politics thread. 

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Posted

The timing is interesting. If Trump kills solar, and wind for at least 4 years in the middle of the AI Revolution, big tech will have to use natural gas. I think restarting nuclear plants is going to take too long. It could work long term, but they need power yesterday.

The infamously green NextEra is speaking publicly about ramping up their gas production, so they must see it coming. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The timing is interesting. If Trump kills solar, and wind for at least 4 years in the middle of the AI Revolution, big tech will have to use natural gas. I think restarting nuclear plants is going to take too long. It could work long term, but they need power yesterday.

The infamously green NextEra is speaking publicly about ramping up their gas production, so they must see it coming. 

 

that not enough power for AI

id be curious if they actually build some new nuke plants 

does a wind farm on land require a federal permit ?

Posted
5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

that not enough power for AI

id be curious if they actually build some new nuke plants 

does a wind farm on land require a federal permit ?

If it’s federal land, yes. That’ll kill many new offshore wind projects and a lot of projects west and north of Texas. 
 

Wind’s margins are pretty thin. I doubt there are many, if any companies, with enough federal permits in inventory for 4 years. 

Posted
17 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Good for lower gasoline prices, but this is the oil barons thread, not the populist politics thread. 

Haha.  This is a common comment when talking to mom. "Gas prices are coming down! Oh, sorry, I forget we want high gas prices!" (Old people love to talk gas price and weather.)

Posted
19 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

And, to his credit, it’s working thus far. I doubt it can for 4 years, but he’ll fight hard to keep them low and blame other countries if he can’t.

"Thus far" meaning (checks notes), nine days.  Nothing to worry about.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

"Thus far" meaning (checks notes), nine days.  Nothing to worry about.

He single-handedly moved the front month contract about $8 downward in the last 15 days. image.gif.7b755bd0114949b1632286273faa8163.gif

Edited by Rex Kramer
Posted
9 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

$75 is about the sweet spot. Everybody’s making money, no layoffs unless you work for BP or Shell in the US, and gas is $2.50.

Both are decent prices related to the preceding 10 years. They’re too low for the next 10. 

Posted
9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Do your important work, get some exercise, and go to bed at a decent time tonight and tomorrow. NAPE approaches on Wednesday.

Heading down early tomorrow afternoon for a few Tuesday night receptions

Posted (edited)
On 2/3/2025 at 7:59 PM, Rex Kramer said:

Heading down early tomorrow afternoon for a few Tuesday night receptions

Hah, not me. Boss was asking if anyone wanted to go a landman happy hour thing last night.  I emphatically declined.

I've got 2 separate parties this evening that will keep me busy from like six to midnight, and then my firm's party tomorrow night that typically runs pretty late. I'm going to be barely running on fumes by the time I lurch my way out of an Uber towards my front door tomorrow night. I might not survive to see the weekend if I started NAPE week on Tuesday.

Edited by Storm the Field
Posted (edited)

Thoughts and prayers. A guy I know finalized his divorce yesterday and is chasing it with going out for NAPE tonight.

No arrest, safe place to sleep would be huge wins. No Friday HR call is probably a bridge too far. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
Posted

One of my least favorite annual traditions, I'm sitting in my office hungover, just staring at the clock until I go drive my truck downtown to pick up our shit from the NAPE booth and lug it back to our building. 363 days until next time.

Oh well, it beats actually having to go work a shift at GRB.

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