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Posted
4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

curious the saudis long game here 

has to be regain market share ?

Doubtful. I’m not sure they can. I think they’ll spearhead continuance of cuts. Trump won’t be able to tamp down prices forever. US shale oil will start to irreversibly decline imminently. And demand isn’t going anywhere. 

Posted
14 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Doubtful. I’m not sure they can. I think they’ll spearhead continuance of cuts. Trump won’t be able to tamp down prices forever. US shale oil will start to irreversibly decline imminently. And demand isn’t going anywhere. 

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

Sure. But there's still a lot more capex required to refrac all those wells. There isn't an endless supply of good rock that can be drained economically at <$65 oil.

Rex doesn't know shit about fuck most of the time, but he's definitely been right on the twilight in the desert coming for the Permian/US Shale oil sooner than later.

Posted
15 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Sure. But there's still a lot more capex required to refrac all those wells. There isn't an endless supply of good rock that can be drained economically at <$65 oil.

Rex doesn't know shit about fuck most of the time, but he's definitely been right on the twilight in the desert coming for the Permian/US Shale oil sooner than later.

I've been watching this documentary called "Landman" and it shows that if you have a old vertical stripper well pumping a few barrels a day all you need to do is remove all the casing, preferably in just a few hours mostly at night, and you will be producing a couple hundred barrels a day no problem.

  • Haha 2
Posted
39 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I dunno about the shale…what with re-fracing technology improving over time the production in some benches could hold somewhat steadier after the initial decline. 
So I heard.

 

There is no way re-frac’ing can outstrip the massive production declines. I think your view is one a lot of people have, and respectfully, it’s just inaccurate. 

17 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Sure. But there's still a lot more capex required to refrac all those wells. There isn't an endless supply of good rock that can be drained economically at <$65 oil.

Rex doesn't know shit about fuck most of the time, but he's definitely been right on the twilight in the desert coming for the Permian/US Shale oil sooner than later.

I know a lot of shit about a lot of fuck. 

  • Haha 1
Posted

So does total production fall off a cliff in the Permian or peak and start a long slow decline over the next 20 years?  Has it peaked already?  I mean, that's the age old question.

Posted (edited)

It's actually unbelievable unfathomable where we and the world would be now if not for the US shale boom beginning in the Barnett in the 90's.

Edited by CycleTex87
Posted
11 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

So does total production fall off a cliff in the Permian or peak and start a long slow decline over the next 20 years?  Has it peaked already?  I mean, that's the age old question.

I don’t think it falls off a cliff but it’ll decline gradually over time. But once it peaks, it’ll be really hard to have any monthly increase without it being anomalous. It’ll drive discussion and markets, and you’ll hear about Peak Oil all over again.

It reduced 0.9% from October 2024 to November 2024 (in terms of daily production). Notably, Texas (down 1.2%) and New Mexico (down 1.8%) drove the overall decrease, down a combined 108,000 bopd. Some of that could’ve been price related, but I don’t think so, and it wasn’t weather related. I don’t think we can say definitively it’s peaked. Need more data. 

9 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

It's actually unbelievable unfathomable where we and the world would be now if not for the US shale boom beginning in the Barnett in the 90's.

Late 90s. Mitchell didn’t really crack the code until early 2000s. I’ll tell you where we’d be: up shit creek with expensive-as-fuck energy costs. 

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